Syrian Revolution News & Discussions

[BLACKEAGLE]

Insurgents shell main prison near Syrian capital, killing 10

Insurgents have shelled Damascus on several occasions in recent weeks, killing and wounding dozens of people. (File photo: AP)

By AP | Damascus, Syria
Sunday, 23 August 2015

Insurgents shelled the central prison near the Syrian capital Damascus on Sunday as well as residential neighborhoods in the city, killing at least 11 and wounding more than 40.

The Interior Ministry statement, carried by state TV, said the shelling of the prison area killed 10 and wounded 40. It did not say if the dead and wounded included prisoners from the jail known as Adra Prison, just northeast of Damascus. The statement did not say which specific insurgent group was responsible for the attack.

Later Sunday, insurgents fired shells into residential neighborhoods in Damascus killing one person and wounding seven, according to state TV.

Infographic: Insurgents shell main prison near Damascus



(Design by Farwa Rizwan/ Al Arabiya News)


Insurgents have shelled Damascus on several occasions in recent weeks, killing and wounding dozens of people.

Sunday’s shelling of Adra Prison and nearby areas came a day after government airstrikes on a Damascus suburb killed more than 20 people and wounded dozens in the latest wave of government attacks on the crowded rebel-held area.

Also Sunday, state news agency SANA said government air force attacks killed more than 50 militants in the coastal province of Latakia, a stronghold of President Bashar Assad.

Syria’s civil war, now in its fifth year, has killed more than 250,000 people and wounded more than a million according to the U.N.

Last Update: Monday, 24 August 2015 KSA 11:51 - GMT 08:51
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/08/23/Insurgents-shell-main-prison-near-Syrian-capital-killing-10.html

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Syria regime strikes near Damascus kill 34

A wounded Syrian girl looks on at a make shift hospital in the rebel-held area of Douma, east of the capital Damascus, following shelling and air raids by Syrian government forces on August 22, 2015. (AFP)

By AFP | Beirut
Sunday, 23 August 2015

The toll from heavy government bombardment of a rebel stronghold outside the Syrian capital rose on Sunday to 34 civilians including 12 children, a monitoring group said.

Separate rocket attacks killed 11 people in a regime-held neighbourhood northeast of Damascus and one person in the capital itself on Sunday, state television said.

“There are now 34 civilians that were killed in Saturday’s attacks on Douma, among them 12 children and eight women,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad targeted the rebel-held town of Douma with shelling and air raids on Saturday.

By late evening, the Observatory said 20 civilians had been killed, but also that rescuers were still searching for more victims.

“Overnight, they found more victims underneath the rubble, and others who were wounded died,” Abdel Rahman said on Sunday.

He said some strikes killed entire families inside their homes.

Local volunteers and civil defence teams worked on Sunday morning to locate seven people who were still unaccounted for, the Britain-based Observatory said.

The Douma Coordination Committee, a local activist group, published the names and photos of documented casualties on Facebook.

One picture showed a toddler the group said had been rescued from beneath the rubble but who succumbed to his wounds shortly afterwards.

At least 11 air strikes targeted the Eastern Ghouta area, of which Douma is a part, on Sunday. Some hit the town of Arbin, killing four civilians.

On August 16, a series of regime strikes killed more than 117 people -- mostly civilians -- in Douma, sparking international condemnation of the Assad regime.

Eastern Ghouta has been under a government siege for nearly two years and comes under regular air attack.

Meanwhile, northeast of Damascus at least 11 people were killed and 56 wounded by rocket fire outside Adra prison on Sunday, state television said.

It said the rockets were fired by “terrorist groups” and that women and children were among the wounded.

Citing the interior ministry, the broadcaster also said one person was killed and seven wounded in Damascus when “terrorists fired rockets at different parts of the capital”.

Syria’s war, which began in March 2011 with anti-regime protests, has spiralled into a multi-front conflict that has killed more than 240,000 people.

