June 17, 2019

After the classification of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist group.. What is its impact?

After the Iranian revolution, which was described by the earthquake that struck Iran, there was a view on the scene in the countries of the region of the possibility that this earthquake hits the countries of the region, especially where the followers of the Shiite religion, a view that crystallized and became clearer after the talk began in Tehran about “The export of the revolution”, while there were different coveting and rosy debates on how to export it. But after the Revolutionary Guards became an integrated ideological, economic, and economic institution in Iran, there was a clear and clear answer to all these questions.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is not an alternative to the Iranian army or the shadow army, as some believe. It is a force that has its own missions, which are concentrated in three directions: the first is maintaining the regime as the elite forces that were meticulously prepared in all respects; Which aims at the universality of the ruling regime in Iran and the starting point will be from the countries where the Shiites are present, so that there will be a starting point for the Islamic world in general. The third is to start after controlling the countries where the Shiites are in the majority countries And the second was the establishment of Sunni political organizations and organizations or the attempt to absorb and contain active Sunni forces on the ground and coordinate with them towards working to impose hegemony over that country. .

The rule of the Faqih without guards Revolutionary wolf without teeth

What has been done and done by the ruling regime in Iran has all been based on the IRGC and on its own because there was nothing. The Iranian project is entirely dependent on the IRGC, and for it, the project can never be activated and embodied. The IRGC, now the de facto ruler of Iran , Because it is an extension of the Wali al-Faqih and represents his strength as well as the strength of conservatism, and perhaps the arrival of members of the Revolutionary Guards to high positions in different parts of the Iranian regime and the presence of a large number of personalities prepared in this institution and is ready to take on other positions, Represents the aorta of the aorta M Iranian and the reliance on it is limitless because, without the Revolutionary Guard, the regime of the mandate of the jurist will become a wolf without tusks and claws!

Israel and Turkey are a red line of the Revolutionary Guards

The most important observation that must be taken into consideration is that the IRGC does not behave childishly or emotionally, without taking into consideration the effects, repercussions and repercussions of what it is doing. Therefore, for example, it avoids taking steps that are greater and beyond reasonable limits Against two important forces in the Middle East, Israel and Turkey, in order to ensure the Iranian project and to ensure that the threats are avoided or avoided as far as possible until the right moment.

After its goals are exposed, its classification eliminates its ambitions

The US tendency to classify Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization appears to be clear after the extremely dangerous tasks of the Revolutionary Guards, which are far beyond Iran’s borders and that they pose no threat and potential threat, but a threat to peace, security and stability in the region. The classification of the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization will have significant implications for Iran and the countries of the region.

1 – Terrorist classification .. Changes in the equations of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards inside

Iran, the IRGC dominates one-third of Iran’s economy, its ranking on the terrorism list will affect its economy and create problems as it will create other economic problems in Iran’s economy, which is beset by acute problems and crises. One of the most important high-level political posts in various parts of the system, which will automatically affect the classification and push Tehran to search for alternatives, and the task of security in the system is held by the Revolutionary Guard specifically, which will be shaken by opening doors to the shutters of various possibilities and options that do not The Revolutionary Guard is the most important dam in the reformist movement in its way to confront the conservative trend and to define its largest role in the country. It is considered the supreme leader’s leaf in the face of its adversaries internally, regionally and even internationally, and its classification in the list of terrorist organizations means 6 in fact trim the nails of the Supreme Guide and reduce the role and impact depending on the decline and weakening the role of the Revolutionary Guards.

2 – The political equations in the region are going to reformulate … after the post-end of the hegemony of the Revolutionary Guards

At the regional level, the impact of this classification will be very large and could be prepared to rewrite the political equations in countries where the IRGC has influence.

1 – Hezbollah most affected by the classification of the Revolutionary Guard terrorist organization

Lebanon, Hezbollah, which depends entirely on what we get from Tehran through the Revolutionary Guard networks, and even that the activities and economic movements of this party is being carried out with the coordination and the networks of the Revolutionary Guard, one must pay attention to a very important point is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard does not leave The freedom of movement of the absolute arms in the countries of the region, but is often identified by the vaccination elements in the joints sensitive and vital and Hezbollah, which depends on the Iranian regime in the implementation and completion of many of his plans will become very difficult work and may face serious problems, especially in terms of managing the affairs of its members Grant W living, along with the weakening party it will call and urges the Lebanese political forces to move in order to recover what it has acquired the role and status and influence at their expense.

2 – Popular popular militias are approaching their fate black

In Iraq, popular militia groups that boast publicly that they are under the direction of Qassim Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, and even that many of its leaders have publicly declared that these militias are working to implement the Khomeini project in Iraq and the region, The Revolutionary Guards are among the terrorist organizations that would make Qasim Soleimani himself a potential target, especially since the latter is the architect of the political and security situation in Iraq and the “stick” with the outsiders or opponents of the Iranian project in Iraq. These militias, Pal An economy that will inevitably be affected by this decision, especially since there is a deep resentment and discontent among the Iraqi people about the role of these militias even within the Shiite regions themselves, especially as they exaggerate their excessive dependence on Tehran.

3 – Houthis to further decline in light of the restrictions on the movement of the Revolutionary Guards

In Yemen, the Huthis will either go back or retreat further until they find themselves forced to make painful concessions that they did not think of. All that comes to them comes from the Revolutionary Guard networks, and determining the role and effectiveness of these networks will make the Houthis weaker than before.

4 – Gulf after his efforts to control the Gulf .. Dreams of the Revolutionary Guards are back in the wind

In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where the IRGC has sought to activate its role there and establish a suitable base and ground, its efforts will be undermined by the decline of the various capabilities of the IRGC. In general, this will push the rejection of the Iranian role and influence and push for greater steps to define The role and movement of the arms of Tehran.

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