Turkey S-400 Dilemma

[Khafee]

Turkey looks set to defy US and proceed with Russian S-400 acquisition
Kerry Herschelman, Washington, DC
23 May 2019

A Russian S-400 system on display near Moscow in 2017. Turkey looks set to proceed with procuring S-400s despite the threat of US sanctions. Source: A Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images

Key Points

• There are increased signs that Turkey will not scrap its Russian S-400 deal despite the US threat of sanctions
• If Ankara continues with the deal the F-35s it had on order could be stopped and the country could also be subject to Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions

There are increasing signs that Turkey will ultimately stick to accepting the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) it has ordered at the expense of not acquiring the 100 US-designed F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (JSFs) it has signed up for, informed Western defence sources have told Jane’s .

US news channel CNBC, quoting multiple people familiar with the matter, reported on 21 May that Turkey has a little more than two weeks to decide whether to complete a complex arms deal to buy the US Patriot air defence system or risk severe penalties by proceeding with an agreement to buy the rival Russian system.

In defiance of US warnings, however, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar told local media on 21 May that Turkey is preparing for all scenarios, including possible US sanctions, over its Russian S-400 deal.

“We need to set up an air defence system to protect our 82 million people and our country,” Akar said, stressing that Turkey was under threat of air and missile attacks from its border with Syria.

He added that the United States was still trying to dissuade Turkey from purchasing the Russian SAMs but that Ankara was determined to go through with the deal.

“We tell them it's a ‘done deal’ but they keep telling us ‘No deal is a done deal’,” he noted.

“Turkey is also making preparations for the potential implementation of CAATSA sanctions,” he said, falling short of detailing preparations to this end.

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[Khafee]

Erdogan announces Turkey will co-produce S-500s with Russia
Bruce Jones, London

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced on 18 May at a youth rally in Istanbul the future joint production with Russia of the S-500 Prometey (‘Prometheus’)/55R6M Triumfator-M (‘Triumphant-M’) fifth-generation air defence system, the state-funded Anadolu Press Agency has reported.

Potential collaboration between Moscow and Ankara on the S-500 system has been mooted since 7 May when Sergey Chemezov, CEO of the Russian state defence conglomerate Rostec, welcomed partnership with Turkey on the project. “Our states have the competence to develop the technology in this area,” Chemezov said, stressing that Russia is ready to support Turkey’s defence industry.

Two months earlier Duma Defence Committee Deputy Chair Yuri Nikolaevich Shvytkin had confirmed military collaboration with Turkey but added that “existing agreements should be linked to strict performance adherence”.

Janes | Latest defence and security news

Janes | The latest defence and security news from Janes - the trusted source for defence intelligence

www.janes.com

 

[Persian Gulf]

What SAM does Turkey produce? Turkey is buying s-400 because it cannot produce something like the s-400, but suddenly they think they will co-produce s-500 (which is almost finished anyway) with Russia?

I find that hard to believe!

 

[Khafee]

What SAM does Turkey produce? Turkey is buying s-400 because it cannot produce something like the s-400, but suddenly they think they will co-produce s-500 (which is almost finished anyway) with Russia?

I find that hard to believe!

"Co-produce" = Assemble.

 

[Khafee]

Turkish Personnel Have Already Arrived in Russia To Begin Training on the S-400 “Triumf” Missile Systems
May 25, 2019
Stefano D'Urso

Russian S-400 anti-aircraft and anti-missile system deployed at Hmeymim Air Base in Syria. (Photo: Russian Ministry of Defence)

Turkish MoD stated that S-400 training has already started, even though it may jeopardize the F-35 deal.
Turkish military personnel arrived in Russia to begin training on the S-400 Triumf (NATO designation SA-21 Growler) after the controversial deal that led to the suspension of F-35 deliveries to and all program-related activities.

