India ........ The Potential and the Reality

[I.R.A]

I am not an appropriate person to comment anything about India and Indian. However, being the neighbor of a huge country where people behave and react like same as in my country, and most of them live in conditions similar to my country, I have overtime formed an opinion about India, its reality and its potential. Let's first start with the positive element of my opinion

The Indian Potential

There is absolutely no doubt about great potential when we are looking at huge diverse country like India. It has all the right ingredients present to rise and make its mark at the world and achieve its rightful place. Name any resource that makes a country and a nation great .... you will find it in India ...... from the strategic geography to the human resource India is all rich and endowed. It is amazing to see so many diverse people living in (normally) harmony side by side. Though late India has effectively used the modern media to portray its positive image across the world. Its wonderful when you get to look at wildlife of India through a foreign sounding media channel name. This media utilisation has to great extent win India a desired tourist destination and of a country full of scenery and rich historical sites inhabited by common hospitable people welcoming foreign people in their own rich traditions. That is a good sign, when you see India at one end trying to become modern and at the same time not letting go of its centuries old traditions. From North India to South India, the rich culture and changing topography leaves one mesmerized, so few countries on this Earth are blessed with such a diversity in seasons and landscape. And to add to that Indian massive population is its key resource and export, remember the Taj Mahal wasn't built by Martians and the vast railway track that British brought here wasn't laid by any other but Indian Muscle. The IT professionals today have another name Indians. This human resource not only can India reach the top of the wealthiest strong nations but also serves as an attractive market for a foreign investment. Not only that India has successfully helped promote a healthy industrial base of its own. On the defense side its one of the countries that has large active Armed forces to defend against any threats. And India successfully joined the league of nuclear nations club in 1998, not though that being nuclear matters but if it is considered a key ingredient to measure success of a nation ..... then India hasn't fallen short of it. India has all it takes to not only become a regional giant but a power at the world's stage. Ocean, military, landscape, human resource, diversity, size, means of portraying and building a positive narrative, and last but not the least the title like biggest democracy of world ..... all point to a significant powerful nation .... you name it and India has it.

I may not have done justice and expressed sufficiently about the Indian potential ............. but as I informed the readers at the start this is coming from a person who has never been to India and is basing his opinion by witnessing the events as a neighbor ............. this is all the good good part of my opinion and now if you bear with me and read further, I will now unleash my Pakistani side on India and its reality .........

The Indian Reality

Once you have gotten the hint of Indian potential, you may wonder whether has India done justice to its potential? has it really left the marks on world theater that should have been worthy of its potential? My opinion is No ......... India hasn't been able to rise like it should have based on its available resources. Where you get to watch positive news coming from India, you also get to read...... news that makes it look like a third world struggling country with huge population that is still below poverty line. Where you get to witness the diversity and harmony in India you also get to witness discrimination communal rift and deteriorating minority conditions in India. Forget the elite, The middle class of India seems to be disconnected from the reality and remains content with its own progress, for them the percentages matter but the huge numbers of marginalized population remain irrelevant, they really come along as a people who are deeply in a dream of beautiful all good India and have mastered the art of making everything look beautiful to them. That disconnection for me is a problem that leads to many other problems and renders a society from progressing as a whole, it cannot be that one side of the Indian map that is beautiful, has huge sky scrappers, and a substantial middle class is Mother India for you but the other ugly side is not our headache. That gives place to intolerance, grievances, and ignorance, which again leads to intolerance. The reason we see people getting raped and lynched in India. The majority living their dream and trying their best to ignore the minorities suffering and ugliness. People say they elected a hardliner BJP and Modi for their economic agenda ........ but frankly it turns out that they somehow wished to shed away their insecurities, and wanted a hardliner government that would legitimize their intolerance they have been breathing all this long. The other problem with Indian society (like mine) is rampant superstitious nature and backward concepts, some of the rituals that are still being practiced in Indian society today, no doubt are reflective of a deeply backward society, a society that is millions of miles away from civilisation. That shows how much work still needs to be done ...... the reach of the State to educate its people, and elevate them is still missing on a large scale?