Last Update: Monday, 24 August 2015 KSA 01:07 - GMT 22:07
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/08/23/Toll-from-Syria-regime-strikes-near-Damascus-now-34-.html

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Photo of Russian Landing Ship floating to Syria
By Dylan Vosman -
Aug 23, 2015



On 20 August 2015 the Alligator class landing ship Nikolay Filchenkov made one of her passages through Istanbul. The event was not worth of remembering if there was no cargo on deck of the ship.

During their previous passages Russian landing ships never had cargo on their top deck. Thus it is worth to look closer what Nikolay Filchenkov was carrying since we have new photos from Ms. Eser Çelebiler’s blog:







The help of the new photos we can say that there are 4 KamAZ-4350 6×6 and one GAZ-66 trucks plus 4 BTR type armored personnel carriers. The other items hidden under the tarpaulin arouse the suspension most.

Any additional information or suggestions are welcomed.

Thanks to Yörük Işık and Arda Mevlütoğlu for helping me identifying the trucks and correcting my mistake in identifying the ship.
Photo of Russian Landing Ship floating to Syria | Defence blog

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Russia supplied BTR-82A Armoured Personnel Carrier to Syria
By Dylan Vosman -
Aug 23, 2015



Russia supplied to BTR-82A Armoured Personnel Carrier Syria.

The channel Cirii National Defence Force (NDF) NDF operations posted a video and PAS in the province of Latakia participation of the Russian BTR-82

The BTR-82A is an upgraded version of the BTR-80A wheeled armored vehicles. In December 2008, Russia’s Military Industrial Company (MIC) was already testing the prototypes which were unveiled in December 2009.

In April 2010, Russian defence industry has started to market the BTR-82 and BTR-82A as a modernization program for existing BTR-80 operators. Russia will supply Kazakhstan until 2013, with 100 armoured vehicles BTR-82: 30 in 2011 and 70 in 2012.

The BTR-82A APC can perform combat operations 24 hours a day. The main armament of the APC is 30mm dual-feed automatic cannon. The gun can fire armour piercing-tracer (AP-T) projectiles, high-explosive fragmentation-incendiary (HEF-I) and high-explosive-tracer (HE-T) ammunition.

The secondary armament of the vehicle includes a 7.62mm PKTM coaxial machine gun. The turret incorporates two-axis stabilisation, new sighting channels, and three forward-facing 81mm smoke grenade launchers on each side. The firing elevation ranges from -7° to +70°.


Russia supplied BTR-82A Armoured Personnel Carrier to Syria | Defence blog

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Syrian government no longer controls 83% of the country
Columb Strack - Senior Analyst, Middle East & North Africa at IHS - IHS Jane's Intelligence Review
23 August 2015

The Syrian government lost 18 per cent of its territory between January and August 2015. Credit: IHS Conflict Monitor
Territory fully controlled by President Assad’s forces has shrunk by 18% between 1 January and 10 August 2015 to 29,797 km2, roughly a sixth of the country, according to the latest data insights produced by IHS Conflict Monitor.

In a recently televised speech, President Assad admitted it was necessary to focus on holding certain areas of greater strategic importance, while sacrificing others. The key areas which Assad cannot afford to lose include the capital Damascus, the Alawite coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartous, and the city of Homs as the vital connection between them. These are likely to be defended, even at the expense of losing other major cities like Aleppo or Dar’a.

Assad also stated that manpower shortages were the greatest challenge to the government’s war effort. The Syrian Army is believed to have lost around 50% of its pre-war strength of 300,000. Many of the remaining soldiers are very young Alawite conscripts, sent to the front lines with minimal training and low morale.

For more than a year, the government has been carrying out spot checks on young men in the streets of Alawite cities, according to an IHS source in Latakia. Those unable to provide a valid exemption from service are immediately detained and enrolled in the army.

A day before his speech, President Assad issued a pardon to anyone who had evaded military service, on the condition that they enrol or re-join the army. This indicates that the government no longer has the capacity to replace soldiers killed or wounded with Syrians, and will become even more reliant on foreign fighters to bolster its ranks.

Increased territorial losses suffered by the government since March 2015 are most likely a direct result of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar stepping up their support for Sunni groups, and creating new powerful coalitions such as Jaysh al-Fatah.