“We have sent our specialists to Russia to undergo a training course on the use of the S-400 systems, the course will start today and last several months”, said Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar after Washington allegedly issued Ankara a two-week ultimatum, even if the reports about this ultimatum have been denied by Turkish Foreign Minister. According to various news outlets, by the end of the first week of June, Turkey must cancel the S-400 deal with Russia and instead buy US made Patriot missiles or face removal from F-35 program, permanent halt of F-35 deliveries, US sanctions and possible consequences in NATO relations.

Turkey has 100 Lockheed Martin F-35As Lightning II on order. Ten Turkish companies are involved in the program, with a total Turkish investment of more than $1 billion, building parts of the jet’s fuselage and cockpit.

The first Turkish Air Force F-35A during its maiden flight. (Photo: Clinton White/High Brass Photo)

Here’s what we wrote last year when President Trump first blocked the Turkish F-35 sale:

The tough trade rhetoric from Washington creates frustration not only for Turkey, but also within the U.S. and potentially for other Joint Strike Fighter program participants. Pentagon correspondent to ForeignPolicy.com, Lara Seligman, wrote that, “Several key components of the jet are manufactured by Turkish companies, and the U.S. Defense Department estimates it will take two years to find and qualify new suppliers to replace any Turkish firms that are kicked out of the program. Meanwhile, the main European hub for the F-35’s engine repair and overhaul is in Eskisehir, in northwestern Turkey.” As a result of the engine repair hub being located in Eskisehir, Turkey, maintenance delays for other European users of the F-35 could emerge while other engine repair facility provisions are arranged.

Despite the risk of sanctions and economic losses, Turkey has no intention to drop out of the S-400 deal, as said by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “There is absolutely no question of [Turkey] taking a step back from the S-400s purchase. That is a done deal. There will be joint production of the S-500 after the S-400”.


Back in 2017, Moscow and Ankara signed an agreement for the purchase of S-400 systems. The deliveries are expected to begin in June, while the first systems should be operational by 2020. Turkish cooperation with Russia has been strongly criticized by the United States, which cited security concerns and the impossibility to integrate S-400s into NATO’s air defence systems. The Russian S-400 was designed to shoot down U.S. and allied aircraft at greater ranges and altitudes than older systems. As we already wrote:

The relatively new Russian-built S-400 “Triumf” Surface to Air Missile (SAM) system has been characterized as an “anti-stealth” air defense system that could specifically threaten the F-35A and its user nations should technology from the aircraft trickle back to Russia as they provide support to Turkey for their S-400 program.

Meanwhile, Turkish pilots are training at Luke Air Force Base with the first two F-35s delivered in 2018 and other two reportedly delivered in April 2019. Sources report that the first group of Turkish pilots completed the training program with the 63rd Fighter Squadron and a new group have begun entry-level training.

Turkish Personnel Have Already Arrived in Russia To Begin Training on the S-400 "Triumf" Missile Systems

Turkish MoD stated that S-400 training has already started, even though it may jeopardize the F-35 deal. Turkish military personnel arrived in Russia to

theaviationist.com

 

[Scorpion]

What SAM does Turkey produce? Turkey is buying s-400 because it cannot produce something like the s-400, but suddenly they think they will co-produce s-500 (which is almost finished anyway) with Russia?

I find that hard to believe!

The US will not allow Turkey to procure the system unless Turkey withdraw from NATO let alone getting involved in S-500 production which is yet to be ready. The US already offered PAC-3 to Turkey and its up to Turkey to decide whether to bow down or face sanctions. NATO will not allow Turkey to expose its defense mechanism to Russians. Also from a technical point of view doing, synchronizing both west and east tech is almost impossible. Saudi Arabia has also shown interest in acquiring the System but till now we are a bit confused to whether this step would be ideal or not and will it have an affect on the performance or not.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The US will not allow Turkey to procure the system unless Turkey withdraw from NATO let alone getting involved in S-500 production which is yet to be ready. The US already offered PAC-3 to Turkey and its up to Turkey to decide whether to bow down or face sanctions. NATO will not allow Turkey to expose its defense mechanism to Russians. Also from a technical point of view doing, synchronizing both west and east tech is almost impossible. Saudi Arabia has also shown interest in acquiring the System but till now we are a bit confused to whether this step would be ideal or not and will it have an affect on the performance or not.

