America/Chinese war inevitable?

LilAnn

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/11630185/US-China-war-inevitable-unless-Washington-drops-demands-over-South-China-Sea.html
China’s armed forces are to extend their operations and its air force will become an offensive as well as defensive force for the first time, in a major shift in policy that will strengthen fears of accidental conflict.

A policy document by the state council, or cabinet, saidChina faced a “grave and complex array of security threats”, justifying the change.

The People’s Liberation Army, including its navy and air force, will be allowed to “project power” further beyond its borders at sea and more assertively in the air in order to safeguard its maritime possessions, the white paper stated.

The navy will add “open seas protection” to a traditional remit of “offshore waters defence”, it said.

The posture risks escalating the tension over disputed islands in the South China Sea and elsewhere in the Pacific, where the United States is determined to protect the interests of allies like Taiwan and the Philippines.


Only last week, a US aircraft ignored repeated warnings from the Chinese military to fly a reconnaissance mission over the islands.

Global Times, a tabloid newspaper run by the Communist Party, said that China might have to “accept” there would be conflict with the United States.

“If the United States’ bottom line is that China has to halt its activities, then a US-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea”, said the paper, which is often seen as a mouth-piece of hardline nationalists in the government in Beijing.

State media reported on Tuesday that Beijing had begun building two lighthouses on reefs in the Spratly Islands, a smattering of outcrops that are claimed by an array of countries including not only China but also Vietnam and the Philippines.

Last month, satellite imagery revealed the Chinese had almost completed an air strip on another reef - Fiery Cross - while they are turning another rock, Mischief Reef, into a full island through land reclamation.


The Global Times article described the construction of runways, harbour facilities and buildings on the disputed Spratly Islands as the nation’s “most important bottom line”.

Speaking at a press conference in Beijing, Yang Yujun, a spokesman for the Defence Ministry, dismissed international criticism of China’s policies in the South China Sea, claiming the work was the same as building roads and homes on mainland China and that it would benefit “the whole of international society”.

“From the perspective of sovereignty, there is absolutely no difference”, he said, adding that “some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs”.



Analysts say neither Washington nor Beijing appear to be in the mood to back down and that there is a serious risk of a minor incident in airspace around the islands escalating rapidly.

“I think the concern has to be that China misjudges the situation”, said Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at the Japan campus of Temple University.

“Neither party wants a war if it can be avoided, but there are red lines for both sides”, he said. “I worry whether Beijing considers the US to be a declining power and assumes that Washington will back down if it shoots down a US observation aircraft”.

Washington chose to “de-escalate” a major crisis that blew up after a Chinese fighter collided with a US Navy intelligence-gathering aircraft off Hainan Island in April 2001.

However, Prof. Dujarric said there would be a different response if a similar incident were to occur in what Washington insists is international air space over the South China Sea.

Recent developments have provoked new concerns in the region, with Ma Ying-jeou, the president of Taiwan, calling for the different nations laying claim to the South China Sea to put their differences aside and carry out joint development of natural resources.
 
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Corzhens

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I am jittery with the mention of this topic because it is obvious that a war is going to escalate soon. China has been bullying the small countries like Vietnam and the Philippines in relation to the Spratly islands issue. There was even an instance that Chinese sentinels in the said islands hit the Vietnamese boats with water hoses. It was a mischief act but nonetheless confrontational.

The posting of USS Ronald Reagan to guard the South China sea particularly the Spratly Islands where China has been building a huge structure with an airstrip is a direct affront to the muscles of China. It seems that the US is also flexing its muscles and warning China of its bullying. Remember that weeks ago, the Chinese navy had warned the US planes to stop flying over their air space in Spratly as if they owned the entire island group.

So where are we heading? It would be China versus the world.
 
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Yes. I'm sure that a war between the two most powerful countries on the planet, both of which are economically dependant on each other, will immediately break out because of a couple of small islands... the fact that the US isn't even involved in any way in the dispute of these islands doesn't change this obvious fact.

/sarcasm out
 

Redheart

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The U.S doesn't really care who owns the Islands. All this is about "ego" if you'd call it that. China believes they should be calling the shots in far East. The U.S doesn't like even though they know it's a development they can't reverse. Eventually they'll back down quietly and stop meddling. East Asia is for East Asians, not Americans.
 

Corzhens

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Yes. I'm sure that a war between the two most powerful countries on the planet, both of which are economically dependant on each other, will immediately break out because of a couple of small islands... the fact that the US isn't even involved in any way in the dispute of these islands doesn't change this obvious fact.

/sarcasm out
Wow, 2 of the most powerful countries in the world. Do you really think that China is that powerful in terms of their capability in warfare? I would agree that Russia is but China? As in my previous comment, I feel jitters when I think of a probable war but in my mind, China will be annihilated if the US would desire so.
 

Virtuoso

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Wow, 2 of the most powerful countries in the world. Do you really think that China is that powerful in terms of their capability in warfare? I would agree that Russia is but China? As in my previous comment, I feel jitters when I think of a probable war but in my mind, China will be annihilated if the US would desire so.
"Power", especially in a military context, is never single-faceted. Russia may seem gargantuan in some aspects of their military, such as their strategic missile forces, while it lags in others. The same could be said for China or the US.
 