Now coming to the other aspect of Indian reality India as a state in its neighborhood and at world stage .......... well to keep the discussion open I will leave that area for our respected Indian members to comment on. My views of their governments may be biased and my opinion may be based on my ignorance. The reason that I am Pakistani should be enough to not say a word and leave it open for Indians to discuss.

@Joe Shearer @jbgt90 @khafee and other members.

 

[Khafee]

The biggest hurdle in South Asia achieving it's full potential, has been the corrupt politicians. Who need boogeymen to survive, and line their pockets.

Billions of Dollars are wasted on procuring arms, that are not needed, simply because this is the easiest way to make money. Forget the common man, most members of Parliament cannot question defence deals, at the risk of being labeled traitors.

Systems are bought as packages, hardware + spares+ training + ammo, everything clubbed together into an obscure figure, so that kickbacks get lost somewhere.

These precious funds, that should be spent on Housing, Health and Education is squandered. Superficial lip service paid to actual issues, and needless confrontations, and silly issues created to hide incompetence, and corruption.

I hope and pray this vicious cycle is broken, so that the common man benefits, and the whole region moves forward, as powerhouse it was meant to be.

Best Regards

 

[I.R.A]

The biggest hurdle in South Asia achieving it's full potential, has been the corrupt politicians. Who need boogeymen to survive, and line their pockets.

Billions of Dollars are wasted on procuring arms, that are not needed, simply because this is the easiest way to make money. Forget the common man, most members of Parliament cannot question defence deals, at the risk of being labeled traitors.

Systems are bought as packages, hardware + spares+ training + ammo, everything clubbed together into an obscure figure, so that kickbacks get lost somewhere.

These precious funds, that should be spent on Housing, Health and Education is squandered. Superficial lip service paid to actual issues, and needless confrontations, and silly issues created to hide incompetence, and corruption.

I hope and pray this vicious cycle is broken, so that the common man benefits, and the whole region moves forward, as powerhouse it was meant to be.

Best Regards

But Khafee the Indian electoral process is transparent that is why a person like modi who started from the lower ranks has reached the top. And the other thing is modi is people's man, majority Indians have a very positive view of him. Their military is apparently answerable to the civilian government and their institutions are independent to a greater extent. I am not denying that corruption doesn't happen there but don't you think that somehow they should have robust checks and balances to mitigate it? Plus their defense deals (based on what we get to read from Indian members) don't go heavy on their deep pockets?

 

[Khafee]

But Khafee the Indian electoral process is transparent that is why a person like modi who started from the lower ranks has reached the top. And the other thing is modi is people's man, majority Indians have a very positive view of him. Their military is apparently answerable to the civilian government and their institutions are independent to a greater extent. I am not denying that corruption doesn't happen there but don't you think that somehow they should have robust checks and balances to mitigate it? Plus their defense deals (based on what we get to read from Indian members) don't go heavy on their deep pockets?

Lets wait for @Joe Shearer and @jbgt90 to comment before we dive deeper.

 

[Joe Shearer]

@I. R. A

Nice topic to have chosen, but I would like to make a preliminary remark, a clearing of the throat, if I may.

What the devil do you mean by this statement, "...I am not an appropriate person to comment anything about India and Indian."

This is not a new forum, I believe; there are people here who have a lot more time on board than we have. BUT, for some reason that I cannot pinpoint, it has the 'feel' of a brand new, shining bright, wholesome fresh site. Now, do we make this one of those quarrelsome stinking dens of stupidity and bigotry that some of our favourite sites have turned into? Or do we share our thoughts with confidence that our fellow members will recognise and appreciate the obvious goodwill that we bring to a topic, and with maturity and balance when our own institutions, culture and social relations are under discussion? Even - as a rare exception - religious issues.

Some five years ago, a Punjabi Sikh, a Pashtun Pakistani, both settled abroad, in different countries, and a Bengali Hindu got together and started exchanging views. The first three months were spent reassuring our Pakistani brother (literally, for me, next only to my biological brother in the love I bear him and his family) that he could say anything he liked, and he would not be wounding our feelings. Even today, after all these years, this most learned and this most urbane and civilised person is sometimes hesitant and tentative in his expressions, and has to be reminded brusquely that to hold back and to wrap his point of view in obfuscation is an insult to us.

