The Experts Agree: Europe Is Doomed

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George Friedman has a reputation as a geopolitical thinker, one who tries to work out the balance of forces in today’s world. Stratfor, the consultancy he founded some 20 years ago, puts out highly regarded and mostly speculative studies. He is the author of several books, the latest of which is Flash Points, whose subtitle — The Emerging Crisis in Europe — gives away the game. Opening chapters describe how Europe took its time to become the standard-bearer of civilization, only to throw everything away in the 31 deadly years between 1914 and 1945. In the turmoil, he and his family — originally Hungarian — escaped the Nazis and the Communists only by chance. In Friedman’s view, Germany is once more unsettling Europe. Of course Germans do not want to go to war, but because of national character and geography they are the strongest power among a lot of lesser nation-states unable to handle it. Playing the part that has come their way, Germans are “simultaneously afraid of what they have achieved and tremendously proud of it,” as Friedman puts it. Chance again: The collapse of the Soviet Union granted Germany a free hand. Vladimir Putin should not be seen as a bad man but merely a realist doing what anyone in his position would do: pushing to recover lost ground. Invading and taking possession of parts of Georgia, Putin discovered that “NATO’s military capacity is minimal,” as Friedman sums it up. The fighting in Ukraine is thus part of the process of drawing the line between Russia and Germany on the west of the continent, the line that Hitler and Stalin so disastrously failed to draw. Poland and the Baltic republics are likely to be tested next. The European Union is another institution with minimal capacity. Its foundational promise of peace and prosperity was an attractive illusion. The breakup of Yugoslavia and the current financial crisis show that national sovereignty trumps any common European purpose. “Shambles” is the term Friedman applies to the EU. Belgium, Spain, and the United Kingdom contain forces of disintegration. France has become a kind of wraith. The prophets of doom and downfall are unanimous. Walter Laqueur predicts that Europeans have a future as tourist guides, ski instructors, gondoliers, and the like. Christopher Caldwell outlines the coming Muslim take-over. George Friedman’s moral must be to get out of the continent while the going is good.

Source: National Review
 

Falcon29

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What is the meaning of 'doomed' here? The EU not being able to agree on shared budget, etc...and some countries threatening to withdraw? Or idea of war? War is unlikely, Russia was taking what it saw as strategic move. It doesn't have expansionist agenda. Expanisionist agenda is difficult to maintain with states. Non state actors can indulge in expansionism. Surprisingly, Israel is only nation state which is running that policy without consequences. Russia on other hand would be treated differently, and there is no endgame to such visions. World would fall into crisis. No one wants that major crisis unless financial troubles begin to take shape.
 
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Falcon, I agree with your statements on this. I would have to try to figure out what the meaning of doomed is as well. Unless, it is referring to the Christian majority in Europe being doomed to a Muslim takeover as was mentioned I believe in the last sentence.
 

Falcon29

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Falcon, I agree with your statements on this. I would have to try to figure out what the meaning of doomed is as well. Unless, it is referring to the Christian majority in Europe being doomed to a Muslim takeover as was mentioned I believe in the last sentence.
I don't expect a Muslim take over, those are exaggerations. Unlike other Muslims, I'm not someone who cares about converting people or settling all over the world. If my homeland wasn't under occupation I wouldn't be here.
 

Eileen100

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I agree with falcon also, "doomed" is so far fetched. Calm down... There is always going to be a crisis your a country with a very important part of history attached to it. I don't believe Muslims would even be so bold as to go to war with Germany. Most of these terrorist groups are small compared to their army. The media coverage is what's large. I believe they don't want to go to war because they don't have to.
 
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As someone actually lives in Europe and was born here, I am British and Europe has always been segregated. It will never be truly united as there are too many egotistical leaders. The EU is a sham and is good for a few things, trade and tax incentives and that's it. They should keep it simple and then let each country do their own thing as they have done for centuries.

The EU countries don't trust each other and never will. Europe isn't doomed, but the EU is.
 
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I do not agree with this man's assessment. He forgets, or does not acknowledge, that God is still in control. God has a purpose for every part of the world and has people in every part of the world, some under extreme persecution and some not. Even if there is a growing Muslim population in Europe, it does not mean that there are not still Christians there, or that those nations will fall apart entirely.

For one thing there is definitely an anti-Muslim sentiment as a result of the terrorist attacks that have happened there recently. While most people probably agree that not all people who practice a form of Islam are in support of terrorism, it is only logical that non-Muslims, in response to these tragedies will want to be more careful about who they let into their countries and more vigilant in regard to the activities of Muslims already there.
 
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You're blowing things out of proportion. Europe is not doomed. If it is, then what would that make Syria, Cameroon, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Iran and Pakistan where terrorist groups are currently killing people and desecrating sacred sites? Every country experiences economic, political and social fluctuations. You shouldn't be surprised. Europe is in a far better situation than many Middle East and African countries. Greek's economy is spiralling downward, but it's not altogether hopeless.
 
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