Afghanistan current affairs, news, discussion and update | Page 15 | World Defense

Afghanistan current affairs, news, discussion and update

TsAr

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Afghanistan war: Army chief replaced as Taliban seize more cities


Afghanistan has replaced its army chief, as Taliban militants continue to make rapid advances.
The insurgents have now taken control of nine of the 34 provincial capitals.
In their latest offensive, sources told the BBC that the Taliban had entered the centre of the city of Ghazni, where heavy fighting has erupted.
President Ashraf Ghani earlier flew to the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif - traditionally an anti-Taliban bastion - to try to rally pro-government forces.
The removal of the country's army chief, General Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai, was confirmed to the BBC on Wednesday. He had only been in the post since June.
 

AliYusuf

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Description: For nearly two decades, the government of Afghanistan – with the help of U.S. and coalition forces – battled for control of the country against the ever-present Afghan Taliban. FDD’s Long War Journal has tracked the Taliban’s attempts to gain control of territory since NATO ended its military mission in Afghanistan and switched to an “advise and assist” role in June 2014. Districts have been taken and retaken (by both sides), only to be lost shortly thereafter, decreasing the security situation. Since the U.S. drawdown of peak forces in 2011, the Taliban has unquestionably been resurgent.

Read the link, good animated maps showing Taliban progress.
 

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China Preparing to Recognize Taliban if Kabul Falls: Sources​


The move comes at the expense of the U.S., which has held up the Taliban’s international legitimacy as its remaining source of leverage while the militant group storms across Afghanistan.

China is prepared to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan if it succeeds in toppling the Western-backed government in Kabul, U.S. News has learned, a prospect that undercuts the Biden administration's remaining source of leverage over the insurgent network as it continues its startling campaign to regain control.

Beijing has publicly pressured the Taliban to continue working toward a peace agreement with President Ashraf Ghani's government – an outcome China appears to genuinely prefer and one the U.S. has pressed with growing urgency. However, new Chinese military and intelligence assessments of the realities on the ground in Afghanistan have prompted leaders in the Chinese Communist Party to prepare to formalize their relationship with the insurgent network, according to multiple U.S. and foreign intelligence sources familiar with the Chinese assessments.

The move comes as the Taliban has been routing Afghan forces – as of Thursday afternoon it had overrun 10 major provincial capitals, including one near Kabul, sometimes uncontested, along with key territory that connects with China's border. And it also undermines U.S. attempts to try to pressure the insurgent group to return in good faith to diplomatic negotiations in Doha, Qatar, where America's envoy returned this week for new talks.

"If the Taliban claim to want international legitimacy, these actions are not going to get them the legitimacy they seek," White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Friday. "They could choose to devote the same energy to their peace process as they are to their military campaign. We strongly urge them to do so."

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment.

At stake for Beijing are agreements it has already secured from the Taliban not to harbor inside Afghanistan any Islamic extremists with designs to wage insurgencies in parts of western China, notably the restive Xinjiang province – a promise that far exceeds anything the U.S. has been able to extract with regard to the persistent threats of al-Qaida operatives partnered with the Taliban.

Any sort of stability in Afghanistan would also allow China to reap the benefits of prior economic investments in the region, including mineral rights in Afghanistan. Buried in the latest report from the U.S. inspector general overseeing reconstruction in Afghanistan was a little-noticed observation that China has dramatically increased its economic interests in Afghanistan recently, encouraging the completion of a road in the Wakhan Corridor – the sliver of land connecting the two countries. It cited an Afghan Public Works Ministry spokesperson who said, "China has expressed a huge interest for investment in Afghanistan, particularly in the mining sector, and this road will be good for that, too." The Taliban recently seized wide swaths of that territory as part of an apparent campaign to control Afghanistan's northern border crossings.

China also seeks stability in Afghanistan for the sake of regional infrastructure projects it's already pursuing in neighboring Pakistan as a part of similar investments globally known as the Belt and Road Initiative.

Indeed, Pakistan appears at the center of the growing relationship between China and the Taliban, with Beijing relying on it for interpreting the cultural and linguistic divide. Pakistan in turn has come under increased Chinese influence through the growing number of economic investments Beijing has funded there, notably the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC that flows through regions in the north where Taliban networks have sought refuge – apparently with at least some complicity from Pakistan's influential military.

U.S. News first reported a new intelligence sharing arrangement between the two Asian countries last year.

