Why the Failed U.S.-Taliban Talks Represent a Victory for India | World Defense

Why the Failed U.S.-Taliban Talks Represent a Victory for India

Mangus Ortus Novem

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Why the Failed U.S.-Taliban Talks Represent a Victory for India
New Delhi has never recognized the Taliban as a legitimate political actor.


The highlights this week: Regional reactions to the end of the Afghan peace talks, an internet shutdown in Bangladesh, India’s failed moon landing, and the death of a protester in Kashmir.



What’s Next for the Region After Afghan Talks Declared “Dead”

When U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that the peace talks with the Taliban were “dead,” it would have been fair to wonder if there may be a reversal at some point. After all, one issue that Trump’s White House has shown consistency on is its desire to bring U.S. troops back home—and there is wide consensus that a rushed withdrawal without sustained peace could backfire.


The Taliban responded to Trump’s weekend tweets calling off a proposed Camp David summit on Afghanistan with its own message on Twitter, making clear that it had all the time in the world: “The Islamic Emirate has a solid and unwavering policy,” wrote spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid (translated in full by FP). “We called for dialogue 20 years ago and maintain the same stance today. And we believe the United States shall return to this position as well.”


Internal differences. Plans to host the Afghan insurgent group at Camp David divided Trump’s national security team, as FP’s reporting has shown, and confirmed Tuesday with the resignation of National Security Advisor John Bolton. Bolton had been opposed to talking to the Taliban, in stark opposition to the stance of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who appeared on all five major Sunday talk shows and said “you often have to deal with some pretty bad actors” to negotiate peace. But even Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham told the Washington Post, “We dodged a bullet here.”


And in a somewhat rare occurrence, nine former U.S. officials with experience in Afghanistan—including five former ambassadors to the country—described how the talks went against core U.S. values in a post on the Atlantic Council website. “Whether or not the United States wants or is willing to keep some forces engaged, we should not undercut the legitimate government in Afghanistan by keeping them out of negotiations,” they wrote.


Regional fallout. Pakistan, often blamed for violence and instability in Afghanistan, had become a crucial go-between for the Afghan talks given its ability to help bring the Taliban to the table. The collapse of negotiations will give Pakistan pause, but it is likely to remain an important arbiter in Afghanistan as Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government seeks to tighten ties with Trump’s White House.


Officials in India, meanwhile, are likely to be sighing with relief—for now—as they look ahead to Afghanistan’s presidential elections later this month. New Delhi, which is seen as having close ties with Kabul’s civilian leaders, is the only major regional capital that refuses to officially recognize the Taliban as a legitimate political actor. It has viewed the U.S.-led talks as a potential disaster.


Gautam Mukhopadhaya, who served as India’s ambassador to Afghanistan, wrote in an email that the collapse of negotiations “will at least pull Afghanistan from the brink of a disaster foretold—for the moment.” He added, “India should support the Afghan elections in principle as an exercise of Afghan sovereignty and the basis of an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, Afghan-controlled peace process.”


Election worries. As shown below, one consistent trend is that Afghans increasingly fear for their personal safety, despite the enduring the presence of troops. If the presidential election goes ahead this month, millions will once again have to decide whether to participate—even at the cost of their lives.





September is UNGA time. Before we move on to other stories: a plug for our annual pop-up newsletter, U.N. Brief, delivered from Sept. 23-27 as world leaders convene in New York for the 74th U.N. General Assembly. Sign up for exclusive daily scoops and analysis from diplomatic reporters Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer here.



What We’re Following

Kashmir simmers.
Over a month after New Delhi revoked Kashmir’s special status, tensions in the region are as high as ever. Indian officials confirmed the first death of a protester in the region last Wednesday, and a Pakistani military spokesman warned that India was “sowing the seeds of war” in Kashmir. Over the weekend, India’s national security advisor accused Pakistan of aiding about 230 militants trying to infiltrate Indian-administered Kashmir. The same day, Pakistani police arrested at least 22 demonstrators for clashing with officials during a pro-Kashmiri independence protest near Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir.


[Read Yashraj Sharma’s dispatch from inside Indian-administered Kashmir, where thousands of detainees are locked in makeshift jails.]