Every sign indicates that Turkey will complete the s-400 purchase in the next 1-3 months.

I think Turkey buying the s-400 would be a good thing for NATO if they could learn more about the system and maybe even test against it (like the US/Israel have done with the s-300).

KSA is not in NATO and has strong military links with Russia already, I don't think KSA would face as much backlash from the US if they decided to buy the s-400. I think they should, it is dangerous to be too reliant on one country for all your defence needs. As you note, integration of US-Russian systems is not likely, but KSA is a huge country so I still think it would be beneficial.

 

[Khafee]

U.S. may suspend training of Turkish pilots for F-35 jets over Russia missile deal
May 29, 2019
Humeyra Pamuk, Phil Stewart

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is seriously considering suspending training for Turkish pilots on advanced F-35 fighter jets as Ankara moves ahead with plans to purchase a Russian missile defense system despite objections from Washington, sources told Reuters.

The two NATO allies have argued for months over Turkey’s order for the Russian S-400 defenses, which Washington says are incompatible with the Western alliance’s defense network and would pose a threat to American F-35 stealth fighters which Turkey also plans to buy.

The two sources, who are familiar with Turkey’s role in the F-35 program and who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not say a final decision had been made.

But the deliberation follows further signs that Turkey is moving ahead with the S-400 purchase. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on May 22 that Turkish military personnel were receiving training in Russia to use the S-400, and said Russian personnel may come to Turkey.

The Pentagon and State Department declined to comment.

The Turkish pilots have been training at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. It was unclear whether a decision to suspend their training would mean they would also have to leave the country, or if they remain at the base until a final decision is made about Turkey’s future in the F-35 program.

The United States has said plainly that Turkey cannot have the S-400 and be part of the F-35 program.

If Turkey was removed from the program, it would be one of the most significant ruptures in recent history in the relationship between the two allies, experts say.

But the strains on ties between Washington and Ankara already extend beyond the F-35 to include strategy in Syria, Iran sanctions and the detention of U.S. consular staff.

DONE DEAL
On Monday, Turkish broadcaster Haberturk quoted Akar as saying in an interview that the delivery of the S-400 may not happen in June, when Turkey previously said the missiles were due to arrive. However, he added the agreement was a done deal.

“They may not make it by June but they will come in the months ahead. The process has begun,” he was quoted as saying. The comments lifted Turkey’s lira currency, battered this year by the disagreement between Ankara and Washington.

Objecting to Ankara’s planned Russian defense purchase, the United States in late March halted delivery of equipment related to the F-35 to Turkey, which is both a buyer and a production partner in the program.

The United States has warned that if Turkey takes delivery of the Russian system, it will also trigger U.S. sanctions under CATSAA, a law calling for sanctions against countries procuring military equipment from Russia.

Turkey has said that as a NATO member it poses no threat to the United States and the sanctions should not apply. Ankara has also increasingly pinned its hopes on President Donald Trump to protect it from such penalties.

U.S. officials have called Turkey’s planned purchase of the S-400 system “deeply problematic.” Washington and other NATO allies that own F-35s fear the system’s radar will learn how to spot and track the jet, made by Lockheed Martin Corp , making it less able to evade Russian weapons.

Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Phil Stewart; Editing by Tom Brown and Jonathan Oatis

U.S. may suspend training of Turkish pilots for F-35 jets over Russia missile deal

The United States is seriously considering suspending training for Turkish pilots on advanced F-35 fighter jets as Ankara moves ahead with plans to purchase a Russian missile defense system despite objections from Washington, sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

Russian experts will arrive in Turkey to install the S-400 air defense systems

Tuesday, May 28, 2019


On Monday, during broadcast on Haberturk TV, Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar said that Russian technical personnel will be arriving to the country to install the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.