I sincerely hope that will be the tone here, of enlightened and liberal discussion on even the most sensitive subjects, without hesitation and without holding back anything for any false fear of a confused and emotional reaction.

@I. R. A, I hope you will bring up more topics like this. If we have the misfortune to be harbouring a saffron bhakt, or a green bhakt, or even someone who cannot control his emotions and responds with lack of restraint, we are lucky to have moderators, at least about one of whom I personally know can moderate our interaction with sympathy, tact and the necessary firmness of hand to control a situation.

In detail once I've made myself a snack; the water went off at 11'o'clock.

 

[Hithchiker]

I will try to write a detail answer keeping in mind the GDP per capita in 1960''s and now..It is the useful tool to compare countries ..In -fact i would like to hear as to what hinder the progress and why India with same population and more educated youth at that time have been left behind of China in economical race and didn't realize full potential

 

[I.R.A]

What the devil do you mean by this statement, "...I am not an appropriate person to comment anything about India and Indian."

Sir I inserted this caveat specially for our non Indian and non Pakistani readers so that they know ...... and form an opinion of their own after they have read the Indian members here.

You are right , the Armed services answer to the civilian govt and have always done so , After independence they withdrew to the cantonments and have stayed there , never getting involved in any thing political . Yes the institutions especially the judiciary is very independent and constantly remind the Govt in power that they are the true up holders of the law.
The election process was very transparent till recently where this particular govt has tried to influence the election commission many a times but have had to bow down to opposition pressure.

Corruption has been a part of indian society from before i was born , yes there are checks and balances (cag , cvc ,acb) but the officers some times them selfs are compromised . There is a school of thought in India which still exists which says , indulge in corruption but make sure the rest of the money is used well . Can give you an example , in 2012 the akali bjp govt came back to power , even though history showed that state swings between the two parties every five years. When political pundits dug into the win they found that most people in Punjab knew about the corruption but agreed that while the akalies took some they also let the people have a share.

Corruption is a rot that seeps slowly and gradually but once it has settled ....... it will destroy every good in a society. If you ask me as a Pakistani, I would tell you that corruption is the mother of all ills in our part of the world. It has become a norm and a problem that may not last for few months, days, hours in a lawful society take forever in our system. I agree that we cannot totally wipe it out, but stronger checks and balances can mitigate its drastic affects. India has remained democratic and under civilian rule, the legislatures got every chance to make new laws, rules and regulations ...... I guess the institutions like judiciary in India never faced interruption and pressure from the government .......... election commission is a role model for us Pakistanis .......... but still comparison of the two societies, how they react, act and behave tells us the difference hasn't been that astounding? Why all that autonomy couldn't make its marks?

 

[Joe Shearer]

Sir I inserted this caveat specially for our non Indian and non Pakistani readers so that they know ...... and form an opinion of their own after they have read the Indian members here.

I concede your point about encouraging the non-Indian non-Pakistani members to form their own opinions after reading a cross-section of views. However, I am still unhappy at an allusion that your remarks might not be welcome because of your nationality. You will surely agree that we have an opportunity to build an atmosphere of trust and confidence on this forum between different members, and I am determined to fight hard for your right to talk about India, and for any Indian member to talk about Pakistan.

I still owe you an answer on your main theme. I will be free of work and personal pressures by the early evening, and hope to reply then.

Corruption is a rot that seeps slowly and gradually but once it has settled ....... it will destroy every good in a society. If you ask me as a Pakistani, I would tell you that corruption is the mother of all ills in our part of the world. It has become a norm and a problem that may not last for few months, days, hours in a lawful society take forever in our system. I agree that we cannot totally wipe it out, but stronger checks and balances can mitigate its drastic affects. India has remained democratic and under civilian rule, the legislatures got every chance to make new laws, rules and regulations ...... I guess the institutions like judiciary in India never faced interruption and pressure from the government .......... election commission is a role model for us Pakistanis .......... but still comparison of the two societies, how they react, act and behave tells us the difference hasn't been that astounding? Why all that autonomy couldn't make its marks?