However, there is another factor which is likely to drive further government losses over the coming months. The Islamic State is seeking to expand operations in western Syria, and extend its territorial control from the recently seized Palmyra area to the Lebanese border.

Islamic State fighters crossed from Lebanon on 20 July, seizing control from Hizbullah and Syrian government forces in the mountainous Tallat Na’imat area, near the border south of Homs. They have since used the area to besiege the Syrian Army's 67th Brigade base, which lies adjacent to the M5 highway, the main transport link between Damascus and the city of Homs. The Islamic State is also approaching the same area from the east, where it took control of Qariyatayn on 5 August.

Due to its key strategic significance, government forces will most likely redeploy significant resources from other front lines to the M5 highway, in order to prevent the remaining government-held areas in western Syria from being divided.

Even if government forces are successful in defending their core territory against the Islamic State, it will probably come at the expense of losing further territory on the periphery in the coming weeks and months, most likely including the southern city of Dar’a.

The IHS Conflict Monitor records about 1,000 manually geocoded indicator events for Syria and Iraq every week from social media and other open sources, feeding into a dataset that reaches back to January 2014. The Monitor includes regular analysis of the data by IHS experts, delivering unique insight into the tactics, activities and capabilities of armed actors, as well as mapping the progression of the conflict in unprecedented detail.
Syrian government no longer controls 83% of the country - IHS Jane's 360

 

[Scorpion]

Syrian government no longer controls 83% of the country
Columb Strack - Senior Analyst, Middle East & North Africa at IHS - IHS Jane's Intelligence Review
23 August 2015

The Syrian government lost 18 per cent of its territory between January and August 2015. Credit: IHS Conflict Monitor
Territory fully controlled by President Assad’s forces has shrunk by 18% between 1 January and 10 August 2015 to 29,797 km2, roughly a sixth of the country, according to the latest data insights produced by IHS Conflict Monitor.

In a recently televised speech, President Assad admitted it was necessary to focus on holding certain areas of greater strategic importance, while sacrificing others. The key areas which Assad cannot afford to lose include the capital Damascus, the Alawite coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartous, and the city of Homs as the vital connection between them. These are likely to be defended, even at the expense of losing other major cities like Aleppo or Dar’a.

Assad also stated that manpower shortages were the greatest challenge to the government’s war effort. The Syrian Army is believed to have lost around 50% of its pre-war strength of 300,000. Many of the remaining soldiers are very young Alawite conscripts, sent to the front lines with minimal training and low morale.

For more than a year, the government has been carrying out spot checks on young men in the streets of Alawite cities, according to an IHS source in Latakia. Those unable to provide a valid exemption from service are immediately detained and enrolled in the army.

A day before his speech, President Assad issued a pardon to anyone who had evaded military service, on the condition that they enrol or re-join the army. This indicates that the government no longer has the capacity to replace soldiers killed or wounded with Syrians, and will become even more reliant on foreign fighters to bolster its ranks.

Increased territorial losses suffered by the government since March 2015 are most likely a direct result of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar stepping up their support for Sunni groups, and creating new powerful coalitions such as Jaysh al-Fatah.

However, there is another factor which is likely to drive further government losses over the coming months. The Islamic State is seeking to expand operations in western Syria, and extend its territorial control from the recently seized Palmyra area to the Lebanese border.

Islamic State fighters crossed from Lebanon on 20 July, seizing control from Hizbullah and Syrian government forces in the mountainous Tallat Na’imat area, near the border south of Homs. They have since used the area to besiege the Syrian Army's 67th Brigade base, which lies adjacent to the M5 highway, the main transport link between Damascus and the city of Homs. The Islamic State is also approaching the same area from the east, where it took control of Qariyatayn on 5 August.

Due to its key strategic significance, government forces will most likely redeploy significant resources from other front lines to the M5 highway, in order to prevent the remaining government-held areas in western Syria from being divided.

Even if government forces are successful in defending their core territory against the Islamic State, it will probably come at the expense of losing further territory on the periphery in the coming weeks and months, most likely including the southern city of Dar’a.