“Purchase of the S-400 is a done deal. Case closed. Everyone needs to understand that. Our president has said this multiple times. Technical personnel will be arriving from Russia to install the S-400,” Akar said, without specifying the exact time the Russian specialists planned to arrive.

As for when the Russian systems would be delivered to Turkey, the head of the Ministry of Defense noted that “they may not yet be delivered [to Turkey] in June, but they will arrive in the coming months.” According to him, “the process has already started.”

A TV reported asked how Turkey would react if the United States refused to send it fifth-generation F-35 fighters, whether Ankara is ready to consider Russian Su-57 as an alternative. “If the United States changes its stance within the framework of the agreement, then we will create our own rules,” the minister said.

Akar denied all media reports that Washington is demanding Ankara cancel its purchase of the S-400 systems by the end of the first week of June. “I did not receive such information,” he stressed.

It was first reported that Russia and Turkey were negotiating the delivery of S-400 systems in November 2016. On September 12, 2017, Russia confirmed that a deal had been reached. Akar said that the deployment of the S-400 systems would begin in October 2019. In December 2017, the CEO of the Russian defense concern Rostec, Sergey Chemezov reported that the cost of the S-400 system delivery to Ankara is $2.5 billion.

S-400 Triumf is a long-range and medium-range anti-aircraft missile system designed to destroy aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles. The S-400 can also be used against ground targets.

Russian experts will arrive in Turkey to install the S-400 air defense systems

On Monday, during broadcast on Haberturk TV, Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar said that Russian technical personnel will be arriving to the country to install the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. “Purchase of the S-400 is a done deal. Case closed. Everyone needs to understand that...

uawire.org

 

[Khafee]

Turkey denies reports the US threatened to stop supply of F-35 fighters if Ankara purchases S-400 missile systems from Russia

Wednesday, May 29, 2019




The US did not issue ultimatums to Turkey because of the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, reports RIA Novosti with reference to Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.

Akar said that the information that the US threatened to ban Turkey from the F-35 program if it does not refuse the deal to buy Russian missile systems is not accurate.

The Minister noted that Turkey has fully paid for the supply of F-35 fighters, the aircraft have already been delivered, and now the pilots are learning to fly them.

The United States has repeatedly threatened Turkey with sanctions if it will buy Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. One of the possible consequences from the American side was reportedly the delay or cancellation of F-35 sale.

Turkey denies reports the US threatened to stop supply of F-35 fighters if Ankara purchases S-400 missile systems from Russia

The US did not issue ultimatums to Turkey because of the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, reports RIA Novosti with reference to Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar. Akar said that the information that the US threatened to ban Turkey from the F-35 program if it does not...

uawire.org

 

[Scorpion]

Every sign indicates that Turkey will complete the s-400 purchase in the next 1-3 months.

I think Turkey buying the s-400 would be a good thing for NATO if they could learn more about the system and maybe even test against it (like the US/Israel have done with the s-300).

KSA is not in NATO and has strong military links with Russia already, I don't think KSA would face as much backlash from the US if they decided to buy the s-400. I think they should, it is dangerous to be too reliant on one country for all your defence needs. As you note, integration of US-Russian systems is not likely, but KSA is a huge country so I still think it would be beneficial.

I think Russia will operate the System on behalf of Turkey. I don't think Turkey will be allowed to have full access to the system knowing that its a NATO ally.

Saudi Arabia will also face pressure by the US if it went ahead with the procurement. We already operates Patriot and THADD so having the S-400 is illogical. Its a sophisticated system I agree but going to cause a headache.

 

[Khafee]

Concern deepens in Turkey over U.S. sanctions for Russia missile system
May 31, 2019
Orhan Coskun


ANKARA (Reuters) - The looming threat of U.S. sanctions and a wider rupture with Western allies over Turkey’s purchase of Russian air defenses is raising concern in Ankara, two Turkish officials said, despite public insistence the deal will go ahead as planned.

