Crisis in the Arabian Gulf | Page 10 | World Defense

Scorpion

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Yep, to him it is more personal and he will react emotionally. That is not good for the US political establishment which is going on a calculated course with its policy on Iran. That being heightened sanctions and sort of a containment. Israel prefers it like that as well. For Arabs, it can be beneficial if he gets emotional and decides to undergo military option against Iran.

Arabs need to capitalize on this situation, by seeking to unite all Arab nations and parties. As well as having an post war strategy.

Also Trump does have many "deep state" advisors. I don't think he would personally decide whether to go with war with Iran or not.
 

Falcon29

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Mullah is chicken, they are nothing but full of hot air, they will blink before the 1st tomahawk fries them.

The point is, Arabs needs to be proactive if such a war breaks out. Assuming the defense/emergency mechanisms are in place, now is the time for the political echelon of the Gulf Arabs to map out a strategy for this war. If the US goes with limited strike option against Iran, that would not benefit the regional situation in the long term. Iran will activate some of its allies in Iraq against Saudi Arabia while doing its part in the Gulf waters region. Which will lead to a tit for tat situation. If regime change is on the table, then it is a whole other story.

I do not think its in the interest of Saudi Arabia to overthrow to Mullah. Saudi Arabia knows that regime change will be a challenge to the Gulf States in terms of trade and investment, oil market, economy as a whole considering Iran manpower and strategic location. Iran has many untapped resources and if sanctions are to be lifted, Iran will be seen as a competitor despite the big gap in oil production. The best way to do it is to tighten the grip over the Mullahs nick to the point he cant breath. Else, divide Iran into small autonomous states based on ethnicity.

Can you elaborate on this more? If I understood correctly, you're referring to a post war Iran in which government will be replaced like in Iraq war. And Iran will return to pre-revolution era during which it was open to the world and so on? If that is the case, then a war will still be in favor of Arabs only and only if they utilize the right political strategies during such a war. Otherwise Iran will still pose a security threat to them even after a limited war. It's hard to change reality in Syria and Iraq, but you somehow need to win back Yemen. And have a larger involvement in Syrian political process.
 

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Also Trump does have many "deep state" advisors. I don't think he would personally decide whether to go with war with Iran or not.
True, despite the perception, he does not make knee-jerk reactions.
 

Falcon29

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Keep in mind, Iranian regime can survive for another year(from internal unrest). So it remains to be seen if Trump wins a second term. It is a complicated situation for both sides. On one hand, Arabs feel they can convince the Trump administration to take more serious measures against Iran, including military ones, while they can. On the other, Iranians can try surviving a whole year of decreased oil exports, but they do not trust the US and its commitment to the nuclear agreement. They also have justification to take their own set of measures due to US withdrawal from agreement and new sanctions. So now is the opportunity for Iran to play its cards as dangerous as that might be.
 

Scorpion

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The point is, Arabs needs to be proactive if such a war breaks out. Assuming the defense/emergency mechanisms are in place, now is the time for the political echelon of the Gulf Arabs to map out a strategy for this war. If the US goes with limited strike option against Iran, that would not benefit the regional situation in the long term. Iran will activate some of its allies in Iraq against Saudi Arabia while doing its part in the Gulf waters region. Which will lead to a tit for tat situation. If regime change is on the table, then it is a whole other story.



Can you elaborate on this more? If I understood correctly, you're referring to a post war Iran in which government will be replaced like in Iraq war. And Iran will return to pre-revolution era during which it was open to the world and so on? If that is the case, then a war will still be in favor of Arabs only and only if they utilize the right political strategies during such a war. Otherwise Iran will still pose a security threat to them even after a limited war. It's hard to change reality in Syria and Iraq, but you somehow need to win back Yemen. And have a larger involvement in Syrian political process.

That is correct and exactly what I am referring to. On the other hand, I don't think Saudi Arabia will be able to have an influence on who gets to be the new government as the issue with Iran is deep rooted not only on political level but on a public level. It is a clash of civilization between Persians and Arabs. Having an influence will very very limited.

If a military op is to take place it will not be limited to few hits here and there rather a full scale one that will flip things upside down. Although Iran military arsenal is a bit outdated, it missiles have to neutralized.