The IHS Conflict Monitor records about 1,000 manually geocoded indicator events for Syria and Iraq every week from social media and other open sources, feeding into a dataset that reaches back to January 2014. The Monitor includes regular analysis of the data by IHS experts, delivering unique insight into the tactics, activities and capabilities of armed actors, as well as mapping the progression of the conflict in unprecedented detail.
Syrian government no longer controls 83% of the country - IHS Jane's 360

But who is controlling the rest? ISIS and the Kurds have most of it. FSA left alone.

 

[Redheart]

Syrian Shiites Take Up Arms in Support of Assad's Army - US News

n the four years since the start of the civil war in Syria, Shiite groups have been fighting militant Salafists alongside the Syrian army. The most prominent of these groups is the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, whose presence has had a direct impact on developments on the ground in Syria.

Recently, however, another Shiite group in Syria has caught the media's attention. Quwat al-Ridha has stepped into the limelight because unlike other Shiite militias, whose ranks are made up of people coming in from abroad, members of this group belong to Syria's small Shiite community.

According to a report by Orient News, which covers Syria-related news from the United Arab Emirates, Iran is behind the creation of this new Shiite militia. However, it has not been able to provide more details regarding this new brigade. No information has been provided by Persian-language websites either.

However, in an interview with Al-Monitor, Hussein al-Diyab — who hails from a Shiite district of Homs — offered some details on Quwat al-Ridha. Diyab says Hezbollah is responsible for organizing, training and equipping the group and that Quwat al-Ridha can be considered the core of what he calls "Hezbollah in Syria." Diyab, who long ago moved to Iran to study at the Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, says both of his brothers — one holding a master's degree in mathematics and the other with a bachelor's degree in Arabic literature — are members of Quwat al-Ridha. He told Al-Monitor, "Our family lived in the city of Homs, but when the crisis started, considering the opposition's violent treatment of Shiites, our family decided to return to our ancestral village of Thabetiya. There are a lot of Shiite villages in the western part of Homs province, and our family thought that it would be safer there."

Diyab also explained how the Syrian crisis followed his family and other Syrian Shiites all the way to the border villages: "One of the first and biggest suicide attacks organized by the Islamic State, involving seven tons of explosives, struck our village. This lack of security and other concerns resulted in my older brother, who was one of the best math teachers in Homs, leaving his job and putting on a military uniform."

The Quwat al-Ridha brigade is made up of Shiites from the Syrian province of Homs. This region borders Lebanon to its west, and there are so-called Twelver Shiites living on both sides of the border. Of note, Twelver Shiism is considered the mainstream in Shiite Islam. Its adherents form the majority of the population in Iran, Iraq and Bahrain, as well as a plurality in Lebanon. However, Syria's Twelver Shiite community is very small, and usually counted alongside the Alawites. Although these two sects have clear doctrinal differences, their Syrian adherents largely support President Bashar al-Assad, who is an Alawite. What greatly binds these minorities is shared fear of the consequences of a radical Islamist takeover. Other minorities, such as Syrian Christians and Kurds, while perhaps not supportive of Assad, nevertheless also have these anxieties.

On the whole, there are 170,000 Shiites living in the province of Homs, which is about half of the Twelver Shiite population of Syria.

Quwat al-Ridha has made a marked impact on the ground so far. Its forces had an effective — and independent — presence in the operation that led to the liberation of the city of Homs and the Shaer gas fields in the eastern part of Homs province. Alongside the Syrian army and Hezbollah, they also participated in breaking the siege on the two Shiite towns of Nubl and Al-Zahraa farther north, in the province of Aleppo. They have additionally participated in battles for the other two Shiite towns of Al-Fu'ah and Kufriya in the province of Idlib, as well as fighting in Daraa, Qalamoun and Ghouta.

Diyab told Al-Monitor that Quwat al-Ridha has a substantial cadre estimated at less than 20,000 members, and said its most prominent commander was Hamza al-Heydar, also known as Hajj Abu Mustafa. Diyab said Heydar was responsible for all Hezbollah special forces operations in the province of Homs, and was eventually killed in the battle for the liberation of Homs' al-Khalidiya district.

