Iranian hand in attacks on Saudi Oil installations; a continued legacy of meddling in other countries | Page 7 | World Defense

Iranian hand in attacks on Saudi Oil installations; a continued legacy of meddling in other countries

Scorpion

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Scorpion

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BATMAN

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Clearly, Iran is looking for war. In such case, Iran must be having a further plan as well.
I think, KSA should not give to Iran what it wants, at least not immediately.
They shall think over what could be in Iranian mind. How are they planning to carry on the war with KSA, which will eventually be fought out of Iraq and Yemen.
 

Falcon29

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Clearly, Iran is looking for war. In such case, Iran must be having a further plan as well.
I think, KSA should not give to Iran what it wants, at least not immediately.
They shall think over what could be in Iranian mind. How are they planning to carry on the war with KSA, which will eventually be fought out of Iraq and Yemen.
KSA needs to focus on targeted assassinations. Via proxies or other means that won't be traced back to Saudi Arabia. First guy should be the head of the Houthi's.
 

Falcon29

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Saudi Arabia Considers the Consequences of a Strike on Iran

Two weeks after a devastating attack on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, one major question remains up in the air: What are the United States and Saudi Arabia going to do in response? Both are attempting to make a compelling case that Iran was directly culpable for the attacks. With proof of Iran's guilt, they can further isolate Tehran diplomatically, potentially paving the way for an aggressive response.

Saudi Arabia is caught between a rock and a hard place, however. If it does nothing, Iran will likely continue its aggression against the major U.S. partner in a bid to force the United States to ease its sanctions — after all, Riyadh can hardly attempt to de-escalate tensions with Tehran given that the latter's main target is the U.S. measures that the kingdom has little control over. But if Saudi Arabia strikes back at Iran to reestablish its deterrence, it would risk Iranian retaliation and put its vital energy infrastructure at serious risk of damage. With the pressure growing to make a move, Saudi Arabia might soon feel the need to take the plunge and inflict some sort of retribution on Iran.

The Calculations

The United States is deeply concerned about embroiling itself in another Middle Eastern conflict as it seeks to pivot its attention and resources to the great power competition with Russia and China. Accordingly, if one of Iran's opponents is going to initiate a military response to the Abqaiq and Khurais attacks, the Saudis themselves are likely to spearhead the operation. Indeed, when U.S. military advisers briefed U.S. President Donald Trump about the various options for an aggressive response, he insisted that Saudi Arabia would have to contribute to any retaliatory strike, CBS News reported.

Naturally, Saudi Arabia is hardly pleased at the prospect of finding itself — regardless of whether or not it strikes back at Iran — in a deeper conflict with Iran that would expose its energy export infrastructure to further crippling attacks. Saudi Arabia could calculate that retaliation in the form of greater economic pressure in coordination with its allies could be sufficient. Alternatively, it could seek to conduct an unconventional response, such as sabotage or a cyberattack (again in conjunction with the United States), as a counterstrike. Such action, however, is unlikely to succeed in dissuading Iran; in fact, it may even embolden it. In the end, Iran is lashing out in the first place because of the tremendous economic pressure it is facing. Given that, there is a growing possibility that Saudi Arabia could calculate that a military response is its only viable way forward — potentially devastating ramifications notwithstanding.

The Potential Targets

Of course, the Saudi government has no intention of starting a full-blown conflict with Iran, so it will have to walk a tight line between striking back in an impactful enough manner while minimizing the risk of escalation as much as possible. If the Saudi armed forces do decide to launch a retaliatory attack, they would have three general options. The first is to stage a directly proportional response to Iran's oil facility attack. In this scenario, Riyadh would target a key Iranian energy facility, likely the oil storage and processing facility on Kharg Island. The advantage of this one-off strike is that it could lower the risk of incurring human casualties while simultaneously hurting Tehran enough to prove effective.

The second option is for Saudi Arabia to strike directly at the base from which Iran launched the missiles and drones against Abqaiq and Khurais. According to U.S. intelligence, the Iranians launched their attack on Abqaiq from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ahvaz air base, which is close to the Iraqi border in southwestern Iran. Launching a strike against the facility would both send a powerful message and remain an entirely proportional response to the initial Iranian attack. The risk in this option, however, is that it is only marginally less inflammatory than a Saudi attack on Iranian energy facilities.

There is also a less provocative — but likely less effective — option open to the Saudis: hitting some of Iran's proxy forces in Iraq, Syria or elsewhere. While this attack might disrupt the operations of pro-Iran forces, such strikes would hardly deter Iran from future attacks, especially considering that the Saudis are already heavily involved in attacking at least one Iranian proxy, Yemen's Houthi rebels.

