Cookie Monster
THINK TANK
I was reading a thread...at another forum, which is about the Feb 2019 skirmish between India/Pak. It didn't take long for trolling to begin...so I decided not to participate too much. However I did still want to discuss it...in a civilized manner without anyone getting heated...so I'll do it here...the members here may be fewer but are generally more level headed.
The thing I want to discuss is specifically the Su30MKI. All other things are already established facts. Then there is also the complex geopolitical discussion...which is too large/complex and has too many possible tangents/branches. So here let's keep it simple. I'll try to put together some information that point to one of the following.
- Su30MKI was hit...but the pilots managed to land the damaged aircraft(somewhere).
- Su30MKI was hit and destroyed.
Yes no proof exists...but the few tidbits of information that are out there...make it more likely that a Su30MKI did go down. I would encourage others to contribute to this thread with other supporting evidence.
1) IAF orders 12 Su30MKIs
"IAF to urgently procure 21 MiG 29s, 12 Su 30s"
...while having lost only 11 in accidents...losses from 2000 to Aug 2019(as per IAF).
"As of August 2019, eleven Su-30MKIs had been lost to crashes since the introduction of aircraft in 2000."
2) IAF Mi17 deployed during combat. It wasn't needed bcuz at the time it was only an air to air skirmish and not a ground offensive from either side. I can only see it making sense in case of a ground offensive...whether to deploy troops somewhere quickly or to supply them...
...the only way it makes sense in this context is for SAR. There were six personnel onboard all of whom were killed by friendly fire from Spyder SAM. Mi17 can carry much more than six troops...
...not sure if it crashed before or after having completed its SAR mission but if Indian account is to be believed...it crashed 10min after take off from Srinagar...which I don't think is enough time for it to have found the injured or dead pilots and be airborne again heading to base.
3) The very short time within which India found wreckage of an AMRAAM. The region is not as densely populated as other regions of India. It is a difficult terrain in general...and has vast areas covered in trees. A missile the size of an AMRAAM while quite large compared to human scale...would still be like finding a needle in haystack when taking into account such a large area.
4) Initial reports coming from India that IAF Su30MKI was shot down...which were later not reported anywhere(suppressed?)
and this below...a subjective account of locals.
As for the pilots...
- The pilots ejected but later succumbed to their injuries
- The pilots couldn't eject in time and died in the crash.
Six personnel died aboard the Mi17
4 were claimed to have been involved in a car accident shortly after the skirmish. 2 of which died while 2 were injured.
If someone can dig in to the names of these personnel and find out if any of them were Su30 pilots...that would be immensely helpful.
Secondly if someone can analyze the possible crash sites and identify the most probable crash site based on these circumstantial evidences/accounts...that would also help.
Like for example...the Mi17 took off from Srinagar and crashed in Budgam after 10min of flight(a possible heading towards the crash site). There are locals mentioning some areas in that video above...and any and all such examples can/should be used to identify possible crash sites.
@Khafee @Gripen9 @Mingle @AliYusuf @aliraza @War Historian @TsAr @capricorn5192 @Caprxl @BATMAN
Tag others and plz stick to topic. It is okay to disagree...just don't troll.
The thing I want to discuss is specifically the Su30MKI. All other things are already established facts. Then there is also the complex geopolitical discussion...which is too large/complex and has too many possible tangents/branches. So here let's keep it simple. I'll try to put together some information that point to one of the following.
- Su30MKI was hit...but the pilots managed to land the damaged aircraft(somewhere).
- Su30MKI was hit and destroyed.
Yes no proof exists...but the few tidbits of information that are out there...make it more likely that a Su30MKI did go down. I would encourage others to contribute to this thread with other supporting evidence.
1) IAF orders 12 Su30MKIs
"IAF to urgently procure 21 MiG 29s, 12 Su 30s"
...while having lost only 11 in accidents...losses from 2000 to Aug 2019(as per IAF).
"As of August 2019, eleven Su-30MKIs had been lost to crashes since the introduction of aircraft in 2000."
2) IAF Mi17 deployed during combat. It wasn't needed bcuz at the time it was only an air to air skirmish and not a ground offensive from either side. I can only see it making sense in case of a ground offensive...whether to deploy troops somewhere quickly or to supply them...
...the only way it makes sense in this context is for SAR. There were six personnel onboard all of whom were killed by friendly fire from Spyder SAM. Mi17 can carry much more than six troops...
...not sure if it crashed before or after having completed its SAR mission but if Indian account is to be believed...it crashed 10min after take off from Srinagar...which I don't think is enough time for it to have found the injured or dead pilots and be airborne again heading to base.
3) The very short time within which India found wreckage of an AMRAAM. The region is not as densely populated as other regions of India. It is a difficult terrain in general...and has vast areas covered in trees. A missile the size of an AMRAAM while quite large compared to human scale...would still be like finding a needle in haystack when taking into account such a large area.
4) Initial reports coming from India that IAF Su30MKI was shot down...which were later not reported anywhere(suppressed?)
and this below...a subjective account of locals.
As for the pilots...
- The pilots ejected but later succumbed to their injuries
- The pilots couldn't eject in time and died in the crash.
Six personnel died aboard the Mi17
4 were claimed to have been involved in a car accident shortly after the skirmish. 2 of which died while 2 were injured.
If someone can dig in to the names of these personnel and find out if any of them were Su30 pilots...that would be immensely helpful.
Secondly if someone can analyze the possible crash sites and identify the most probable crash site based on these circumstantial evidences/accounts...that would also help.
Like for example...the Mi17 took off from Srinagar and crashed in Budgam after 10min of flight(a possible heading towards the crash site). There are locals mentioning some areas in that video above...and any and all such examples can/should be used to identify possible crash sites.
@Khafee @Gripen9 @Mingle @AliYusuf @aliraza @War Historian @TsAr @capricorn5192 @Caprxl @BATMAN
Tag others and plz stick to topic. It is okay to disagree...just don't troll.
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