The civil war in Syria has turned the country into a battleground for regional powers, which are trying to settle old scores with each other. During the past four years, Iran has continued to support its Arab ally in Damascus, in spite of crippling economic sanctions. On the other hand, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are accused of supporting the rebels. The violence has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and forced millions to flee.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Two Russian aid planes land in Syria: Report

Members of the Syrian Red Crescent unloading a Russian plane carrying humanitarian aid on the tarmac of the Martyr Bassil al-Assad international airport in the government-controlled coastal city of Latakia. (AFP)

By AFP | Damascus
Saturday, 12 September 2015

Two Russian planes carrying humanitarian aid landed in Syria on Saturday, state media said, amid reports that Moscow is beefing up military support to its ally Damascus.

“Two Russian planes arrived today at the Latakia Martyr Bassil al-Assad international airport carrying 80 tons of humanitarian aid provided by Russia,” state news reported.

Coastal Latakia province is a stronghold of President Bashar al-Assad and home to his ancestral village.

The reported aid delivery comes as Washington expressed concern about an alleged Russian military build-up in Syria.

U.S. officials say Russia has sent ships, armored personnel carriers and naval infantry to the country in recent weeks.

And on Friday, Cypriot officials said Russia had issued an alert for Cyprus to divert aircraft next week because it is planning military exercises off Syria's coast.

Also Friday, President Barack Obama said Russia's decision to send military advisors and equipment to bolster Assad was only extending a strategy “doomed to failure.”

“The strategy that they are pursuing right now, doubling down on Assad, I think is a big mistake,” Obama said.

Moscow and Syria have denied any Russian military build-up, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday that Damascus would receive additional help if it requested it.

“We helped, are continuing to help and will help the Syrian government when it comes to supplying the Syrian army with everything it needs,” he said.

“Russia is sending planes to Syria with both military equipment in accordance with current contracts and humanitarian aid,” he said.

“Russia is not taking any additional steps.”

Moscow has been a staunch ally of the Assad government throughout the uprising that began in March 2011 and later descended into a civil war.

It maintains a naval base in Tartus province, south of Latakia province.

Syrian media has reported Russian deliveries of humanitarian aid sporadically throughout the conflict, but Saturday's report follows specific claims about a Russian military build-up.

U.S. officials this week said two tank-landing ships had arrived recently at the Tartus base, but most of the apparent build-up was focused on the Bassil al-Assad airport.

They said at least four transport flights had arrived in recent days, with dozens of Russian naval infantry also coming in.

Russia has also reportedly installed temporary housing sufficient for “hundreds of people” at the airport, along with portable air traffic control equipment.

More than 240,000 people have been killed in Syria since the conflict began, with Assad's government losing increasingly large parts of the territory to rebels or jihadist forces like the Islamic State group.

The regime has relied for support on a few staunch allies, particularly Russia and Iran.

Last Update: Saturday, 12 September 2015 KSA 19:23 - GMT 16:23
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/09/12/Two-Russian-aid-planes-land-in-Syria-Report.html

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Australian aircraft in first mission in Syria

A Royal Australian Air Force FA-18 Hornet performs during an airshow at the Avalon Airfield near Lara, southwest of Melbourne (File photo: AFP)

By AFP | Sydney
Saturday, 12 September 2015

Australian aircraft have completed their first operation in Syria, defense officials said Saturday, just days after Canberra extended the mission from Iraq to better fight ISIS militants.

“The Australian Air Task Group completed its first operational mission in Syria overnight, returning to base in the Middle East without incident,” the defense department said in a statement.

“No weapons were released during the mission.”

The statement added that two Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18A Hornets, a KC-30A air-to-air refueling aircraft and E-7A Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft were used.

Australia Air Task Group Commander, Air Commodore Stu Bellingham said the Hornets were searching for enemy activity in eastern Syria, reporting to the international coalition’s Combined Air Operations Centre.

“The Hornets were also prepared for any short notice high priority tasking which could include surveillance and weapons release,” Bellingham said.

