China has captured key locations inside Ladakh confirmed by satellite images | Page 3 | World Defense

China has captured key locations inside Ladakh confirmed by satellite images

Zulu

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@TomCat was thinking to write more regarding Pakistan options than i find that good piece by Jan Achakzai again he covers nearly all major point till today until new developments changes scenarios (Jan Achakzai / جان اچکزئی (@Jan_Achakzai) | Twitter)

THREAD:

#China-#India stand-off at Laddakh & consequences 4 #Pakistan

What I think of new tension?

??’s move into #Laddakh & establishing a hold over Galwan river valley comes after ?? coerced Nepal by encroaching it’s border territory & reviving Kalapani dispute.

1/
China says that #India actually encroached in its territory. The similar holding over of river valley led to 1962 war between India and China.

What strategic compulsion weighed in behind the Chinese move?

A) What immediate reasons?

2/
1. ?? ’s aggressive behaviour re Nepal reviving Kalapani dispute, indirectly implicated ??-es interest.

2. Post Aug 5 annexation of IOK w/ ??-n intention 2 turn Laddakh into union territory rattled ?? that ?? is materially changing status of th region contested by??& ??.

3/
3. ?? ’s perception of its tactical invulnerability on Laddakh front constitutes best pressure point 2 send a message to ??;

4. ?? rightly read lack of will in Delhi 2 pay back kinetically given its weakness re, economy, Corona & IOK on boil, hence afforded perfect chance;

4/
B) What is constant?

♠️?? unlikely seek a full fledged fight w/ ?? due 2
-historical reasons—1962 defeat;
-its unpreparedness;
-economic differential w/ ??.

♠️?? will also eschew escalating given its pic picture imperatives: economic revival; post Corona order etc.

5/
C) What ?? can do?

♦️?? has less options kinetically;

♦️since ?? seeks 2 control spread of tension, any escalation may have unintended consequences;

♦️best pressure point 4 ?? is South China Sea but it is unthinkable 2 breach into high militarised zone-a red line for ??;

6/
♦️Another region is Indian Ocean to coerce Beijing; but it is a disproportionate response Delhi would think twice;

♦️The best option is non-kinetic response in Indo-Pacific as both US & Delhi seek to checkmate Beijing along w/ other Quads members.

7/
♦️As a bottom line, India does not have many palatable options except to live w/ altered statuesque—

it means constant Beijing pressure on #Gallwan river valley & putting an end 2 delusional aspirations of making Laddakh a union territory.

8/
D) What India would seek?

(i) India will seek #US support by posing a victim of Chinese aggression;

(ii) Delhi will further cement defence cooperation w/ Washington;

(iii) #India will expedite decoupling & take parallel economic measures....

9/
....?? is stepping back from digital #BRI like Alibaba, Huawei,ZTE etc; launched BNSL4G; investment in Reliance Joi;
2 trade policy—one 4 China other 4 rest —codified as “Atam Nirbhar Bharat”;

Pharmaceuticals 2 revisit value chain; new barriers towards ??-es investment;

10/
(iv) #Delhi’s military & strategic establishment would exponentially enhance security budget;

E) Repercussions 4 #Pakistan?

Kinetic:

? On the positive, India would think twice executing its rhetorics of taking GB due 2 Chinese vital interest in #CPEC going through GB.

11/
? As Delhi will rightly read Beijing’s intention (i.e, Laddakh move) which is clear: in case of India’s Kalapani incursion or any Laddakh breach or any potential GB aggression, China will not set idle;

? On the negative side; India after humiliating Laddakh episode.....

12/
....would like 2 go 4 fall-back option e.g, attack Pakistan 2 appease its domestic public opinion & assuage prestige loss;

? ?? after Balakot & August 5 IOK annexation, believes Pakistan may have no will to escalate hence can give space 4 kinetic action of its choosing;

13/
? IOK is boiling at unacceptable cost 4 Delhi so it may be the best opportunity 2 establish a narrative of Pakistan going proxy in #IOK yet again.

Thus it is right time 2 attack ??, as Delhi’s thinking goes.

?Post Corona world & US leadership retrenchment give ?? .....
14/
.....a perfect alibi 2 mount a kinetic response against??;

?CPEC likely further be targeted;

? ?? was facing hybrid warfare by ?? but now it has unpalatable choice: risk more ??-n aggressions into its territory or establish new deterrence by raising cost 4 ??.

15/ END
 

TomCat

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If they did go towards pakistan then I dont think Pakistan would sit around and watch one of its districts fall. Same goes for india, it would turn messy real fast. It isnt a turn by turn base game. There would be multiple fronts that would open up.
Yes,

I didn’t mention that but isn’t that obvious ?

We have been holding them off at these fronts for too long now, It would be a snailish mindset to not have derived a strategy for a possible future conflict and small scale advancements similar to Kargil.

Either way, Once Pak gets involved officially, Nothing much India could do except for threaten openly or launch offense on poor civilians of Srinagar/IOK
 

TomCat

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Next week ajit doval and his chinese counterpart meeting is important lets see what come out of it.
I just got a severe laughing attack when I read this line of yours,

Ask why is that ?

