So what should Vladimir Putin's New Year's Resolutions be?
The Big Question: In the wake of President Putin's New Year message to world leaders, we suggest what he could have been thinking
For most people a New Year’s Resolution will be something simple, like ‘do more exercise’ or ‘go for a promotion’; for leaders of countries these resolutions are often bigger. President Obama, for example, might well have resolved to spend the remainder of his final term going out with a bang rather than a whimper, and making the best he can of Republican dominated Congress. David Cameron could decide that he is going to redouble efforts on English Votes for English Laws, and seek a final settlement for the West Lothian Question. However, the arguably most important resolutions, will be those of Vladimir Putin – and their content will likely depend upon whether he settles for survival, or once again gamble everything for glory.
Putin’s Russia is at the moment facing mounting external pressures; the falling price of petroleum products that was initiated by Saudi Arabia/OPEC’s decision not to lower output in an attempt to retain market share is hitting Russia’s export based economy hard. This coupled with the ongoing Western sanctions being implemented in response to his actions in Ukraine, is causing rampant inflation. Internally his opponents are growing bolder, but thankfully (from Putin’s perspective), not really more effective.
Whichever course his resolutions take him, Putin will need to retain old friends and acquire some more. China has proved a good friend when its interests align with his, and this has continued with the signing of thirty year gas deal earlier this year. This economic boost has been combined with a developing ‘Asia Focus’ of Russia, including increased activity within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. While to an extent this has been forced on Russia by the need to secure new markets, as it seeks to survive current sanctions, it is also a continuation of Putin’s desire to grow Russian influence and reach in ways that will strengthen its national security.
This policy has been successful though, because whilst European Union and the Anglosphere have imposed sanctions because of Russian actions in Ukraine; Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Central/South America haven’t. Furthermore, as long as Putin retains the loyalty, or at least acquiescence of the majority of Russia’s people, as well as perhaps more importantly the security services and defence forces, he should secure.
Survival
Going for survival would be the easier option, to resolve to cease support, or at least reduce it to ‘plausibly deniable’ levels, for the Eastern Ukrainian Separatists. Theoretically if done quickly enough this would lead to the Western money markets reopening in time to stave off, or reduce, inflation enough buy the Russian economy time till the petroleum prices stabilise. Such a resolution though would be personally damaging for Putin, it would involve a loss of face for a man who likes to portray himself as ‘SuperPutin’. Although, there would be a bonus for Putin to draw solace from.
One of the things that have been held up by the sanctions are Russia’s French built amphibious ships, the Mistral class vessels Vladivostok & Sevastopol. With the sanctions ended delivery would presumably be reinstated. These are potentially big additions to Russia’s status, they are not only very capable warships, but as evident symbols of national reach and potency, they rank second only to aircraft carriers.
The Russian navy at the moment is weak, despite the increase of funding paid for by past years surging oil prices, it is a hollow force with many of its major units being Cold War Vintage. Therefore the acquisition of these vessels, as well as their sisters which are to be built in Russia, represent for Putin, and Russia, a highly visible (and very useful) demonstrations of the resurgent modern Russia as a world power.
Glory
World Power status has in many ways been Putin’s guiding light, to reclaim for Russia its position of pre-eminence and influence that it enjoyed when Putin served in the KGB. To achieve this he has become almost a modern equivalent to Bismarck, relentlessly working to strength Russia’s position, to secure its sphere of influence and shore up its protection.
Putin’s successes have gained him popularity at home, and have restored confidence to Russia when acting abroad. Resolving therefore to weather the current storms, to carry on making bartering deals such as the recent deal with Argentina of fighter aircraft for food, might well provide Putin with his finest hour. After all, if managed correctly, he could turn the current situation into an ‘us against the world moment’, and with luck on his side use it to silence domestic opposition while establishing trade relationships that will allow Russia to continue to grow independent of the influence of the USA.
In the End…
Putin is a realist. He gambles but he has always pursued whatever he believes to be in the best interests for Russia (and therefore the best for Putin). The logical choice for an outsider would most likely be to make resolutions for survival, while perhaps still trying to build those trade links of the glory resolution for a longer term gain. This position though would possibly also be the most risky for him, because by retreating from Ukraine he would be opening a chink in the armour of ‘SuperPutin’. Such a chink, once seen might be the incentive that his foreign enemies, the opposition, and even less reliable domestic allies seize upon to try to secure power for themselves. This though is all summation, and if there is one thing Putin has proved during his 16 years in power, if there is a way for him to come out on top, he finds it.
