Mike Pompeo in Brussels for Iran talks as tensions escalate
Taylor Heyman and Jamie Prentis
May 13, 2019
The US deployed a Patriot missile defence system to the Arabian Gulf at the weekend
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. AP
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held urgent talks with his European counterparts in Brussels on Monday to shore up allied backing for Washington as international tensions escalate over Iran.
Mr Pompeo entered bilateral meetings with foreign ministers from France, Germany and the UK who were assembled in Brussels to discuss Iran’s recent threat to breach commitments of the 2015 nuclear deal. America's chief diplomat diverted to the European capital after rescheduling the first day of a planned trip to Russia.
The three ministers and the EU’s top diplomat Federica Mogherini were holding a discussion on the response to Iran’s announcement on Wednesday of a 60-day deadline for its plan abandon commitments to the agreement.
Mr Pompeo’s trip to Brussels came after the UAE said it was investigating an apparent "sabotage attack" on four vessels, including two Saudi oil tankers, off the coast of Fujairah. Also at the weekend the US announced the return of a Patriot missile defence system to the Arabian Gulf, citing an unspecified threat to US forces in the region. Last week it deployed strategic B-52 bombers in response to alleged Iranian threats.
"We are very worried about the risk of a conflict happening by accident with an escalation that is unintended on either side but ends with some kind of conflict," British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said.
"I think what we need is a period of calm, to make sure everyone understands what the other side is thinking and most of all we must make sure we don't end up putting Iran back on the path to renuclearisation, because if Iran becomes a nuclear power its neighbours are likely to want to become nuclear powers.
"This is already the most unstable region in the world and it would be a massive step in the wrong direction.
Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, said he had warned of the risks of confrontation in his meeting with Mr Pompeo. "We are concerned about the development and the tensions in the region, that we do not want there to be a military escalation," he said.
Ms Mogherini indicated the EU remained supportive of the 2015 nuclear deal. “We will continue to support it as much as we can with all our instruments and all our political will,” she said.
Analysts said the incident had also concentrated minds on the risks in the region.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has engaged in an escalating series of threatening actions and statements in recent weeks. Any attacks by them or their proxies against U.S. citizens or our interests will be answered with a swift and decisive response.
— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo)
May 10, 2019
Mr Pompeo's Brussels visit was seen as an attempt to push the EU to align with US interests but there remains resistance to the US demands on the deal and the re-imposition of sanctions.
"The Trump administration is eager to show that Europe too is growing weary of the Iran nuclear deal. Pompeo’s visit is intended to signal to the Iranians that Europe is growing more sympathetic to US concerns over Iran," Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of Bourse & Bazaar, a commentary site, told
The National.
"But what Pompeo fails to appreciate is that however weary Europe might be of defending the JCPOA, they are even more exasperated about dealing with a Trump administration that keeps lurching from one diplomatic crisis to another.
"The direction of Trump’s Iran policy itself has also sown doubt in Europe as to Pompeo’s authority on foreign policy - in recent weeks he has been repeatedly outmanoeuvred by national security adviser John Bolton," he added.
The European signatories said they regretted the decision by the US to reimpose sanctions on Iran while Mr Trump said that the sanctions “dramatically strengthened our national security” before deriding the nuclear deal as “horrible” and “one-sided”.
Mr Trump has also offered Iran direct talks, saying its leaders should “call me” and suggesting that America would help to revive the country’s economy if it did not stockpile nuclear weapons.
While Mr Pompeo cancelled the Moscow leg of his Russia, he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the Black Sea resort of Sochi as planned on Tuesday, a State Department official said.
Against this backdrop, any suggested implication of Iran in the incident involving the tankers off Fujairah would heap pressure on Europe to support US efforts in the region. Crude oil prices rose as much as 2 per cent.
“There are plenty of reasons to believe Iran is responsible. After all, its leaders have said that if Iran cannot export oil, neither will its competitors in the Gulf. And just last week intelligence surfaced that Iran had empowered proxies to conduct attacks. But it cannot be ruled out that attacks were not directly ordered by Tehran,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, associate fellow, International Institute of Strategic Studies.
Other analysts said judgement would be withheld until the ongoing investigation was conclusive.
“The attack is a dramatic escalation of the long standing tensions between Iran and the Gulf states, most notably Saudi Arabia. Investigations are on going and unless a third party is identified as the culprit, Iran will be seen as the ones behind the attack. If that proves to be the case, the fallout could range from greater political isolation for Iran, through to a head to head conflict," said Ghanem Nuseibeh, the founder of Cornerstone Global Associates. "Europe will find it hard to argue for a softening of the stance with Iran in as far as the current sanctions are concerned. The international community may put strong demands from Iran as a result of this."
In the 2015 agreement, Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear ambitions and refrain from developing ballistic missiles in return for a lifting of sanctions. The US withdrew from the accord last year, prompting European efforts to hold the bargain together.
Mr Pompeo has previously been critical of the EU-backed launch of INSTEX, a ‘Special Purpose Vehicle’ to enable EU nations and Iran to trade essential goods like food and medicine.
The EU ministers said they remain committed to trade with Tehran if it upheld its commitments in the nuclear deal but there are limits to how much they can offer Iran.
Johannes Hahn, a European commissioner, indicated businesses were voting with their feet. "We have created the conditions for European companies to do business with Iran, but nevertheless many companies are concerned that if they do business with Iran, there will be consequences for their activities in the United States, that’s why they are holding back," he said. “I cannot force a private company to do business in Iran."
The US sent a Patriot missile defence system to the Arabian Gulf at the weekend
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