Crisis in the Arabian Gulf

[Persian Gulf]

The unit cost of a MQ-4C Triton is $180m - nearly twice that of a F-35.

Iran also maintains it was shot down in Iranian airspace, whilst the US claims it was in international airspace. I think a problem here is that the Strait of Hormuz is so narrow that there is an overlap in all the different naval/air zones so it can be quite confusing because the EEZ is not the same as the airspace. Also because Iran/Oman/UAE all have airspace over the region, leaving little room for 'international airspace'.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The unit cost of a MQ-4C Triton is $180m - nearly twice that of a F-35.

Iran also maintains it was shot down in Iranian airspace, whilst the US claims it was in international airspace. I think a problem here is that the Strait of Hormuz is so narrow that there is an overlap in all the different naval/air zones so it can be quite confusing because the EEZ is not the same as the airspace. Also because Iran/Oman/UAE all have airspace over the region, leaving little room for 'international airspace'.

 

[Khafee]

Strait of Hormuz: US confirms drone shot down by Iran
46 minutes ago
20 June 2019

The US military identified the drone as a US Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk (file photo)

A US military surveillance drone has been shot down by Iranian forces while flying over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said the aircraft had violated Iranian airspace, and that the incident sent a "clear message to America".
But the US military insisted the drone had been over international waters at the time, and condemned what it called an "unprovoked attack" by the IRGC.

It comes at a time of escalating tension between the US and Iran.

On Monday, the US defence department said it was deploying 1,000 extra troops to the region in response to "hostile behaviour" by Iranian forces. It has already sent an aircraft carrier strike group and B-52 bombers.

The US has also accused Iran of attacking two oil tankers with mines last Thursday just outside the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman. Iran rejects the allegation.

It was the second time in a month tankers had been attacked close in the region, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes each day.

Tensions were further fuelled on Monday when Iran announced its stockpile of low-enriched uranium would next week exceed limits it agreed with world powers under a landmark nuclear deal in 2015.

Iran stepped up its production in response to tightening economic sanctions from the US, which unilaterally withdrew from the deal last year.

What happened on Thursday?
The IRGC said its air force had shot down a US "spy" drone in the early hours after the unmanned aircraft violated Iranian airspace near Kuhmobarak in the southern province of Hormozgan.

In a speech carried live on Iranian state television, IRGC commander-in-chief Maj-Gen Hossein Salami warned the US to respect Iran's territorial integrity.

"The downing of the American drone was a clear message to America, and the message is this: those who defend the borders of the Islamic nation of Iran will react in a total and decisive way to any intrusions by foreign elements on our land. Our borders are our red line."

He added: "Iran is not seeking war with any country, but we are fully prepared to defend Iran."

Strait of Hormuz: US confirms drone shot down by Iran

It happened over the Strait of Hormuz, amid soaring tensions between the US and Iran.

www.bbc.com

 

[Khafee]

Strait of Hormuz: US confirms drone shot down by Iran
46 minutes ago
20 June 2019


View attachment 8301
The US military identified the drone as a US Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk (file photo)

A US military surveillance drone has been shot down by Iranian forces while flying over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said the aircraft had violated Iranian airspace, and that the incident sent a "clear message to America".
But the US military insisted the drone had been over international waters at the time, and condemned what it called an "unprovoked attack" by the IRGC.

It comes at a time of escalating tension between the US and Iran.

On Monday, the US defence department said it was deploying 1,000 extra troops to the region in response to "hostile behaviour" by Iranian forces. It has already sent an aircraft carrier strike group and B-52 bombers.

The US has also accused Iran of attacking two oil tankers with mines last Thursday just outside the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman. Iran rejects the allegation.

It was the second time in a month tankers had been attacked close in the region, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes each day.

Tensions were further fuelled on Monday when Iran announced its stockpile of low-enriched uranium would next week exceed limits it agreed with world powers under a landmark nuclear deal in 2015.

Iran stepped up its production in response to tightening economic sanctions from the US, which unilaterally withdrew from the deal last year.

What happened on Thursday?
The IRGC said its air force had shot down a US "spy" drone in the early hours after the unmanned aircraft violated Iranian airspace near Kuhmobarak in the southern province of Hormozgan.

In a speech carried live on Iranian state television, IRGC commander-in-chief Maj-Gen Hossein Salami warned the US to respect Iran's territorial integrity.
View attachment 8300
"The downing of the American drone was a clear message to America, and the message is this: those who defend the borders of the Islamic nation of Iran will react in a total and decisive way to any intrusions by foreign elements on our land. Our borders are our red line."

