Crisis in the Arabian Gulf

[Khafee]

What is the relation between ASAT and carrier battle group (that doesn't dare enter the Persian Gulf)?

Do you know why it is not entering the Arabian Gulf?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Do you know why it is not entering the Arabian Gulf?

(because it cannot find such a gulf?)


They used to be fine to enter Persian Gulf, now they don't - so something changed in their thinking, maybe you can tell us what changed?


It's because they know they are sitting ducks and now they respect Iran's ASCM/ASBM(/etc) capability so they prefer to stay outside Persian Gulf and near north Arabian Sea instead (but Iran has ASBM capability for 700km already and possibly 1000km):

 

[Khafee]

(because it cannot find such a gulf?)


They used to be fine to enter Persian Gulf, now they don't - so something changed in their thinking, maybe you can tell us what changed?


It's because they know they are sitting ducks and now they respect Iran's ASCM/ASBM(/etc) capability so they prefer to stay outside Persian Gulf and near north Arabian Sea instead (but Iran has ASBM capability for 700km already and possibly 1000km):

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Despite CATOBAR launch capability, an aircraft carrier needs to be at 24kts~27kts to launch aircrafts. Which is easier to do from the Arabian Sea, or Gulf of Oman.

Nonetheless, as I have said before, what remains to be seen is if crazy mullah comes to the negotiating table,"before" or "after" tomahawks start flying. The current delusional world of the mullah is in for a rude awakening.

Btw any updates on mullah flights to France?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Despite CATOBAR launch capability, an aircraft carrier needs to be at 24kts~27kts to launch aircrafts. Which is easier to do from the Arabian Sea, or Gulf of Oman.

Nonetheless, as I have said before, what remains to be seen is if crazy mullah comes to the negotiating table,"before" or "after" tomahawks start flying. The current delusional world of the mullah is in for a rude awakening.

Btw any updates on mullah flights to France?

Why so angry?




[It would be good for them to return to France - the scene of the crime! But this won't happen any time soon]

 

[Khafee]

Why so angry?




[It would be good for them to return to France - the scene of the crime! But this won't happen any time soon]

Having lived in the UAE, I have met a good number of Iranians, and they are very level headed nice people, but this dumb regime, is just making everybodys life miserable.

I simply don't understand, why they cannot get along with everyone, like civilized people, and have to go gallivanting about exporting nonsense.

God for bid, if war happens, the regime will run to France or Russia, while thousands of innocent people will die. That is a crime against humanity.

For anyone to assume they can take on the only superpower of the world, is sheer delusion, but once they do, what do they aim to achieve - another Afghanistan?

This beating of the war drums, and the catastrophic results, weighs very heavily on my soul. The human cost, is something neither side is thinking about.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Having lived in the UAE, I have met a good number of Iranians, and they are very level headed nice people, but this dumb regime, is just making everybodys life miserable.

I simply don't understand, why they cannot get along with everyone, like civilized people, and have to go gallivanting about exporting nonsense.

God for bid, if war happens, the regime will run to France or Russia, while thousands of innocent people will die. That is a crime against humanity.

For anyone to assume they can take on the only superpower of the world, is sheer delusion, but once they do, what do they aim to achieve - another Afghanistan?

This beating of the war drums, and the catastrophic results, weighs very heavily on my soul. The human cost, is something neither side is thinking about.

I don't think they will run from Iran if there is a war, many of the politicians will (and indeed send their children to study abroad etc) but I don't think the military side will. War will not remove this regime, it will bring people behind it. After 1979 there were many counter-IR movements still very active in Iran but after Saddam invaded it was perfect opportunity for people to forget about it and focus on defending Iran from invasion. So if you read about it you will see this was the time that the IR really destroyed their internal enemies and nobody could say anything.

The drone matter I think is not that much of an escalation if they really warned it and it was in Iranian airspace and they didn't shoot P-8 to avoid killing anyone.

Iranians are proud people and perhaps it is not very pragmatic to not accept being a 'puppet' at all in such a world but this isn't something restricted to mollahs, even the Shah who was only in power because of US eventually was becoming more anti-US and more pro-independence. I think the same will happen with MBS. These leaders follow the path of following US until they think they are strong enough to resist the US, but in reality I don't think this moment ever comes. No single country in the ME can fully resist US, not even China can yet. Only possibility is regional co-operation and ties but that is obviously impossible for now.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Of course the huge wasted economic potential of Iran and wasted generations is very sad... But for some people this is the price of independence and many see it as caused equally by US aggression against Iran not just the regime's fault.

Sanctions in particular are destroying lives and really making people feel hopeless because they have corrupt regime repressing them at home and then corrupt US regime destroying their lives as well. There is no hope and people give up.

