Attack on military parade in Iran

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attack on military parade in Iran

Saturday’s shooting attack, among the worst ever on the Guards, illustrated that Iran’s elite force, which answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can be vulnerable to guerrilla-style operations.
Iran had enjoyed relative stability compared to Arab neighbors who have grappled with political and economic upheaval touched off by popular uprisings in 2011.
The Guards have vowed to retaliate for the attack.
WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE?
Iran blamed the United States and its Gulf Arab neighbors for the bloodshed. But it has presented no evidence.

An Iranian ethnic Arab opposition movement called the Ahvaz National Resistance, which seeks a separate state in oil-rich Khuzestan province, claimed responsibility for the attack.
So did Islamic State, who also claimed responsibility for a 2017 attack at the Iranian parliament and the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, which left 18 dead.
Neither group has presented proof of their involvement.
Arab opposition groups have a long list of grievances against Iranian leaders and their frustrations are growing.
The city of Ahvaz, where the attack took place, is the capital of Khuzestan, a region bordering Iraq where the majority of Iran’s Arab minority lives.
The community has long felt neglected by the Persian-dominated central government in Tehran.
The area has been hit particularly hard by the economic problems afflicting the entire country and the unemployment rate in Khuzestan is 14.5 percent, higher than the national rate of 11.8 per cent.

Poor living standards have been compounded by electricity shortages and a severe drought, which locals blame on mismanagement by the central government. Residents of Ahvaz have been forced to stay inside their homes on some days because of severe sandstorms linked to drought in the past year.
Armed opposition groups have played on this discontent to attempt to drum up support for their actions which have included attacks on oil pipelines in the region. Civil rights activists say these violent attacks undermine their peaceful efforts to help the community and lead to widespread arrests.
The Kurds in western Iran and the Baluch in the southeast, both prominent minority groups, also complain of central government neglect. Armed Kurdish opposition groups have clashed with the Guards in the border area with Iraq in recent months, leading to several dead and wounded on both sides.
In early September, the Guards fired seven missiles at a base of a Kurdish opposition group in northern Iraq, killing at least 11 people.
WHAT HAS BEEN THE REACTION TO THE ATTACK AMONG IRAN’S RIVAL POLITICAL FACTIONS?
Such attacks tend to unite Iranian reformers and hardliners despite sharp differences over domestic and foreign policies.
President Hassan Rouhani has pushed back against the growing economic and political influence of the Guards in recent years but, after the Ahvaz attack, it will be difficult for Rouhani to challenge them.

The violence has led to a boost in support for the Guards, according to analysts, which they will likely use to silence their critics, including Rouhani.
President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from an international nuclear deal from Iran will also give hardliners more political leverage because they argued that the United States should not be trusted.
HOW WILL THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS REACT?
Senior commanders have said the Ahvaz attack was carried out by militants trained by Gulf states and Israel and backed by America. But it is unlikely that the Guards will strike any of these foes directly.
They will probably present a show of strength by launching missiles at groups operating in Iraq or Syria that may be linked to the militants who carried out the attack.
After the Tehran attack by Islamic State in 2017, the Guards launched missiles at militant groups in eastern Syria days later. And after a series of clashes with Kurdish opposition groups in recent months, the Guards unleashed missiles at a Kurdish opposition base in northern Iraq in early September.
The Guards are also likely to enforce a tight security policy in Khuzestan province for the foreseeable future, arresting any perceived domestic opponents including civil rights activists.
 
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#3

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An engineered mullah attack on his own people intended for public consumption.
 
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The funny thing is that Iran has accused UAE/Saudi/Israel and the US of being behind the attack.
 
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Iran is increasingly in a precarious position of its own doing. Spreading venom all around neighbourhood expecting no ill-effect on yourself is quite foolish.

Iran's people will have to ultimately rise and depose this regime...I wish them the best on it always.
 
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Iran is increasingly in a precarious position of its own doing. Spreading venom all around neighbourhood expecting no ill-effect on yourself is quite foolish.