The Means

In terms of the Saudi ability to conduct such attacks, the primary and most effective means at Riyadh's disposal is its air force. Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in its air force over the years, acquiring large numbers of sophisticated and modern warplanes from the United States and Europe. To minimize the risk to their aircraft, the Saudis would likely seek to conduct any strikes on Iran with air-launched cruise missiles such as the Storm Shadows from their Tornado fighters. The Storm Shadows have a range in excess of 1,000 kilometers (625 miles), meaning the Saudi air force could launch them from well beyond the reach of Iranian air defenses.

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Can't access rest of article.
 

Khafee

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Saudi Arabia Considers the Consequences of a Strike on Iran

Two weeks after a devastating attack on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, one major question remains up in the air: What are the United States and Saudi Arabia going to do in response? Both are attempting to make a compelling case that Iran was directly culpable for the attacks. With proof of Iran's guilt, they can further isolate Tehran diplomatically, potentially paving the way for an aggressive response.

Saudi Arabia is caught between a rock and a hard place, however. If it does nothing, Iran will likely continue its aggression against the major U.S. partner in a bid to force the United States to ease its sanctions — after all, Riyadh can hardly attempt to de-escalate tensions with Tehran given that the latter's main target is the U.S. measures that the kingdom has little control over. But if Saudi Arabia strikes back at Iran to reestablish its deterrence, it would risk Iranian retaliation and put its vital energy infrastructure at serious risk of damage. With the pressure growing to make a move, Saudi Arabia might soon feel the need to take the plunge and inflict some sort of retribution on Iran.

The Calculations

The United States is deeply concerned about embroiling itself in another Middle Eastern conflict as it seeks to pivot its attention and resources to the great power competition with Russia and China. Accordingly, if one of Iran's opponents is going to initiate a military response to the Abqaiq and Khurais attacks, the Saudis themselves are likely to spearhead the operation. Indeed, when U.S. military advisers briefed U.S. President Donald Trump about the various options for an aggressive response, he insisted that Saudi Arabia would have to contribute to any retaliatory strike, CBS News reported.

Naturally, Saudi Arabia is hardly pleased at the prospect of finding itself — regardless of whether or not it strikes back at Iran — in a deeper conflict with Iran that would expose its energy export infrastructure to further crippling attacks. Saudi Arabia could calculate that retaliation in the form of greater economic pressure in coordination with its allies could be sufficient. Alternatively, it could seek to conduct an unconventional response, such as sabotage or a cyberattack (again in conjunction with the United States), as a counterstrike. Such action, however, is unlikely to succeed in dissuading Iran; in fact, it may even embolden it. In the end, Iran is lashing out in the first place because of the tremendous economic pressure it is facing. Given that, there is a growing possibility that Saudi Arabia could calculate that a military response is its only viable way forward — potentially devastating ramifications notwithstanding.

The Potential Targets

Of course, the Saudi government has no intention of starting a full-blown conflict with Iran, so it will have to walk a tight line between striking back in an impactful enough manner while minimizing the risk of escalation as much as possible. If the Saudi armed forces do decide to launch a retaliatory attack, they would have three general options. The first is to stage a directly proportional response to Iran's oil facility attack. In this scenario, Riyadh would target a key Iranian energy facility, likely the oil storage and processing facility on Kharg Island. The advantage of this one-off strike is that it could lower the risk of incurring human casualties while simultaneously hurting Tehran enough to prove effective.

The second option is for Saudi Arabia to strike directly at the base from which Iran launched the missiles and drones against Abqaiq and Khurais. According to U.S. intelligence, the Iranians launched their attack on Abqaiq from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ahvaz air base, which is close to the Iraqi border in southwestern Iran. Launching a strike against the facility would both send a powerful message and remain an entirely proportional response to the initial Iranian attack. The risk in this option, however, is that it is only marginally less inflammatory than a Saudi attack on Iranian energy facilities.

There is also a less provocative — but likely less effective — option open to the Saudis: hitting some of Iran's proxy forces in Iraq, Syria or elsewhere. While this attack might disrupt the operations of pro-Iran forces, such strikes would hardly deter Iran from future attacks, especially considering that the Saudis are already heavily involved in attacking at least one Iranian proxy, Yemen's Houthi rebels.

