Gujarat is a setback for BJP, but will it make saffron party more humble?

Nilgiri

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I am assuming you read it ? it talks about interviewing 2400 odd people in feb and march of last year . Some how 2400 out of 1.3 billion is suposed to represent reality
I am well aware of the n/N ratio for this survey.

Tell me which ratio you determine things represent reality (and not defeating the main purpose of a survey compared to proxy-census).

With accounting for bias and truly random sampling (issues Pew knows fully well - and they go to quite some detail if you read up their survey process), you will be surprised at what level of n/N produces a quite narrow margin of error:

https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/

Suffice to say, the credibility of a survey result is more sensitive to truly random sampling compared to the raw volume of the survey.

also this was taken before the gst impact and the demonitaision figures came out bro. The ground realities are totally different in India at the moment , never believe the headlines !!!
True, lets see what pew surveys next. I doubt it was affected much (in any massive swing percentage)...especially if you look at the trends they have been measuring since 2014.

for instance the govt took out front page adds to say that almost 6cr jobs were created but no govt ministry can ratify these figures. Arun shouri said it best when he said this govt manages headlines.
Thats a behaviour I don't support (given the labour data to support it only gets released next year). But Pravdaism (on both sides) aside, I am talking about ground popularity for Modi here.

Do you know why is it that the rural sector are the best judge is politicians? its because they are a lot more down to earth , they believe only in what they see and no amount of feel good headlines will make them believe some thing which is not true.
Sure and lets see how they vote in 2019 when it becomes Modi vs Rahul Gandhi again (rather than state level anti incumbency driven). Modi was much less popular in 2014 too...and we saw the result gained that time (well past the opinion + exit polling averages). Sorry but congress needs much more credible face (and underlying attitude) to begin with to play well.

We will see how much DBT driven targetted subsidy programs + free gas connection + electrification + swacch etc does versus the congress narrative...according to the rural people themselves....especially in context if they think congress can do better on the federal programs....that too losing federal+state synergy vectors that will be there in place big time by 2019 (just seeing the map now).

Bro do remember he only got 31% of the vote share , 69% of people did not vote bjp. The is the first majority govt of India to have such a low vote share.
FPTP system voteshare esp on total federal level is not really too relevant w.r.t popularity trends (pew for example reports that modi is popular with 65% of congress voters) because of what voteshare is with respect to more general popularity.

Also if you want voteshare result to more specifically matter as an argument on this anyway, you must make it the system the final political power is allocated on first....and people made aware thats the system now...and accept the problematic consequences too (when you dont have binary party system)....because thats going to seriously affect the turnout swings in all kinds of ways.

Its similar argument for the US for popular vote to matter as some kind of moral claim of Hillary over Donald (which seems to be some kind of flawed argument being used over there).
 
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