Australia was already part of the coalition fighting ISIS in Iraq but this week extended air operations into Syria, saying the legal basis was the collective self-defense of Iraq against the militant group which does not respect borders.

“We cannot defeat Daesh in Iraq without defeating Daesh in Syria too,” Prime Minister Tony Abbott said when he made the announcement, using the alternate name for the violent militants who control swathes of Syria and neighboring Iraq.

Australian aircraft will continue to plan and conduct air strikes against Daesh as part of the coalition effort to disrupt and degrade the group’s stronghold, the defense department statement said.

“Daesh controls a large amount of territory in eastern Syria that serves as a source of recruitment and oil revenues, and as a base from which it continues to launch attacks into Iraq,” Bellingham added

Last Update: Saturday, 12 September 2015 KSA 09:06 - GMT 06:06
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/09/12/Australian-aircraft-in-first-mission-in-Syria-.html

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

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[BLACKEAGLE]

Map: The Military Situation in NorthEast Damascus | Syria | September 12, 2015 | archicivilians

 

[Scorpion]

That is why you see Putin aid to Assad non stop these days.^^

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Syria insurgents claim to have freed British woman

A coalition of several insurgent groups in Syria is claiming that it has freed a British woman and her five children who were kidnapped in the country. (File photo: Reuters)

The Associated Press, Beirut
Tuesday, 22 September 2015

A coalition of several insurgent groups in Syria is claiming that it has freed a British woman and her five children who were kidnapped in the country.

The statement by Jabha al-Shamiya, or the Levant Front, was reported Tuesday by the U.S- based SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors militant websites.

On the group’s Facebook page, it adds the woman had traveled to an area controlled by the rival Islamic State of Iraq and Syria group (ISIS) to convince her husband to leave, but failed. The Front, mostly operating in northern Aleppo province, said the woman was kidnapped as she fled from the ISIS-held area; it didn’t identify her kidnappers.

The British Foreign Office said a British woman and her five children have been reported missing in Turkey, but wouldn’t confirm it is the same case.

Last Update: Tuesday, 22 September 2015 KSA 20:42 - GMT 17:42
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/09/22/Syria-insurgents-claim-to-have-freed-British-woman.html

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Can Assad establish an Alawite state in Syria?
Wednesday, 23 September 2015

Can Syrian President Bashar al-Assad establish an Alawite state? The reason we ask this question is the unprecedented Russian military intervention in Syria, the biggest in the Middle East since the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat expelled Soviet military advisers in 1972.

Russian military activity in Syria is mostly in Latakia and the coastal area extending to Tartus in the south. This area is viewed as a possible project for an Alawite state in case the regime collapses or the Syrian state disintegrates.

Civil war will follow Assad wherever he goes in Syria.

Abdulrahman al-Rashed
Russian forces, fighter jets and the construction of airports, residential compounds and warehouses in Syria can be clearly seen in the photos snapped by American satellites. These photos have pushed Washington to officially inquire about the Russians’ aims.

Russia sparks suspicion
My article last week – on whether Assad is seeking the help of the Russians to reduce the domination of its Iranian ally – was within the context of this scenario, and the dangerous development of the Russians’ intervention in Syria.

We must however doubt the narrative of Assad’s dispute with the Iranians being the reason that he resorted to the Russians. We must doubt this for several reasons, such as the fact that the Iranians are stronger than the Russians in Syria, and that they also militarily surround Syria given their involvements in Iraq and Lebanon. Despite that, the intentions of Russian activity remains suspicious and its truth will not be revealed for a long time.

Dividing Syria a difficult aim
If we take the possibility of dividing Syria, and assume that Assad plans to resort to the coast of the Mediterranean to establish an Alawite state due to the increased attacks on the capital, then building such a state there and protecting it will be more difficult than maintaining governance in Syria.

There has been much talk of dividing Syria since the uprising of the Syrian people in 2011. It’s now in the spotlight again due to the Russians’ heavy presence around Latakia, the largest port city, and Tartus.

The concept of dividing Syria is not as easy as some think, as most governments oppose it given the dangerous repercussions for regional countries.

