Iranian Affairs

[Persian Gulf]

This thread also disputes the veracity of the video the US put out and is worth a read:

 

[Scorpion]

Japan PM Shinzo Abe arrives in Iran in bid to ease tensions as mediator

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Tehran on Wednesday as he tries to position himself as a mediator between Iran and the United States to help reduce heightened tensions between them. Abe, the first sitting Japanese prime minister to visit Iran since Takeo Fukuda in 1978, will hold talks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later in the day.

Abe's itinerary also includes a meeting with Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday. It will be the first time a Japanese prime minister has met with the supreme leader, who ultimately determines the country's policy direction.

"There are concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East. While the situation attracts the attention of the international community, for peace and stability in the region Japan wants to play a role as much as it can," Abe told reporters at Tokyo's Haneda airport before departing for a two-day visit to Tehran. "To ease tensions, I'd like to have a frank exchange of views" by taking advantage of Tokyo's traditionally friendly ties with Tehran, Abe said.

Abe's symbolic visit comes as Washington has left the door open for dialogue despite its abrupt withdrawal last year from the nuclear accord and the reinstating of economic sanctions. Japan is not a member of the deal but has been a supporter.

The trip gives Abe a rare opportunity to raise his diplomatic profile ahead of a Group of 20 summit in Japan on June 28 and 29 before an election for the upper house this summer. The challenges for Abe appear to be manifold, including smoothing the way for potential dialogue between Iran and the United States, Japan's longtime security ally, by helping bridge the rift between them. But Abe would not simply be a mediator, Japanese officials say, as Tokyo's aim is to ensure stability in the Middle East, a critical factor for resource-scarce Japan. Iran had long been one of the major oil exporters until the United States ended its sanctions waivers granted to Iranian crude buyers.

Before making the trip official, Abe secured backing from U.S. President Donald Trump, who was on a state visit to Japan in late May, for his efforts to reach out to Iran. Abe also spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the crown princes of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi.

Tensions in the Middle East have risen in recent weeks, roughly a year after Trump's decision to leave the international nuclear accord that led to the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for its curbing of nuclear activities. Iran said in May it was suspending some of its commitments under the deal. Tehran set a 60-day deadline to negotiate new terms, saying it would keep more enriched uranium than allowed under the agreement initially reached with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. Washington has dispatched an aircraft carrier strike group and bombers to the Persian Gulf, and decided to send additional U.S. troops to the region.

Trump's more aggressive approach to Tehran has prompted a delicate balancing act by Japan, which marks the 90th anniversary of its diplomatic relations with Iran this year. Since returning to power in 2012, Abe has held seven meetings with Rouhani.

Abe urges Rouhani to avoid escalation of Iran-U.S. tensions

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe departs Tokyo for a two-day visit to Tehran, saying he wants to have candid talks with the Iranian leadership to secure stability in the Middle East, in a high-stakes attempt to act as a mediator between Iran and the United States.

english.kyodonews.net

LoL at the red roses. He came trying to de-escalate the tension but got his oil tanker bombed by the IRGC.

 

[Scorpion]

This thread also disputes the veracity of the video the US put out and is worth a read:

I still believe it because of the Mullah destructive history in the region. Not to mention the boat used belongs to the IRGC despite the claim that they were there to rescue the staff.

 

[Persian Gulf]

LoL at the red roses. He came trying to de-escalate the tension but got his oil tanker bombed by the IRGC.

"bombed"?

The US are saying it was mines, but the crew themselves it is impossible that it was a mine because the attack definitely came from the air.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I still believe it because of the Mullah destructive history in the region. Not to mention the boat used belongs to the IRGC despite the claim that they were there to rescue the staff.

Well you can believe what you like... Iran did not claim that specific boat in the video was even Iranian, let alone that it was there to rescue the crew. The crew were rescued before that video was taken and indeed taken to Iran (video of them being in Iran on the previous page).

Babak is known for quite ridiculous claims and his career is based on such anti-IRGC propaganda (I used to like him but now he is just a useful idiot and he is extremely fond of Israel). But I accept that the ship was likely Iranian, I just disagree that it means Iran was responsible for the separate act of the attack on the ship.

If the thread that deconstructs the video as pure propaganda doesn't convince you then I think you don't want to be convinced.

 

[Khafee]

I think it's total rubbish, why would Iran attack a Japanese ship whilst Shinzo Abe is in Iran, the first visit by a Japanese PM to Iran since 1978?

Irrespective, of what it is, the Mullah regime is playing a very dangerous game.

When the majority of the international community is against you, Iran needs to step back and de-escalate. It's big ego, is going to cause destruction for itself first, than the rest of the region.