Pakistan's contributions to the instability in America's longest war zone are not lost on the Afghans, nor on those who follow the conflict closely. A seemingly benign tweet from the U.S. Embassy in Kabul soliciting suggestions for the agenda at the new Doha talks wrought near-unanimous replies and a trending hashtag: #SanctionPakistan

The fall of Kabul is not guaranteed, as American officials continue to insist. And in a call two weeks before the high-profile summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured Ghani of "China's firm support of the Afghan government." But the Taliban's onslaught has privately surprised the Biden administration with its speed and apparent success, officials familiar with internal deliberations say.

The Defense Department restarted in recent days a bombing campaign against Taliban positions in support of the pro-government ground forces, though Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday the authority to do so expires with the planned full withdrawal of U.S. forces by the end of the month. And on Tuesday, President Joe Biden showed no signs of a willingness to reverse his decision for a full withdrawal.

"I think they're beginning to realize they've got to come together politically at the top," Biden told reporters at the White House, referring to the U.S.-backed government in Kabul. "We're going to continue to keep our commitment. But I do not regret my decision."

With this deadline in sight, China has begun preparing for what it considers more realistic contingencies that would grant both Beijing and the Taliban what they seek in the near future. It's a prospect met with little surprise from those who study the region closely.

"If you suspect there's a good possibility that a new government is coming to power, it's potentially useful to set conditions such that if those folks succeed in taking power, you're well positioned to extract a bargaining concession from them," says Tyler Jost, a professor at Brown University who studies Chinese national security decision-making. "In this case, any potential connections between Islamist groups and Xinjiang would likely be front and center in the minds of Chinese decision-makers. It's such a central priority for them."
Chinese Communist Party officials have held increasingly frequent and visible engagements with Taliban leaders – including a high-profile summit two weeks ago in the northeastern coastal city of Tianjin – in which they ostensibly touted the need for them to participate in the U.S.-backed peace process in Doha.

It's unclear whether this or other Chinese delegations have communicated their intentions explicitly to the Taliban, though the insurgent network's brazenness in recent weeks suggests it sees the American threats of international isolation as inconsequential.

It also remains to be seen whether the Taliban will follow through on their promises to deny safe haven to foreign fighters after spending two decades refusing American demands for similar concessions about al-Qaida. China, however, is not saddling the Taliban with the lofty bureaucratic expectations the U.S. and its Western partners have for Afghanistan's future.

"Beijing doesn't necessarily place the same emphasis on factors the U.S. sees as central to the future of Afghanistan, such as sustaining democratic elections or human rights," Jost says. "Traditionally, Beijing doesn't emphasize either in its diplomacy – or at least does not do so with the same definitions that the U.S. employs."

It remains unclear whether China's intentions with regard to the Taliban will grant it what it seeks, says Yun Sun, director of the Stimson Center's China Program, who documented relations between the two in a thorough analysis published this week on the national security website War on the Rocks.

Afghanistan may well collapse into a protracted civil war, Sun says, which would undercut the arrangements that China or any other foreign power seeks there.

What is clear from China's latest moves, however, is that the shifting U.S. goals for Afghanistan have not succeeded.

Adds Sun, "Fundamentally, what's implied is that the recognition of the legitimacy of the Taliban equates to the total failure of the 20 years of war by the U.S. in Afghanistan."
 

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Breaking News - Afghan Vice President has fled to Tajikistan.
 

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Pakistan to help Taliban-Turkey talks over Kabul airport: PM Imran

Syed Irfan Raza
Published August 13, 2021 - Updated about 9 hours ago

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Thursday Pakistan would influence the Taliban for holding direct talks with Turkey to secure Kabul International Airport after US troops completely exit the conflict-hit Afghanistan by August 31.

Regarding the impression that US President Joe Biden is not giving due importance to him, Prime Minister Khan said he was not waiting for the president’s telephone call.

“We will be trying the best thing for Turkey and Taliban to have a face-to-face dialogue, so that both could talk about the reasons to secure the Kabul airport,” he said while talking to foreign media persons at PM House (partly reported in Thursday’s issue).

He was responding to a question by a reporter about the government’s position after Turkey proposed a new joint mission involving itself, Pakistan and Hungary to protect the Kabul airport.

Says Islamabad to deal with any govt in Afghanistan, ‘elected or selected’ by its people

The prime minister mentioned his meeting with Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar on Wednesday, during which they also discussed security situation in the region, including Afghanistan.

“We will also talk to the Taliban and use our influence [for a meeting with Turkish government],” he said.

