If Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz......?

[BATMAN]

If Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz with its navy, how long would it take for the US Navy to destroy its fleet?

Fairly quick, but not without its problems.

The Strait of Hormuz is very narrow. You don’t want to be sinking a bunch of ships there. Most of the strait is not very deep, even less so as you come into the Gulf. A fleet of sunken ships would create a hazard to shipping, and make it impossible for submarines to transit submerged.

The shipping channel is deep, but it’s only a few miles wide, and as you exit the channel into the Gulf it shallows quickly. Now when I say shallow, it’s far more than deep enough for shipping purposes; generally 150′ plus. But the masts of ships resting on the bottom can be over 100′ height, keel to mast. Start piling up ships, you could have a problem.

But in all likelihood they would mine the strait, not block it with ships. They know they aren’t going to last long, fighting blow-for-blow.

 

[BATMAN]

Reply from Pakistani analyst Ahmed Qureshi

To cut a long answer short: Iran's navy, in its current state, stands no chance of blocking the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period of time. Not only is the United States Navy capable of swiftly dealing with the Iranian action but most neighbors of Iran, from Kuwait to Pakistan, are members in a naval coalition that secures navigation in the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea. This coalition works under the command of the US Naval 5th Fleet from Bahrain and includes several western powers as well. Any Iranian decision to block the strait would entail picking up a fight with all these states. For example, Pakistan, which is Iran's eastern neighbor sitting on the mouth of the Gulf, gets more than 90% of its energy supplies through Hormuz, and this is a matter of life and death for this nuclear-armed nation, especially in economically hard times. Would Islamabad stay quiet if Hormuz is blocked?

Another point here is the capabilities of the Iranian navy. Iran's armed forces were professional and formidable force up until the early 1980s. The ayatollahs who seized power in 1979 defanged the Iran Armed Forces, including the navy, and replaced it with then newly created Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC. This extremist religious paramilitary force gradually replaced Iran's Armed Forces, which exist today in a sidelined state. Today, the best budgets and hardware go to IRGC. The IRGC is responsible for terrorism outside Iran and has been involved in destabilizing almost every neighboring country at different times since 1979. The IRGC has excellent naval capabilities, but they are no match to the US naval power. The IRGC risks more debilitating sanctions if it attempts to block the Hormuz. The IRGC already is a declared terror organization by Washington, but any additional foolish actions by Iran or the IRGC can result in more sanctions that would threaten the survival of the Khomeinist government

 

[Scorpion]

Iran can block the strait but for how long before it singes its death certificate? 3, 4 days? Iran seems not to realize that countries like China, India, Japan, the US, France..etc rely on oil coming out from that region. Any attempt to block the strait will be suicidal.

 

[Falcon29]

For an extended period-no. In the short term they could by mining the place up and using cruise missiles.