Can’t hear you now. South Asia is facing another internet shutdown, this time in Bangladesh. Last Tuesday, Dhaka partially cut off mobile data services—including 3G and 4G—to about a million Rohingyas living in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar. The move comes after failed efforts this month to begin repatriating the refugees back to Myanmar and amid a purported rise in crime in the camps.


Tightening the Belt and Road. Faced with a major financial crisis, Pakistan may be slowing projects launched in the country as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Beyond the fact that Pakistan already owes tens of billions of dollars to China—cash it can’t afford to repay—the country could also be trying to improve ties with the United States.


Hard landing. In July, India launched Chandrayaan-2, a large space orbiter whose Vikram lander was supposed to touch down on the moon last Friday, making India the fourth country to achieve the feat. Unfortunately, over the weekend Vikram lost contact with its earth-bound operators and presumably crashed. On Monday, officials from the Indian Space Research Organization confirmed that they had located the landing module on the lunar surface, although it is unclear how much damage it has sustained.

 

maxpane

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sir am not an expert but i want to say that afghan peace is imminent and us-taliban and other major stake holders like Pakistan , China , Russia and iran all want peace. indians right now on moon i mean they are really happy that trump did not sign that deal may be trump give them time so they can go back because nobody want their presence in afghanistan.
there is an other news about bolton who kicked out by trump because of some issues and afghanistan is one of the issue and i think after bolton there is a strong chance that with in a month or two there would be a peace deal and Pakistan would get what she deserve is peace in her backyard and way to central asia and india would face real trouble diplomatically as well as militarily .
If trump does not act wisely then he would lose Pakistan's support and all his soldiers would feel that heat and he could lose hi election which he wont want .
i believe there is peace deal before election
 

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My Paks,

Your views/analys/critique on this emerging... rather planned scenario, please.

By the look of things we, Paks, are taken for the ride once again. Are we that stupid?


Mangus
Afghanistan scenario is a complicated one. I am pretty sure that negotiations will begin again and cannot be started without Pakistan's assistance. USA cannot pull out of Afghanistan just like that, because this would leave a vacuum for China and Russia.

Without a peace deal US influence and presence would not be significant. Remember Taliban are the most powerful faction in Afghanistan at the moment. The way they entered Kunduz was a statement. There can be no peace in Afghanistan without Taliban. They presence would remain in Afghanistan and sooner the US understands this better for them.
 
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Pakistanis made the mistake of overestimating their importance with regards to Afghanistan. Their endgame was to somehow use their perceived leverage in Afghanistan to force international intervention in Kashmir. However, the UNSC has refused to mediate on the Kashmir issue, and all relevant powers such as the US, Russia, and even the Taliban itself have rejected tying Afghanistan to Kashmir. Now, Pakistan finds itself isolated on both fronts.
 

TsAr

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Pakistanis made the mistake of overestimating their importance with regards to Afghanistan. Their endgame was to somehow use their perceived leverage in Afghanistan to force international intervention in Kashmir. However, the UNSC has refused to mediate on the Kashmir issue, and all relevant powers such as the US, Russia, and even the Taliban itself have rejected tying Afghanistan to Kashmir. Now, Pakistan finds itself isolated on both fronts.
I think you need to look up the word isolation in the dictionary again.
 

Shazam

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Pakistanis made the mistake of overestimating their importance with regards to Afghanistan. Their endgame was to somehow use their perceived leverage in Afghanistan to force international intervention in Kashmir. .... Now, Pakistan finds itself isolated on both fronts.
If this isolation means that Kashmir Issue is raised in UNSC after 50 years then it is a welcome isolation.

If this isolation means EU has taken up the matter as serious cause for concern to human rights in iok then its a welcome isolation.

If this isolation means biggest international demonstrations on the streets of London, Paris, New york, Washington, Istanbul, Dhaka etc etc, not to mention all over IOK and Azad Kashmir as well Pakistan, then its a welcome isolation.

If this isolation means that Taliban and the US continue to engage in war and try to gain position of strength to achieve better results in re-negotiations then this isolation of Pakistan can only be termed as nightmare for Indian Hindutwa Leadership lookong for any sign of support from a battered Afghanistan of all contries, lol, to come to Indias aid, lol...

