Libyan conflict news and discussion

[Scorpion]

For what I've understood at the moment Turkey have just send some advisers and a token mercenary force.

I don't think that Erdogan will seriously commit himself in Lybia, it is just an act of propaganda (mainly for internal consumption imho). He does not have the resorces to invest in a full proxy war against Egypt in Lybia. In order to be successful Turkey would have to project its forces, establishing air bases there, just as the russian did in Syria.
And at the moment I think they lack the resources and the political will to a full scale commitment; let's not forget that Turkey is still entangled in northern Syria, where they would have to remain until a suitable solution is worked out with Damascus and Moscow.

Eygpt and Algeria might get involved now in this matter which will make Erdogan turn the wheel back to Turkey.

 

[Falcon29]

For what I've understood at the moment Turkey have just send some advisers and a token mercenary force.

I don't think that Erdogan will seriously commit himself in Lybia, it is just an act of propaganda (mainly for internal consumption imho). He does not have the resorces to invest in a full proxy war against Egypt in Lybia. In order to be successful Turkey would have to project its forces, establishing air bases there, just as the russian did in Syria.
And at the moment I think they lack the resources and the political will to a full scale commitment; let's not forget that Turkey is still entangled in northern Syria, where they would have to remain until a suitable solution is worked out with Damascus and Moscow.

I agree with your analysis that they most likely won't commit since cost is too high and Libya isn't like where Syria where this is a sectarian split, it's more of a genuine civil war in which it's going to be difficult to attain long term commitments from the Libyans for a post war solution.

 

[Prince]

I don't think Algeria will be involved in Lybia, they are still busy with establishing a post-Bouteflika transition and maintaining internal stability vis à vis the protests against the pouvoir.

Also Algeria still has to keep an eye (military and polically) to its southern border given the Saharan-Sahelian instability and situation in northern mali still not completely resolved

Algerian operations in Lybia will probably be limited (if any) to avoid spillovers of the chaos to the country, but I doubt they will stronglt commit in supporting a faction.

 

[space cadet]

Two Turkish Frigates Appear Off Libya Amid Reports Of Troops And Armor Landing Ashore
These developments point to a major escalation in Turkey's involvement in the conflict following abortive attempts to broker a ceasefire.
BY JOSEPH TREVITHICKJANUARY 28, 2020

• THE WAR ZONE

VIA BOSPHORUS NAVAL NEWS
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Weeks after the Turkish government announced plans to send various forces to Libya to support that country's internationally recognized government, there are now indications that those deployments are well underway. Two Turkish Navy Gabya class frigates have appeared off the coast of Tripoli, the official Libyan capital, and there are reports emerging now that Turkish troops and heavy armor are arriving in that city, too.
Pictures showing the two warships sailing together near Tripoli first emerged online on Jan. 28, 2020. Unconfirmed reports about the arrival of Turkish forces began to appear on social media hours later. On Jan. 5, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had said in a televised interview that an unspecified number of Turkish troops would be heading to Libya soon and, the day after, revealed that members of the country's National Intelligence Organization, also referred to by the Turkish acronym MIT, were already in the country.

These announcements had followed an agreement between Erdogan and the head of the U.N.-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), Prime Minister Fayez Al Sarraj, last year, which included provisions for increased security cooperation and the possible deployment of Turkish Troops. The GNA has been locked in a civil conflict for years now with rogue general Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), which has its main base of operations in the Eastern Libyan city of Benghazi and enjoys the support of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Russia, among others.

It's not clear exactly which of the eight Gabya class frigates are presently operating off the coast of Libya or when they first arrived. There were reportsas early as December 27 indicating that a Turkish military mission in and around the country could include an unspecified number of warships.

TCG Goksu and TCG Gokova left their home ports at the end of December, bound for exercises off the coast Algeria that took place during the second week of January. They then remained in the Mediterranean to train with other NATO warships. TCG Gediz was also in the Mediterranean as of December 2019.

Among other things, the two frigates, ex-Oliver Hazard Perry class ships that Turkey originally obtained second-hand from the U.S. Navy, could provide badly needed additional air defenses against LNA combat jets, which regularly conduct strikes on targets in and around Tripoli. These vessels, which Turkey put through a deep refit program and now have eight-cell Mk 41 vertical launch system arrays capable of firing RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM), could also potentially engage larger drones that the LNA operates, as well.

There are also now unconfirmed reports that Turkey has followed up this naval deployment with the insertion of a contingent of troops that includes tanks. There is no word yet on the exact size of this force or the types of vehicles it may have brought with it. Regardless, if true, this would be a much more significant Turkish force that had been expected based on previous reports, which had indicated that any such contingent would be primarily special operations forces arriving to perform advisory functions.