And previous divisions have proven that they increase the region’s problems, rather than put an end to them. The events since the divisions in Iraq in 1991 are an example of that. The international community, to this day, opposes the idea of the Iraqis’ act of solving their disputes via divisions – because such solutions merely divide Iraq into several states fighting together.

There’s also the case of Somalia, which has been through a bitter experience ever since the regime collapsed following the death of President Siad Barre. Somalia has been in chaos for more than 20 years now, and it’s divided into at least three statelets, including Somaliland, which declared its independence two decades ago and it has its own government, police and currency; however, no one recognizes it.

Perpetual civil war
Therefore, if Assad escapes Damascus to Latakia or to Qardaha and decides to build his republic there, it will not guarantee international recognition.

And there are two more dangerous factors about a potential Alawite state. The first is civil war, which will follow Assad wherever he goes in Syria. Assad will be the target of all angry Syrians and he will not be capable of providing permanent international protection for his new state.

The second factor is that Alawites themselves will consider Assad a burden and will blame him for their disaster. We must not forget that most of the Alawite elites left the country to Europe and Gulf countries after the crisis erupted, as they were aware of the size of the threat Assad had subjected them to. There’s no reason that obliges the sons of the Alawite sect, which represents 10 percent of the population, to accept that the Assad family governs them. Former President Hafez al-Assad at least used patriotic and nationalistic slogans to unite the Syrians under his rule – but his son Bashar has entered a war against the majority of citizens, and he enabled some of his relatives to manage the country’s resources and assume high-ranking posts of authority.

Assad is aware that there’s no place to go to if he leaves his castle in Damascus. This is why he rejects all the suggestions calling on him to step down and give up governance. To stay in power, he scarified 250,000 people and displaced more than 12 million. In addition, the barrel bombs his forces used have destroyed most cities.

By the Iranians’ continuous presence in Syria and the emergence of Russian troops, the two allies – Russia and Iran – are playing a lost game in holding on to Assad. They are now trying to suggest ideas and send more troops so Assad remains in power. The question is: For how long will they bear the losses?

This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat.
__________________________________________________________
Abdulrahman al-Rashed is the former General Manager of Al Arabiya News Channel. A veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist, he is a former editor-in-chief of the London-based leading Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, where he still regularly writes a political column. He has also served as the editor of Asharq al-Awsat’s sister publication, al-Majalla. Throughout his career, Rashed has interviewed several world leaders, with his articles garnering worldwide recognition, and he has successfully led Al Arabiya to the highly regarded, thriving and influential position it is in today.

Last Update: Wednesday, 23 September 2015 KSA 11:06 - GMT 08:06
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2015/09/23/Can-Assad-establish-an-Alawite-state-in-Syria-.html

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Warplanes, not diplomacy, on Syria’s horizon
Monday, 21 September 2015

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s call on Saturday for renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Syrian conflict is wishful thinking, amid several indications that if anything, the war is likely to intensify.

The call shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin has outmanoeuvred Washington with his recent ramping up of military aid to the beleaguered Syrian regime, including heavy weaponry, training and advisers. Russian troops are reportedly even engaged in combat in Syria.

Though Washington had been warning against such a build-up, Putin knew it would not reciprocate with an increase in U.S. military aid to Syrian rebels. Opposition groups’ foreign backers have never been as materially supportive as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s allies have been of his regime. Knowledge of this, and the unlikelihood of that changing, must have informed the Russian military build-up.

Moscow’s build-up in Syria will embolden the regime to continue being as intransigent as it has been throughout the conflict.

Sharif Nashashibi
Putin’s gamble – if one can call it that – has paid off, with Washington softening its tone and even attempting a face-saving U-turn. Laughably, Kerry now says the build-up presents an opportunity to progress diplomatically and to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), as if the Assad regime will not use these new Russian weapons to continue slaughtering Syrian civilians.

As Amnesty International pointed out last month: “Time and again, the Syrian government’s Russian-made fighter jets have targeted busy public spaces, including markets or near mosques after prayers, seemingly hell-bent on causing the maximum possible civilian death toll and destruction of the places they frequent.”