 

[I.R.A]

I concede your point about encouraging the non-Indian non-Pakistani members to form their own opinions after reading a cross-section of views. However, I am still unhappy at an allusion that your remarks might not be welcome because of your nationality. You will surely agree that we have an opportunity to build an atmosphere of trust and confidence on this forum between different members, and I am determined to fight hard for your right to talk about India, and for any Indian member to talk about Pakistan.

Sir thank you for your support, I normally don't shy away sharing my thoughts and views unless I feel keeping silent would be a better option. In a conversation with friends who understand each other properly its not a big deal, they know it already ...... but in a conversation with any type of bakht its different, and these bakhts do make your mood bitter for others.

I am all for building a debating relation where we can respect each other's point of views and value the positive message. Learn and contribute. Our countries after all are a huge mass of land ...... that doesn't care who is living and walking on it, neither it shows emotions or attachment ...... that's us who go totally blind in our nationalism ...... to the worst extreme and our negative sides.

I still owe you an answer on your main theme. I will be free of work and personal pressures by the early evening, and hope to reply then.

I will wait sir ........... and sir just a soft reminder you have been lazy .......... you still owe me details on how and why few foreigners from East India company were able to subjugate and rule our vast majority?

 

[A123]

New India:

 

[Nilgiri]

In -fact i would like to hear as to what hinder the progress and why India with same population and more educated youth at that time

That is a fallacy. Developing asia more or less had the same levels of "educated youth" in relative terms, i.e nothing much to write home about.

Some went about allowing laissez faire so the cream of the milk (youth that did have the opportunity through circumstance) could go about developing capital that would help the pyramid base over time....others bunkered down into micromanaging the economy (specifically the liquidity levers) through govt intervention and pretty much squandered the raw forces of the former much better, historically proven model.

My dad for example had to spend more time arguing (given absolutely everything had to be approved by higher ups) over simplest of acquisitions for his office in a certain govt PSU back in the 80s (his first job)...than actually doing productive work in developing new products etc.

It has gotten better with private sector allowed some room in the Indian economy, but very much a problem still in large portions of it.

have been left behind of China in economical race and didn't realize full potential

China got around to dealing with the self-imposed shackles on the aforementioned liquidity levers much sooner than India (about 10 years) and also had the political consolidation to do so more deeply (India still has not reached much of what Deng did in the 80s). Every year, every inch of reform has a multiplier effect.

For the cream to reach full potential and sizeably pull along the base, one can simply look at the credit access to private sector of GDP for example:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS?locations=IN-CN

India is still at the ratio China was when they were just starting the reforms under Deng. India also not helped from that marked deceleration (if you look at the 2003 - 2008 ramp especially) after 2008 (UPA terms doing little to harness what NDA did prior to it and finally getting their foreign shock bluff vulnerability called)....if it was sustained India would be around at 80% of GDP now I figure, and probably at the minimum around a 4T USD nominal economy (instead of 2.5T) and maybe around 12 T of PPP (instead of 9.5T).

Fundamentally why is this? Simply put, Indian govt over extracting from liquidity pools (internal available and external potential), spending it way more inefficiently (than the equivalent in private hands) and the cumulative effect of that over time....preventing a huge self perpetuating momentum from really forming like in China'as case taking it from 50% of GDP to 80% and then 120%.

This is the single largest reason why India's nominal output (measured by a world liquidity reference that is the USD) is a 1/5th of China's and its physical output (PPP) under half that of China. India is still very liquidity starved country and exploiting true potential needs good liquidity access (over decades) for the private sector.

The argument that many Chinese posters like to use (social development etc) are somewhat valid, but way secondary and tertiary to this main one.

 

[Hithchiker]

That is a fallacy. Developing asia more or less had the same levels of "educated youth" in relative terms, i.e nothing much to write home about.

Some went about allowing laissez faire so the cream of the milk (youth that did have the opportunity through circumstance) could go about developing capital that would help the pyramid base over time....others bunkered down into micromanaging the economy (specifically the liquidity levers) through govt intervention and pretty much squandered the raw forces of the former much better, historically proven model.

My dad for example had to spend more time arguing (given absolutely everything had to be approved by higher ups) over simplest of acquisitions for his office in a certain govt PSU back in the 80s (his first job)...than actually doing productive work in developing new products etc.

It has gotten better with private sector allowed some room in the Indian economy, but very much a problem still in large portions of it.