At the same time, it is important to note that the term "tank" is routinely misapplied to various other types of armored vehicles and its possible that if a Turkish ground force is now deploying to Libya that it may be equipped with infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, or even mine-resistant armored trucks. There is also the potential that sources on the ground have mistaken the arrival of another shipment of Turkish-made vehicles, such as the BMC Kirpi mine-resistant truck, intended for the GNA for an actual active Turkish military intervention into the country.

Turkey has been sending light armored vehicles, as well as drones and other weapons and ammunition to the GNA since at least May 2019. Any new vehicles or other equipment could be bound for pro-Turkish Syrian forces who Erdogan government has been airlifting into the country to fight on behalf of authorities in Tripoli, as well.

The arrival of the two Gabya class frigates and the reports of a major Turkish troop deployment following an abortive bid by Turkey and Russia to push their respective sides in the conflict into a ceasefire. Haftar had swiftly rejected the calls for a halt in the fighting, but traveled to Moscow on Jan. 13, ostensibly to publicly agree to the terms of the Turkish-Russian plan. He left the next daywithout having signed the agreement.

There was hope that there might still be a ceasefire, with various world leaders subsequently convening in Germany for additional talks. Haftar and Sarraj both went to Berlin, but refused to meet with each other directly. By Jan. 27, it was clear that there would be no pause in the conflict in the immediate future.

"Over the last 10 days, numerous cargo and other flights have been observed landing at Libyan airports in the western and eastern parts of the country providing the parties with advanced weapons, armored vehicles, advisers and fighters," a statement from the U.N. Support Mission in Libya on Jan. 27, 2020, said. "The mission condemns these ongoing violations, which risk plunging the country into a renewed and intensified round of fighting."

Turkey now seems to be moving ahead with plans to reinforce the GNA's defenses in and around Tripoli to ensure that the status quo, at least, remains intact in the near future. However, a large and overt Turkish troop deployment could prompt similar moves from Haftars foreign partners, which could further inflame the situation. Egypt, of the parties already actively involved in the conflict in Libya, is in the midst of its own separate spat with Turkey over maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea, another controversial part of Erdogan's agreement last year with his Libyan counterpart Sarraj.

As the United Nations has already warned, Libya could, unfortunately, be looking at a new burst of fighting that could also have ramifications beyond the borders of the North African country.

 

[DigNap15]

I am not up with the merits of either side.
But you have to take your hat off to that warlord Hafta.
He controls just about the whole country other than Tripoli
Then the lame UN and th EU keep calling for peace talks and ceasefires.
Why would he when he just about has complete control of the whole country.
I am sure he could take Tripoli in a few days if he wanted to.
He probably does not want to cause many civilian casualties

 

[Scorpion]

I am not up with the merits of either side.
But you have to take your hat off to that warlord Hafta.
He controls just about the whole country other than Tripoli
Then the lame UN and th EU keep calling for peace talks and ceasefires.
Why would he when he just about has complete control of the whole country.
I am sure he could take Tripoli in a few days if he wanted to.
He probably does not want to cause many civilian casualties

The situation is complicated when you have political Islamists like the president of Turkey backing up his puppet in Tripoli. What Hafter needs is air support so if Eygpt can provide that then he can claim Triplioi in a matter of hours.

 

[Khafee]

Libya unity govt protests ‘French Rafale overflight’
01 May 2020
by Agence France-Presse

Libya’s UN-recognized government on Wednesday protested over what it said was an unauthorized overflight of territory under its control by a French-built Rafale warplane.

The Rafale and a refueling aircraft had flown over Misrata, 200 kilometers (120 miles) east of Tripoli, and Abu Grein, a combat zone further east, the Government of National Accord’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

“The French foreign ministry indicated to us that it would contact the French defence ministry and give us details,” the GNA said.

The GNA, which added it had voiced its “displeasure” over the incident, did not specify if the Rafale was operated by the French armed forces or another country’s military.

The North African nation has been gripped by chaos since the 2011 ouster and killing of longtime dictator Moamer Kadhafi, with rival administrations in the east and west vying for power.

France has repeatedly denied supporting eastern military strongman General Khalifa Haftar in his battle to dislodge the Tripoli-based GNA since April last year.

 

[Khafee]

Tripoli under fire
by Reuters -
11th May 2020

Mitiga Airport under fire.

A withering bombardment shook Tripoli on Sunday as eastern-based forces of Khalifa Haftar fought for new territory in the southern suburbs after losing ground around the city.

