Pakistan economy related news | World Defense

Pakistan economy related news

Zeeman

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Hi everyone ,

I am starting this thread to discuss positives and negatives of what is going on in Pakistan’s economic field.

As our president rightly said earlier this week that Pakistan was gang raped by the previous rulers. Nawaz and Bhutto clans have practically destroyed the very foundation of our economy.

To them progress meant borrowing money for their pandoo show off projects. Lahore orange line is one such disaster of monstrous proportions. Almost 3 billion dollars @commercial rate + some interest and subsidizing this project alone will eat up big amount of Punjab development budget.

Nandi our power is still not producing anything.

biggest scandal of Pakistan’s history is about to open regarding power plants policies and payments .

while most people see pandemic as a gloom and doom time for the economy I learned in my MBA classes how to see oppertunity in disaster. And I see a big one.

Pakistan as reported by Moody may not get effected as badly as the other countries . Pakistan in the back of expected good agriculture performance this year can sustain this crisis due to its limited exposure to export income. (unfortunately usually it’s not a good news but in this crisis low export earnings may be a slightly good news ).

Countries like Bangladesh who are the sewing machine of the West will face disastrous consequences due to their 30 billion exports but almost all of clothing.

Our real saviour are the low oil prices and willingness of G20 to restructure /write off debt.
Pakistan has already flooded market with liquidity, low interest rates and high fiscal deficit and IMF is not only looking the other way but Infact encouraging. We will have much easier time dealing with their conditions when things come Back to the normal.
IMF wants growth and restart of world economy and will encourage easy money, low interest and bigger deficits .

already Pakistan is seeing around 8 percent inflation which will decrease more next month. low oil prices will help keep the inflation low in foreseeable future.

Sooner or later this crisis will be over and workers can go back to foreign countries and remittances will be back to normal again.

This gives us a chance to put our house in order. We need to kill 18 th amandement which guarantees that the hard earned money earned and collected by the federal government is squandered by hungry Bhutto and siphoned off to foreign lands in the form of guaranteed payment. It needs to end now. Provinces have a zero incentive to be self sufficient or manage their revenue streams .

here is today’s news :


Price of Petrol in Pakistan after recent reduction:

Pakistan : .51c
UAE: .52 c
India: .92-1.03
Bangladesh: over a dollar
Sri Lanka : .85c

Pakistanis can really take advantage of this low oil price situation and build some reserves .
 

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As our president rightly said earlier this week that Pakistan was gang raped by the previous rulers. Nawaz and Bhutto clans have practically destroyed the very foundation of our economy.
He said beautiful words. Every PTI ian should be extremely proud of these words "gang raped" by the head of the nation.

Of course they looted the country, but what PTI is doing ?

BRT ? wheat scandal ? sugar scandal ? what are these ? Is this a halal sexual intercourse after marriage ?
 

Zeeman

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Today's financial time
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Investors should not shrink from frontier emerging markets

The consensus among investors is that Covid-19 will overwhelm frontier emerging markets, causing immense economic fallout from a collapse in both domestic and external demand. We think another scenario is more likely: that such markets will outperform.

MSCI’s Frontier Emerging Markets index spans large companies across 34 nations — from Argentina, Bahrain and Bangladesh to Togo, Tunisia and Vietnam. Typically, such markets suffer from domestic economic weakness rather than external factors.

Clearly, a number of these countries will have local frailties exposed by the unprecedented shock to external financing from tourism and remittances. Sri Lanka, for example, will probably see a sharp drop in tourism, delivering a nasty economic shock for an economy already struggling.

It is also true that some countries in this category, notably Nigeria and Egypt, will be hardest hit by external factors such as falling exports due to lower global demand and weaker remittance inflows from nationals employed overseas.

In some cases, disruptions to the real economy from lockdowns may further accentuate vulnerabilities in financial systems. This is particularly true in Bangladesh, for example, where bad loans at state banks amount to about 30 per cent of gross domestic product and where the sector has suffered for years from poor liquidity.

However, this is not the whole picture. Our more bullish view is based on data and intelligence gathered from an on-the-ground network spanning such markets around the world. From this we have identified several countries where strong growth and recovery is possible once the impact of Covid-19 begins to diminish.

We believe the Philippines, Peru and Vietnam are best positioned to recover. In these countries, the recovery will be aided by the relative resilience of their banking sectors and strong foreign exchange reserves.

The Philippines, for example, has huge FX buffers, a low deficit and a banking system with ample liquidity. Moreover, the country’s ratio of external debt to GDP is only 24 per cent, less than half the EM average, while FX reserves cover nearly 12 months of imports, much higher than Asean peers Thailand or Indonesia. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have been substantial without threatening macroeconomic stability.

Peru, like the Philippines, is enacting strong initiatives to address the Covid-19 public health challenge. In economic terms, the country also enjoys additional freedom in fiscal and monetary policy because of years of sound policy management. Both the deficit and cumulative debt are low. Even with a stimulus package of 8 per cent of GDP — at the upper end of EM spending — Peru has surplus funding from a variety of domestic and external sources, including abundant Treasury assets and an IMF contingent credit line.

