Iranian Affairs

[Redheart]

U.S sanctions against Iran will be lifted in less than two weeks. The US was considering taking action against Iran for firing the ballistic missile but since it was a conventional missile there's nothing that can be done save for imposing new sanctions.

US could start lifting Iran sanctions in January under nuclear deal | US news | The Guardian
The secretary of state, John Kerry, said in a letter on Wednesday to the Senate foreign relations committee that Iran is fulfilling its obligations under the international agreement in what Kerry calls a “transparent” and “verifiable” way, and that “suspension of sanctions … is appropriate”.

The committee’s top Democrat, Senator Ben Cardin, said at a hearing on Thursday that it appears that sanctions relief could start as early as January, not in the spring as initially anticipated.

 

[UAE]

U.S sanctions against Iran will be lifted in less than two weeks. The US was considering taking action against Iran for firing the ballistic missile but since it was a conventional missile there's not much that can be done save for imposing new sanctions.

US could start lifting Iran sanctions in January under nuclear deal | US news | The Guardian
The secretary of state, John Kerry, said in a letter on Wednesday to the Senate foreign relations committee that Iran is fulfilling its obligations under the international agreement in what Kerry calls a “transparent” and “verifiable” way, and that “suspension of sanctions … is appropriate”.

The committee’s top Democrat, Senator Ben Cardin, said at a hearing on Thursday that it appears that sanctions relief could start as early as January, not in the spring as initially anticipated.

That is very dangerous move by the US. This will backfire at them in the long run. I think GCC will take a counter measure in this regard.

 

[Redheart]

Iran stands to gain over $100 Billion the moment the sanctions are lifted. I presume that some of that money will be used to fund terrorists and there'll be more bloodshed in the Middle East but the Obama administration won't take this into account because the Iran deal for him might be one of his greatest foreign policy achievements as U.S president.

I wonder what the GCC's reaction will be . . .

 

[Bubblegum Crisis]

Quote :

Iran Delusional About Oil Potential

By Mansour Kashfi
Posted on Mon, 21 December 2015 22:51

After 37 miserable years of the so-called Islamic Republic (IR) and more than $1.6 trillion of oil income, Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure has become ineffective and is suffering from poor management and chronic corruption. As a result, the well-respected healthy national oil company, with a 6.3 million b/d crude production prior to the revolution, plunged to a near bankrupt industry with at best a little above 3 million b/d production.


Massive Deterioration Of The Iranian Oil Industry

Iranian output has reached a plateau for some time now, and production has been on the wane by over 200,000 b/d/year for the past decade. Pressure dropping in reservoirs and continuous year-to-year decline in production appear to have been triggered by long periods of technical constraints on operations and by natural aging of the Iranian fields. The lack of regular maintenance and application of new technology, and particularly extensive neglect of the fields in the last several years under sanctions, have resulted in further damage to the Iranian reservoirs.

Geologically, high degradation of reservoirs can take place while wells have been shut-in or declining in production. This condition is exacerbated if gas injection has not been performed on reservoirs for a while.

According to U.S. EIA, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) needs to inject at least 260 million cubic meters of gas daily to its matured oil fields. But in recent years, NIOC has never had the capability to inject more than half of this volume per day, and recently, since the production of gas is hardly even equal to domestic consumption, no gas remains to be injected. Therefore, EIA concludes that old Iranian oil fields are naturally losing pressure, which causes 8 to 13 percent oil production to deplete each year. Currently, the majority of power plants in the country use liquid fuel due to scarcity of gas, which leads to terrible air pollution. According to the International Health Organization, damages resulting from air pollution in Iran cost $16 billion annually.

Iran has built refineries in various non-democratic countries with which it has good rapport. Billions of dollars of Iran’s oil money that should have been invested in its own dilapidated oil and gas industry, along with millions of barrels of free crude, have gone to Syria, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Gambia, Gabon, Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba, Uganda, Sri Lanka and even oil-rich Venezuela to keep their refineries running. In contrast, not even one refinery was built in Iran since 1979, with the exception of the inauguration of the Arak refinery and Bandar Abbas complex, which were near completion in the monarchical government.

