China will double its nuclear warheads in next 10 years, DIA chief says

Eagle1

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China will double its nuclear warheads in next 10 years, DIA chief says
By Ed Adamczyk
MAY 31, 2019
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Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. General Robert Ashley said Wednesday that he expects China's nuclear weapons arsenal to double in the coming decade. File Photo by Alex Edelman/UPI | License Photo


May 31 (UPI) -- China will double its stockpile of nuclear weapons in the next decade, the chief of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said.

Speaking to the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley added that assessments indicate Russia violated a 1996 treaty banning nuclear detonation tests that could cause a self-sustaining chain reaction.

"Over the next decade, China is likely to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile in the course of implementing the most rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal in China's history," Ashley said on Wednesday. "Last year, China launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training than the rest of the world combined."

"We expect this modernization to continue and this trajectory is consistent with Chinese President Xi's vision for China's military, which he laid out at the 19th Party Congress and stated that China's military will be 'fully transformed into a first tier force' by 2050," Ashley said.

He added that the estimate of China's available nuclear weapons is in the "low, couple of hundred" of warheads.

Of particular concern is the number of tactical nuclear weapons in the Chinese arsenal, weapons designed for battlefield use instead of demolition of cities or strengthened military targets. The New START, or New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty caps tactical weapons at 1,550 deployed warheads, but there is no cap on tactical nuclear weapons. That treaty will expire in 2021.

Ashley noted that China has developed a new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, a new multi-warhead version of its silo-based ICBM, and a new submarine-launched ballistic missile. It has also announced a new nuclear-capable strategic bomber, indicating that "China will soon field their own nuclear triad [ability to fire nuclear weapons from land, sea and air], demonstrating China's commitment to expanding the role and centrality of nuclear forces in Beijing's military aspirations."

On Russia, Ashley said it has also increased its stockpile of tactical weapons.

"We assess Russia to have dozens of these systems already deployed or in development," he said, adding that Russia is believed to have up to 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads not covered by New START.

He referred to the increase in nuclear warheads as "the resurgence of great power competition,' calling it "a geopolitical reality."

 

Lieutenant

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China and Pakistan, maybe Russia too are working on doubling their nuclear arsenal. Iran and North Korea are not immune from acquiring the bomb too. This comes in a time where the US and its allies are calling for denuclearization. Heck, we may see Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey asking for their own.
 

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China and Pakistan, maybe Russia too are working on doubling their nuclear arsenal. Iran and North Korea are not immune from acquiring the bomb too. This comes in a time where the US and its allies are calling for denuclearization. Heck, we may see Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey asking for their own.
In my opinion, the US cannot call for denuclearisation in the ME whilst its puppet state (Israel) has nuclear weapons.
 

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In my opinion, the US cannot call for denuclearisation in the ME whilst its puppet state (Israel) has nuclear weapons.
Yes but there is not to accuse Israel of so far. No evidence that Israel has nuclear weapons while Iran has many nuclear facilities that call for an international investigation to make sure they conform to the IAEA standard.
 

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Yes but there is not to accuse Israel of so far. No evidence that Israel has nuclear weapons while Iran has many nuclear facilities that call for an international investigation to make sure they conform to the IAEA standard.
You are joking...?

Israel has known nuclear facilities since the late '50s, e.g. the Negev Nuclear Research Centre (otherwise known as the Dimona facility).

Mordechai Vanunu (Israeli nuclear scientist) famously exposed Israel's extensive military nuclear programme in the '80s, with huge amounts of detailed evidence. Hence why he was abducted to Israel from the UK by Mossad and served 18 years in prison!

Everyone knows Israel has nuclear weapons... Even recently Bibi was visiting a nuclear reactor in Israel and threatened to "wipe out" any enemies that threatened Israel - the message was pretty clear! Israel threatens to use nuclear weapons to ‘wipe out’ its enemies

Iran's nuclear facilities have been under IAEA inspection since 1970 when it signed the NPT. Israel, by contrast, is not a member to the NPT and refuses to allow IAEA inspectors into Israel.
 

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You are joking...?

Israel has known nuclear facilities since the late '50s, e.g. the Negev Nuclear Research Centre (otherwise known as the Dimona facility).

Mordechai Vanunu (Israeli nuclear scientist) famously exposed Israel's extensive military nuclear programme in the '80s, with huge amounts of detailed evidence. Hence why he was abducted to Israel from the UK by Mossad and served 18 years in prison!

Everyone knows Israel has nuclear weapons... Even recently Bibi was visiting a nuclear reactor in Israel and threatened to "wipe out" any enemies that threatened Israel - the message was pretty clear! Israel threatens to use nuclear weapons to ‘wipe out’ its enemies

Iran's nuclear facilities have been under IAEA inspection since 1970 when it signed the NPT. Israel, by contrast, is not a member to the NPT and refuses to allow IAEA inspectors into Israel.
I am 100% certain that Israel does have nuclear weapons no doubt but there is no single evidence that would force the international community to go after Israel despite having a nuclear facility and not being a NPT signatory. Israel claims it is a research facility and there is no evidence to claim otherwise says the whole world.


Iran has blocked access to certain places in Iran I believe. I think I have read that somewhere in the news or here in the forum.
 

Persian Gulf

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I am 100% certain that Israel does have nuclear weapons no doubt but there is no single evidence that would force the international community to go after Israel despite having a nuclear facility and not being a NPT signatory. Israel claims it is a research facility and there is no evidence to claim otherwise says the whole world.

Iran has blocked access to certain places in Iran I believe. I think I have read that somewhere in the news or here in the forum.
The huge amount of evidence leaked by Vanunu about actual nuclear weapons in Israel, no international inspections of any of Israel's known nuclear facilities (etc) are not sufficient for you, but mere accusations, signatory to NPT since 1970, international inspections since then, JCPOA obligations (which the IAEA have confirmed Iran's compliance with consistently) are sufficient for you to take an even harder line against Iran's nuclear programme? I don't understand your logic here at all.

As for access to nuclear sites - firstly, the position of Israel and Iran cannot be compared because Iran is a signatory to the NPT and international inspectors have had access to all Iranian nuclear sites since 1970, whereas Israel still refuses to sign the NPT and the IAEA have not had any access to Israel's numerous nuclear facilities.

Secondly, I believe you are talking about certain military sites such as Parchin. Such military sites are not part of the NPT and no country in the world would accept international inspectors to visit them (especially not Iran because previously Iran declared the names of its top nuclear scientists to the IAEA and many of them were then assassinated by Israel!). Regardless, Iran did in fact provide access to the Parchin military facility to the IAEA as a compromise to reach the JCPOA (even though they did not have to).

Lastly, as part of the deal Iran implemented the (optional) Additional Protocol, giving the IAEA the right to visit any facility in Iran after presenting their justifications for wanting to do so (and the procedure this uses means that Iran cannot block such a request).

The IAEA in their latest compliance report on Iran (from 31st May 2019) confirmed:

The Agency [IAEA]... has conducted complementary accesses under the Additional Protocol to all the sites and locations in Iran which it needed to visit. Timely and proactive cooperation by Iran in providing such access facilitates implementation of the Additional Protocol and enhances confidence.
 

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