 

[Khafee]

Iran president renews ultimatum over compliance with nuclear pact
Reuters
June 15, 2019

View attachment 8081
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during a session of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Friday, June 14, 2019. (AP)

DUSHANBE: Iran will continue scaling back its compliance with its nuclear deal commitments in the absence of “positive signals” from other signatories to the pact, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told a meeting of Russia, China and other Asia leaders in Tajikistan.

Iran stopped complying in May with some commitments in a 2015 nuclear deal that was agreed with global powers, a year after the United States unilaterally withdrew from the accord and tightened sanctions.

Tehran has said in May that, unless world powers protected its economy from US sanctions within 60 days, Iran would start enriching uranium at higher level.

Iran president renews ultimatum over compliance with nuclear pact

DUSHANBE: Iran will continue scaling back its compliance with its nuclear deal commitments in the absence of “positive signals” from other signatories to the pact, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told a meeting of Russia, China and other Asia leaders in Tajikistan. Iran stopped complying in May...

www.arabnews.com

 

[Persian Gulf]

Irrespective, of what it is, the Mullah regime is playing a very dangerous game.

When the majority of the international community is against you, Iran needs to step back and de-escalate. It's big ego, is going to cause destruction for itself first, than the rest of the region.

The majority of the international community is with the JCPOA which was unanimously endorsed by the UNSC, only the US left that. The majority of the international community (EU, Russia, China, NAM etc) are very opposed to a US war against Iran (with the exception of Israel and maybe KSA).

Iran is in a lose-lose situation to be honest, should we sit quietly and die (/wait for EU to uphold their obligations and make INSTEX work/hope for Trump to lose in 2020) or decide that another round of negotiations with the US are inevitable, thus escalate the situation a bit to create some leverage? At least if Iran withdraws from the JCPOA like the US did it could build up a large stock of more advanced centrifuges and test a longer range BM of around 4000km (a Khorramshahr with a lighter warhead would already do this) to build some leverage for the next negotiations if Iran's leadership decides that it has no choice but to negotiate again.

People mock Ahmadinejad, and for good reason (he was a populist disaster for the economy), but it was only because under him that we built 20,000+ IR-1 centrifuges (strong leverage) that the P5+1 accepted that we can keep 5000 IR-1 centrifuges under the JCPOA.

As for the Gulf of Oman incident(s), the Japanese crew said they were not attacked by a mine, but from the air. So the mine story doesn't add up. The video the US released was clearly edited to be a propaganda tool and doesn't show that Iran planted the mines in the first place. Don't take my word for it, this is what the totally INDEPENDENT analysts at Bellingcat say:

Opinion | Was Iran Behind the Oman Tanker Attacks? A Look at the Evidence (Published 2019)

Internet databases confirm much about the incident, but the Trump administration hasn’t provided convincing evidence of Tehran’s culpability.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Khafee]

The majority of the international community is with the JCPOA which was unanimously endorsed by the UNSC, only the US left that. The majority of the international community (EU, Russia, China, NAM etc) are very opposed to a US war against Iran (with the exception of Israel and maybe KSA).

Iran is in a lose-lose situation to be honest, should we sit quietly and die (/wait for EU to uphold their obligations and make INSTEX work/hope for Trump to lose in 2020) or decide that another round of negotiations with the US are inevitable, thus escalate the situation a bit to create some leverage? At least if Iran withdraws from the JCPOA like the US did it could build up a large stock of more advanced centrifuges and test a longer range BM of around 4000km (a Khorramshahr with a lighter warhead would already do this) to build some leverage for the next negotiations if Iran's leadership decides that it has no choice but to negotiate again.

People mock Ahmadinejad, and for good reason (he was a populist disaster for the economy), but it was only because under him that we built 20,000+ IR-1 centrifuges (strong leverage) that the P5+1 accepted that we can keep 5000 IR-1 centrifuges under the JCPOA.

As for the Gulf of Oman incident(s), the Japanese crew said they were not attacked by a mine, but from the air. So the mine story doesn't add up. The video the US released was clearly edited to be a propaganda tool and doesn't show that Iran planted the mines in the first place. Don't take my word for it, this is what the totally INDEPENDENT analysts at Bellingcat say:

View attachment 8104

Opinion | Was Iran Behind the Oman Tanker Attacks? A Look at the Evidence (Published 2019)

Internet databases confirm much about the incident, but the Trump administration hasn’t provided convincing evidence of Tehran’s culpability.

www.nytimes.com

You didn't get my point i.e. it doesn't matter whether you are right or wrong. What is imperative is to stop the beating of the war drums, and come to the negotiation table. A de-escalation is needed ASAP.

God forbid, in case of war, Iran first, and then the region looses, the US looses nothing. The situation is well beyond the point of who is right and who is wrong.