The deputy oil minister and head of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company Abbas Kazemi recently said, “After the lifting of sanctions our policy will be purchasing foreign oil refineries and their shares abroad.”

Oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh and his deputies take any occasion that arises to deliver untrue information and empty promises: oil discoveries, gas production, petrochemical potential, construction of new refineries – they portray such a rosy future for the country and the Iranian petroleum industry after sanctions are lifted. These statements are overly optimistic illusions, and they are impossible under the ambitious timeframes laid out.


Iran Petroleum contract

As the world leaders and the Islamic Republic reached an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program on July 14, major oil companies’ attention was immediately directed toward the vast amounts of Iranian oil and gas. Further, Iranian oil officials have tried to take advantage of the situation to lure investors to Iran and came up with the proposal of an entirely new set of oil and gas agreements. Iranian oil minister Bijn Namdar Zanganeh time and again has requested huge investments—hundreds of billions of dollars—within the next five years in order to rejuvenate the impaired Iranian oil industry.

Rehabilitating Iran’s aged and damaged fields will be an enormous job and will require a lot money. Yet, all this can be materialized if the NIOC regains lost customers for its crude. Experts believe that Iran will have a difficult time in regaining the market share that it lost over three years ago.

To convince international oil companies to invest in Iran at the same time that oil markets are flooded with product and low demand will be extremely difficult. Nevertheless, in order to lure these kinds of investments to Iran, the Islamic Republic’s officials often have said that foreign companies can easily participate in the already-planned privatization of state owned companies in the country.

Iran postponed several times a planned oil and gas informative meeting in London, where the oil ministry’s officials are to introduce the “Iran Petroleum Contract” (IPC) to international oil companies. It has been expected that Iran’s officials will deliver in detail the terms and conditions of the proposed new 25 year contract to the audience, provided that the IAEA verifies that the terms and conditions of the nuclear agreement negotiated on July 14 are honored by Iran.

Evidently, IPC will replace the previous “buy back” contract. This new model for oil projects aims to entice international producers. The new oil contract terms apparently give oil producers some share of a given field’s production under the agreement. The Chairman of Iran’s oil contracts restructuring committee, Mehdi Hossein, in mid-August announced that Iran has selected 50 oil and gas projects to offer to major oil companies at a conference in London initially on December 14-16.

He stated that the new oil contract models include exploratory blocks that Iran will offer to oil producers, and they will have three months to consider to bid on the projects. Hosseini said “production sharing” replaces the “buy back” contracts and “in the short run our goal is to produce 5 million b/d and increase that immediately to 5.7 million”. However, the December date for IPC presentation was postponed to Feb. 22-24 2016. Zanganeh believes IPC should be introduced after sanctions are ended.

Apparently, the new terms in the IPC are more generous than the “buy back” deals. Unlike the “buy back” contract that merely paid an agreed upon fee when the contract was completed, the new model apparently could provide oil producers some share of any field’s production under the agreement. Therefore, companies have the right to book more reserves on their balance sheet. Furthermore, the length of the contract could be up to 25 years. It seems it is easier for investors to tap into Iran’s lucrative oil and gas riches.

Iran’s officials have time and again stated that the country imposes no limitations for foreign oil companies to invest in its energy industry. In fact, the need to prepare these new models of contract is a true testament to Iran’s bankrupt and ineffective oil industry.

Investors that are planning to make deals with the Islamic Republic should be aware that they still face a lot of uncertainty and risk with the possibility of the return of sanctions looming for years to come.

Oil companies planning to do business in Iran should be wary of the problem of chronic corruption in the governing system of the country. There are bureaucratic attitudes that dominate the business environment in Iran. So long as this ill-managed regime is in control, investments in the Iranian oil industry, along with opportunities they might provide, could also be a great risk to prospective contractors.

