Syrian Revolution News & Discussions

[sarvar_preus]

I doubt there will be any resistance from Assad and his thugs including Russia. What do you say?

let me answer your question with a history lesson.
the year is 1940. after years of war in China. the empire of japan has decided it needed to invade the colony of Indo-China in order to gain rice and timber for its economy.
they walked over the defeated french within weeks. however there is an issue. the USA has condemned this invasion and has frozen Japanese warbonds and stopped the sales of scrap metal and oil to Japan. the economy and japan's war effort depended on these resources.

Japan was then left with two options. fight and have a small possibility of victory (as small as it was considering the USA was much stronger then japan) or do nothing and rot away.





Russia is in a similar corner to japan in 1941. never underestimate the will of a autocrat or a nation to fight if they are cornered.
otherwise you will get hit when you least expect it. (Russia's economy has been damaged by sanctions, the turks already poked them by shooting down that SU-24 last year, Putin has done more for Syria now then he ever did for Iraq back in 2003.)
Assad is Russia's last ally in the near east. he wont let it go so easily anymore then Ukraine or Crimea. although Iran is not really a Russian ally per say they also need to keep Syria in their corner. the risk of a full blown nuclear conflict is real (even more than during the October war)

 

[Scorpion]

let me answer your question with a history lesson.
the year is 1940. after years of war in China. the empire of japan has decided it needed to invade the colony of Indo-China in order to gain rice and timber for its economy.
they walked over the defeated french within weeks. however there is an issue. the USA has condemned this invasion and has frozen Japanese warbonds and stopped the sales of scrap metal and oil to Japan. the economy and japan's war effort depended on these resources.

Japan was then left with two options. fight and have a small possibility of victory (as small as it was considering the USA was much stronger then japan) or do nothing and rot away.





Russia is in a similar corner to japan in 1941. never underestimate the will of a autocrat or a nation to fight if they are cornered.
otherwise you will get hit when you least expect it. (Russia's economy has been damaged by sanctions, the turks already poked them by shooting down that SU-24 last year, Putin has done more for Syria now then he ever did for Iraq back in 2003.)
Assad is Russia's last ally in the near east. he wont let it go so easily anymore then Ukraine or Crimea. although Iran is not really a Russian ally per say they also need to keep Syria in their corner. the risk of a full blown nuclear conflict is real (even more than during the October war)

You got a point there but I don't that apply to the GCC+Turkey. I mean in terms of economy Russia is no where compare to GCC+Turkey. GCC has trillions of dollars in reserve plus the oil while Japan lacked both. I don't think Iran is going to move an inch considering the Saudi Pakistani historical alliance. Russia doesn't have a nuclear launching platform nearby nor its going to do it for the sake of Assad. If Russia thought a second of nuking the region then it would have signed its death certificate. The U.S and NATO might jump the gun to weaken Russia their sole enemy. I believe Turkey and GCC can set a foot inside Syria under the pretext of fighting ISIS just like how Russia justified its interference in Syria. Turkey borders Syria and Syrian territories by the Turkish borders is either under Kurdish control or the rebels control. Another option is to provide surface to air missile against the Russian jet and closely march towards Russia military base inside Syria and bombs it from inside out. There are many scenarios we can think of to end this madness.

 

[sarvar_preus]

You got a point there but I don't that apply to the GCC+Turkey. I mean in terms of economy Russia is no where compare to GCC+Turkey. GCC has trillions of dollars in reserve plus the oil while Japan lacked both. I don't think Iran is going to move an inch considering the Saudi Pakistani historical alliance. Russia doesn't have a nuclear launching platform nearby nor its going to do it for the sake of Assad. If Russia thought a second of nuking the region then it would have signed its death certificate. The U.S and NATO might jump the gun to weaken Russia their sole enemy. I believe Turkey and GCC can set a foot inside Syria under the pretext of fighting ISIS just like how Russia justified its interference in Syria. Turkey borders Syria and Syrian territories by the Turkish borders is either under Kurdish control or the rebels control. Another option is to provide surface to air missile against the Russian jet and closely march towards Russia military base inside Syria and bombs it from inside out. There are many scenarios we can think of to end this madness.

On the point of economics the GCC and Turkey combined overcome the RF however Pakistan has been very... shifty lately as far as relations go. remember that unlike the other Saudi allies, Pakistan has refused to help in the Yemen conflict. likewise the Pakistanis are nervous about Iran potentially supporting India against them. (the Pakistanis are in a way trying to do a "charm offensive" in Tehran while trying to keep away from pro-Saudi military commitments rather then trying to be a "solid supporter"). NATO is only powerful with U.S backing and now the U.S has Donald Trump (a Russian friendly new York Yankee) coming to the white house. this could very well make the US change full course in the ME and if it does the balance of power will be thrown completely out of wack. Japan didn't have oil reserves but they were (and still are) an economic powerhouse and undoubtedly a great power in the 40s (remember the Japanese were so feared the US refused war until pearl harbor).
Russia can strike in the ME, remember they have intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Turkey is already in Syria but so far it hasn't been a walk in the park. they are already losing Armour to terrorists and they may have to stretch themselves too thin.

There are a lot of things that can happen but it can go either way.. It won't be a war in which "people will return before the leaves falls" it will be a long, ugly, nasty conflict.