The Means

In terms of the Saudi ability to conduct such attacks, the primary and most effective means at Riyadh's disposal is its air force. Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in its air force over the years, acquiring large numbers of sophisticated and modern warplanes from the United States and Europe. To minimize the risk to their aircraft, the Saudis would likely seek to conduct any strikes on Iran with air-launched cruise missiles such as the Storm Shadows from their Tornado fighters. The Storm Shadows have a range in excess of 1,000 kilometers (625 miles), meaning the Saudi air force could launch them from well beyond the reach of Iranian air defenses.

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Can't access rest of article.
Stratfor is far from reality as possible. Just as an e.g. Storm Shadow is no where near 1,000kms.
 

Khafee

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Saudi Arabia restores full oil output after attacks, focused on Aramco IPO
October 3, 2019

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FILE PHOTO: Saudi Energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman speaks to the media after a news conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia September 17, 2019. REUTERS/Waleed Ali/File Photo

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia has fully restored oil output after attacks on its facilities last month and is now focused on the listing of state oil giant Saudi Aramco, its energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Thursday.

The kingdom’s crude oil production capacity is now 11.3 million barrels per day, he said, adding that the attacks, which halved the crude output of the world’s top exporter, were an attempt to ruin Saudi Arabia’s reputation as “a reliable, secure and dependable oil supplier”.

“We all rose to the challenge,” he told a Moscow energy conference.

The Sept. 14 attacks targeted the Abqaiq and the Khurais oil plants, causing a spike in oil prices, fires and damage and shutting down 5.7 million bpd of production, or more than 5% of global oil supply.

Saudi Arabia has managed to maintain supplies to customers at levels before the attacks by drawing from its huge oil inventories and offering other crude grades from other fields, Saudi officials have said.

“We have stabilized production capacity, we are at 11.3 (million bpd)... We still have the kit and the tools to overcome any future challenges,” Prince Abdulaziz said.

One of challenges for the kingdom now was the listing of Aramco, a centrepiece of Saudi Arabia’s plans to reform its economy and diversify away from oil, he added.

“We want to make sure that it is the most successful IPO,” he said, adding that the kingdom is working on diversifying its energy resources and adding both renewables and nuclear power.

“As far as I am concerned... we moved on, we flipped the page and (are) rising up to the new challenge,” he said.

Bankers from around 20 international and domestic financial institutions are now working a plan to sell about 1-2% of Aramco by 2020-2021 in Riyadh, before an international listing, sources have told Reuters.

Prince Abdulaziz, a veteran oil official and a son of the king, was last month named as the kingdom’s energy minister.

Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin, Dmitry Zhdannikov and Olesya Astakhova; Writing by Anastasia Teterevleva and Rania El Gamal; Editing by Jan Harvey and Alexander Smith
 

Falcon29

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@Scorpion

Do you still believe in the Iran-US/Israel feud? Have you ever seen a feud like this where US freely allows Iran to attack Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states? There are agreements behind the door, likely when the US/France sent Khomeini to Iran in 1979, to take over the region in attempt to destroy religion of Islam of by pushing Iranian perverted version of Islam.

The longer you guys believe in this fake 'struggle' between US and Iran the worse it gets. They are just outward enemies because that is part of the plot. To make Iranians appears anti-US and kill Sunni's/Arabs in region with Saudi Arabia being final destination with intent to corrupt religion of Islam completely. US, Israel and Iran are certainly working together for this goal. And some Arab leaders are being setup without realizing it. You always need to look at peoples intentions/aspirations to determine who is working with whom.
 

Scorpion

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Do you still believe in the Iran-US/Israel feud? Have you ever seen a feud like this where US freely allows Iran to attack Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states? There are agreements behind the door, likely when the US/France sent Khomeini to Iran in 1979, to take over the region in attempt to destroy religion of Islam of by pushing Iranian perverted version of Islam.

The longer you guys believe in this fake 'struggle' between US and Iran the worse it gets. They are just outward enemies because that is part of the plot. To make Iranians appears anti-US and kill Sunni's/Arabs in region with Saudi Arabia being final destination with intent to corrupt religion of Islam completely. US, Israel and Iran are certainly working together for this goal. And some Arab leaders are being setup without realizing it. You always need to look at peoples intentions/aspirations to determine who is working with whom.
I do yes. its crystal clear there is feud there but everyone wants to throw it at the other. Israel is happy with Iran weakening surrounding Arab countries. That is all.
 

Falcon29

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I do yes. its crystal clear there is feud there but everyone wants to throw it at the other. Israel is happy with Iran weakening surrounding Arab countries. That is all.
I agree with you, honestly I believe Iran and Israel see them going to war together as being beneficial to Arabs and thus both want to avoid it.
 

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