Pro Iran elements in Iraq are no threat. The border with Iraq is heavily militarized and the terrain poses a huge obstacles on the Iraqi side. There might be a few missile launch but the threat will be limited and can easily be dealt with.

Operation in Yemen is not an easy one. It is not an over night job rather a war of attrition so time is needed here. Saudi Arabia can do a full scale invasion from the land, the sea and the air but then what? civilians casualties and humanitarian crisis. Also pro government forces are basically not willing to fight. They get paid by the Saudi gov, fight a few miles and then get paid by the other side and retreat. The Southerns wants to split Yemen into two countries and that is agains the objective of Saudi Arabia. We want them to fight their own war and secure Yemen as a whole. Once that is done they can talk two about two countries. But securing the south and throwing the Houthis back at the border of Saudi Arabia is not and will not be an option even if it takes fighting them all at once.

The bottom line is, full scale war on Iran or NONE. Clipping the fingers of the Mullah should be enough through tough and tight sanctions. The Iranian people then will flip against the Mullah. Once they do we can speak about autonomous regions.
 

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Trump warns Iran not to threaten the US: ‘That will be the official end of Iran’
19 May 2019
Updated 16 min ago
Spencer Kimball


Key Points
  • Trump’s threat, posted on Twitter, comes amid rising international tensions in the Middle East as the U.S. has dispatched a carrier strike group and bomber task force to the region in recent weeks.
  • The New York Times has reported that Trump told acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan that he does not want war with Iran.
  • But his national security advisor John Bolton has reportedly pushed within the administration for an aggressive military posture against Iran.
ONE TIME USE AP: Donald Trump speaking Iran deal 180508

President Donald Trump delivers a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Tuesday, May 8, 2018, in Washington.
Evan Vucci | AP

President Donald Trump on Sunday told Iran to never threaten the United States, warning the Islamic Republic that if it wants a fight, it would be “the official end of Iran.“

Trump’s threat, posted on Twitter, comes amid rising international tensions in the Middle East as the U.S. has dispatched a carrier strike group and bomber task force to the region in recent weeks. The Pentagon says the military moves are in response to “heightened Iranian readiness to conduct offensive operations.”

When asked on Thursday if the United States is going to war with Iran, Trump said “hope not.” The New York Times has reported that Trump told acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan that he does not want war with Iran.

But his national security advisor John Bolton has reportedly pushed within the administration for an aggressive military posture against Iran.
According to The New York Times, Shanahan presented an updated military plan that included sending as many as 120,000 ground troops to the Middle East if Iran attacks U.S. forces or accelerates nuclear work.

The revisions to the military plan was ordered by hard-liners led by Bolton, according to the Times.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said there are growing threats from Iran in the region, but he has had trouble convincing America’s European allies. British Maj. General Chris Ghika, the deputy commander of the U.S.-led coalition fighting the so-called Islamic State, publicly disagreed with the U.S. assessment.

“There has been no increased threat from Iranian backed forces in Iraq and Syria,” Ghika told Pentagon reporters.

The Pentagon later issued a statement saying Ghika’s comments “run counter to the identified credible threats available to intelligence from U.S. and allies regarding Iranian backed forces in the region.”

Pompeo told CNBC that the White House does not want war and would welcome the opportunity to negotiate with Iran.

“We’re not going to miscalculate: Our aim is not war, our aim is a change in the behavior of the Iranian leadership,” Pompeo said. “The forces that we’re putting in place, the forces that we’ve had in the region before — you know, we often have carriers in the Persian Gulf — but the president wanted to make sure that, in the event something took place, we were prepared to respond to it in an appropriate way.”

 

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Saudi shoots down two missiles fired by Houthis
Web Report/Saudi ArabiaMay 20, 2019
AR-190529972.jpg&MaxW=780&imageVersion=16by9&NCS_modified=20190520174720

(KT file)

The missiles were targetting Taif heading towards Makkah and Jeddah.

Saudi Arabia's air defence forces shot down on Monday two ballistic missiles over Taif, one heading towards Makkah and the other over Jeddah, Saudi media reported.


The air defence was able to destroy the ballistic missiles fired by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Al Arabiya said.
The Saudi authorities are yet to issue a formal statement.