Further, the present governing system in Iran certainly raises questions over the security of investments by major oil companies in Iran.

Therefore, the question is, can NIOC deliver as its officials claim? The fact is, the capabilities of Iran’s petroleum industry fall short of said rhetoric.


By Mansour Kashfi

Mansour Kashfi, PhD, is president of Kashex International Petroleum Consulting and is a college professor in Dallas,Texas. He is also author of more than 100 articles and books about petroleum geology worldwide.


Oilprice.com


...

 

[Scorpion]

Iran postponed budget announcement two times waiting for Saudi Arabia. Lol

Iran's Rouhani says countries behind oil price drop will suffer

Its clear who is suffering.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Top News
Spain's police break up ring smuggling Iranians to Spain, Britain

Thu, Jan 07 19:25 PM GMT
MADRID (Reuters) - Spanish police have broken up a smuggling ring dedicated to bringing Iranians to Spain and then Britain for between 10,000 and 15,000 euros ($10,847-$16,271) per person, the Interior Ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

In collaboration with Britain's Risk and Liaison Overseas network (Ralon), Spanish police arrested six members of the organisation in Madrid and Fuengirola in the province of Malaga in southern Spain, the ministry said.

The group had illegally helped 50 Iranians to travel to Spain over the last nine months through the use of fake visas in their legitimate passports, it said. The immigrants were then supplied with fake passports, sent from Greece, France and Britain, for the final step to reach Britain.

The police confiscated 100,000 euros in cash, hidden in secret compartments in suitcases, 47 falsified passports, documents related to the network and high-end vehicles, the ministry said.

(Reporting by Paul Day; Editing by Gareth Jones)

Spain's police break up ring smuggling Iranians to Spain, Britain

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

 

[Scorpion]

This should be the flag of Iran.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

In Iran, old habits die hard
Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Mohammed Alyahya

In 1987, hundreds of thousands of Muslims of different nationalities, skin colours and sects gathered in Makkah for worship during the hajj season. Suddenly, a group of men chanting political slogans and brandishing knives, broken glass and bludgeons began rioting - 400 lives were lost as a result.

The instigators were believed to be members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who allegedly sought to hijack the pilgrimage to score political points against Saudi Arabia. In response, Riyadh banned Iranians from entering the kingdom. Rioters in Tehran then ransacked the Saudi embassy to protest the ban.

Saudi Arabia consequently severed all diplomatic ties with Iran. Ties resumed four years later, in 1991. Last week, Riyadh again severed diplomatic ties with Iran for the same reason. Contrary to widespread postulations, the move was simply a similar response to a similar scenario.

Three decades later, Iran’s behavior has not changed much. The Saudi consulate in Mashhad and embassy in Tehran were ransacked and looted by angry mobs believed to be affiliated with the Basij forces of the IRGC. This happened with the government ostensibly looking the other way, if not giving its tacit blessing.

The pretext for the attacks was the execution of Nimr al-Nimr, a Saudi preacher convicted of terrorism charges. Nimr was apprehended by security forces following a shootout with the police in 2012. During the judicial process leading to his conviction, his case was scrutinized by 13 judges in three courts.

In 1987, the spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran came as the Iran-Iraq war was entering its last phase. During the war, Iran in its desperation engaged in risky brinkmanship by attacking oil tankers navigating the Hormuz Straits. Luckily, its attempt to destabilize the world economy came to naught. In a show of leadership and decisiveness, the United States stepped in and provided protection to the oil tankers, thus quashing Iran’s irresponsible behaviour.

Iran has sponsored proxy militias and non-state actors for so long that it no longer seems capable of maintaining healthy state-level relations with its neighbors

Mohammed Alyahya
The 2016 incident has sparked a regional outcry, with Bahrain, Sudan and Djibouti joining Saudi Arabia in severing all diplomatic ties. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) downgraded its diplomatic representation in Iran to the level of charge d’affairs, and reduced the number of Iranian diplomats in Abu Dhabi. Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan recalled their ambassadors.