Iran's people will have to ultimately rise and depose this regime...I wish them the best on it always.
How do you evaluate the current measurements taken by major world countries against Iran. Will the sanctions be effective this time to make Iran abandon its nuclear programme?
 
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How do you evaluate the current measurements taken by major world countries against Iran. Will the sanctions be effective this time to make Iran abandon its nuclear programme?
Next few months should provide a better answer. It boils down to will China provide a barter system or yuan/rial direct system (since US will soon shut down swift network to Iran for use of USD) for trade to Iran (oil for goods etc).

I say this because I think its november 5th (iirc) that the major sanctions regarding this really kick in....and also the effective deadline for China/Russia to make up their mind on it....given India announced earlier today that it is cutting oil imports from Iran to very low level or even zero.

If they do play ball (i.e not worth damaging relations with US + Allies anymore), Iran regime is done, its a matter of when not if after that, because Iran self-reliance part of economy is not going to keep their population quiet and at home.

If they (Russia/China) do take the hit and continue trade with Iran (mostly from Chinese side, since Russia is already energy surplus and is already in precarious situation economically and cant upset that anymore than it is by importing iranian energy)....then it is more a long term issue and will depend maybe on whether Trump wins a 2nd term. It will be 2 sides trying to wait each other out basically....and US holds the disadvantage there given its a democratic system (and all the optics of reversing previous admin decisions come into play etc).

I tend to think Russia and China, given the other sanctions applied, dont want anymore (and focus on negotiating the release of the current ones from the US alognside tarrifs etc) and will cut iran trade to a minimum.....especially given how China has done similar with North Korea for last couple years (the difference there is North Korean people I feel are much more servile to their govt compared to Iran).

I guess let's see!
 
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Next few months should provide a better answer. It boils down to will China provide a barter system or yuan/rial direct system (since US will soon shut down swift network to Iran for use of USD) for trade to Iran (oil for goods etc).

I say this because I think its november 5th (iirc) that the major sanctions regarding this really kick in....and also the effective deadline for China/Russia to make up their mind on it....given India announced earlier today that it is cutting oil imports from Iran to very low level or even zero.

If they do play ball (i.e not worth damaging relations with US + Allies anymore), Iran regime is done, its a matter of when not if after that, because Iran self-reliance part of economy is not going to keep their population quiet and at home.

If they (Russia/China) do take the hit and continue trade with Iran (mostly from Chinese side, since Russia is already energy surplus and is already in precarious situation economically and cant upset that anymore than it is by importing iranian energy)....then it is more a long term issue and will depend maybe on whether Trump wins a 2nd term. It will be 2 sides trying to wait each other out basically....and US holds the disadvantage there given its a democratic system (and all the optics of reversing previous admin decisions come into play etc).

I tend to think Russia and China, given the other sanctions applied, dont want anymore (and focus on negotiating the release of the current ones from the US alognside tarrifs etc) and will cut iran trade to a minimum.....especially given how China has done similar with North Korea for last couple years (the difference there is North Korean people I feel are much more servile to their govt compared to Iran).

I guess let's see!
Iran can find and alternative ways to evade sanctions through Iraq and Lebanon for example. I just listened to Trumps speech at the UN and he seemed determined. Can you expand a bit on the direct currency system and in what way that is going to benefit Iran, eventually Iran will have to exchange Yuan to USD.
 
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Iran can find and alternative ways to evade sanctions through Iraq and Lebanon for example.
Yep it is true, but they will be limited as any large entities will quickly fall under the radar of sanctions by the US. This leaves such operation to small companies and myriad shell companies...which means any large logistics is pretty much out of the question....and that is going to hurt a large economy like Iran.

I just listened to Trumps speech at the UN and he seemed determined.
Yes I think this will be a sea change. He wants a result on it and also has seemed keen to create as strong an anti-Iran alliance in the neighbourhood as possible.

Can you expand a bit on the direct currency system and in what way that is going to benefit Iran, eventually Iran will have to exchange Yuan to USD.
Well with direct currency bypassing USD, there is no onus to really change the currency, because Iran wouldn't really be able to use any USD it would convert in the scale needed for official trade (because of the swift network about to shut down) with other countries (which would be the main reason to try such).

