Syrian Revolution News & Discussions

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[Falcon29]

Mark ‏@markito0171 2h2 hours ago
#KSA foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir announce to supply moderate rebels in #Syria with manpads (portable ground-to-air missiles)

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[Falcon29]

Situation in northern Aleppo:

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Green= Syrian opposition
Black= ISIS
Yellow= Kurds
Red= SAA

 

[Gabriel92]

Situation in northern Aleppo:

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Green= Syrian opposition
Black= ISIS
Yellow= Kurds
Red= SAA

I really want to know your Pov,what do you think will happen to the opposition ? To ISIS ? Will Bashar win this war ? Is there will be an outside intervention to avoid that ?

 

[Falcon29]

I really want to know your Pov,what do you think will happen to the opposition ? To ISIS ? Will Bashar win this war ? Is there will be an outside intervention to avoid that ?

The opposition is still strong enough to put on a fight. I categorize the opposition in 3 different ways:

1.) Small local opposition factions that's main focus is to keep local town/city secure and overall agenda is less about regime change or bigger goals

2.) Medium sized 'moderate' opposition factions that seek regime change but at slower scale and trying to receive Western/local support

3.) Hardline medium sized opposition groups that have main goals of regime change but also forming Islamic state. These groups like ISIS, Nusra, Jund Al Aqsa, Ahrar Al Sham aren't united currently. However the recent battle(which I posted photo of) it seems as if they are coordinating. Depending on the regime's progress and outcome of upcoming ceasefire, those factors will determine the overall direction of these groups. If it all goes wrong, they may lose it and unite/cooperate irregardless of international backlash.

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ISIS itself will remain as it is in Syria, slowly getting weaker but no serious escalation against it from all parties. This is because ISIS is a beneficial tool to world powers in the sense it enables to legally conduct military activity and legally deploy military resources in Syria. This way, they can claim eastern Syria to themselves in case the regime tries to retrieve it on its own. And that's when you will see any ground intervention, unless world powers don't see worth in it.

The regime and pro-regime forces interpret victory as defeat of the all opposition parties with exception to ISIS. If they can defeat the people in the green, this will leave ISIS left in the east. Will give them a much better standing and enable them to frame the conflict as one of state vs. terrorism. Defeating the opposition in Aleppo/Idlib will not be easy and still may require a year or two if we assume Russian air support will be provided throughout this period. If that succeeds, local sponsor states of rebels will panic but I don't believe they'll intervene. You will see escalations elsewhere in the region or direct threats in the political arena.

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Overall, the opposition lacks a unified voice and that's not good because time is not on their hands right now.

 

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[Falcon29]

Footage of Kurd-ISIS clashes with US air support, US A10 can be heard firing the cannons(guns):

 

[Falcon29]

@Scorpion

Read the posts on this pro-regime page, it got hacked, go to the post 7 hours ago it's hilarious

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