Turkey summoned the Iranian ambassador to Ankara and submitted a memorandum of protest, while almost all Arab countries issued harsh condemnations of the attacks. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Arab League, U.N. Security Council and many governments worldwide also registered their protest.

In 1987, the Arab states were powerful and functional despite regional conflicts. In 2016 the reality is far different, with state failure and non-state actors on the rise simultaneously. Regional players realize that containing Iranian interference is more important than ever, and have turned to Saudi Arabia as the bulwark against Iranian expansionism because it has proved itself a steadfast investor in Middle East stability via its partnership with responsible state actors.

Regional interference
Iran has sponsored proxy militias and non-state actors for so long that it no longer seems capable of maintaining healthy state-level relations with its neighbors. Virtually every country in the Middle East has been affected by Iran’s expansionism and meddling in their internal affairs, either through proxy militias or the deployment of IRGC and Basij forces.

In Iraq, Shiite militias have terrorized Sunnis for years since the U.S. invasion. Hezbollah and Iranian forces have propped up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and aided him in slaughtering more than 250,000 of his own people. In Yemen and Bahrain, Iran has gone to great lengths to undermine legitimate governments. It is sowing chaos to alter the natural regional order to its advantage, and seems ready to use any tool at its disposal to do so.

The region’s current security architecture, ridden with instability and state failure, requires a unified position from rational players. Saudi Arabia has stepped up to take the lead by establishing a Muslim coalition to counter terrorism in all its forms, with the two main threats to the region today being the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the IRGC and its clients.

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently said the kingdom would not allow war to break out with Iran because that would be “the beginning of a major catastrophe in the region, and it will reflect very strongly on the rest of the world.” Integral to this vision of peace and stability in the Middle East is regional unity against all forms of terrorism.

Meanwhile, Iran does not seem willing to renounce support for terrorism, honor its obligations under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, or respect the national sovereignty of its neighbors. It appears stuck in its old habits.

__________
Mohammed Alyahya is a London-based political analyst focusing on Gulf politics and policy. His writing and analysis has appeared on Al-Monitor, the Huffington Post, and U.S. News, the BBC, Al Jazeera, CCTV America and other outlets. Among other affiliations, he is an Associate Fellow at the King Faisal Center for research and Islamic Studies 2014-2015 and a member of the advisory board at the Future Trends in the Gulf Region project at Chatham House.

Last Update: Tuesday, 12 January 2016 KSA 15:22 - GMT 12:22

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in the opinion section are their own and do not reflect Al Arabiya News's point-of-view.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2016/01/12/In-Iran-old-habits-die-hard.html

 

[tasha]

this is very interesting and it is good to keep up with the news especially the details we cannot see in the papers every day.

 

[Redheart]

Sanctions against Iran finally imposed:

Iran condemns new US sanctions over missile test - BBC News

Iran has denounced new sanctions imposed by the US over its ballistic missile programme. The sanctions had "no legal or moral legitimacy", a foreign ministry spokesman said.

In October, Iran tested a precision-guided ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, in defiance of a UN ban. The US move came after global economic sanctions on Iran were lifted in line with a deal on its nuclear programme. The new sanctions prevent 11 entities and individuals linked to the programme from using the US banking system.

Announcing the measures, Adam J Szubin, US acting under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said: "Iran's ballistic missile programme poses a significant threat to regional and global security, and it will continue to be subject to international sanctions."

 

[Redheart]

Iran: Saudi Arabia is 'panicking' - CNN.com

Iran's foreign minister says Saudi Arabia is "panicking" over the potential for reduced tensions between Tehran and the West, that he is happy for the families of Americans previously imprisoned in Iran, and that the U.S. is "addicted" to sanctions.

"We do not have a fight to pick with Saudi Arabia," Javad Zarif told CNN's Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive TV interview.

"We believe that Iran and Saudi Arabia can be two important players who can accommodate each other, who can complement each other, in the region."