The Big Question: In the wake of President Putin's New Year message to world leaders, we suggest what he could have been thinking
For most people a New Year’s Resolution will be something simple, like ‘do more exercise’ or ‘go for a promotion’; for leaders of countries these resolutions are often bigger. President Obama, for example, might well have resolved to spend the remainder of his final term going out with a bang rather than a whimper, and making the best he can of Republican dominated Congress. David Cameron could decide that he is going to redouble efforts on English Votes for English Laws, and seek a final settlement for the West Lothian Question. However, the arguably most important resolutions, will be those of Vladimir Putin – and their content will likely depend upon whether he settles for survival, or once again gamble everything for glory.
Putin’s Russia is at the moment facing mounting external pressures; the falling price of petroleum products that was initiated by Saudi Arabia/OPEC’s decision not to lower output in an attempt to retain market share is hitting Russia’s export based economy hard. This coupled with the ongoing Western sanctions being implemented in response to his actions in Ukraine, is causing rampant inflation. Internally his opponents are growing bolder, but thankfully (from Putin’s perspective), not really more effective.
Whichever course his resolutions take him, Putin will need to retain old friends and acquire some more. China has proved a good friend when its interests align with his, and this has continued with the signing of thirty year gas deal earlier this year. This economic boost has been combined with a developing ‘Asia Focus’ of Russia, including increased activity within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. While to an extent this has been forced on Russia by the need to secure new markets, as it seeks to survive current sanctions, it is also a continuation of Putin’s desire to grow Russian influence and reach in ways that will strengthen its national security.
This policy has been successful though, because whilst European Union and the Anglosphere have imposed sanctions because of Russian actions in Ukraine; Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Central/South America haven’t. Furthermore, as long as Putin retains the loyalty, or at least acquiescence of the majority of Russia’s people, as well as perhaps more importantly the security services and defence forces, he should secure.
Survival
Going for survival would be the easier option, to resolve to cease support, or at least reduce it to ‘plausibly deniable’ levels, for the Eastern Ukrainian Separatists. Theoretically if done quickly enough this would lead to the Western money markets reopening in time to stave off, or reduce, inflation enough buy the Russian economy time till the petroleum prices stabilise. Such a resolution though would be personally damaging for Putin, it would involve a loss of face for a man who likes to portray himself as ‘SuperPutin’. Although, there would be a bonus for Putin to draw solace from.
One of the things that have been held up by the sanctions are Russia’s French built amphibious ships, the Mistral class vessels Vladivostok & Sevastopol. With the sanctions ended delivery would presumably be reinstated. These are potentially big additions to Russia’s status, they are not only very capable warships, but as evident symbols of national reach and potency, they rank second only to aircraft carriers.
The Russian navy at the moment is weak, despite the increase of funding paid for by past years surging oil prices, it is a hollow force with many of its major units being Cold War Vintage. Therefore the acquisition of these vessels, as well as their sisters which are to be built in Russia, represent for Putin, and Russia, a highly visible (and very useful) demonstrations of the resurgent modern Russia as a world power.
Glory
World Power status has in many ways been Putin’s guiding light, to reclaim for Russia its position of pre-eminence and influence that it enjoyed when Putin served in the KGB. To achieve this he has become almost a modern equivalent to Bismarck, relentlessly working to strength Russia’s position, to secure its sphere of influence and shore up its protection.
Putin’s successes have gained him popularity at home, and have restored confidence to Russia when acting abroad. Resolving therefore to weather the current storms, to carry on making bartering deals such as the recent deal with Argentina of fighter aircraft for food, might well provide Putin with his finest hour. After all, if managed correctly, he could turn the current situation into an ‘us against the world moment’, and with luck on his side use it to silence domestic opposition while establishing trade relationships that will allow Russia to continue to grow independent of the influence of the USA.
In the End…
Putin is a realist. He gambles but he has always pursued whatever he believes to be in the best interests for Russia (and therefore the best for Putin). The logical choice for an outsider would most likely be to make resolutions for survival, while perhaps still trying to build those trade links of the glory resolution for a longer term gain. This position though would possibly also be the most risky for him, because by retreating from Ukraine he would be opening a chink in the armour of ‘SuperPutin’. Such a chink, once seen might be the incentive that his foreign enemies, the opposition, and even less reliable domestic allies seize upon to try to secure power for themselves. This though is all summation, and if there is one thing Putin has proved during his 16 years in power, if there is a way for him to come out on top, he finds it.