What a pethetic situation butcher of Gujrat NAZI Hitler Modi has dragged and entangled the corpse of secular Indian democracy by his fascist policies of Rape, murder and oppression in Particular; Kashmir and the rest of India, in general.
 

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Khafee

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I think you need to look up the word isolation in the dictionary again.
If this isolation means that Kashmir Issue is raised in UNSC after 50 years then it is a welcome isolation.

If this isolation means EU has taken up the matter as serious cause for concern to human rights in iok then its a welcome isolation.

If this isolation means biggest international demonstrations on the streets of London, Paris, New york, Washington, Istanbul, Dhaka etc etc, not to mention all over IOK and Azad Kashmir as well Pakistan, then its a welcome isolation.

If this isolation means that Taliban and the US continue to engage in war and try to gain position of strength to achieve better results in re-negotiations then this isolation of Pakistan can only be termed as nightmare for Indian Hindutwa Leadership lookong for any sign of support from a battered Afghanistan of all contries, lol, to come to Indias aid, lol...

What a pethetic situation butcher of Gujrat NAZI Hitler Modi has dragged and entangled the corpse of secular Indian democracy by his fascist policies of Rape, murder and oppression in Particular; Kashmir and the rest of India, in general.
:xD:
 

Shazam

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My Paks,

Your views/analys/critique on this emerging... rather planned scenario, please.

By the look of things we, Paks, are taken for the ride once again. Are we that stupid?


Mangus
First of all, I have no problem in admitting, just as an analogy, that if Trump asks GOP to start observing Friday as the designated holiday then GOP would not hesitate to adopt it just to stay on the right of USA in matters that are not conflicting to its existential interests and are otherwise just cosmetic. A better analogy may be the arrest and confinement of proscribed organizations but let me stick to the mediocre example to make my point.

The point is that it is not just Pakistan that went on a trip alone but more like in toe with one Donald John Trump.

The American deep state must be mildly amused to see Trump fire Bolten to vent his anger for being taken on a ride unawares when he could have been well informed that it was all a game.

The concerned US interests may well have decided that Trump's Kashmir mediation slipup was enough proof to keep him unawares till the appropriate time.

Of cource, Mr. Trump has learned to comply with the concerned US interests after North Koria experience and he obviously does not want to go down the Kennedy road either, nor would GOP ever want to infuriate Trump unnecessarily but comply to his call to again bring Taliban to the table in its own wishful best interests if a call comes in the very next second.

May I also add, how Daesh plays its part in the Afghan mix and whether it comes up to the mark to the expectations against the Taliban, remains to be seen. That may be the part where India and its allies may find out that they have been taken on a ride by a power beyond earthly confines.

So what difference does this game make? Have we learned any lesson?

It is yet another lesson for GOP and Pakistani establishment that its time to make one final Shift towards China and Russia. Period.

Would we learn it? Not any time soon.
 

Mangus Ortus Novem

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First of all, I have no problem in admitting, just as an analogy, that if Trump asks GOP to start observing Friday as the designated holiday then GOP would not hesitate to adopt it just to stay on the right of USA in matters that are not conflicting to its existential interests and are otherwise just cosmetic. A better analogy may be the arrest and confinement of proscribed organizations but let me stick to the mediocre example to make my point.

The point is that it is not just Pakistan that went on a trip alone but more like in toe with one Donald John Trump.

The American deep state must be mildly amused to see Trump fire Bolten to vent his anger for being taken on a ride unawares when he could have been well informed that it was all a game.

The concerned US interests may well have decided that Trump's Kashmir mediation slipup was enough proof to keep him unawares till the appropriate time.

Of cource, Mr. Trump has learned to comply with the concerned US interests after North Koria experience and he obviously does not want to go down the Kennedy road either, nor would GOP ever want to infuriate Trump unnecessarily but comply to his call to again bring Taliban to the table in its own wishful best interests if a call comes in the very next second.

May I also add, how Daesh plays its part in the Afghan mix and whether it comes up to the mark to the expectations against the Taliban, remains to be seen. That may be the part where India and its allies may find out that they have been taken on a ride by a power beyond earthly confines.