Vietnam’s handling of Covid-19 has been short and sharp. Previous experience in dealing with earlier pandemics kept infections and deaths extremely low. As a result, the economy has resumed close-to-normal activity quickly. As of mid-May, country mobility reports from Google showed activity levels across all sectors to have fully recovered with the exception of retail, which is down just 15 per cent from the pre-Covid baseline.

Even Egypt and Pakistan, both highly indebted and seemingly vulnerable, may outperform. Both have reaffirmed their commitments to tax and civil service reforms and have maintained access to IMF programme funding.

In Pakistan, the outlook has improved markedly since the 2018 general election victory of Imran Khan. In a short period, the country has seen notable improvements in business sentiment and macroeconomic policymaking. The State Bank has undergone a complete makeover to transform it into the mould of a modern central bank under its new leadership.


Meanwhile, Egypt has greatly reduced uncertainty about its commitment to reform by not only obtaining the IMF’s easy money through the Rapid Financing Instrument but also committing to a newly funded Standby Arrangement, which alleviates market concerns on the stability of the government’s domestic borrowing programme. It, like Peru, has already been rewarded with access to the eurobond market. This, along with large reserve buffers, should help Egypt cope with the decline in FX receipts from weaker tourism and remittances, and retain foreign portfolio investment in the local debt markets.

Even though these countries offer investors the best opportunities, it is important to note that frontier markets across the board will probably outperform developed markets in the short to medium term. The IMF shares this view: its most recent World Economic Outlook forecast strong rebounds to pre-Covid-19 growth rates in frontier emerging markets and longer-lasting weakness in developed markets.

Investors should not overlook the considerable post-Covid potential of frontier emerging markets. The reasons are straightforward: resilient government balance sheets, improving governance and promising growth trajectories.

The writer is head strategist and portfolio manager at FIM Partners in Dubai

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Zeeman

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Utilizing remaining 10 percent capability can help us achieve export orders of $22 billion. We can encroach on Bangladesh and I dian garment supplies provided the government provide few more incentives and producers go into niche markets like curtains, tents, sporting goods and other high value added items .

 

Zeeman

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Now this is what we should have all along and everytime. Spend what you earn.This is temporary because of decrease in oil imports but we still have a huge oil facility with Saudis unused. So chances are we can balance deficit well for another year or two.

 
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He said beautiful words. Every PTI ian should be extremely proud of these words "gang raped" by the head of the nation.

Of course they looted the country, but what PTI is doing ?

BRT ? wheat scandal ? sugar scandal ? what are these ? Is this a halal sexual intercourse after marriage ?
Let's not make it political plz. Discuss things on the economic front objectively. If PTI is doing something wrong do call them out on it...but make sure it's not bcuz of some allegiance to another political party or some other agenda like that. The intention should be the good of the country and the ppl.

Now coming back to the wheat scandal and sugar scandal u mentioned...as far as I've read up on it...this was not PTI's fault in the sense that they didn't cause it. It was just a classic case of unchecked greed..."zakheera andozi" to drive up the prices. I however fault PTI for not being strict enough when dealing with these "zakheera andoz". If they had made an example out of them the first time...then it would've stopped at one...rather than continuing on to its third iteration most recently being oil. It's the same old crap of hoarding it and limiting supply to drive up the price.
 

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The last two years have been tough indeed and people were squeezed . But it was necessary to fix things.

Surgery is now done and cancer is surgically removed. This disease will still require chemo but in sha Allah country is no immediate danger of economic crisis.


So here is my understanding of what is achieved and where the government needs to work harder and where it has failed.

first and the most important thing they have managed to do is to control deficit. DO NOT LIVE BEYOND YOUR MEANS. it is the root cause of all evils .

Succeeded:
Controlling deficit, limiting imports , rationalizing dollar value to its true market value , increasing investment, ease of doing business , learning to live within means, cutting government expenditures, lowering interest rates, dam constructions .

SoSO:
Increasing exports, Tackling issues of IPP and circular debt, controlling inflation, state
bank reforms,

failed : privatization, tax reforms and expanding tax net , shutting down hawala systems, demolishing supply mafia, land reforms, job creation programs, and punishing big corrupt business houses .
 

Zeeman

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Excellent move.....should teach others a lesson...


These 9 Oil Marketing Companies Will Have Their Fuel Station Licenses Revoked
Posted 6 days ago by Raza Rizvi
Prime Minister Imran Khan has ordered to revoke licenses of oil marketing companies (OMCs) that are involved in hoarding fuel, causing an artificial shortage in the country. The decision was based on the initial inquiry report on the petrol crisis.

Prepared by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), the report identified that the Petroleum Division allegedly connived with OMCs to create an artificial crisis in the country to pressure the government.