Upon multiple encounters with average Chinese people, as well as hearing stories about Chinese officers at borders especially those in active conflict with India. Even sometimes Chinese politicians do this thing as well.

“Apparently they upon summoned for some complain, Agree to the other party’s concerns and apologizes (China does), And then the meeting finishes”

Next day or later, The Chinese receives a call, other party says “I thought we had a deal, a day ago, But still your man are messing with us”, Chinese replies prolonging the argument unnecessarily and involving unnecessary arguments but not on topic, just for the other party to get pissed off.

So the meeting was nothing but a joke in which Chinese agreed to cooperate but after it, They went back to their own ways.

So in easy words Dheet Log

Mind you, Chinese people are very long thinkers, They generally have a plan ready for a long term and stick to their plans, Overseeing every hurdle in their way, Ignoring it regardless the extent.

Let’s see how it goes.

I hope something happens, Something good (worsen the situation for India) , That it gets delayed or even cancelled.
 

Scorpio

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#PakistanArmy troops shot down an Indian spying #quadcopter in Rakhchikri Sector along LOC.
The quadcopter had intruded 650 meters on Pakistan’s side of the #LOC.ISPR
FB_IMG_1590597858672.jpg
 

HRK

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India might try to pressurize China by going on a small scale offensive towards its Ally Pakistan
This what I was also thinking, but this approach would escalate the matter politically which India would like to avoid as it will against the Indian stance that Kashmir is internal matter of India but taking this route would mean India would make Kashmir a Trilateral issue if not an International issue, as of now two threats are genuine which might defuse the situation as per Indian POV

- High impact False Flag terrorist operation in Pakistan from Afghanistan using her proxy ISIS Khorasan [threat is genuine] even IK has hinted about this in his recent tweets, this will engage Pakistan internally

- High impact False Flag terrorist operation in India which could win India sympathies of the western world in result would increase pressure over China to freeze the issue, while India could also use this opportunity to malign Pakistan before FATF meeting in June or July this year ....
at these sectors to try to annex them and cut them off from both sides
Annexation any of the part of Pakistani administrative Kashmir and Northern Area might not be possible but Artillery and or Aerial attack on Skardu, Neelum Valley along limited encroachment are possible to threat the strategic values of these areas of CPEC so any of their operation here would Indirectly respond to China .....

Another sector where India could respond is working boundary where India could mount pressure from Jammu and Indian Punjab.
 

Scorpio

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Chinese army displaying their flag in #Galwan valley near #pangwan lake #Ladakh. As per National media #China pitched more than 100 tents & thousands of troops in #Galwan valley

FB_IMG_1590697537316.jpg
 

Scorpio

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This VIDEO from Pangong Tso region shows Indian AF jets patrolling the area. #India ⁦??⁩⁦

IAF's Mirage-2000 were scrambled today after PLAAF's J-11D activity was detected over "Pangong Tso" Region (Ladakh, China ??).

 
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Scorpio

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If you can read urdu, i just copy paste as it is
, but really classic and funny

?چین کے لیئے خطرے کی ٹلی???

انتہائی باخبر ذرائع سے معلوم ہوا ہے کہ بھارتی حکومت اور بھارتی افواج کی ہائی کمان کے اجلاس میں موجودہ صورتحال کے تناظر میں فیصلہ کیا گیا ہے کہ لداخ میں چینی فوج سے مقابلہ کرنے کے لئے بھارت کی سب سے مضبوط اور خطرناک ترین فورس کو بھیجا جائے۔
اس فورس کی طاقت کا اندازہ اس بات سے لگائیں کہ آج تک جس مشن پر بھی یہ فورس بھیجی گئی وہ کبھی ناکام نہیں ہوا۔

امریکہ جیسی سپر پاور بھی نام سن کر کانپ اٹھتی ہے.
پاکستانی سرحد پر کبھی حالات خراب ہوں یا کشمیر میں مجاہدین کے خلاف کاروائی درپیش ہو، یا پھر بیرونی دنیا میں بھارت کے مفادات کا تحفظ ہو اس فورس نے کبھی بھی بھارتی حکومت کو مایوس نہیں کیا۔
کہا جاتا ہے کہ اس فورس کا ایک جوان مخالف فورس کے 100 سے زائد جوانوں پر اکثر بھاری پڑتے دیکھا ہے...

اس خطرناک ترین فورس کا نام "بالی وڈ فورس" ہے۔ اور اسکی کمان اسوقت جنرل اکشے کمار، جنرل سنجے دت، جنرل سنی دیول، بریگیڈئیر انیل کپور، بریگیڈئیر اجے دیوگن، بریگیڈئیر جان ابراہم (سپیشل سروسز)، بریگیڈئیر سنیل شیٹھی، کرنل ابھجیت بچن، کرنل ہریتک روشن، میجر سدھارت مشرا جیسے مایہ ناز افسران کررہے ہیں۔
جبکہ حالات زیادہ سنگین ہونے کی صورت میں سنی___کی خدمات بھی لی جا سکتی ہے...
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