Crisis in the Arabian Gulf

[Khafee]

Congressional leaders get classified briefing on Iran
By SUSANNAH GEORGE
17 May 2019


Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., passes reporters as he and other top congressional leaders head to a classified briefing on Iran after members of both parties asked for more information on the White House's claims of rising threats in the Middle East, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, May 16, 2019. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he hopes the U.S. is not a path to war with Iran following a series of administration statements and actions that have alarmed American allies. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Congressional leaders received a classified briefing on Iran from the White House Thursday following criticism that lawmakers have been kept out of the loop about recent military moves in the Middle East.

Members of the so-called Gang of Eight were tight-lipped as they left the briefing. The ranking member of the Senate intelligence committee, Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, refused to comment on the classified information discussed, but said more lawmakers should be informed of the Iran threat.

“I think obviously there are certain protections that have to be maintained for Gang of Eight but it’s very important that more members hear this story,” Warner told reporters.

Classified briefings on Iran will also be given next week to the full House and Senate.

Frustration has been mounting in Congress about the lack of consultation from the White House after the Trump administration sent military assets to the Middle East to protect U.S. interests and on Wednesday partially evacuated the U.S. embassy in Baghdad.

Asked Thursday at the White House if escalating tensions with Iran will lead to war, Trump replied, “I hope not.”

Speaking from the Senate floor, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida defended the White House’s actions. Rubio, a member of the Senate intelligence committee, described “a persistent and clear stream of information” about Iranian threats to U.S. troops and other assets in the Middle East.

Iranian forces “and their proxies in the region pose a serious and potentially imminent threat to U.S. forces and U.S. civilians in Iraq and in the broader Middle East,” he said. Rubio also said he welcomed upcoming briefings and suggested that skepticism about the administration’s assessment of the Iran threat has been fueled by a lack of information.

Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the White House raised the alarm on Iran after seeing multiple pieces of intelligence and that it wasn’t “a single item that (moved) the needle.”

“There’s been public reporting about the movement of rockets on a boat. ... I would caution, I would strongly caution everyone not to grab onto that and say ‘aha! This is it.’ That is the tip of the iceberg,” he said.

The Trump administration has taken a hard line on Iran. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal last year and has re-imposed punishing sanctions that have crippled Tehran’s economy. Most recently the Trump administration designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organization in April.

Some lawmakers accused the White House of provoking Iranian retaliation.

“The Iranians moving weapons around is not a new thing and that they may be doing it at a more rapid pace after we have threatened them with a carrier strike group is not surprising,” said Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., a senior member of the House Intelligence Committee.

State Department officials said threats in the region were credible and based on intelligence showing Iranian-backed militias had been moving personnel and weaponry as well as stepping up surveillance of U.S. and U.S.-affiliated facilities in Iraq and other parts of the Middle East. The officials were not authorized to comment publicly by name and spoke only on condition of anonymity.


Members of Congress, senior U.S. officials and allies have expressed skepticism in response to warnings from the administration about Iran’s regional threat. Many lawmakers referenced the role of false intelligence in the lead-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq when questioning current intelligence on Iran.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a member of the Gang of Eight, said failure to inform Congress is “part of a pattern” for the Trump administration “that is not right” because the power to declare war resides with the Congress.

“So I hope that the president’s advisers recognize that they have no authorization to go forward in any way” against Iran, Pelosi said.
__
Associated Press writer Matthew Lee contributed to this report.

 

[yavar]

Russian President Putin during press conference with Austrian president Alexander Van der Bellen 15/5/2019: "We are not ‘a fire brigade' "we cannot save everything" at time of height of probability of military conflict between the United States and Iran

 

[Khafee]

Iran's elite naval forces said to pass skills to proxy fighters
May 17, 2019
Babak Dehghanpisheh, Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

GENEVA/LONDON (Reuters) - An unmanned Iranian boat skips over the waves at full speed and rams into a U.S. aircraft carrier, sending up an orange fireball and plumes of smoke.
​

That attack against a mock-up U.S. warship was part of elaborate naval war games carried out by the elite Revolutionary Guards in 2015. Dozens of speedboats, ships firing missiles, and helicopters were involved. Video of the exercise ran on state TV for hours.

U.S. officials are now concerned that Iran has passed this naval combat expertise on to proxy forces in the region, whom Washington blames for attacks against four oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates on Sunday.

Iranian officials denied involvement and said their enemies carried out the attacks in order to lay the groundwork for war against the Islamic Republic.

Iran has not addressed the issue of training proxies, but has warned that its allies in the region have the weapons and capability to target enemies if Iranian interests are threatened.