With barely a month left until Turkey could take delivery of Moscow’s S-400 missile defense system, triggering automatic U.S. sanctions, the Turkish government continues to say it will not be deflected from its agreement with Russia.

But worries about the impact of punitive U.S. measures against Turkey’s military, which could degrade its existing fleet of warplanes and block purchases of new U.S. F-35 stealth fighter jets and the Patriot missile defense system, have reached as far as President Tayyip Erdogan, the official said.

“Some senior officials are opposing this delivery taking place, at least in June. A senior official conveyed this to Erdogan as well,” one of the officials told Reuters.

“The officials opposing the immediate delivery of the S-400s are concerned about ties with NATO being disrupted, U.S. sanctions and (the prospect) that the Patriots will become totally unavailable.”

A second official familiar with the S-400 deal confirmed there were concerns over the possible U.S. response, although he reiterated Turkey’s position that it would not back out.

Turkey and the United States, both members of the NATO alliance set up to counter Moscow’s military power, have argued for months over the impact of S-400s deployed on Turkish soil.

Washington says the Russian system is incompatible with the Western alliance’s defense network and poses a threat to the F-35s that Turkey also plans to buy.

A top defense official from a European Union NATO member state said buying S-400s could carry a wider cost for Turkey.

“NATO cannot force Turkey not to buy, but if Ankara does go ahead it could have effects on the alliance’s intelligence sharing and further defense purchases,” the official said.

Turkey says that defending its territory poses no threat to allies, and that it has met all NATO obligations. A defense industry official said he expected the missile defenses to be stationed on Turkey’s border with Syria, although no final decision had been made.

Delivery of the S-400s is scheduled for July, and Turkey has even suggested that the first consignment could be brought forward to June.

But Defense Minister Hulusi Akar this week offered the first hint of possible delay, saying “they may not make it by June” and adding that Russia and Turkey were still working on some details of the deal.

STRAINS WITH RUSSIA
Strains between Russia and Turkey over the war in Syria, where the two countries back rival sides, could cast a shadow over relations as they seek to finalize the S-400 delivery.

A deal between Russia, Turkey and Iran to curb fighting around the northwestern province of Idlib has collapsed, as Russian-backed Syrian forces attack jihadist fighters and Turkey-backed rebels in an offensive that has driven thousands of civilians to seek shelter on the Turkish border.

However, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said on Friday the S-400 delivery schedule was unchanged.

“Reports in some media outlets about Turkey evaluating delaying the S-400 procurement upon the request of the United States do not reflect the truth,” Aksoy said. “The process of procuring S-400s from Russia is continuing as planned.”

Three Turkish officials who spoke to Reuters all said it was possible the S-400s could still be delivered in June, but also left open the possibility of delay.

“Renewed tensions with the United States aren’t desired at this point,” the first official said, pointing to the potential economic damage from sanctions. “The plan now is for the S-400s to be delivered in June, but there is an ongoing discussion.

“Depending on the talks, it may be pushed back.”

Erdogan’s government will not want to set off a crisis with the United States immediately before a June 23 Istanbul mayoral election - which is being re-run after his party suffered a narrow and dramatic loss two months ago - or a meeting he is due to hold with President Donald Trump in Japan just days later.

“Turkey does not want to hurt its ties with the United States or Russia,” the defense industry official said. “With the Erdogan-Trump meeting, it’s possible that the two sides will understand each other better.”

Additional reporting by Gabriela Baczynska in Brussels; Editing by Dominic Evans and Ros Russell

Concern deepens in Turkey over U.S. sanctions for Russia missile system

The looming threat of U.S. sanctions and a wider rupture with Western allies over Turkey's purchase of Russian air defenses is raising concern in Ankara, two Turkish officials said, despite public insistence the deal will go ahead as planned.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

Turkey says no delay in delivery of S-400s from Russia
May 31, 2019

ANKARA (Reuters) - The delivery schedule for Russia’s S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey is continuing as planned, Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said on Friday, dismissing reports that Ankara was evaluating a delay in response to U.S. concerns.