This isn't the first time Houthi militias have targeted Makkah -- the most recent attempted attack was in July 2017.
Many Muslims took to social media to express their anger with the trending hashtag #HouthisStrikeMecca.
#HouthisStrikeMecca
Iranian terrorist regime directing Houthi militias to attack Saudi Arabia to target our holy sites
The Iranian threat must be stopped in the region
Attacking Saudi Arabia means attacking one billion Muslims
Attacking our sacred sites means war in the region. pic.twitter.com/1DEoTh7fL5
- ??????? ?? ??????? (@m_saudi_2030) May 20, 2019
Muslims must move to protect the Kaaba and support their Saudi brethren against the Houthi group that fires rockets at Mecca!! #HouthisStrikeMecca #??????_??????_????_???????? pic.twitter.com/Vf3qTckQXh
- wadha (@wadhaa_b) May 20, 2019

"O my Lord ! make makkah safe and protect our holy mosque and keep it's peace and security ????

#HouthisStrikeMecca pic.twitter.com/ulV3zLQdGd
- ????? ???? (@ISky59) May 20, 2019
 

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Arabs Welcome Riyadh’s Call to Hold Two Urgent Summits on Iran’s Assaults
20 May, 2019

download_3.jpg

Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud arrives to deliver an address to Saudi consultative Shura council as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stands next to him, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 13, 2017. SPA/Handout via Reuters

Jeddah – Asharq Al-Awsat

GCC and Arab countries welcomed Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud’s call to hold two urgent summits to discuss Iran’s assaults.

The two summits are scheduled to be held on May 30 in Makkah, one day before the convention of the Islamic summit.

UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said in a statement that the call reflects the Saudi leadership’s continued determination to establish regional peace and security.

The statement shed light on the leading role played by King Salman in “unifying Arab ranks and coordinating Arab stances."

“The current critical circumstances entail a unified Arab and Gulf stance toward the besetting challenges and risks,” the statement read.

The call represents a “significant opportunity for regional countries to achieve their aspirations for establishing peace and stability and ensuring our joint security, sovereignty and achievements.”

Bahrain, for its part, praised King Salman’s call, affirming its full support for all the steps taken by Saudi Arabia and its steadfast solidarity with its strenuous efforts to maintain security and stability of the region and promote Arab interests.

It stressed that the Saudi King’s move affirms the Kingdom’s role in leading joint Arab action and keenness to enhance its ability to overcome the extreme conditions faced by the Gulf region.

It said the Kingdom always carries joint consultation and coordination among GCC and Arab states to reach a unified collective position that guarantees security and stability of the region and its peoples and contributes to maintaining international peace and security.

‘This responsible decision taken by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques aims at reviewing regional developments in a unified Arab framework to discuss these assaults and their regional consequences,” said Ambassador of Djibouti to the Kingdom Dya Eddine Bamakhrama.

Saudi Arabia will host the 14th session of the Islamic Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Makkah on May 31 under the chairmanship of King Salman.

The summit, which will be held under the theme “Makkah Summit: Together towards the Future,” aims at developing a unified stance on current issues and events in the Islamic world.




 

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US Fifth Fleet: GCC Countries Begin Enhanced Maritime Security Patrols
19 May, 2019

training1.jpg

In this Friday, May 17, 2019, photo released by the US Navy, Aviation Boatswain's Mate 2nd Class Nicholas Hawkins, from Houston, Texas, signals an MV-22 Osprey to land on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. (Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Amber Smalley/US Navy via AP)

Asharq Al-Awsat

Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) began "enhanced security patrols" in the international waters of the Arabian Gulf area on Saturday, the US Navy's Fifth Fleet said on Sunday.

The GCC countries were "specifically increasing communication and coordination with each other in support of regional naval cooperation and maritime security operations in the Arabian Gulf," the statement said.

Also Sunday, the US Navy said it has conducted exercises in the Arabian Sea with the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group in coordination with the US Marine Corps, highlighting US "lethality and agility to respond to threat," as well as to deter conflict and preserve US strategic interests.

Taking part in exercises were the Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, both deployed to the US Fifth Fleet area of operations.