Tensions have spiked between Iran and the United States, which sent more military forces to the Middle East, including an aircraft carrier, B-52 bombers and Patriot missiles, in a show of force against what U.S. officials say are Iranian threats to its troops and interests in the region.

U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from a major 2015 nuclear deal last year and reimposed sanctions in order to cut off Iran’s oil exports. This was supported by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which said they would increase oil production to keep prices stable.

The Revolutionary Guards, designated a “foreign terrorist organization” by Washington last month, have threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which one fifth of the world’s oil consumption flows, if Iran is not able to export oil.

​

The U.S. embassy in Baghdad began evacuating some staff this week in apparent concern about perceived threats from Iran.

If Iran or one of its proxies was involved in the tanker attacks, which did not sink any of the ships or cause fatalities, it was a warning message, experts say.

DENIABLE
“Iran’s actions are conducted in a manner which are both understood by the world to be conducted by Iran, but not to the extent that the international community can justify a response. In this way, the actions are attributable but deniable,” said Norman Roule, a former senior CIA officer with experience in Middle East issues.

“Attacks against oil tankers produce tremendous publicity for Iran and raise oil prices. The latter has a direct, if temporary, impact on the economies of China and Western Europe, and Iran likely believes this will compel them to pressure the U.S. to make concessions to avoid future such attacks.”

The tanker attacks on Sunday, followed by armed drone attacks on two of Saudi Aramco’s oil pumping stations on Tuesday, pushed up global oil prices, which by Thursday had jumped nearly 4%.

The United Arab Emirates said an investigation was under way into the sabotage attacks, stressing it was committed to de-escalation during a “difficult situation” caused by Iranian behavior in the region.

​

Saudi Arabia accused Iran of ordering the drone attacks on its oil pipelines. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, who have been battling a Saudi-led military coalition for four years, had earlier claimed responsibility.

The techniques used in the attacks against the tankers off the Emirates’ coast were not particularly sophisticated, observers with military and intelligence experience say.

The ships may have been damaged by floating or magnetic mines placed by a team of divers, according to these observers.

Iran has experienced marines who could have carried out this type of operation, or they could have outsourced the mission to local forces, possibly Houthis, said Hossein Aryan, a military analyst who served 18 years in the Iranian navy before and after the Islamic revolution.

“We used to practice it a lot, it’s general practice. You place a limpet mine and disable an enemy ship,” he said. “Iran has capable marines to do this. It could either send its own people or send some key people to help with locals to do that. It was a soft target.”

It is also possible that an unmanned boat of the sort Iran used in the 2015 military exercise may have been used in the attacks.

Iran is now passing on that naval expertise to allied military forces, officials and observers say.

DRONES
“Iran is exporting know-how for unmanned boats and drones,” said an official from the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, who asked not be identified, noting that up to 50 members of Lebanon’s Iranian-trained Hezbollah guerrilla group and the Revolutionary Guards train and advise Houthi fighters.

Houthi forces are now able to launch drones from boats at sea, according to a Saudi security source.

Iran has denied playing any role in the conflict in Yemen.

Tensions between Iran and the U.S. in the Gulf are not new: in the late 1980s the American and Iranian navies clashed after Iran was accused of mining shipping lanes.

Since that time, the Guards have attempted to send a message about their naval prowess by regularly carrying out operations and military drills in the Gulf. The Guards’ navy detained British military personnel in 2004 and 2007 as well as ten U.S. sailors in 2016. All were eventually released.

In recent years, the Guards have even taken on missions outside the Gulf. Special forces from the Guards’ navy carried out anti-piracy operations for nearly four months in the Gulf of Aden in 2012, their then commander told the Fars news agency.

Military forces trained or armed by the Guards have also shown their naval combat skills.

In the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War, Hezbollah hit an Israeli warship with a missile, killing four Israeli sailors.

Houthi forces in Yemen carried out a series of attacks on Saudi oil tankers last year, leading to a temporary halt of the kingdom’s oil exports through the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

​

If the current tensions between Iran and the United States spill over into open conflict, all of the Islamic Republic’s allies, as well as its enemy Israel, are likely to be drawn into a regional war, Ibrahim Al-Amin, co-founder of the pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar newspaper, wrote on Thursday.

He said Iran would receive support from forces in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

“So that nobody is in a state of confusion and so that nobody acts as if they didn’t know the nature of the confrontation, Hezbollah will be in the heart of this battle,” Al-Amin wrote.