This is why I oppose sanctions. If you built up society you give more voice and power to middle class and different groups and these groups will slowly reform the country from inside out. But the US does not care about Iranians so it chose opposite path to harm Iranians just because they think (wrongly) this will harm the regime too...

 

[Khafee]

I don't think they will run from Iran if there is a war, many of the politicians will (and indeed send their children to study abroad etc) but I don't think the military side will. War will not remove this regime, it will bring people behind it. After 1979 there were many counter-IR movements still very active in Iran but after Saddam invaded it was perfect opportunity for people to forget about it and focus on defending Iran from invasion. So if you read about it you will see this was the time that the IR really destroyed their internal enemies and nobody could say anything.

The drone matter I think is not that much of an escalation if they really warned it and it was in Iranian airspace and they didn't shoot P-8 to avoid killing anyone.

Iranians are proud people and perhaps it is not very pragmatic to not accept being a 'puppet' at all in such a world but this isn't something restricted to mollahs, even the Shah who was only in power because of US eventually was becoming more anti-US and more pro-independence. I think the same will happen with MBS. These leaders follow the path of following US until they think they are strong enough to resist the US, but in reality I don't think this moment ever comes. No single country in the ME can fully resist US, not even China can yet. Only possibility is regional co-operation and ties but that is obviously impossible for now.

If only they would understand, that wars can be won via trade, without firing a single bullet. More regional cooperation and cohesion, can result in more independence.

 

[Persian Gulf]

If only they would understand, that wars can be won via trade, without firing a single bullet. More regional cooperation and cohesion, can result in more independence.

As long as USD dominates international trade no one can win trade war/any economic war against US. Just threat of sanctions pushed Lira off a cliff and made Erdogan eat his words about Brunson. Best anyone can hope for is to avoid trouble with US. Even Mexico agreed new NAFTA deal then next week US announces more sanctions against Mexico! US always had this power but only Trump is using it to its fullest and not caring about the consequences (which could eventually lead to erosion of US ability to use this power)

China talks tough but also is losing the trade war against US, Haewei had a big advantage but now Trump gave US some time to catch up.

I agree about regional cohesion though. After Shah/Nasser/Gaddafi/Saddam/MBS eventually I think future politicians will learn this harsh lesson.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Official information about the domestic Iranian SAM (Third of Khordad) that downed the US RQ-4 drone over Iranian airspace:

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[Persian Gulf]

If you don't defend your borders then you have nothing. Every country should have a similar policy, and of course the US definitely does.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Stolen from the Daily Show ?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Trump: “I come from New York City, we have a lot of Iranians. And they’re great people. I have friends that are Iranians. They’re very smart, they’re very ambitious and tremendous high-quality people. I don’t want to kill 150 Iranians. I don’t want to kill 150 of anything or anybody, unless it’s absolutely necessary.”

Trump: I'll be Iran's 'best friend' if it acquires no nuclear weapons

Tehran summons UAE envoy to complain over drone launch, while Trump combines dire threats with suggestion he is open to talks

www.theguardian.com

 

[Persian Gulf]

Trump: We "appreciate" that Iran didn't down manned P-8 Poseidon jet that was flying alongside the downed RQ-4.

President Trump said Saturday Iran was “very wise” not to shoot down a manned plane when it decided to down an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone.

“There was a plane with 38 people yesterday, did you see that? I think that's a big story. They had it in their sights and they didn't shoot it down. I think they were very wise not to do that. And we appreciate that they didn't do that. I think that was a very wise decision,” Trump told reporters Saturday.

Trump: Iran 'very wise' not to shoot down manned plane

President Trump said Saturday Iran was “very wise” not to shoot down a manned plane when it decided to down an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone.

thehill.com

 

[Khafee]

Trump eyes more Iran sanctions; military action still on table
June 22, 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media as he departs for Camp David from the White House in Washington, U.S., June 22, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday he will impose additional sanctions on Iran in an effort to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons, adding that military action was still a possibility.

Trump, who was speaking to reporters at the White House, made his comments after recently calling off military action against Iran to retaliate for the downing of a U.S. military drone.

“We are putting additional sanctions on Iran,” Trump said. “In some cases we are going slowly, but in other cases we are moving rapidly.”
The president said military action “is always on the table” against Iran.

But Trump also indicated he was open to reversing the escalation, adding he was willing to quickly reach a deal with Iran that he said would bolster the country’s flagging economy.
“We will call it ‘Let’s make Iran great again.’”

Trump spoke to reporters as he prepared to depart Washington for the presidential retreat Camp David, where he said he would be deliberating on Iran.

Reporting by Nandita Bose; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Daniel Wallis

Trump eyes more Iran sanctions; military action still on table

U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday he will impose additional sanctions on Iran in an effort to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons, adding that military action was still a possibility.

www.reuters.com