The Navy said the exercises, conducted Friday and Saturday, included air-to-air training and steaming in formation and maneuvering.

The White House has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln and B-52s bombers into the region over what US officials say are Iranian threats. Tension grew when four vessels were subjected to sabotage acts near the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates last Sunday.


 

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Top Trump administration officials to brief Senate, House on Iran on Tuesday
Reuters, Washington
Monday, 20 May 2019
352319a4-4c29-4b9f-b356-5ed0095be454_16x9_788x442.jpg

The briefers will include Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Congressional aides said. (File photo: AP)

Top officials from President Donald Trump’s administration will brief the US Senate and House of Representatives about Iran on Tuesday afternoon, Congressional aides said, after lawmakers clamored for more information about the tension between the two countries.

The briefers will be Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Joseph Dunford and an unnamed representative of the intelligence community, Congressional aides said.

Aides had said last week that a Senate briefing was set for Tuesday, but details of the House meeting had not been made final. Trump threatened Iran in a tweet on Sunday, raising concerns about a potential US-Iran conflict at a time when tensions between Washington and Tehran have risen.

Concern also rose after a rocket was fired on Sunday into the Iraqi capital Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions, falling near the US Embassy but causing no casualties.

 

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Iran's Rouhani: Today's situation isn't suitable for talks, resistance is our only choice: IRNA
May 21, 2019

CAIRO (Reuters) - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said he favors talks and diplomacy but not under current conditions, state news agency IRNA said late on Monday.

“Today’s situation is not suitable for talks and our choice is resistance only” IRNA quoted Rouhani as saying.

U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier on Monday that Iran would be met with “great force” if it attempted anything against U.S. interests in the Middle East, adding that Tehran has been very hostile toward Washington.

Trump told reporters as he departed the White House for an event in Pennsylvania that he was willing to have talks with Iran “when they’re ready.”

Reporting by Ali Abdelaty; Editing by Sandra Maler


 

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Trump: U.S. will respond with 'great force' if Iran attacks interests
May 21, 2019
Mark Hosenball


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump warned on Monday Iran would be met with “great force” if it attacked U.S. interests in the Middle East, and government sources said Washington strongly suspects Shi’ite militias with ties to Tehran were behind a rocket attack in Baghdad’s Green Zone.

“I think Iran would be making a very big mistake if they did anything,” Trump told reporters as he left the White House on Monday evening for an event in Pennsylvania. “If they do something, it will be met with great force but we have no indication that they will.”

His comments came as two U.S. government sources said the United States strongly suspects Shi’ite militias with ties to, and possibly encouragement from, Iran fired a rocket on Sunday into Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone.

The sources, who are familiar with U.S. national security assessments and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the United States was still trying to establish which militia fired the Katyusha rocket on Sunday and the extent, if any, of Iranian involvement.

The rocket fell in the Green Zone which houses government buildings and embassies and caused no casualties, the latest in a series of regional attacks the United States believes may have been inspired by Iran. Iran has rejected allegations of its possible involvement in attacks last week and Iran’s Iraqi allies rushed to condemn Sunday’s rocket blast.

The attacks include what Saudi Arabia described as armed drone attacks on two oil pumping stations within the kingdom on May 14 and the sabotage of four vessels, including two Saudi oil tankers, off the coast of the United Arab Emirates on May 12.

 

Scorpion

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The US considering sending 5k troops to its bases around Iran. Location not known but mostly likely to the US base in Qatar.
 

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UAE Committed to ‘Transparent’ Probe in Sabotage Operations
22 May, 2019

The United Arab Emirates welcomed the many international partners that have joined, and requested to join, the international investigation on the recent sabotage operations, which targeted four tankers that carried Emirati, Saudi and Norwegian flags, in UAE regional waters in the Gulf of Oman last week.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation issued a statement stressing "the participation of our international partners confirms the UAE’s commitment to a transparent and impartial investigative process".

The joint investigation is a testament to the international community’s collective commitment to ensuring maritime traffic safety and security, protecting international trade flows, and safeguarding energy supplies, read the statement according to the UAE news agency (WAM).

With the participation of UAE’s international partners, the investigation is still underway and will be allowed to run its full course and take the necessary time.

 
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