Su30MKI circumstantial evidence - discussion | World Defense

Su30MKI circumstantial evidence - discussion

Cookie Monster

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I was reading a thread...at another forum, which is about the Feb 2019 skirmish between India/Pak. It didn't take long for trolling to begin...so I decided not to participate too much. However I did still want to discuss it...in a civilized manner without anyone getting heated...so I'll do it here...the members here may be fewer but are generally more level headed.

The thing I want to discuss is specifically the Su30MKI. All other things are already established facts. Then there is also the complex geopolitical discussion...which is too large/complex and has too many possible tangents/branches. So here let's keep it simple. I'll try to put together some information that point to one of the following.
- Su30MKI was hit...but the pilots managed to land the damaged aircraft(somewhere).
- Su30MKI was hit and destroyed.

Yes no proof exists...but the few tidbits of information that are out there...make it more likely that a Su30MKI did go down. I would encourage others to contribute to this thread with other supporting evidence.

1) IAF orders 12 Su30MKIs
"IAF to urgently procure 21 MiG 29s, 12 Su 30s"

...while having lost only 11 in accidents...losses from 2000 to Aug 2019(as per IAF).
"As of August 2019, eleven Su-30MKIs had been lost to crashes since the introduction of aircraft in 2000."

2) IAF Mi17 deployed during combat. It wasn't needed bcuz at the time it was only an air to air skirmish and not a ground offensive from either side. I can only see it making sense in case of a ground offensive...whether to deploy troops somewhere quickly or to supply them...
...the only way it makes sense in this context is for SAR. There were six personnel onboard all of whom were killed by friendly fire from Spyder SAM. Mi17 can carry much more than six troops...
...not sure if it crashed before or after having completed its SAR mission but if Indian account is to be believed...it crashed 10min after take off from Srinagar...which I don't think is enough time for it to have found the injured or dead pilots and be airborne again heading to base.

3) The very short time within which India found wreckage of an AMRAAM. The region is not as densely populated as other regions of India. It is a difficult terrain in general...and has vast areas covered in trees. A missile the size of an AMRAAM while quite large compared to human scale...would still be like finding a needle in haystack when taking into account such a large area.

4) Initial reports coming from India that IAF Su30MKI was shot down...which were later not reported anywhere(suppressed?)
and this below...a subjective account of locals.

As for the pilots...
- The pilots ejected but later succumbed to their injuries
- The pilots couldn't eject in time and died in the crash.

Six personnel died aboard the Mi17
4 were claimed to have been involved in a car accident shortly after the skirmish. 2 of which died while 2 were injured.

If someone can dig in to the names of these personnel and find out if any of them were Su30 pilots...that would be immensely helpful.
Secondly if someone can analyze the possible crash sites and identify the most probable crash site based on these circumstantial evidences/accounts...that would also help.
Like for example...the Mi17 took off from Srinagar and crashed in Budgam after 10min of flight(a possible heading towards the crash site). There are locals mentioning some areas in that video above...and any and all such examples can/should be used to identify possible crash sites.

@Khafee @Gripen9 @Mingle @AliYusuf @aliraza @War Historian @TsAr @capricorn5192 @Caprxl @BATMAN
Tag others and plz stick to topic. It is okay to disagree...just don't troll.
 
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Gripen9

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I was reading a thread...at another forum, which is about the Feb 2019 skirmish between India/Pak. It didn't take long for trolling to begin...so I decided not to participate too much. However I did still want to discuss it...in a civilized manner without anyone getting heated...so I'll do it here...the members here may be fewer but are generally more level headed.

The thing I want to discuss is specifically the Su30MKI. All other things are already established facts. Then there is also the complex geopolitical discussion...which is too large/complex and has too many possible tangents/branches. So here let's keep it simple. I'll try to put together some information that point to one of the following.
- Su30MKI was hit...but the pilots managed to land the damaged aircraft(somewhere).
- Su30MKI was hit and destroyed.

Yes no proof exists...but the few tidbits of information that are out there...make it more likely that a Su30MKI did go down. I would encourage others to contribute to this thread with other supporting evidence.