"Unfortunately, the Saudis have had the illusion that backed by their Western allies, they could push Iran out of the equation in the region."

Zarif said that the alliance between Saudi Arabia and Western nations, and the tension between those nations and Iran, provided a "smoke screen" that allowed Saudi Arabia to "export this Wahhabi ideology of extremism." (Wahhabism is the branch of Sunni Islam practiced in Saudi Arabia.)

Hopes for relations between Iran and the West are high after last weekend's implementation of a hard-won deal, agreed to last July, to swap relief of sanctions on Iran for guarantees about the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.

The foreign minister emphasized, as he did in an op-ed for The New York Times earlier this month, that 15 of the 19 September 11 hijackers were Saudis, and blamed the "Wahhabi ideology" for much of the violent extremism now seen in the region and indeed in the West.

Zarif told CNN: "We don't expect, or we're not interested even, in pushing Saudi Arabia out of this region, because Saudi Arabia is an important player in this region."

"We were always in the community of nations. Now their allies have recognized that Iran is a serious partner."

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Iran's notorious record

SPA

Published — Thursday 21 January 2016

Last update 21 January 2016 12:39 am

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on Tuesday that since the Iranian revolution in 1979, Iran has established a record of spreading sedition, unrest and chaos in the region in an effort to undermine the region’s security and stability, and in complete disregard for international law, agreements, treaties, and moral principles. During the same period, the Kingdom has maintained a policy of restraint in spite of having suffered from the consequences of Iran’s continued aggressive policies. — SPA

1982
•96 foreigners kidnapped in Lebanon, including 25 Americans, in what is known as “the hostage crisis,” which lasted for10 years. Most of kidnappings were carried out by Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups.

1983
•Hezbollah bombs US Embassy in Beirut, killing 63 people.

•Ismail Askari, an Iranian national, carries out a suicide bombing at the US Marine Corps barracks in Beirut, killing 241 American servicemen.

•Hezbollah sends a suicide truck bomber to the French Army barracks in Beirut, killing 64 French civilian and military personnel.

•Members of Hezbollah and Hezbut Dawa carry out a number of attacks, including attacks on the US and French embassies in Kuwait, an oil refinery, and a residential neighborhood, resulting in the deaths
of five people.

•Iran attacks Kuwaiti oil tankers in the Gulf. Subsequently, Kuwait tankers are reflagged as American and provided escort
by US warships.

1984
•Hezbollah attacks US Embassy annex in east Beirut, resulting in 24 deaths.

1985
•Several Gulf soldiers and citizens are killed when an attempt is made to bomb the motorcade of Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah.

•Iranian regime masterminds the hijacking of TWA flight; 39 American passengers are held captive for weeks.

1986
•Iran asks its pilgrims to carry out riots during Haj, which results in a stampede and the deaths of 300 people.

1987
•Hezbollah Al-Hejaz sets fire to an oil facility in Ras Tanura on the east coast of Saudi Arabia.

•The pro-Iranian organization attacks Saudi Petrochemical Company (SADAF) facility in Jubail, in eastern Saudi Arabia.
•Iranians murder Saudi diplomat Mosaed Al-Ghamdi in Tehran.

•Saudi Arabia foils attempts by Iranian pilgrims to smuggle explosives into the Kingdom.

•Saudi Embassy in Tehran attacked and Saudi diplomat Reza Abdul Mohsen Al-Nozha is assaulted and taken by Iranian Revolutionary Guards. He is released following negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
1989
•Iran assassinates Iranian Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou and his deputy Abdullah Azar in Vienna.

•Iranian regime kidnaps and kills a number of American diplomats in Lebanon.

1990
•Iranian regime is involved in the assassination in Thailand of Saudi diplomats Abdullah Al-Malki, Abdullah Al-Bassri, Fahad Al-Bahli and Ahmed Al-Saif (between 1989 and 1990).