Adding to the misery of Tripoli residents, the main water supplier to north-west Libya said armed men stormed a facility, reducing supply.

“My father said we should be ready to leave at any moment the fighting last night was heavier than at any time before,” said a resident of Abu Salim district, near a front.

“We would leave to survive, but where can we go? We will be on the street. It’s hopeless,” the resident added.

Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) has been trying to capture Tripoli for 13 months while Turkish military aid for the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) helped it regain ground.

The LNA, backed by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia, last week announced a new air campaign, but bombardment since has been artillery.

Last month pro-GNA forces recaptured towns in the north-west from the LNA, re-establishing control between Tripoli and the Tunisian border.
They made two attempts to seize the LNA’s strategic al-Watiya air base, but were repelled and moved to the main LNA north0western stronghold Tarhouna.

An LNA military source said on Saturday fighting was the fiercest so far. Eastern forces briefly took some ground in Abu Salim.

Tripoli residents described the bombardment as the worst after weeks of fighting as the GNA attempts to end Haftar’s campaign to seize Tripoli and push his forces out of artillery range.

Mitiga, the only functioning airport in the Libyan capital, was targeted by rockets for a second day after shelling on Saturday destroyed fuel tanks and sprayed shrapnel across a passenger jet being readied for take-off.

The UN Libya mission condemned “indiscriminate attacks”, mostly attributable to pro-LNA forces. It said last month the LNA was responsible for 80% of civilian deaths in the first quarter of 2020.

Water pressure in Tripoli started to drop on Sunday after the Great Man-Made River Project, the main water utility, said a power station in the south was stormed by armed men.

Ahmed al-Deeb, head of its western region committee, said the men switched off electricity because of a shortage of cooking gas and a lack of cash in local banks and that tribal elders were negotiating with them to restore power.

The state-run National Oil Corporation was working to supply cooking gas from the country’s main Sharara oil field.

 

[Sinan]

A few weeks ago GNA started an operation against Al-Wattiya Airbase. It was a small scale attack around the base, LNA forces at the area mobilized and replied back, it was kind of a low intensity fight. While the fight was on going Turkish drones hit every fuel tanker that were coming to Al-Wattiya base. A few days later LNA forces run out fuel, they abandoned their military equipment (Tanks, Artillery, Armored Vehicles) and escaped by motorcycles. GNA forces captured these and encircled Al-Wattiya base.

Wars are not always based on numerical advantage. On one side you have highly trained/ experienced Turkish officers that are planning and managing the operations. They making a lot of difference on the battleground.

 

[Falcon29]

Seems like the GNA will try to recover whole Western coast of Libya. I wonder if both sides can eventually come to a political resolution? What do they want future of Libya to be and look like? Stay divided for longer? Hope that is not the case.

 

[Khafee]

Seems like the GNA will try to recover whole Western coast of Libya. I wonder if both sides can eventually come to a political resolution? What do they want future of Libya to be and look like? Stay divided for longer? Hope that is not the case.

Turkey & GNA are taking on Russia and US backed LNA, I wonder how this will end up?

 

[Falcon29]

Libya scene is witnessing some changes, GNA with help of Turkish support has restored control over some cities/towns it lost on the Western side of Libya. Now they are supposedly preparing for a push towards the city of Sirte. Egypt , France, UAE and Russia are opposed to that but its unclear to what extent they will go to prevent that.

 

[Falcon29]

Turkey & GNA are taking on Russia and US backed LNA, I wonder how this will end up?

My bad Khafee I missed this post. At beginning of 2020 I thought the GNA's luck ran out, LNA was trying to close in on Tripoli but now we are approaching a stalemate if GNA take over Sirte. It is getting heated though, threats from both sides, calls by all sides to declare ceasefire and possibility of Egyptian intervention.

It all depends if how a GNA offensive on Sirte would play out. As of now they seem to be mobilizing for it and Egypt is seeming to suggest it will support LNA forces but time will tell.

 

[Gripen9]

Can somebody give me a quick primer on the conflict.
GNA is the UN recognized government. But US, UAE, Russia, France, Egypt et al support a alleged warlord Haftar headed LNA?
While this civil war is running, where (to whom) is Libyan oil going?

 

[Khafee]

Can somebody give me a quick primer on the conflict.
GNA is the UN recognized government. But US, UAE, Russia, France, Egypt et al support a alleged warlord Haftar headed LNA?
While this civil war is running, where (to whom) is Libyan oil going?

Blue - GNA
Red - LNA
Green - Al Qaida

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