China got around to dealing with the self-imposed shackles on the aforementioned liquidity levers much sooner than India (about 10 years) and also had the political consolidation to do so more deeply (India still has not reached much of what Deng did in the 80s). Every year, every inch of reform has a multiplier effect.

For the cream to reach full potential and sizeably pull along the base, one can simply look at the credit access to private sector of GDP for example:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS?locations=IN-CN

India is still at the ratio China was when they were just starting the reforms under Deng. India also not helped from that marked deceleration (if you look at the 2003 - 2008 ramp especially) after 2008 (UPA terms doing little to harness what NDA did prior to it and finally getting their foreign shock bluff vulnerability called)....if it was sustained India would be around at 80% of GDP now I figure, and probably at the minimum around a 4T USD nominal economy (instead of 2.5T) and maybe around 12 T of PPP (instead of 9.5T).

Fundamentally why is this? Simply put, Indian govt over extracting from liquidity pools (internal available and external potential), spending it way more inefficiently (than the equivalent in private hands) and the cumulative effect of that over time....preventing a huge self perpetuating momentum from really forming like in China'as case taking it from 50% of GDP to 80% and then 120%.

This is the single largest reason why India's nominal output (measured by a world liquidity reference that is the USD) is a 1/5th of China's and its physical output (PPP) under half that of China. India is still very liquidity starved country and exploiting true potential needs good liquidity access (over decades) for the private sector.

The argument that many Chinese posters like to use (social development etc) are somewhat valid, but way secondary and tertiary to this main one.

Thoughtful and pleasant to read detail analysis with eager to read a bit about two of the economies but how did you deduce this ? "spending it way more inefficiently " ..Does it means the sector focus ? keeping aside the other factor of liberalizing the economy late or perhaps it was Manmohan as Finance Minister who accelerated this

 

[Nilgiri]

but how did you deduce this ? "spending it way more inefficiently " ..Does it means the sector focus ?

I mean if you give a dollar to a typical privately owned enterprise, and give the same dollar to a govt.

More wealth/output will be created by the former compared to the latter generally. This has been proven by countless amounts of data...on the large political scale, we saw the destiny of the US vs USSR play out in the cold war because of the underlying truth of which system overall works better for the human species. It inherently has to do with human psychology, we overall do lot better with what we own and take direct responsibility for than whatever our actual concern is for the larger existence/prosperity etc of others. It would be great (for the communist/leftist/socialist argument) if we didnt think this way as a species, but we have to be pragmatic first and foremost as to what we are and probably forever will be.

In more direct "economic" terms, a dollar in private hands is generally invested higher up the liquidity cycle than a dollar in govt hands. This means the private dollar will generate more dollars through the multiplier effect (essentially the number of chances it has to change hands) overall than a govt dollar (because govts tend to fuel low multiplier activities such as direct low velocity to static base consumption which is more tied in to popular sentiment/optics). Thus I argue the latter (govt imprint) must be mitigated (and not given a free rein to do as it pleases, everything must be justified and debated and have REAL evidence to base it all upon), and the former (private) is really the default of what we are as a species that should not be hewn away at unnecessarily and recklessly.

This is not to say govt does not have an ambit (given wealth/output should not be the sum total of the objective for a society...but simply an important one)....but govt (and invested social authority more generally) has massive diminishing returns past where it has proven itself over 10k+ years of civilisation (i.e essentially how we figured out agriculture and became lot more sedentary and thought-oriented compared to active + instinct based). Problem is when we invest too much idealism over pragmatism (or other way around), because invariably ideals are relatively subjective but do hold importance. Where do we strike the balance? To me ending the opportunity to even debate this/rationally experiment with is what has unfortunately clouded the far left and even larger left compared to the "right"....and we get a black and white, polarised and revolution-based environment, which does very unpleasant things to most actual regular people just to satisfy egos of a few (and invariably they very rarely are even around generations later when the SHTF from what they concocted often hypocritically, refer to Marx).

keeping aside the other factor of liberalizing the economy late or perhaps it was Manmohan as Finance Minister who accelerated this

He played his role during that time period. But really it was common sense reform, I think almost any standard finance minister of the time could have handled it given the shackles (and the best sequence to unlock them) were so brazenly obvious. The problem was capital account based at that time (in like a priority, country staring at bankruptcy kind of way), thus it made sense thats where the govt had to loosen its interference/control of....and later guide more reforms in on the back of that.

