Su30MKI circumstantial evidence - discussion

[TsAr]

@TsAr

You wanna say something ?

 

[TsAr]

Just a reminder to India

 

[BATMAN]

the Mi17 took off from Srinagar and crashed in Budgam after 10min of flight(a possible heading towards the crash site).

I think, India has already declared various dead Su pilots in the incident.
There's no sense to why were they transporting so many fighter pilots, must be another one of their failed strategy, to say the least.

 

[BATMAN]

would still be like finding a needle in haystack when taking into account such a large area.

They must have been exploring the crash site, this is the only explanation, which also confirms a hit & crash. Pilots were seen ejecting by the locals and captured on phone video, as stated above by Khafee.

 

[BATMAN]

Just a reminder to India

Question-1, on the eventful day, who was with holding permission to shoot, while PAF staff was trying to maintain lock at hostile boogies!????
Question-2, is it standard protocol or some one in the loop was playing from both ends of the wicket!?
Question-3, if it's a standard protocol, than the AIM which was fired, were same protocols observed, which lead to denial to shoot rest of the AIM /SD-10!

 

[Cookie Monster]

I think, India has already declared various dead Su pilots in the incident.
There's no sense to why were they transporting so many fighter pilots, must be another one of their failed strategy, to say the least.

Yes...but I don't wanna declare something like they were "Su30MKI pilots"...
...I want ppl here(and myself when I get some time) to go through the names of those declared dead and pull up their record..to see if they were indeed Su30MKI pilots. The idea of this thread is to gather enough proof from publicly available sources to rest this case once and for all...for a large majority of ppl.

 

[baqai]

Let me be the devils advocate, Plot the vectors which heli was flying towards and corelate it with given positions of SU's and we will at least know if it was going towards the same direction or something else. Is there are a practice that during a skirmish SAR choppers establish an orbit and be ready for any instant action and chopper was going for that?

I believe the person who was said to be taken to CMH was Abhi, the rest is all fog of war. As far as i am concerned we have proof of 1 Mig-21 kill while for the other one the only thing we have is word of mouth, PAF's credibility and reputation and a medal given to the aircrew.

What intrigues me is why we have been keeping quiet, we were listening to their comms, we had them jammed, we were on TOP of the game as far as EW is concerned, yet we are keeping mum about it and not interested in releasing any sort of evidence for public consumption. Yes i am fully aware that all the stakeholders involved would have seen the evidence but nothing to gain momentum on social media and news front.

 

[Cookie Monster]

Let me be the devils advocate, Plot the vectors which heli was flying towards and corelate it with given positions of SU's and we will at least know if it was going towards the same direction or something else. Is there are a practice that during a skirmish SAR choppers establish an orbit and be ready for any instant action and chopper was going for that?

I believe the person who was said to be taken to CMH was Abhi, the rest is all fog of war. As far as i am concerned we have proof of 1 Mig-21 kill while for the other one the only thing we have is word of mouth, PAF's credibility and reputation and a medal given to the aircrew.

What intrigues me is why we have been keeping quiet, we were listening to their comms, we had them jammed, we were on TOP of the game as far as EW is concerned, yet we are keeping mum about it and not interested in releasing any sort of evidence for public consumption. Yes i am fully aware that all the stakeholders involved would have seen the evidence but nothing to gain momentum on social media and news front.

In my personal opinion...it wouldn't be of much use to have a heli airborne for a SAR mission...without their being an active need for SAR mission.
...any practice of such would be done during peacetime...u wouldn't want a helicopter flying around aimlessly in a hot zone where fighter jets are engaging each other.
The most practical option would be to have the helicopter fueled and readied(on the ground with the crew on standby) in the event it's needed.

As for not releasing Su30MKI info. As I see it...PAF did not keep mum and fully announced it. The pilot Hassan Siddique was publicly given an award by PAF. He himself has stood by that claim. Also PAF released a documentary about it detailing the sequence of events again saying that Su30MKI was shot down. It was also the PAF that released info such as the call sign of the Su30MKI(Avenger 1) that was shot down.
So any such rumors like PAF kept mum bcuz it was asked by the Russians and so on...I think they are baseless. PAF doesn't owe Russians any favors...last I remember they even denied Pakistan Pantsir(which is not that unique of a thing IMO and it's foolish on their part as they lost a sale since Pak will just get some other analogous system).
I think the only reason why more information is not being released about Su30MKI by PAF is bcuz that would involve releasing sensitive information like radar data, possible human intelligence sources(if any exist on the ground), and other such things...since it fell on the Indian side.
Pak didn't have to release any sensitive info in case of the Mig21...bcuz showing the wreckage and all the missiles intact was enough of a proof. This can't be done with Su30MKI...and releasing other kinds of sensitive proof is not worth the risk.
@Khafee @TsAr @Caprxl @Gripen9