Its also worth keeping in mind that Chinese Yuan is hard-pegged to USD and is becoming increasingly a viable currency in world trade/forex...so Iranian shell companies would likely find a way to keep some trickle of essential trade going with the broader world (and as you mention using Lebanon/Iraq as conduits). Just the costs, delays etc will be high and it will not be well insured (so risk increases too, esp given US can and will interdict the routes it picks up on its vast C4I network as much as it can)...this all adds to the end inflation pressure on Iranian economy.

Basically Iran and China would have to come to some agreement on how they would clear and exchange their currencies/credits that they build up over time...and Iran will have to be fine with importing almost everything from China. China could try importing non-Chinese goods that Iran wants (on top of Chinese imports) and then re-export to Iran...but that will almost certainly attract sanctions quite quickly.

A lot of this basically depends on China and how much more it wants to weather from the US targetting its trade and economy etc. on top of what is already happening. Because that is one thing Trump can keep doing regardless of whether he wins or loses in the midterms coming up (assuming he doesnt get impeached and removed after it and that Mike Pence will somehow reverse all of it which is doubtful)....because tariffs and sanctions are (somewhat oddly) given as executive (rather than legislative) powers in the US.

Also the uneasy dynamic on the Iran Rial that this would compound would likely lead to China preferring some barter or partial-barter system with Iran instead of using Rial-Yuan (given such exchange rate is not hedged with multiple inputs...rather dependent on just Iran/China demands and how much Iran bank wants to print/set interest rates at). China obviously doesn't want to be stuck with billions or trillions of Rials that it cant use well or at all (if there indeed is a revolution/overthrow etc) later.
 
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Yep it is true, but they will be limited as any large entities will quickly fall under the radar of sanctions by the US. This leaves such operation to small companies and myriad shell companies...which means any large logistics is pretty much out of the question....and that is going to hurt a large economy like Iran.



Yes I think this will be a sea change. He wants a result on it and also has seemed keen to create as strong an anti-Iran alliance in the neighbourhood as possible.



Well with direct currency bypassing USD, there is no onus to really change the currency, because Iran wouldn't really be able to use any USD it would convert in the scale needed for official trade (because of the swift network about to shut down) with other countries (which would be the main reason to try such).

Its also worth keeping in mind that Chinese Yuan is hard-pegged to USD and is becoming increasingly a viable currency in world trade/forex...so Iranian shell companies would likely find a way to keep some trickle of essential trade going with the broader world (and as you mention using Lebanon/Iraq as conduits). Just the costs, delays etc will be high and it will not be well insured (so risk increases too, esp given US can and will interdict the routes it picks up on its vast C4I network as much as it can)...this all adds to the end inflation pressure on Iranian economy.

Basically Iran and China would have to come to some agreement on how they would clear and exchange their currencies/credits that they build up over time...and Iran will have to be fine with importing almost everything from China. China could try importing non-Chinese goods that Iran wants (on top of Chinese imports) and then re-export to Iran...but that will almost certainly attract sanctions quite quickly.

A lot of this basically depends on China and how much more it wants to weather from the US targetting its trade and economy etc. on top of what is already happening. Because that is one thing Trump can keep doing regardless of whether he wins or loses in the midterms coming up (assuming he doesnt get impeached and removed after it and that Mike Pence will somehow reverse all of it which is doubtful)....because tariffs and sanctions are (somewhat oddly) given as executive (rather than legislative) powers in the US.

Also the uneasy dynamic on the Iran Rial that this would compound would likely lead to China preferring some barter or partial-barter system with Iran instead of using Rial-Yuan (given such exchange rate is not hedged with multiple inputs...rather dependent on just Iran/China demands and how much Iran bank wants to print/set interest rates at). China obviously doesn't want to be stuck with billions or trillions of Rials that it cant use well or at all (if there indeed is a revolution/overthrow etc) later.
You have summed it up nicely. Well said mate.
 
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