 

[T-123456]

Why doesn't turkey with the back of its allies in the region e.g. GCC create a buffer zone inside Syria?

A safezone you say?
Did you hear about Operation Euphrates Shield?
Take a look at this,

All of the green parts from the Turkish border down to al-Bab was captured by the FSA with help from the Turkish Army.
Do we see any help from the GCC?
Where is the GCC?

 

[sarvar_preus]

This is a good question from T-123456. the Turks have invaded and took multiple territories from ISIS control, however the GCC is not sending its military forces to aid the Turkish army. I personally think it is because too much of their forces are focused on Yemen & the gulf.

 

[Falcon29]

Really,you dont know?
What about Iranian militias and Hezbollah fighters?

Iran is not contributing much men. It is playing management role in some areas, providing financial, humanitarian and material support in form of weaponry which it believes is best value. Like those so called 'volcano' rockets we see, and some smaller upgrades here and there. Hezbollah is providing a solid several thousand men, this is not enough to recover large provinces in Syria. When I'm referring to man power, I mean significant numbers of determined men that can go on offensive. There is sufficient man power for sole offensives only, leaving them weakened in other areas. The belief that current resources are sufficient, may be true, but has to be spread across a long timetable.

 

[Falcon29]

This is a good question from T-123456. the Turks have invaded and took multiple territories from ISIS control, however the GCC is not sending its military forces to aid the Turkish army. I personally think it is because too much of their forces are focused on Yemen & the gulf.

Not so, Syria is higher risk than Yemen, a lot more so. GCC also cannot build trust within the opposition. The opposition is not ready nor capable to hold half of Syria let alone whole of it. They can't secure it from hardline parties, not just ISIS, others as well, and it will have bad implications for neighboring states, some of whom GCC allies. Even if they can secure it, it will be a center of political/ideological innovation for the youth that will challenge the order in the region. My theory can be supported by simply observing social cues, Syria is seen as a holy place where the Prophet of Islam(PBUH) suggested would hold importance in the end times.

I don't like citing religious scripture, I'm just telling the reality that many people in Arab world have accepted this view, and most see Syria as a point of change or something on the horizon that will be major. The actual religious scripture cited the Levant and Yemen, among other things. It is vague scripture, however, of course people drew correlation to modern day events. And this is why Syria's opposition is mainly Islamist and among the people, it's seen as a religious place.

The clerics had a role in forming that view too. It's difficult at this point to get organized majority of opposition to form an agenda solely around a future state of Syria with a sole non-pan Islamist purpose. This is why there is hesitancy among not only GCC, but Turkey and others.

 

[T-123456]

Iran is not contributing much men. It is playing management role in some areas, providing financial, humanitarian and material support in form of weaponry which it believes is best value. Like those so called 'volcano' rockets we see, and some smaller upgrades here and there. Hezbollah is providing a solid several thousand men, this is not enough to recover large provinces in Syria. When I'm referring to man power, I mean significant numbers of determined men that can go on offensive. There is sufficient man power for sole offensives only, leaving them weakened in other areas. The belief that current resources are sufficient, may be true, but has to be spread across a long timetable.

Dream on,Iran is there with soldiers in the form of Shia militias,where are you,cant spare a few Thousand soldiers(5000 should be enough)?

 

[T-123456]

I don't like citing religious scripture, I'm just telling the reality that many people in Arab world have accepted this view, and most see Syria as a point of change or something on the horizon that will be major. The actual religious scripture cited the Levant and Yemen, among other things. It is vague scripture, however, of course people drew correlation to modern day events. And this is why Syria's opposition is mainly Islamist and among the people, it's seen as a religious place.

The clerics had a role in forming that view too. It's difficult at this point to get organized majority of opposition to form an agenda solely around a future state of Syria with a sole non-pan Islamist purpose. This is why there is hesitancy among not only GCC, but Turkey and others.

Those are just excuses,the Arab world doesnt care for Syrians,its time to admit it.

 

[Falcon29]

Those are just excuses,the Arab world doesnt care for Syrians,its time to admit it.

Nobody cares about anybody but themselves, even that bond gets broken through civil wars. I've been very explicit in frustrations with the Arab world on many arenas, not just about Syria. Anyway I'm not interested in seeing things through political lenses anymore, everyone is using the other, it's a disgusting cycle which has lowered my drive for politics.

I'm waiting for the people of the region to hear themselves out, and clarify their demands. Right now, I can tell not everyone is on the same page and there are ill intentions still, too many.

I'd also liked to be asked about my perspective and not be tailored into parroting a perspective of any certain camp in the region. That requires neutral narratives.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

 

[Scorpion]

Nobody cares about anybody but themselves, even that bond gets broken through civil wars. I've been very explicit in frustrations with the Arab world on many arenas, not just about Syria. Anyway I'm not interested in seeing things through political lenses anymore, everyone is using the other, it's a disgusting cycle which has lowered my drive for politics.

I'm waiting for the people of the region to hear themselves out, and clarify their demands. Right now, I can tell not everyone is on the same page and there are ill intentions still, too many.

I'd also liked to be asked about my perspective and not be tailored into parroting a perspective of any certain camp in the region. That requires neutral narratives.

I will take a neutral stand once I lose my moral. Its very plain, a vampire slaughtering innocents with the help of other vampires and If we don't stop this madness using military and economic means then one day we will be a victim ourselves.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

 

[BLACKEAGLE]