 

[Persian Gulf]

You didn't get my point i.e. it doesn't matter whether you are right or wrong. What is imperative is to stop the beating of the war drums, and come to the negotiation table. A de-escalation is needed ASAP.

God forbid, in case of war, Iran first, and then the region looses, the US looses nothing. The situation is well beyond the point of who is right and who is wrong.

If the US loses nothing in a war with Iran they would have launched this war a long time ago.

As I said, even if (another round of) negotiations is inevitable, some escalation from Iran makes sense to create some leverage before these negotiations (e.g. test a 4000km BM so a cap to 2000km is a 'compromise', install 5000 IR2M/IR6 centrifuges etc).

I don't think Iranians are worried about a war coming soon or something, the concern is economic not military because most Iranians don't think there will be a war (and I agree).

It is hard to convince Iran to negotiate again after what happened with the US this time, what will stop the next US president doing the exact same thing? But I agree that there are not many alternatives, this economic situation cannot continue forever...

 

[Khafee]

Iran to scale back nuclear deal commitments: Tasnim
16 June 2019

View attachment 8142
FILE PHOTO: The Iranian flag flutters in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters in Vienna, Austria March 4, 2019. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo


DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran will announce further moves on Monday to scale back compliance with an international nuclear pact that the United States abandoned last year, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday.

“Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation tomorrow at the Arak heavy water site will announce preparatory steps that have been taken to further decrease Tehran’s commitments under the deal,” Tasnim said, without citing sources.

The organization will announce moves to increase stocks of enriched uranium and production of heavy water at Arak, Tasnim reported.
The United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency believe Iran had a nuclear weapons program that it abandoned. Tehran denies ever having had one.

Iran stopped complying in May with some commitments in the 2015 nuclear deal that was agreed with global powers, after the United States unilaterally withdrew from the accord in 2018 and re-introduced sanctions on Tehran.

Iran said in May it would start enriching uranium at a higher level, unless world powers protected its economy from U.S. sanctions within 60 days.

Tensions between the United States and Iran have ratcheted up further in recent days, with Washington accusing Tehran of carrying out Thursday’s attacks on two oil tankers in a vital oil shipping route. Iran has denied having any role.

Reporting by Parisa Hafezi and Babak Dehghanpisheh; Writing by Tuqa Khalid and Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Mark Potter

Iran to scale back nuclear deal commitments: Tasnim

Iran will announce further moves on Monday to scale back compliance with an international nuclear pact that the United States abandoned last year, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday.

www.reuters.com

 

[yavar]

Iran The decisive response leader Ayatollah Khamenei to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe: I don't consider Trump worth sending a message to, we won't negotiate with U.S.

I don't consider Trump worth sending a message to, we won't negotiate with U.S.

Mr. Shinzō Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, met with Ayatollah Khamenei-- the Leader of the Islamic Revolution-- this morning June 13, 2019.

english.khamenei.ir

 

[yavar]

Japan PM Shinzo Abe arrives in Iran in bid to ease tensions as mediator

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Tehran on Wednesday as he tries to position himself as a mediator between Iran and the United States to help reduce heightened tensions between them. Abe, the first sitting Japanese prime minister to visit Iran since Takeo Fukuda in 1978, will hold talks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later in the day.

Abe's itinerary also includes a meeting with Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Thursday. It will be the first time a Japanese prime minister has met with the supreme leader, who ultimately determines the country's policy direction.

"There are concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East. While the situation attracts the attention of the international community, for peace and stability in the region Japan wants to play a role as much as it can," Abe told reporters at Tokyo's Haneda airport before departing for a two-day visit to Tehran. "To ease tensions, I'd like to have a frank exchange of views" by taking advantage of Tokyo's traditionally friendly ties with Tehran, Abe said.

Abe's symbolic visit comes as Washington has left the door open for dialogue despite its abrupt withdrawal last year from the nuclear accord and the reinstating of economic sanctions. Japan is not a member of the deal but has been a supporter.

The trip gives Abe a rare opportunity to raise his diplomatic profile ahead of a Group of 20 summit in Japan on June 28 and 29 before an election for the upper house this summer. The challenges for Abe appear to be manifold, including smoothing the way for potential dialogue between Iran and the United States, Japan's longtime security ally, by helping bridge the rift between them. But Abe would not simply be a mediator, Japanese officials say, as Tokyo's aim is to ensure stability in the Middle East, a critical factor for resource-scarce Japan. Iran had long been one of the major oil exporters until the United States ended its sanctions waivers granted to Iranian crude buyers.

Before making the trip official, Abe secured backing from U.S. President Donald Trump, who was on a state visit to Japan in late May, for his efforts to reach out to Iran. Abe also spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the crown princes of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi.