So what difference does this game make? Have we learned any lesson?

It is yet another lesson for GOP and Pakistani establishment that its time to make one final Shift towards China and Russia. Period.

Would we learn it? Not any time soon.


My very dear Pak,


A thoughtful, valuable and studied post... thankyou once again... I enjoyed reading it!!!

The fundamental thing that I fear we haven't understood completely ... yet... is that Perservation of the State is the Highest Virtue. It is The Only Virtue.

Now I wouldn't call that PakState is not doing efforts to Preserve the State... the FACT is that PakState has been doing it since 14 August 1947.

Hungry, weak, stunted growth and uneducated we are.. but we are still here... so none can blame about the Preservation of the State.

It is the Quality of Perservation
... its depth, its scope, its outreach and finally its Planning..and Will to Preserve is what we haven't mastered yet.

Limping, draggin our feet and doubting our own worth... we are moving forward.. slower than a snale...but forward nevertheless.

What I find difficult, now lately painful, to understand is the Sense of Self within PakState... its SelfPerception... its own SelfWorth.... .........

Yes, many of our wounds are mostly self inflicted...but not all of them.

It is the learning capacity and self correction that is perhaps missing in PakState... we swing between two extremes of unreal!

I fear we have never truly realised Our Value... mostly we just hear so called leaders harping about Our Strategic Position... yet nobody has Quantified the Value yet..

Pak's Comprehensive National Strength is scattered because the way PakState is organised.

Perhaps, Organisation of the State is The Key to Preservation of the State.

What do you think?


I do agree that it is time that we come out of the closet and formalise Sino-Pak-Rus Security Framework for SCO landmass.... one pointer of it would be official announcing of CPEC Command.
 

Khafee

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First of all, I have no problem in admitting, just as an analogy, that if Trump asks GOP to start observing Friday as the designated holiday then GOP would not hesitate to adopt it just to stay on the right of USA in matters that are not conflicting to its existential interests and are otherwise just cosmetic. A better analogy may be the arrest and confinement of proscribed organizations but let me stick to the mediocre example to make my point.

The point is that it is not just Pakistan that went on a trip alone but more like in toe with one Donald John Trump.

The American deep state must be mildly amused to see Trump fire Bolten to vent his anger for being taken on a ride unawares when he could have been well informed that it was all a game.

The concerned US interests may well have decided that Trump's Kashmir mediation slipup was enough proof to keep him unawares till the appropriate time.

Of cource, Mr. Trump has learned to comply with the concerned US interests after North Koria experience and he obviously does not want to go down the Kennedy road either, nor would GOP ever want to infuriate Trump unnecessarily but comply to his call to again bring Taliban to the table in its own wishful best interests if a call comes in the very next second.

May I also add, how Daesh plays its part in the Afghan mix and whether it comes up to the mark to the expectations against the Taliban, remains to be seen. That may be the part where India and its allies may find out that they have been taken on a ride by a power beyond earthly confines.

So what difference does this game make? Have we learned any lesson?

It is yet another lesson for GOP and Pakistani establishment that its time to make one final Shift towards China and Russia. Period.

Would we learn it? Not any time soon.
My very dear Pak,


A thoughtful, valuable and studied post... thankyou once again... I enjoyed reading it!!!

The fundamental thing that I fear we haven't understood completely ... yet... is that Perservation of the State is the Highest Virtue. It is The Only Virtue.

Now I wouldn't call that PakState is not doing efforts to Preserve the State... the FACT is that PakState has been doing it since 14 August 1947.

Hungry, weak, stunted growth and uneducated we are.. but we are still here... so none can blame about the Preservation of the State.

It is the Quality of Perservation
... its depth, its scope, its outreach and finally its Planning..and Will to Preserve is what we haven't mastered yet.

Limping, draggin our feet and doubting our own worth... we are moving forward.. slower than a snale...but forward nevertheless.

What I find difficult, now lately painful, to understand is the Sense of Self within PakState... its SelfPerception... its own SelfWorth.... .........

Yes, many of our wounds are mostly self inflicted...but not all of them.

It is the learning capacity and self correction that is perhaps missing in PakState... we swing between two extremes of unreal!