In fact the process had already started under the previous administration of PM Chandra Sekhar and I believe the team he put together to study and come up with a plan (with IMF consulting) quickly included a certain Yashwant Sinha. This was later a blueprint for Manmohan Singh operating under Narasimha Rao (who I give most of credit to because it was really his political neck on the line if things didnt go well)...but I share the credit to all of them, they were certainly not nincompoops that some today make them out to be:

https://qz.com/721742/memories-of-1...re-the-indian-economy-was-finally-unshackled/

Problem with India is there is little concept in doing something ahead of the curve (and using the vast size of India to hedge and experiment, i,e try something new out in a state for example), everything till recently is quite reactive than proactive.

 

[Hithchiker]

I mean if you give a dollar to a typical privately owned enterprise, and give the same dollar to a govt.

More wealth/output will be created by the former compared to the latter generally. This has been proven by countless amounts of data...on the large political scale, we saw the destiny of the US vs USSR play out in the cold war because of the underlying truth of which system overall works better for the human species. It inherently has to do with human psychology, we overall do lot better with what we own and take direct responsibility for than whatever our actual concern is for the larger existence/prosperity etc of others. It would be great (for the communist/leftist/socialist argument) if we didnt think this way as a species, but we have to be pragmatic first and foremost as to what we are and probably forever will be.

In more direct "economic" terms, a dollar in private hands is generally invested higher up the liquidity cycle than a dollar in govt hands. This means the private dollar will generate more dollars through the multiplier effect (essentially the number of chances it has to change hands) overall than a govt dollar (because govts tend to fuel low multiplier activities such as direct low velocity to static base consumption which is more tied in to popular sentiment/optics). Thus I argue the latter (govt imprint) must be mitigated (and not given a free rein to do as it pleases, everything must be justified and debated and have REAL evidence to base it all upon), and the former (private) is really the default of what we are as a species that should not be hewn away at unnecessarily and recklessly.

This is not to say govt does not have an ambit (given wealth/output should not be the sum total of the objective for a society...but simply an important one)....but govt (and invested social authority more generally) has massive diminishing returns past where it has proven itself over 10k+ years of civilisation (i.e essentially how we figured out agriculture and became lot more sedentary and thought-oriented compared to active + instinct based). Problem is when we invest too much idealism over pragmatism (or other way around), because invariably ideals are relatively subjective but do hold importance. Where do we strike the balance? To me ending the opportunity to even debate this/rationally experiment with is what has unfortunately clouded the far left and even larger left compared to the "right"....and we get a black and white, polarised and revolution-based environment, which does very unpleasant things to most actual regular people just to satisfy egos of a few (and invariably they very rarely are even around generations later when the SHTF from what they concocted often hypocritically, refer to Marx).



He played his role during that time period. But really it was common sense reform, I think almost any standard finance minister of the time could have handled it given the shackles (and the best sequence to unlock them) were so brazenly obvious. The problem was capital account based at that time (in like a priority, country staring at bankruptcy kind of way), thus it made sense thats where the govt had to loosen its interference/control of....and later guide more reforms in on the back of that.

In fact the process had already started under the previous administration of PM Chandra Sekhar and I believe the team he put together to study and come up with a plan (with IMF consulting) quickly included a certain Yashwant Sinha. This was later a blueprint for Manmohan Singh operating under Narasimha Rao (who I give most of credit to because it was really his political neck on the line if things didnt go well)...but I share the credit to all of them, they were certainly not nincompoops that some today make them out to be:

https://qz.com/721742/memories-of-1...re-the-indian-economy-was-finally-unshackled/

Problem with India is there is little concept in doing something ahead of the curve (and using the vast size of India to hedge and experiment, i,e try something new out in a state for example), everything till recently is quite reactive than proactive.

Thank you for detailed answer to look into more in Indian economy..

 

[Nilgiri]

Thank you for detailed answer to look into more in Indian economy..

Please tag me whenever for pakistan economy too, economy discussion in general etc.