Turkey’s purchase of the Russian systems has strained its already tense ties with the United States, a NATO ally, which says the S-400s are not compatible with the alliance’s defense network and pose a threat to F-35 stealth fighter jets which Turkey is due to receive.

Ankara has since proposed forming a working group to assess the U.S. concerns, but has yet to hear back from Washington on that proposal. The United States has warned of sanctions if Turkey presses ahead with the deal.

Speaking with reporters in Singapore, acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said while he was not aware of a working group, he had spoken with his Turkish counterpart in the last week and they were making progress on discussions.

On Tuesday, sources told Reuters that the United States was seriously considering suspending training for Turkish pilots on the Lockheed Martin F-35 jets over Ankara’s decision to continue with the S-400 deal.

Asked whether a decision had been made to send Turkish pilots back, Shanahan said Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar wanted to meet to discuss the path forward.


“They are a strategic partner, so I’m not going to do tit- for-tat with a strategic partner,” Shanahan said.

“He and I should agree on what the plan is going forward. I don’t want to just call him and say, ask your people to come home, that wouldn’t a respectful way between two strategic partners.”

Shanahan added that his position had not changed with respect to Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 and Ankara should not get the F-35 if they go ahead with it.

Turkey has said that as a NATO member it poses no threat to the United States and the sanctions should not apply.

On Monday, broadcaster Haberturk quoted Akar as saying that the delivery of the S-400s may not happen in June, when Turkey previously said the missiles could arrive, but added the agreement was a done deal.

Aksoy said that procurement of the S-400 systems was continuing as scheduled and the working group offer was still on the table.


“Reports in some media outlets about Turkey evaluating delaying the S-400 procurement upon the request of the United States do not reflect the truth,” he said in a statement. “The process of procuring S-400s from Russia is continuing as planned.”

Objecting to the purchase, the United States in late March halted delivery of equipment related to the F-35 to Turkey, which is both a buyer and a production partner in the program. The move was the first concrete step of what could eventually be the full removal of Turkey from the F-35 program.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump have agreed to meet on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Japan next month, the Turkish presidency said, adding that Erdogan had reiterated Turkey’s working group offer during their phone call.

Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu and Ece Toksabay in Ankara and Idrees Ali in Singapore. Editing by Nick Macfie

Turkey says no delay in delivery of S-400s from Russia

The delivery schedule for Russia's S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey is continuing as planned, Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy said on Friday, dismissing reports that Ankara was evaluating a delay in response to U.S. concerns.

www.reuters.com

 

[Timsah]

What SAM does Turkey produce? Turkey is buying s-400 because it cannot produce something like the s-400, but suddenly they think they will co-produce s-500 (which is almost finished anyway) with Russia?

I find that hard to believe!

Turkey is currently working on their indigenious system the Hisar-A/O/U
A-Short Range
O-Medium Range
U-Long Range
on top of this, Turkey is eyeing to acquire the ASTER-30 SAMP/T from France with license production by Roketsan. Them getting the S-500 might be a possibility but production is not considered I give it 1 in 100 to produce.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Turkey is currently working on their indigenious system the Hisar-A/O/U
A-Short Range
O-Medium Range
U-Long Range
on top of this, Turkey is eyeing to acquire the ASTER-30 SAMP/T from France with license production by Roketsan. Them getting the S-500 might be a possibility but production is not considered I give it 1 in 100 to produce.

Hisar-A/O are short-range with max range of 25km, and neither are expected to enter into service until 2020 at earliest. Siper (Hisar-U) has a max range of 120km and is expected by the end of 2021 (but there is not much information about this system). S-400 range is 400km and S-300PMU2 range is 200km, so Hisar-U/Siper is still not a substitute for those systems.

Russia only a few years ago accepted to export the s-400 and 40N6E missile in particular, and s-500 isn't even in service with Russia, so I very strongly doubt that the s-500 will be exported any time in the next 10 years.