Corzhens

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"Power", especially in a military context, is never single-faceted. Russia may seem gargantuan in some aspects of their military, such as their strategic missile forces, while it lags in others. The same could be said for China or the US.
I guess we can really never tell the military might of any country unless it is tested in a war. History books say that Japan ignored that face until the US bombed Hiroshima. The following bomb that devastated Nagasaki was a reality check for Japan which later on surrendered. I sure wish that history would repeat itself, this time China will wave the white flag to the US.
 

orangesunset

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The U.S doesn't really care who owns the Islands. All this is about "ego" if you'd call it that. China believes they should be calling the shots in far East. The U.S doesn't like even though they know it's a development they can't reverse. Eventually they'll back down quietly and stop meddling. East Asia is for East Asians, not Americans.
Exactly it is all about ego, or China wants to show its people that it can standup to the imperialist running dog USA. USA doesn't really want to get involved, but then the Philippines keeps on whining so USA has to pretend they are interested. Most of the shipping that goes through the area is Chinese shipping exporting stuff to USA. USA needs Chinese cheap goods, China needs to export the stuff.

So China plays stupid games, USA plays stupid games, they both do a lot of chest thumping everyone can pretend to be macho.

It is similar to the cold war. Russia or USA for that matter would regularly send submarines into disputed waters. The mainly happened with Norway. Everytime this happened, Norway would drop a few depth charges onto the submarines. If I remember correctly, one time Norway managed to get lucky and forced one of the Russian submarines to surface. Norway after some chest thumping let the submarine go.

This shows that Norway wasn't serious, the depth charges where just to say, hey we know what you are doing.
 
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Wow, 2 of the most powerful countries in the world. Do you really think that China is that powerful in terms of their capability in warfare? I would agree that Russia is but China? As in my previous comment, I feel jitters when I think of a probable war but in my mind, China will be annihilated if the US would desire so.
I never said anything about pure military force. China is THE country that keeps the world economy going... that probably counts for way more than any amount of military hardware.
 

Virtuoso

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I sure wish that history would repeat itself, this time China will wave the white flag to the US.
To play the devil's advocate, the same was said of the North Vietnamese.
 

glockman

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The American military is wary of a conflict in South East Asia. I believe nothing short of self defense would make the U.S engage the P.L.A in direct conflict. After all, no one would gain anything from such a disaster. Chinese aggressiveness towards Taiwan might result in American intervention but that would most likely be at the United Nations and possibly financial aid. However, it is important to note that the Chinese economy has started showing a decline in its steady growth rate. This may cause the leadership to show less restraint, especially when they feel threatened. In short, yes, a war between the two is possible but very unlikely.
 

Redheart

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Chinese economy has started showing a decline in its steady growth rate. This may cause the leadership to show less restraint
If we were to apply the same logic across the spectrum then Russia which has been sanctioned by the West would at this precise moment be engaged in war with the West. Save for issuing threats, reminding everyone they have nukes, etc, etc they haven't crossed the line yet, right?

Exactly it is all about ego, or China wants to show its people that it can standup to the imperialist running dog USA. USA doesn't really want to get involved, but then the Philippines keeps on whining so USA has to pretend they are interested.
I think the U.S thinks grandstanding, even for a little while, would give those who sought their aid the impression that they did something. Should the tensions escalate then to defuse the whole thing, the matter will be referred to the U.N. The U.N will do nothing and they take the blame for allowing China to seize. The U.S can then have an excuse for failing their "friends."
 

glockman

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If we were to apply the same logic across the spectrum then Russia which has been sanctioned by the West would at this precise moment be engaged in war with the West. Save for issuing threats, reminding everyone they have nukes, etc, etc they haven't crossed the line yet, right?
The Chinese situation is completely different from what is going on in Russia. Russian aggression is for the same reason as it always been. Access. To warm water ports and by extension markets. Chinese aggression, understandably, is due to the presence of so many U.S forces in the vicinity.
 

orangesunset

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I think the U.S thinks grandstanding, even for a little while, would give those who sought their aid the impression that they did something. Should the tensions escalate then to defuse the whole thing, the matter will be referred to the U.N. The U.N will do nothing and they take the blame for allowing China to seize. The U.S can then have an excuse for failing their "friends."
Americans like to grandstand, and it works well against small countries. The difference between China and Russia is how they react to US grandstanding. When China invaded Tibet, USA barked and made lots of noise. China pretended not to hear USA. When Russia decided to invade Chechnya, USA barked bad Russia. Putin then openly told USA to shut up and he does not care what USA thinks.

In both cases, USA did absolutely nothing. In the case of the Spratly Islands, whether they are in Chinese hands or someone elses does not affect USA in any way. So USA will bark, but they will not take action.
 

LilAnn

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Yes. I'm sure that a war between the two most powerful countries on the planet, both of which are economically dependant on each other, will immediately break out because of a couple of small islands... the fact that the US isn't even involved in any way in the dispute of these islands doesn't change this obvious fact.

/sarcasm out
When has the US not being involved in the dispute ever kept them from going to war? Or at the very least, picking sides and supporting them with whatever they needed.
 

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