Reporting by Babak Dehghanpisheh in Geneva and Bozorgmehr Sharefedin in London; Additional reporting by Stephen Kalin in Riyadh, Ahmed Rasheed and John Davison in Baghdad, and Tom Perry in Beirut; Editing by Giles Elgood

Iran's elite naval forces said to pass skills to proxy fighters

An unmanned Iranian boat skips over the waves at full speed and rams into a U.S. aircraft carrier, sending up an orange fireball and plumes of smoke.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

Iran missile photos grant US new picture of threat in Arabian Gulf
Updated: May 18, 2019 05:16 PM
Experts see Iran projecting force beyond its shores

A handout picture released by Iran's Defence Ministry shows newly-upgraded Sayyad-3 air defense missiles on display during an inauguration of its production line at an undisclosed location in Iran. AFP PHOTO/IRANIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY

As American officials circulated photographs of Iranian boats traversing the Arabian Gulf bearing missiles, there was a growing consensus on Friday that Tehran had been caught red-handed.

Experts are divided on whether the images show already reported activity or a new clear and present danger to free passage in the straits.

“Reports that Iran was loading missiles on boats are certainly credible. After all, it is not the first time. There is good evidence that Iran has previously supplied missiles to Houthi rebels by sea,” said Mark Fitzpatrick from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

That Iran has “plenty” of coastal combat boats was not in doubt, added Erwin van Veen from the Clingendael Institute – but the question, he said, was if the pictures represented a step change in the threat level.

Peter Waring, an analyst at consultancy Ridgeway Information, said Iran has a formidable maritime and littoral capability in the Arabian Gulf and a track record of targeting vessels at times of tension.

“Assuming that the New York Times assessed the imagery, the reports do appear credible,” he said. “The reporting I’ve seen are somewhat contradictory but given the small size and carrying capacity of dhows, it is likely that the missiles in question are the Noor anti-ship missile. These weapons have – according to some reports – already been used on the Saudi side of the Gulf by Houthi rebels.

“It can be assumed – by the use of Iranian missiles previously by Houthi rebels in Yemen against targets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia – that these weapons have been smuggled across the Gulf for some time.”

Mr Fitzpatrick, a former US State Department official, said it was far less credible that Iran would seek to fire from the boats, citing the difficulty of firing accurately. “Iran would have no reason to do so, because it has ample on-shore locations from which to fire,” he said.

Nicholas Heras, Middle East Security Fellow at the Centre for a New American Security and Senior Analyst at Jamestown Foundation, said the Iranians did see an advantage in force projection across the water. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has adopted so-called swarm tactics with small boats to harass US Navy vessels in transit.

“The US military does not mess around when it comes to evidence of this nature that could later be used as a casus belli,” he said. “A great concern for the US, and its Gulf Arab partners, is how the IRGC could use the maritime domain to support its proxies, to close off international maritime shipping, or even significantly damage or destroy US and partner vessels. Iran sees the maritime domain as an arena where it can fight the US at something like parity, and where it can undermine close US partners like Bahrain. This is a grave situation.”

But President Donald Trump has also reportedly told senior cabinet officials that conflict is not something he seeks. Analysts argue that he is trying to pressure Iran into talks where they have the weak hand.

“It’s very hard to tell – either Iran really was preparing some retaliation, or the Trump administration wants it to have been, and to present it as being true,” said Patrick Porter from the Royal United Services Institute.

Arshin Adib-Moghaddam from SOAS in London said “so-called evidence of Iranian escalations” was merely part of a US campaign combining “psychological warfare and gunboat diplomacy” to push Iran towards the nuclear negotiating table once again.

Mr Porter said in some ways the surge in tensions resembled a Gulf version of the North Korean crisis in August 2017 where Mr Trump said Pyongyang would be met with "fire, fury and frankly power, the likes of which the world has never seen”, as the regime continued its nuclear testing.

Ultimately and perhaps surprisingly, relations between the two countries thawed for a period of time, although this was less likely in the case of Iran, argued Mr Porter.

He said President Hassan Rouhani was “far less incentivised to talk to Trump than Kim with Trump” whereas as North Korea “craved a presidential summit with Washington for decades”.

“Iranian leaders who so much as talk to a US president on the phone get in trouble domestically,” he added.

If, however, US and Iranian officials do get around the table, do not expect it to simply be a capitulation for Iran, warned Chatham House’s Sanam Vakil.

“I believe President Trump wants negotiations with Iran and that it is his end game. What he might not being doing so well is creating an environment to facilitate those negotiations,” she said. “Iran is trying to build some leverage, be on more equal ground and is looking to see a change in American behaviour, policy, language, dialling down of some its demands on Iran.”