1) IAF orders 12 Su30MKIs
"IAF to urgently procure 21 MiG 29s, 12 Su 30s"

...while having lost only 11 in accidents...losses from 2000 to Aug 2019(as per IAF).
"As of August 2019, eleven Su-30MKIs had been lost to crashes since the introduction of aircraft in 2000."

2) IAF Mi17 deployed during combat. It wasn't needed bcuz at the time it was only an air to air skirmish and not a ground offensive from either side. I can only see it making sense in case of a ground offensive...whether to deploy troops somewhere quickly or to supply them...
...the only way it makes sense in this context is for SAR. There were six personnel onboard all of whom were killed by friendly fire from Spyder SAM. Mi17 can carry much more than six troops...
...not sure if it crashed before or after having completed its SAR mission but if Indian account is to be believed...it crashed 10min after take off from Srinagar...which I don't think is enough time for it to have found the injured or dead pilots and be airborne again heading to base.

3) The very short time within which India found wreckage of an AMRAAM. The region is not as densely populated as other regions of India. It is a difficult terrain in general...and has vast areas covered in trees. A missile the size of an AMRAAM while quite large compared to human scale...would still be like finding a needle in haystack when taking into account such a large area.

4) Initial reports coming from India that IAF Su30MKI was shot down...which were later not reported anywhere(suppressed?)
and this below...a subjective account of locals.

As for the pilots...
- The pilots ejected but later succumbed to their injuries
- The pilots couldn't eject in time and died in the crash.

Six personnel died aboard the Mi17
4 were claimed to have been involved in a car accident shortly after the skirmish. 2 of which died while 2 were injured.

If someone can dig in to the names of these personnel and find out if any of them were Su30 pilots...that would be immensely helpful.
Secondly if someone can analyze the possible crash sites and identify the most probable crash site based on these circumstantial evidences/accounts...that would also help.
Like for example...the Mi17 took off from Srinagar and crashed in Budgam after 10min of flight(a possible heading towards the crash site). There are locals mentioning some areas in that video above...and any and all such examples can/should be used to identify possible crash sites.

@Khafee @Gripen9 @Mingle @AliYusuf @aliraza @War Historian @TsAr @capricorn5192 @Caprxl @BATMAN
Tag others and plz stick to topic. It is okay to disagree...just don't troll.
The Mi17 was definitely sent for SAR. Why would you launch a supply mission in the middle of an air battle.
 

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I still maintain a lot of this should have been released earlier. The bombing footage, and the crash site coordinates. It would have dulled their ongoing propaganda about the f16 being downed and the periodic dramas on handing over newly minted vir chakras.
 

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Can someone post the link of the initial ISPR press release, where a pilot had been transferred to CMH due to injuries. This was later retracted.
 

Cookie Monster

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Apparently people have the exact coordinates. A certain lady poster on the other forum alluded to it.
DBC? Or Messiach?
IIRC DBC(TTA I think) said that as per rumors from certain circles...Su30MKI landed badly damaged.

Also the goal here is not to rely on any sensitive information(bcuz it shouldn't be leaked just for the sake of our satisfaction). The goal is to use what is available to us in the open domain...and see how well it backs up the claim that PAF made. IMO there exists enough circumstantial evidence that confirm the Su30MKI shoot down. I just wanted to see if members here could dig up more in addition to what's already gathered above.
 
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Khafee

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DBC? Or Messiach?
IIRC DBC(TTA I think) said that as per rumors from certain circles...Su30MKI landed badly damaged.
There was actually a video on twitter of the Su-30 going down and two pilots ejecting.
 

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I am pretty dam sure that a SU30 was shot down. From the horses mouth I heard about a second pilot being captured in an injured condition. There is no other reason that the Russian Ambassador was the first person to rush to GHQ.
 

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The other evidence is that the SU blip went missing exactly at the time the AMRAAM bumped into its ass. There are only 2 possibilities here, either the Indians had EW cover and SU signature on PAF radars went missing (which we all know is not true, even there comm's were hacked that day) or a SU really went down.
 

Gripen9

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DBC? Or Messiach?
IIRC DBC(TTA I think) said that as per rumors from certain circles...Su30MKI landed badly damaged.