Mr Khan said the Afghan government was getting extremely critical about Pakistan, thinking that it had “some magic powers” to persuade the Taliban.

He said in fact, persuading the Taliban had become more difficult.

“Now, our leverage on the Taliban is miniscule as they think that they have won against the Americans,” he said.

About the controversy over President Biden’s phone call, the prime minister said: “I keep hearing that President Biden hasn’t called me. It’s his business. It’s not like I am waiting for any phone call.”

The prime minister’s comments come days after National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf had said Pakistan had other options if Mr Biden continued to ignore its leadership.

Pakistan, the PM said, would deal with any government in Afghanistan, “elected or selected” by its people.

“An inclusive government would be the best. But if the Taliban do a forceful military takeover, the result will be a civil war and a nightmare for Pakistan,” he added.

The prime minister said Islamabad was “worried” about the law and order situation in Afghanistan because any civil war could result into a direct impact on Pakistan in the shape of an influx of refugees.

To a question on China’s future role in Afghanistan, he said China being an emerging power and a neighbour would have its part in rebuilding of the war-torn country.

He explained that the Taliban were a Pakhtun-majority group and hence there would be spillover effects in Pakistan’s Pakhtun majority areas.

“It happened in 2003/2004 that our Pakhtun areas reacted to what was happening in Afghanistan and Pakistan lost 70,000 people in that because we supported the Americans.

“So there is a likelihood that we will again have problems in our Pakhtun areas,” the premier explained. He added that close to three million people had also been internally displaced from the tribal areas.

Prime Minister Khan pointed out that Pakistan already housed three million registered Afghan refugees with more unaccounted for. “Our economy is just recovering [so] we don’t want another inflow of refugees,” he said.

Pakistan’s entry in the US-led war on terror in 2001 led to a “civil war in the tribal areas”, the prime minister said, explaining that as a result, the militant organisations formed to wage jihad against the Soviet Union turned against Pakistan.

Replying to a question on the extent of Pakistani influence over the Taliban, the premier said that even back in 2001, when Pakistan recognised the Taliban government and was “most influential”, the group had still refused to hand over Osama bin Laden (to the US).

“So even then Pakistan’s influence was not all-encompassing.”

Prime Minister Khan said he had tried to persuade the senior Taliban leadership during their visit to Pakistan earlier this year to come to a political settlement but they had refused to talk to President Ashraf Ghani.

He said he had suggested an interim government in 2019 before the Afghanistan presidential election but “the Afghan government was very critical about this remark [...] Once President Ghani got elected and the Taliban were excluded, it was always going to be a problem from then onwards since he insisted they talk to him while they didn’t recognise him or the elections”.

“Now the Afghan government is extremely critical about Pakistan [and] they think we have some magical powers that we will make the Taliban do whatever we want [them] to do,” the premier said, adding that the Afghan government didn’t realise that Pakistan’s leverage was “minuscule and diminished” since the American withdrawal.

He said it became extremely difficult to persuade the Taliban once the US gave a date for withdrawal and the Afghan government was now blaming Pakistan for the situation in Afghanistan.

Busy day
Prime Minister Khan spent a busy day on Thursday as after inaugurating Terbela Dam expansion project, he held a meeting with the visiting Foreign Minister of Iraq Dr Fuad Hussein. The PM appreciated Baghdad’s resolute efforts to rebuild the country and wished well for the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq.

Discussing various aspects of bilateral relations, the prime minister underscored the importance accorded by Pakistan to further deepening and broadening mutual cooperation with Iraq in diverse fields.

On Afghanistan, Prime Minister Khan reiterated that there was no military solution and that a negotiated political solution was the only way forward. He outlined Pakistan’s consistent support for an inclusive, broad-based and comprehensive political settlement. While reaffirming Pakistan’s resolve to support Afghan peace process, he urged the international community to reinforce these efforts as peace in Afghanistan was a shared responsibility.

Thanking the prime minister for extending warm hospitality to his delegation, Foreign Minister Hussein conveyed cordial greetings of the Iraqi leadership. He affirmed Iraq’s desire to forge stronger relationship with Pakistan in pursuance of the vision of the leadership of the two countries.

On behalf of the Iraqi prime minister, Mr Hussein conveyed invitation to Imran Khan to visit Iraq.

Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin, Minister for Energy Mohammad Hammad Azhar, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sindhu and Azad Jammu and Kashmir Prime Minister Sardar Abdul Qayyum Niazi also met the prime minister and discussed important matters.
 
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