“The president and his advisers seem to think that maximum pressure is the best way to communicate with Iran. I don't think that's very productive,” added Ms Vakil.

Iran missile photos grant US new picture of threat in Arabian Gulf

Experts see Iran projecting force beyond its shores

www.thenational.ae

 

[Lieutenant]

It looks like the US is going to deploy troops in large numbers in the Gulf.

Gulf nations ‘approve US request to deploy troops in the Gulf’

JEDDAH: The United States is planning to deploy military forces in the waters of the Arabian Gulf and in a number of Gulf Cooperation Council countries, according to media reports in the region last night. The request from Washington was approved by a number of GCC nations, including Saudi...

www.arabnews.com

 

[Khafee]

Iran dismisses possibility of conflict, says does not want war
May 18, 2019

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran’s top diplomat on Saturday dismissed the possibility of war erupting in the region, saying Tehran did not want a conflict and that no country had the “illusion it can confront Iran”, the state news agency IRNA reported.


Tensions between Washington and Tehran have increased in recent days, raising concerns about a potential U.S.-Iran conflict. Earlier this week the United States pulled some diplomatic staff from its Baghdad embassy following attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf.

“There will be no war because neither do we want a war, nor has anyone the idea or illusion it can confront Iran in the region,” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told IRNA before ending a visit to Beijing.

President Donald Trump has bolstered economic sanctions and built up U.S. military presence in the region, accusing Iran of threats to U.S. troops and interests. Tehran has described those steps as “psychological warfare” and a “political game”.

“The fact is that Trump has officially said and reiterated again that he does not want a war, but people around him are pushing for war on the pretext that they want to make America stronger against Iran,” Zarif said.

He told Reuters last month that Trump could be lured into a conflict by the likes of U.S. national security adviser John Bolton, an ardent Iran hawk.

n Tehran, Major General Hossein Salami, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, said on Saturday that Iran had nothing to fear from the United States, which he said was in decline, the semi-official news agency ISNA reported.

“The U.S. political system is full of cracks. Though impressive-looking, it has osteoporosis. In fact, America’s story is like the World Trade Center towers that collapse with a sudden blow,” Salami, known for his fiery rhetoric, was quoted as saying. He was referring to the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

REGIONAL TENSIONS
In a sign of the heightened tension across the region, Exxon Mobil evacuated foreign staff from an oilfield in neighboring Iraq after days of saber rattling between Washington and Tehran.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, Bahrain warned its citizens against traveling to Iraq or Iran due to “unstable conditions”.

In Washington, officials urged U.S. commercial airliners flying over the waters of the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to exercise caution.

A Norwegian insurers’ report seen by Reuters said Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards were “highly likely” to have facilitated the attacks last Sunday on four tankers including two Saudi ships off Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.

Iranian officials have denied involvement in the tanker attacks, saying Tehran’s enemies carried them out to lay the groundwork for war against Iran.

U.S. officials, however, are concerned that Tehran may have passed naval combat expertise onto proxy forces in the region.

Following the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions, a senior Iranian maritime official said Iran had adopted new tactics and new destinations in shipping its oil exports.

Iranian crude oil exports have fallen in May to 500,000 barrels per day or lower, according to tanker data and industry sources, after the United States tightened the screws on Iran’s main source of income.

Reporting by Dubai newsroom; Editing by Helen Popper and Ros Russell

Iran dismisses possibility of conflict, says does not want war

Iran's top diplomat dismissed the possibility of war erupting in the region at a time of escalating confrontation with the United States, saying Tehran did not want conflict and no country had the "illusion it can confront Iran".

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

Bahrain asks its citizens to leave Iran, Iraq 'immediately'
May 18, 2019

DUBAI (Reuters) - U.S.-allied Bahrain warned its citizens on Saturday against travel to Iraq and Iran and asked those already there to return “immediately” for their safety, state news agency BNA said.

The Bahrain foreign ministry cited, “unstable regional circumstances, dangerous developments and potential threats,” according to BNA.
The warning comes amid simmering tensions between the United States and Iran.

Washington on Wednesday pulled non-emergency staff members from its embassy in the Iraqi capital Baghdad out of apparent concern about perceived threats from neighboring Iran, to which Iraqi Shi’ite militias are allied. Earlier on Saturday Exxon evacuated its foreign staff from an Iraqi oilfield.

Reporting By Maha El Dahan

Bahrain asks its citizens to leave Iran, Iraq 'immediately'

U.S.-allied Bahrain warned its citizens on Saturday against travel to Iraq and Iran and asked those already there to return "immediately" for their safety, state news agency BNA said.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

U.S. issues warning on airspace near Gulf as Iran tensions simmer
May 18, 2019


(Reuters) - The Federal Aviation Administration has issued an advisory to U.S. commercial airliners flying over the waters of the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to exercise caution as tensions between Washington and Tehran continue to simmer.

