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Lieutenant

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Will Iran attack Israel over the Syrian conflict? It’s only a matter of time

As the dust settles following last weekend’s U.S.-French-British attack on Syrian chemical weapons facilities, the countdown to the next round of military conflict between Israel and Iran has begun. Last week, Israel once again targeted the T-4 (Tiyas) base in Syria, which houses Iranian drone forces, killing 7 Iranians and apparently destroying a drone infrastructure project. This is the same base from which an Iranian drone was launched in February, which the Israeli air force intercepted. Israel then hit the T-4 base and an Israeli aircraft downed by Syrian anti-aircraft fire.

An Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel is likely in the works. Where and how Tehran chooses to carry out its attack is still unclear, but for reasons that we describe below, it is most likely to be a rocket or missile attack launched from Syria. The choice will define what to expect for the future of Iranian and Israeli confrontations.
THE “WHY” QUESTION
There are very clear signals that this time Iran would indeed retaliate. Iranian media gave extensive coverage to the Israeli attack on T-4 last week. Iranian leaders, most noticeably Ali Akbar Velayati, the top advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, issued direct threats of retaliation. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, also warned Israel that this time there would be a steep price to pay; the highly publicized funerals of Quds forces personnel was the latest such indication. Iran is now both deeply and publicly committed to retaliate. The stage is set.
Iran is determined to cash in on its huge investment in Syria, by improving its military presence and the means with which to pressure Israel. Ultimately, its aim is to firmly establish itself as a regional power. Meanwhile, Israel is determined not to repeat the mistake it made in Lebanon—watching from the sidelines as the Iranian threat from Hezbollah intensified. Israel has made clear its intention to combat the threat from the start, while it remains manageable.
In Israel’s view, the time to act is ripe due to both geopolitical and strategic factors. First, Russia’s desire to keep the situation in Syria relatively stable puts Israel in the unique position of acting as a potential disrupter. Israel thus has leverage over the larger, and more powerful Russian state. Second, Israel’s freedom to operate in Syria’s skies may be limited in the future by improved Iranian or Syrian anti-aircraft capabilities, or by an international accord.
 

Lieutenant

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Interesting article after the recent development and the military campaign launched by USA, France and the UK after the chemical use in Syria. I personally don't think Iran would attack Israel as the later has previously airstriked an Iranian base inside Syria with no response from Iran at all. All we have been hearing so far are empty threats from Iran's supreme leader. Can someone correct me if Im wrong?
 

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Iran will not open another front. Israel is going to slaughter Iran and the later knows that very well.
 

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Israel seems to be preparing for war with Iran, U.S. officials say

An Israeli airstrike that killed and wounded dozens of Iranians at a Syrian base is the latest sign of escalating conflict.
by Courtney Kube / May.01.2018 / 8:42 AM ET / Updated May.01.2018 / 9:18 AM ET

Smoke rises during a strike in Hama, Syria, on April 30.Mahmoud Taha / Anadolu / Getty Images


WASHINGTON — An Israeli airstrike on the western Syrian city of Hama on Sunday killed two dozen Iranian soldiers and targeted arms recently delivered from Iran, said three U.S. officials, and is the latest sign that Israel and Iran are moving closer to open warfare.
"On the list of the potentials for most likely live hostility around the world, the battle between Israel and Iran in Syria is at the top of the list right now," said one senior U.S. official.

Three U.S. officials say Israeli F-15s hit Hama after Iran delivered weapons to a base that houses Iran's 47th Brigade, including surface-to-air missiles. In addition to killing two dozen troops, including officers, the strike wounded three dozen others

Israel is increasingly wary of Iran's influence in neighboring Syria, the three U.S. officials say. While Russia runs the air war for the Assad regime in Syria, Iran is now running the ground war, the officials said, with Iranian military present at every major Russian and Syrian regime base in the country.

In the past two weeks Iran has increased military cargo flights to Syria, stocked with additional weapons and supplies like small arms, ammunition and surface-to-air missiles that two U.S. officials believe are meant both to shore up Iranian ground forces and to strike at Israel. For years the U.S. has tracked arms shipments from Iran to Hezbollah fighters in Syria supporting the Assad regime, but recently Iran has been supplying Hezbollah with more material and logistical support.

Israeli ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon holds a map that he claims shows the area in Syria where Iran is recruiting and training 80,000 Shiite fighters at a base five miles from Damascus.Drew Angerer / Getty Images
The three U.S. officials said Israel now seems to be preparing for military action and is seeking U.S. help and support.


On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNN that "nobody" wants war, but that Iran is the aggressor and that Israel has to "take a stand."

"I think that's the way to prevent war," he said.

On Monday, Defense Secretary James Mattis said that he and Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman spoke "at some length" about Iran's presence and actions in Syria during a meeting at the Pentagon last week. He said the Israelis are concerned Iran and its proxy forces may attack.

"The Iranian forces … or the proxy forces have tried to get down closer to the Israeli border, I mean very close to it, and you've seen Israel take action over that," Mattis said.