I fear we have never truly realised Our Value... mostly we just hear so called leaders harping about Our Strategic Position... yet nobody has Quantified the Value yet..

Pak's Comprehensive National Strength is scattered because the way PakState is organised.

Perhaps, Organisation of the State is The Key to Preservation of the State.

What do you think?


I do agree that it is time that we come out of the closet and formalise Sino-Pak-Rus Security Framework for SCO landmass.... one pointer of it would be official announcing of CPEC Command.
The issue is that Russia will never be partner to the level China is, hence needs to be addressed adequately to be effectively neutralized.
 

Mangus Ortus Novem

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The issue is that Russia will never be partner to the level China is, hence needs to be addressed adequately to be effectively neutralized.

True that, brother!

Our road to Moscow always need to go through BeiJing... CPEC Phase2 is stuck in mud because of the paralysis of the current GoP... but of course, PakState has kick-started that process already. Pointer: Visits by two PRC delegations in recent weeks.

We must also keep in mind that there are two blocks in Russia.. Eurasian Block and European Block... between these two political thinking processes/forces the policy of Russia is stuck.

Russia is Great Power on Eurasian Chessboard. Russia is a power in the European Chessboard. So, in a way the choice is Russian internal.

Actual growth and consumption is happening in Asia/Eurasia landscape... which is primarily a Sinosphere... or becoming fast. Case in Point is the volume of trade between ASEAN and China... same is the case in North East Asia... in SouthWest/West Asia and Africa it is the same case.

In all this what is the place that Pakistan can create for itself and increase its Comprehensive National Strength... is the question!

Herein, I still advocate a Strategic Security & Economic Framework Agreement between GCC-Pak...

The above mentioned all can change if there is the LastWar between GanguDaesh and Pakistan... then we shall be living in fundamentally changed world.
 

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The Taliban responded to Trump’s weekend tweets calling off a proposed Camp David summit on Afghanistan with its own message on Twitter, making clear that it had all the time in the world: “The Islamic Emirate has a solid and unwavering policy,” wrote spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid (translated in full by FP). “We called for dialogue 20 years ago and maintain the same stance today. And we believe the United States shall return to this position as well.”

This is where AT have an unbeatable, unmatchable advantage, their will to fight, resist and their whole strategy has remained emanating from "You have the watches we have the time", they don't feel the pressure and cost of this war. For them death and destruction have no meaning, they had nothing of value in infrastructure in the first place to lose, their people were already displaced, they were already looked down upon by the world ..... so what did they lose in this 18 years long war that would really hurt them? People roads buildings what exactly? They seem to have an interrupted supply of volunteers fighting for them. Americans should hang Bush and his administration for this treason, the annual 32 billion USD they spent (wasted) to protect child molesting corrupt thugs sitting in Kabul, they could have win much more in Afghanistan and its neighboring countries by spending half of it and increasing cooperation and ties with AT's government then, once AT were brought into mainstream they could have been pressured to change some of their policies. That blunder 18 years ago costed Pakistan a lot, and bought Americans humiliation when they finally realised how good their new ally in the subcontinent is, Trump had asked india to send troops in Afghanistan, now indians can believe that Americans were born yesterday, but in reality you don't try fooling them.

The dialogues and peace talks would resume at some point again, for an 18 year long conflict such temporary halts and interruptions are expected. Even if Trump doesn't win the next election, the incoming US administration has no other real alternate except to talk and recognise AT ..... or they can start a WW3.

India in Afghanistan is like india on moon. They can call it their success, but a primitive, backward, superstitious ideology can win them support of child molesting thugs only ........ they shouldn't really antagonize AT ..... if they don't wish to be isolated.
 

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The issue is that Russia will never be partner to the level China is, hence needs to be addressed adequately to be effectively neutralized.
Hi,

Pakistanis don't know how to approach the russians---. Pakistanis don't know how to approach the americans either---.

As the chinese don't know how to reach across the americans---for that reason we & the chinese are a match---.

Russians have not forgotten the 80's---. Pakistan can approach them but in the manner you approach a big brown grizzly---being respectable---cautious---holding back---understanding the power---respecting their uniqueness---and most of all---showing patience---not being too willing and open---.
 

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