1991
•Iranian Revolutionary Guards murder Shapour Bakhtiar, the last Prime Minister of Iran under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in France.

1992
•Iran assassinates Kurdistan Democratic Party Secretary-General Sadegh Sharafkandi, his assistants Fattah Abdoulie, Homayoun Ardalan and Nuri Dechrda, in Berlin.

•Iranian regime is involved in the bombing of Mykonos restaurant in Berlin. The German Federal Prosecutor issues an arrest warrant against Iran’s Minister of Intelligence Ali Fallahian for planning and supervising the restaurant bombing.

1994
•Iran is involved in Buenos Aires bombings in 1994, which result in the deaths of 85 people. (In 2003, British police arrested Hade Pour Soleimanpour, Iran’s former ambassador to Argentina, for conspiring to carry out the attack.)

•Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues a press release stating that four Iranian diplomats were involved in a covert operation at Simon Bolivar International Airport in Caracas that was aimed at forcing Iranian refugees to return to their country.

1996
•Iran is involved in the Alkhobar bombings in 1996, which is carried out by the pro-Iranian organization Hezbollah Al-Hijaz, resulting in the deaths of 120 people, including 19 Americans. Iran provided protection to the offenders, including Ahmed Al-Moghassil, a Saudi citizen who was arrested in Lebanon in 2015 carrying an Iranian passport. The terrorist attacks were directed by the Iranian military attache in Bahrain. The perpetrators were trained in both Lebanon and Iran. The explosives were smuggled from Lebanon to Saudi Arabia by Hezbollah.

2001
•Iran provides a safe haven for a number of Al-Qaeda leaders since 2001, including Saad bin Laden, Saif Al-Adel and others after Sept. 11, 2001. It refuses to hand Al-Qaeda leaders over to Saudi Arabia despite the Kingdom’s continuous requests.

•Iran is involved in the bombings of three residential compounds in Riyadh in 2003, which killed many Saudi citizens and foreign residents, including Americans, at the instruction of one of the Al-Qaeda leaders in Iran.

2003
•Bahrain arrests members of a new terrorist cell that was receiving support from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kuwait and the UAE.

•Iranian regime supports Shiite elements in Iraq by forming political parties and militias loyal to Iran. These activities result in the deaths of some 4,400 US service members and tens of thousands of civilians, particularly Sunni Arabs. Former US Ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey said that the Americans who died were killed in operations carried out by groups backed directly by Iran.

2006
•Washington says Iran supports the Taliban against US forces in Afghanistan and that it has armed groups different ethnic and sectarian groups to strike the US near Iran’s borders. It says that the Iranian regime has offered a reward of $1,000 for every American soldier killed in Afghanistan.

2007
•US Senate passes a resolution calling the Iranian Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization.

2011
•Iran is involved in the assassination of Saudi diplomat Hassan Al-Qahtani in Karachi.

•US foils an attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US and proves the involvement of the Iranian regime. The criminal complaint unveiled in the federal court in New York identifies two people involved in the plot: Mansour Arbabsear, who is arrested and imprisoned for 25 years, and Gholam Shakuri, an officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, who is currently in Iran and wanted by the US judiciary.

2012
•Hackers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard carry out cyber-attacks against oil and gas companies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta describes the cyber-attacks as among the most destructive in the private sector. President Obama’s administration says it is aware that this is the work of the Iranian government.

•A plot to assassinate US officials and diplomats in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, is discovered. A Shiite group in Azerbaijan, backed by Iran and working under the instructions of the Revolutionary Guard, is behind the plot.

2016
•Kuwaiti criminal court sentences two members to death. One has Iranian citizenship. They are charged with carrying out acts that jeopardize the unity and security of Kuwait, and with actively collaborating with Iran and Hezbollah to carry out acts of hostility.

•Iran admits officially through the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, that it has 200,000 Iranian fighters outside the country — in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen.

•Iranian regime refuses to protect Saudi diplomatic facilities in Tehran and Mashhad.
Iran's notorious record | Arab News