Israel's military acknowledges it has struck inside Syria more than 100 times since 2012, with weapons convoys intended for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.


Three weeks ago, Israel conducted a series of predawn airstrikes on a Syrian base in Homs province, according to two U.S. officials. Israeli jets targeted Tiyas Military Base, also known as T-4 Airbase, which houses Iranian drones and personnel.

'I CAN'T THINK OF ANY OTHER PURPOSE FOR THEM'
This is not the first time Israel has considered more aggressive action against Iran in Syria. During the Obama administration, the U.S. learned of growing efforts by Israel on the ground in Syria including possible involvement of Israeli personnel to counter Iran's and Hezbollah's increased activity in Syria, according to a former Obama administration official.

While Israel did not ask the U.S. for approval for more action, "some cautionary notes were sent," according to the official. Israel has now returned to a campaign of targeted strikes.


 

Scorpion

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Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC have put their forces on high alert, public alert systems have been tested and air defense systems have been deployed along the Arabian Gulf. Kuwait moved its PAC-2/3 inside Saudi Arabia territory.
 

Nilgiri

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Balance must be restored....behaviour of Iran has been getting quite bad lately.
 

Scorpion

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Balance must be restored....behaviour of Iran has been getting quite bad lately.
yeah I agree especially with trump coming to power. The mullah chickened out as always.
 

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Iran won't react or do nothing tbh, every time Israel has done something in Syria, neither Iran or Russia has reacted, well at least Russia has done something a little more by moving in some more air defenses but no major strikes or nothing.
the only thing Iran has done so far against Israel in Syria was the fact they moved weapons to Syria to get to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
 

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Iran won't react or do nothing tbh, every time Israel has done something in Syria, neither Iran or Russia has reacted, well at least Russia has done something a little more by moving in some more air defenses but no major strikes or nothing.
the only thing Iran has done so far against Israel in Syria was the fact they moved weapons to Syria to get to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel is looking after Iran's nuke facilities and might airstrikes when its convinced that Iran is developing nuclear weapon.
 

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Iran's revenge: Israel prepares for infiltration
IDF fortifies northern border to prepare for possible military infiltration by Iranian forces.

The IDF is preparing for an Iranian assault on Israel's northern border and fortifying positions and towns in the north, News 2 reported.

The preparations come as the security establishment believes that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards seek to retaliate for the strike on the T-4 military base in Syria last month. A number of Iranian military personnel were killed in the attack on the T-4 base.

The assessment of the defense establishment is that the Iranian retaliation will consist of the launching of missiles at Israel from Syria.

The IDF is undertaking a series of air and ground operations against the possibility that the Iranian response will be accompanied by an attempt to infiltrate Israeli territory both on the ground and in the air.

The Home Front Command instructed civilians to continue to maintain their daily routines, as the infiltration attempts are expected to target military bases and installations.

On Monday, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian army, Mohammad Bagheri, warned that "the Islamic Republic will give an appropriate response at an appropriate time" to "slight" aggressions.

In addition, Iranian proxy Hezbollah achieved greater power in the recent Lebanese elections.

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said that Israelis should not panic in the face of the Iranian threat.

"There is no room for hysteria and panic," Liberman said during the weekly Yisrael Beiteinu faction meeting Monday. "Yes, there is a complex situation with many challenges and threats, but we will know how to deal with all the threats and how to manage all the challenges."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/245571
 

Hithchiker

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Balance must be restored....behaviour of Iran has been getting quite bad lately.
This will generate more sympathy for Iran ...Too much in stakes to attack directly Iran.I usually don't think of these lines but what do you make of this..Iran is the one that is left for now
 

Falcon29

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Israel is contemplating wider strikes targeting Iranian assets in Syria, it is not considering a strike on Iranian nuclear program. The US has that capability. Israel meanwhile is prepping missile defense systems in the northern regions of Israel along with the occupied Golan heights. This could be a precursor to wider strikes in Syria that might entail a clash with IRGC forces there. From what I've seen in Israeli media they are even downplaying the prospect of that, however.

So don't expect anything drastic to happen.
 

Falcon29

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Iran will not open another front. Israel is going to slaughter Iran and the later knows that very well.
In Syria of course there is no match unless Syria get's and employs modern missile defense systems. Iran is not transferring its missile defense systems to Syria contrary to some rumors floating around. It is unclear if they are even effective or ready to be operational(their latest domestic systems). US is conducting surveillance off in the sea all the time which Israel has access to. So it has a target bank for Iranian assets in Syria that Iran can't protect in the face of an aerial assault from an modern and experience air force.

Lebanon is a different case, it is actually riskier for Israel to strike in Lebanon than in Syria. Hezbollah will not agree to undertake reprisal attack from Lebanon like in last case scenario where one of their important figures was killed in an drone strike and they did kill two Israeli soldiers later in that period. So Iran will try symbolic response from Syria to save face at most.
 

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