Saudi Arabia 'destabilising Arab world', German intelligence wa | World Defense

Saudi Arabia 'destabilising Arab world', German intelligence wa


Dec 26, 2014
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Saudi Arabia 'destabilising Arab world', German intelligence warns - Telegraph

Saudi Arabia is at risk of becoming a major destabilising influence in the Arab world, German intelligence has warned.

Internal power struggles and the desire to emerge as the leading Arab power threaten to make the key Western ally a source of instability, according to the BND intelligence service.

“The current cautious diplomatic stance of senior members of the Saudi royal family will be replaced by an impulsive intervention policy,” a BND memo widely distributed to the German press reads.

The memo focuses particularly on the role of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 30-year-old son of King Salman who was recently appointed deputy crown prince and defence minister.

The concentration of so much power in Prince Mohammed’s hands “harbours a latent risk that in seeking to establish himself in the line of succession in his father’s lifetime, he may overreach,” the memo notes.

“Relations with friendly and above all allied countries in the region could be overstretched.”

Prince Mohammed is believed to have played a key role in Saudi Arabia’s decision to intervene in the civil war in Yemen earlier this year

Both he and King Salman want Saudi Arabia to be seen as “the leader of the Arab world” and are trying to extend its foreign policy “with a strong military component and new regional alliances,” the BND analysts write.

Prince Mohammed is believed to want to succeed his father as king, but he is currently second in line to the throne, behind the 56-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, King Salman’s nephew.

Analysts at the Royal Bank of Canada recenlty desrcribed the jockeying for position inside the extensive royal family as “Saudi Arabia’s Game of Thrones”.

The royal family has thousands of members of varying influence and power, and any suggestion Prince Mohammed is trying to move ahead of the crown prince in the line of succession could trigeer a dangerous power struggle.

Regionally, the Sunni kingdom is locked in a rivalry with Shia Iran “reinforced by mutual mistrust and religious-ideological enmity,” the memo warns.

This rivalry between the two counties is being fuelled by a Saudi loss of faith in the US as the dominant strategic power in the region and in its ability to provide protection, it says.

Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen was driven by a desire to show the country was “willing to take military, financial and political risks in order not to fall behind in regional politics”.

The overthrow of Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad remains a priority for the kingdom, the BND says.

Saudi Arabia has previously been accused of supplying arms and funding to jihadist groups fighting in Syria, including Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isil).


Nov 27, 2014
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Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
The German government has publicly rebuked its own foreign intelligence agency after the BND suggested that Saudi Arabia's foreign policy was becoming more "impulsive".

"The published assessment does not reflect the position of the German government," a spokesman said.

Saudi Arabia was an important partner "in a crisis-ridden world" and had great significance "especially on the way to peace in Syria", the spokesman insisted.

Anyone seeking a regional solution needed constructive relations with the Saudis, who were supporting rebel groups in the fight against the militant Islamist State (IS) group, he added.

Germany scolds BND spy agency over Saudi criticism - BBC News