Tensions in the Middle East have risen in recent weeks, roughly a year after Trump's decision to leave the international nuclear accord that led to the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for its curbing of nuclear activities. Iran said in May it was suspending some of its commitments under the deal. Tehran set a 60-day deadline to negotiate new terms, saying it would keep more enriched uranium than allowed under the agreement initially reached with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. Washington has dispatched an aircraft carrier strike group and bombers to the Persian Gulf, and decided to send additional U.S. troops to the region.

Trump's more aggressive approach to Tehran has prompted a delicate balancing act by Japan, which marks the 90th anniversary of its diplomatic relations with Iran this year. Since returning to power in 2012, Abe has held seven meetings with Rouhani.

Abe urges Rouhani to avoid escalation of Iran-U.S. tensions

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe departs Tokyo for a two-day visit to Tehran, saying he wants to have candid talks with the Iranian leadership to secure stability in the Middle East, in a high-stakes attempt to act as a mediator between Iran and the United States.

english.kyodonews.net

Iran The decisive response leader Ayatollah Khamenei to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe: I don't consider Trump worth sending a message to, we won't negotiate with U.S.

I don't consider Trump worth sending a message to, we won't negotiate with U.S.

Mr. Shinzō Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, met with Ayatollah Khamenei-- the Leader of the Islamic Revolution-- this morning June 13, 2019.

english.khamenei.ir

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran The decisive response leader Ayatollah Khamenei to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe: I don't consider Trump worth sending a message to, we won't negotiate with U.S.

I don't consider Trump worth sending a message to, we won't negotiate with U.S.

Mr. Shinzō Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, met with Ayatollah Khamenei-- the Leader of the Islamic Revolution-- this morning June 13, 2019.

english.khamenei.ir

I think this will change in 2020 if Trump wins again. Best for Iran to slowly regain leverage by reducing JCPOA commitments and building longer range BM until then.

 

[Khafee]

The Latest: Iran spokesman: Iran needs 20% enriched uranium
10 minutes ago
17 June 2019

View attachment 8177
FILE - This Sept. 21, 1987 file photo shows mines aboard the Iranian ship Iran Ajr being inspected by a boarding party from the USS Lasalle in the Persian Gulf. Mysterious attacks on oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz show how susceptible one of the world's crucial chokepoints for global energy supplies remains, 30 years after the U.S. Navy and Iran found themselves entangled a similarly shadowy conflict. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan, File)


TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — The Latest on developments in the Persian Gulf region amid rising tensions between Iran and the U.S. (all times local):

1:10 p.m.
A spokesman for Iran’s nuclear program says the country has a need for uranium enriched up to 20%, only a step away from weapon-grade levels.

Behrouz Kamalvandi made the comment in a news conference carried on live television Monday.

Kamalvandi said Iran’s needs 5% enrichment for its nuclear power plant in southern Iranian port of Bushehr and it needs 20% enrichment for a Tehran research reactor.

When uranium is mined, it typically has about 140 atoms of this unwanted isotope for every atom of U-235. Refining it to a purity of 3.67%, the level now allowed by the nuclear deal, means removing 114 unwanted atoms of U-238 for every atom of U-235.

Boosting its purity to 20% means removing 22 more unwanted isotopes per atom of U-235, while going from there to 90% purity means removing just four more per atom of U-235, he noted. Ninety percent is considered weapons-grade material.

That means going from 20% to 90% is a relatively quicker process, something that worries nuclear nonproliferation experts.
___

12:55 p.m.
A spokesman for Iran’s nuclear agency says Tehran will increase uranium enrichment levels “based on the country’s needs.”

Behrouz Kamalvandi made the comment in a news conference carried live on state television on Monday.

He says that increase could be to any level, from 3.67% which is the current limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

Kamalvandi spoke to local journalists at Iran’s Arak heavy water facility.

His comments come amid heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S., a year after President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America for the nuclear deal.

Kamalvandi acknowledged that the country already quadrupled its production of low-enriched uranium.
___

12: 45 p.m.
A spokesman for Iran’s atomic agency says the country will break the uranium stockpile limit set by Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers in the next 10 days.

Behrouz Kamalvandi made the comment in a news conference carried live on Iranian state television on Monday.

He spoke to local journalists at Iran’s Arak heavy water facility.

His comments come in the wake of suspected attacks on oil tankers last week in the region that Washington has blamed on Iran and amid heightened tensions between

Iran and the U.S., a year after President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America for the nuclear deal.

Kamalvandi acknowledged that the country already quadrupled its production of low-enriched uranium.


The Latest: Iran spokesman: Iran needs 20% enriched uranium