He added: "Iran is not seeking war with any country, but we are fully prepared to defend Iran."

Strait of Hormuz: US confirms drone shot down by Iran

It happened over the Strait of Hormuz, amid soaring tensions between the US and Iran.

www.bbc.com

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran's statement on timeline of events:

"The Global Hawk spy drone took off from one of the US forces' bases South of the Persian Gulf at 00:14 am today and turned off all its Identification (Identification Friend or Foe) equipment and continued flight from the Strait of Hormuz to Chabahar port in a full stealth mode," the statement said at Thursday noon after the IRGC declared in an earlier statement that it has shot down the drone at dawn.

"The drone started collecting intel in a spying operation when it was returning towards the Western parts of the region near the Strait of Hormuz and it violated the airspace over the Islamic Republic of Iran's territory," it added.

"The IRGC Aerospace Force's air defense system targeted and destroyed the hostile aircraft which had entered Iran's territorial airspace at 04:05 am," the statement said.

FarsNews Agency - IRGC: US Stealth Drone Downed after Violating Iran's Airspace

CENTCOM statement:

“U.S. Navy Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (or BAMS-D) ISR aircraft was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile system while operating in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz at approximately 11:35 p.m. GMT on June 19, 2019:” CENTCOM spox Capt Bill Urban.

The statements match up re: times of shootdown.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Interesting comment about the contested versions of events about where the US drone was when it was shot down and the fact Iran alleges that the drone had turned off its transponders:

 

[Persian Gulf]

Latest update on what exactly was shot down, looks like it was something in between the RQ-4 and MQ-4C - an upgraded RQ-4A technology demonstrator that became the MQ-4C:


[BAMS = Broad Area Maritime Surveillance version of RQ-4 Global Hawk developed to test technologies of MQ-4C]

 

[Persian Gulf]

The RQ-4 unit cost is approx. $220m (including R&D). This was a BAMS-D version so possibly even more expensive. Even excluding R&D the unit cost of this is likely to be approx. $150m, 1.5x that of a F-35 jet (unit cost around $80-90m).


That's a high value asset for Iran to blow out of the air. I wonder how Trump will respond to this...

 

[Khafee]

First direct incident of crisis
20 June 2019

Analysis
by Jonathan Marcus
Defence Correspondent

This is the first direct incident of the current crisis involving the US and Iranian militaries and is a powerful reminder of the dangers of escalation in the Gulf.

As far as the Iranians are concerned, the downing of the drone was intended to send a clear and explicit message to the Americans - "our borders are our red line" - a point underscored by the IRGC's commander-in-chief.

So there is no doubting who shot down the US drone, an MQ-4C Triton. It is a massive aircraft with a wing-span equivalent to a small airliner. But the two sides differ as to where it happened. The Iranians say it was in their airspace; the Americans say that it was not.

According to some reports, US President Donald Trump himself is eager to dial down the tension, fearing a spillover into outright conflict. But this is just the kind of incident that could provoke just such a cycle of action and response.

Strait of Hormuz: US confirms drone shot down by Iran

It happened over the Strait of Hormuz, amid soaring tensions between the US and Iran.

www.bbc.com

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Lieutenant]

I think Iran is trying to push for a regional confrontation with the US and its allies. It seems like sanctions are hitting Iran where it hurts.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I think Iran is trying to push for a regional confrontation with the US and its allies. It seems like sanctions are hitting Iran where it hurts.

Some limited strikes would be good for the regime, people would ‘rally around the flag’ and forget about sanctions for some time.

 

[Lieutenant]

Some limited strikes would be good for the regime, people would ‘rally around the flag’ and forget about sanctions for some time.

Iran will respond by striking major oil facilities in surrounding areas making oil supplies absolute for a period of time. Not a good idea.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran will respond by striking major oil facilities in surrounding areas making oil supplies absolute for a period of time. Not a good idea.

you don’t have to worry about me being in support of such strikes!

Not only major oil fields in KSA would be easy targets but desalination plants by the Persian Gulf... I believe that was the signal Iran sent via the Houthis with their attack on the desalination plant a few days ago.

KSA has a lot to lose in any US attack against Iran, which is why I am surprised they take such a vocal hardline against Iran. They should call for de-escalation and stay out of it rather than risk being attacked as you mention