 

[Khafee]

In my personal opinion...it wouldn't be of much use to have a heli airborne for a SAR mission...without their being an active need for SAR mission.
...any practice of such would be done during peacetime...u wouldn't want a helicopter flying around aimlessly in a hot zone where fighter jets are engaging each other.
The most practical option would be to have the helicopter fueled and readied(on the ground with the crew on standby) in the event it's needed.

As for not releasing Su30MKI info. As I see it...PAF did not keep mum and fully announced it. The pilot Hassan Siddique was publicly given an award by PAF. He himself has stood by that claim. Also PAF released a documentary about it detailing the sequence of events again saying that Su30MKI was shot down. It was also the PAF that released info such as the call sign of the Su30MKI(Avenger 1) that was shot down.
So any such rumors like PAF kept mum bcuz it was asked by the Russians and so on...I think they are baseless. PAF doesn't owe Russians any favors...last I remember they even denied Pakistan Pantsir(which is not that unique of a thing IMO and it's foolish on their part as they lost a sale since Pak will just get some other analogous system).
I think the only reason why more information is not being released about Su30MKI by PAF is bcuz that would involve releasing sensitive information like radar data, possible human intelligence sources(if any exist on the ground), and other such things...since it fell on the Indian side.
Pak didn't have to release any sensitive info in case of the Mig21...bcuz showing the wreckage and all the missiles intact was enough of a proof. This can't be done with Su30MKI...and releasing other kinds of sensitive proof is not worth the risk.
@Khafee @TsAr @Caprxl @Gripen9

Well said! In an active hot zone, a SAR helo would complicate matters.

There are rumors of PAF releasing more info, lets see if that happens.

Nonetheless, Non-Sub continental sources have also confirmed both kills.

 

[Gripen9]

This is purely my assumptions based on A/C Kaiser Tufail's description (I have been told that it is the closest to actual that could have been released).
Chain of event in chronological steps.
* IAF has two set of CAPs in the air over IOK. Southeastern over Udhampur 2x M2k and Northern over Srinagar flying 2x Su-30mki
* PAF arrives with 6 ship strike package that ingresses through Noushera over Rajouri area (4x Mirage III/V H4, 2x JF-17 REK), Rest 18 are 2 fighter sweeps F-16s and JF17s plus Erieye & DA-20 as EW/AEWC support.
* M2k CAP comes in to intercept and tangles with south fighter sweep JF-17s and decides to withdraw with both fighters developing radar malfunction.
* Su-30mkis come in and are welcomed with an AMRAAM longshot by S/L Hasan. His wingman retreats.
* 5 x Bisons on ADA at Srinagar are scrambled.
* Strike package's JF-17 (REK) and Mirage H-4 delivery aircraft have released their payload and made an egress, however the 2 Mirage 3 (two seaters) that are H-4 control/guidance ship are still in the area guiding the munitions.
* Bison chase the retreating control ships under heavy jamming. As the come over the mountains (diamond shapes) they are targeted and Abhinandan is shot down.
* In the melee the Mi17 sent out for SAR (Su-30 recovery) is shot down by friendly fire.

I believe based on the general vicinity of where the Indian CAPs were originally and where our strike packaged ingressed, the Su-30Mki was shot down somewhere in the high mountain range around sunset peak (diamond shapes) hence it has not been easily photographed by kashmiris (may be inaccessible to average person)

 

[Counter-Errorist]

I think the only reason why more information is not being released about Su30MKI by PAF is bcuz that would involve releasing sensitive information like radar data, possible human intelligence sources(if any exist on the ground), and other such things...since it fell on the Indian side.

Or sensitive people involved.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

...
- Su30MKI was hit...but the pilots managed to land the damaged aircraft(somewhere).
- Su30MKI was hit and destroyed. ...

In my humble opinion, we need more information about the Mi-17 mission on that day. Why was it in the air? Did it have anything to do with the Su-30 MKI that day?

If we say that the Su-30 MKI was hit but limped back to base, then I assume there wouldn't be a need for an SAR mission. However, if it crashed elsewhere then a SAR mission could be justified.

Also, do we know exactly at what time (hours/minutes) the PAF aircraft fired the missile(s) towards the Su-30 MKI?