Subsequent high-level military talks between Washington and Moscow will not contribute to a diplomatic breakthrough – their aim is likely limited to staying out of each others’ way as they continue their respective operations.

Military build-up
The West may not respond to the Russian build-up, but regional parties such as the Gulf states and Turkey may increase financial and military support to Syrian rebel groups. Such aid contributed to a series of battlefield successes this year, and they will not want to see those gains reversed. However, it will not include the kind of military backing – troops and heavy weaponry such as tanks and warplanes – that Assad is accustomed to.

The Russian build-up will also likely swell the ranks of jihadist groups in Syria. Just as they have played on anti-Western and anti-Shiite sentiment to encourage recruitment, they can now also use the presence – or even just the prospect – of Russian boots on the ground to stir up bitter memories of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

The Soviet withdrawal was brought about by jihadist fighters who would later form Al-Qaeda. And Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, is one of the most formidable military opponents of the Assad regime and its allies, as well as ISIS and Western-backed rebel groups.

Regime confidence
Moscow’s build-up in Syria will embolden the regime to continue being as intransigent as it has been throughout the conflict. Assad was way off the mark in arrogantly predicting in April that “this year, the active phase of military action in Syria will be ended.”

However, his confidence will have since been renewed not just by Moscow’s muscle-flexing, but by the recent Iran nuclear deal, which entails the lifting of sanctions that will enable an increase in Tehran’s support for Assad. Both have since reiterated the unwavering strength of their alliance.

The U.S.-led coalition war against ISIS has not only failed to significantly weaken the jihadist group after more than a year, but has also played into Assad’s hands by allowing him to focus more forcefully on fighting rebels that are opposed to both him and ISIS. Even U.S. officials have acknowledged the benefit to him.

Assad and his allies are portraying his regime as indispensible in the fight against ISIS (ignoring, of course, their pivotal role in the latter’s creation and expansion). Those duplicitous efforts have been somewhat successful in the West, where a growing number of officials and members of the public have begun to view the Assad regime as the lesser of two evils.

Countering this flawed view, Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, wrote last month that “the greatest threat to Syrian civilians” comes not from ISIS, but from the Assad regime’s barrel bombs. ISIS “has distracted us from this deadly reality,” Roth added. “Too few people understand the extraordinary slaughter that the Syrian military is committing with its barrel bombs.”

Intransigence
The regime has consistently insisted that Assad’s future is not up for negotiation, and has refused to discuss any meaningful transition of power. The above factors mean that Assad, who in July admitted that manpower shortages meant his army could no longer control the whole country, may be willing to bide his time in light of increasing assistance from foreign allies and his opponents’ divisions.

This will mean continued regime intransigence in any future diplomatic efforts, not that there is anything noteworthy on the horizon. Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. special envoy on Syria since July 2014, has made no headway since his appointment, and nor did his predecessors. And Moscow’s increasing military support for Assad will hurt its attempts – however superficial and hypocritical – to play mediator.

The result of all this will be the prolongation and escalation of the conflict on the ground, while diplomacy will remain the hollow buzzword in press conferences, official statements and media interviews. Expect more corpses on Syrian streets and European shores.

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Sharif Nashashibi, a regular contributor to Al Arabiya News, The Middle East magazine and the Guardian, is an award-winning journalist and frequent interviewee on Arab affairs. He is co-founder of Arab Media Watch, an independent, non-profit watchdog set up in 2000 to strive for objective coverage of Arab issues in the British media. With an MA in International Journalism from London's City University, Nashashibi has worked and trained at Dow Jones Newswires, Reuters, the U.N. Development Programme in Palestine, the Middle East Broadcasting Centre, the Middle East Economic Survey in Cyprus, and the Middle East Times, among others. In 2008, he received the International Media Council's "Breakaway Award," given to promising new journalists, "for both facilitating and producing consistently balanced reporting on the highly emotive and polarized arena that is the Middle East." He can be found on Twitter: @sharifnash


Last Update: Monday, 21 September 2015 KSA 11:20 - GMT 08:20
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2015/09/21/Warplanes-not-diplomacy-on-Syria-s-horizon.html