The committee identified nine OMCs involved in hoarding, black-marketing, and dropping their sales. These include Shell Pakistan Limited, TOTAL PARCO Pakistan Limited, APL (Attock Petroleum Limited), Attock (Attock Oil Pakistan Limited), Byco, Go, Hascol, and Puma, and BE (Bakri Energy).
It mentioned that the officials of the Petroleum Division failed to fulfill their responsibilities and took no action while oil companies were creating an artificial petrol shortage in the country.

Directing punitive action against the officers involved, the premier also ordered the termination of licenses of nine oil marketing companies for hoarding and black marketing petroleum products.​
 

!eon

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Let's not make it political plz. Discuss things on the economic front objectively. If PTI is doing something wrong do call them out on it...but make sure it's not bcuz of some allegiance to another political party or some other agenda like that. The intention should be the good of the country and the ppl.
Sarkar I have no affiliation with any party. @Khafee is my witness.
I am critic of this whole "British colonial system" of which PTI is a part and also a defender.
PTI walas think any one questioning their way of govt must be NOONi and start calling names like Patwari etc.

Now coming back to the wheat scandal and sugar scandal u mentioned...as far as I've read up on it...this was not PTI's fault in the sense that they didn't cause it. It was just a classic case of unchecked greed..."zakheera andozi" to drive up the prices. I however fault PTI for not being strict enough when dealing with these "zakheera andoz". If they had made an example out of them the first time...then it would've stopped at one...rather than continuing on to its third iteration most recently being oil. It's the same old crap of hoarding it and limiting supply to drive up the price
What is PTI? From where these MPs are collected? What is origin of Shah Mahmood, Jahangir Treen, Khusro Bukhtiar, Fawad Ch etc?
How many times they have changed their political affiliations?

Who did this "zakheera andozi" of sugar and floor? How Jahangir escaped to UK?
Also add recent fuel crisis?
 

!eon

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It's strange if anyone raises question about PTI performance first he/she has to give certificate of political non-alliance
But PTI walas have fundamental right to criticize anyone, or even abuse if they are not in mood to spare.
 
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Sarkar I have no affiliation with any party. @Khafee is my witness.
I am critic of this whole "British colonial system" of which PTI is a part and also a defender.
PTI walas think any one questioning their way of govt must be NOONi and start calling names like Patwari etc.



What is PTI? From where these MPs are collected? What is origin of Shah Mahmood, Jahangir Treen, Khusro Bukhtiar, Fawad Ch etc?
How many times they have changed their political affiliations?

Who did this "zakheera andozi" of sugar and floor? How Jahangir escaped to UK?
Also add recent fuel crisis?
Right I'm aware of the lotas that change political parties based on whichever one is going to end up in power. I was against Imran Khan's move when he allowed these lotas to enter his party en masse...bcuz my position is that if it is going to be same damn looters under a different brand...nothing is going to change.

However I was still reluctantly supportive...bcuz I still held out hope that maybe with Imran Khan at the helm...it would be at least some change bcuz the alternative was the same damn fools of PPPP and PMLN. So at the very least...I was thinking "why not give someone new a chance"(even though that new was filled with a lot of old).

I would like to point out that there have been some positive changes...though not as much as was promised. The reduction in imports is a welcome change for such a debt ridden country like Pak.
...
The inflation of PKR is somewhat of a welcome change bcuz(I'm no economist) as far as I have read up on it...it usually leads to reduced imports and increases exports. However that has also caused inflation across the board in every single thing...putting many basic things like food out of ppl's reach(or made it difficult to get by). I have a different take(more a solution that I have thought up) on it that would require its own separate discussion.

Along with some successes there are other things where either no progress was made...or things went in reverse. One of them being less than ideal tax reforms. The recent sugar, flour, and fuel shortages(artificially created) are also among some of the failures of PTI...in the sense they didn't deal strictly with the ppl involved in this. However I wouldn't blame PTI for causing it...even if there are ppl affiliated with PTI who were part of creating this artificial shortage. It is rather the individuals who are responsible...and they should be punished accordingly.

It's not correct to make the connection...
Jahangir Tareen(owns sugar mills...part of creating an artificial sugar shortage) -> affiliated with PTI --> PTI is in power ---> hence the government is responsible for sugar shortage.

Why go down a rabbit hole and create such connections?...some of which may weaken ur argument if those assumptions turn out to be false. Instead just call a spade a spade...lay the blame squarely on the sugar tycoons of Pakistan...and criticize Imran Khan for letting Jahangir Tareen escape...and not putting a noose around the necks of such "zakheera andoz". All of that is perfectly justified...I wouldn't label u as "patwari" or "jiyala" or whatever...so long as u r talking facts. I'm only against political point scoring and political party favoritism. In fact I think it would be better if all the ppl who were out for "tabdeeli" bcuz they were tired of the same old BS...get back out on the street and protest(peacefully) to demand strict actions by the government(and Imran Khan since he is PM) against such "zakheera andoz"...
...and keep up that pressure...in anything where the government is failing to deliver...
...as a way to hold IK to his promises.
 

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