Also the goal here is not to rely on any sensitive information(bcuz it shouldn't be leaked just for the sake of our satisfaction). The goal is to use what is available to us in the open domain...and see how well it backs up the claim that PAF made. IMO there exists enough circumstantial evidence that confirm the Su30MKI shoot down. I just wanted to see if members here could dig up more in addition to what's already gathered above.

Messiach
 

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I was reading a thread...at another forum, which is about the Feb 2019 skirmish between India/Pak. It didn't take long for trolling to begin...so I decided not to participate too much. However I did still want to discuss it...in a civilized manner without anyone getting heated...so I'll do it here...the members here may be fewer but are generally more level headed.

The thing I want to discuss is specifically the Su30MKI. All other things are already established facts. Then there is also the complex geopolitical discussion...which is too large/complex and has too many possible tangents/branches. So here let's keep it simple. I'll try to put together some information that point to one of the following.
- Su30MKI was hit...but the pilots managed to land the damaged aircraft(somewhere).
- Su30MKI was hit and destroyed.

Yes no proof exists...but the few tidbits of information that are out there...make it more likely that a Su30MKI did go down. I would encourage others to contribute to this thread with other supporting evidence.

1) IAF orders 12 Su30MKIs
"IAF to urgently procure 21 MiG 29s, 12 Su 30s"

...while having lost only 11 in accidents...losses from 2000 to Aug 2019(as per IAF).
"As of August 2019, eleven Su-30MKIs had been lost to crashes since the introduction of aircraft in 2000."

2) IAF Mi17 deployed during combat. It wasn't needed bcuz at the time it was only an air to air skirmish and not a ground offensive from either side. I can only see it making sense in case of a ground offensive...whether to deploy troops somewhere quickly or to supply them...
...the only way it makes sense in this context is for SAR. There were six personnel onboard all of whom were killed by friendly fire from Spyder SAM. Mi17 can carry much more than six troops...
...not sure if it crashed before or after having completed its SAR mission but if Indian account is to be believed...it crashed 10min after take off from Srinagar...which I don't think is enough time for it to have found the injured or dead pilots and be airborne again heading to base.

3) The very short time within which India found wreckage of an AMRAAM. The region is not as densely populated as other regions of India. It is a difficult terrain in general...and has vast areas covered in trees. A missile the size of an AMRAAM while quite large compared to human scale...would still be like finding a needle in haystack when taking into account such a large area.

4) Initial reports coming from India that IAF Su30MKI was shot down...which were later not reported anywhere(suppressed?)
and this below...a subjective account of locals.

As for the pilots...
- The pilots ejected but later succumbed to their injuries
- The pilots couldn't eject in time and died in the crash.

Six personnel died aboard the Mi17
4 were claimed to have been involved in a car accident shortly after the skirmish. 2 of which died while 2 were injured.

If someone can dig in to the names of these personnel and find out if any of them were Su30 pilots...that would be immensely helpful.
Secondly if someone can analyze the possible crash sites and identify the most probable crash site based on these circumstantial evidences/accounts...that would also help.
Like for example...the Mi17 took off from Srinagar and crashed in Budgam after 10min of flight(a possible heading towards the crash site). There are locals mentioning some areas in that video above...and any and all such examples can/should be used to identify possible crash sites.

@Khafee @Gripen9 @Mingle @AliYusuf @aliraza @War Historian @TsAr @capricorn5192 @Caprxl @BATMAN
Tag others and plz stick to topic. It is okay to disagree...just don't troll.
Sir , i have only one question in my mind about all this scenario. Earlier ISPR told media about the second pilot, who was badly injured. Later they never talk about that pilot, so it means some one has asked them to never talk about SU 30 mki. And most probably second pilot died at CMH, so Pakistan handed over dead body of the pilot to india silently. Because both govts were in try to calm down the situation. Otherwise PAF has much more proves in their pocket. But they deliberately ignore the matter. Debris of Su 30 mki was fallen on the other side of LOC.but pilots were here, who ejected just after the hit of AMRAAM. PAF had already given the message to IAF, so they close the topic.and international powers don't want to highlight PAF as a top air force to shoot down Su 30. On other hand ISPR was also not in a mood of power projection.Saudi Arabia , UAE played their roles to calm down the situation.
I think these are the reasons, why we never seen any proof of Su30 sent to hell.
 
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