The advisory, issued by the FAA on Thursday and circulated late on Friday, said the warning came amidst “heightened military activities and increased political tensions in the region which present an increasing inadvertent risk to U.S. civil aviation operations due to the potential for miscalculation or mis-identification”.

Tensions have risen in recent days, with concerns about a potential U.S.-Iran conflict. Earlier this week, the United States pulled some diplomatic staff from its embassy in Baghdad following weekend attacks on four oil tankers in the Gulf.

Washington has increased economic sanctions and built up its military presence in the region, accusing Iran of threats to U.S. troops and interests. Tehran has described those steps as “psychological warfare” and a “political game”.

On Friday, a defiant Iran said it could “easily” hit U.S. ships.

Reporting By Stephen Kalin; Writing By Maha El Dahan. Editing by Jane Merriman

U.S. issues warning on airspace near Gulf as Iran tensions simmer

The Federal Aviation Administration has issued an advisory to U.S. commercial airliners flying over the waters of the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to exercise caution as tensions between Washington and Tehran continue to simmer.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

Exclusive: Insurer says Iran's Guards likely to have organized tanker attacks
May 17, 2019
Jonathan Saul, Gwladys Fouche

LONDON/OSLO (Reuters) - Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are “highly likely” to have facilitated attacks last Sunday on four tankers including two Saudi ships off Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, according to a Norwegian insurers’ report seen by Reuters.

The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Norway are investigating the attacks, which also hit a UAE- and a Norwegian-flagged vessel.

A confidential assessment issued this week by the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Insurance Association (DNK) concluded that the attack was likely to have been carried out by a surface vessel operating close by that despatched underwater drones carrying 30-50 kg (65-110 lb) of high-grade explosives to detonate on impact.

The attacks took place against a backdrop of U.S.-Iranian tension following Washington’s decision this month to try to cut Tehran’s oil exports to zero and beef up its military presence in the Gulf in response to what it called Iranian threats.

The DNK based its assessment that the IRGC was likely to have orchestrated the attacks on a number of factors, including:

- A high likelihood that the IRGC had previously supplied its allies, the Houthi militia fighting a Saudi-backed government in Yemen, with explosive-laden surface drone boats capable of homing in on GPS navigational positions for accuracy.

- The similarity of shrapnel found on the Norwegian tanker to shrapnel from drone boats used off Yemen by Houthis, even though the craft previously used by the Houthis were surface boats rather than the underwater drones likely to have been deployed in Fujairah.

- The fact that Iran and particularly the IRGC had recently threatened to use military force and that, against a militarily stronger foe, they were highly likely to choose “asymmetric measures with plausible deniability”. DNK noted that the Fujairah attack had caused “relatively limited damage” and had been carried out at a time when U.S. Navy ships were still en route to the Gulf.

Both the Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker Amjad and the UAE-flagged bunker vessel A.Michel sustained damage in the area of their engine rooms, while the Saudi tanker Al Marzoqah was damaged in the aft section and the Norwegian tanker Andrea Victory suffered extensive damage to the stern, DNK said.

The DNK report said the attacks had been carried out between six and 10 nautical miles off Fujairah, which lies close to the Strait of Hormuz.

SENDING A MESSAGE
Iran has in the past threatened to block all exports through the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated fifth of the world’s oil passes.

According to DNK, it was highly likely that the attacks had been intended to send a message to the United States and its allies that Iran did not need to block the Strait to disrupt freedom of navigation in the region.


DNK said Iran was also likely to continue similar low-scale attacks on merchant vessels in the coming period.

Iranian officials and the Revolutionary Guards’ (IRGC) spokesman were not available for comment.

Tehran had already rejected allegations of involvement and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had said that “extremist individuals” in the U.S. government were pursuing dangerous policies. No one claimed responsibility for the attacks.

DNK’s managing director Svein Ringbakken declined to comment, except to say that “this is an internal and confidential report produced to inform shipowner members of the DNK about the incidents in Fujairah and the most likely explanation”.

The UAE has not blamed anyone for the attack.

Two U.S. government sources said this week that U.S. officials believed Iran had encouraged Houthi militants or Iraq-based Shi’ite militias to carry out the attack.

In a joint letter seen by Reuters and sent to the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Norway said the attacks had been deliberate and could have resulted in casualties, spillages of oil or harmful chemicals.

“The attacks damaged the hulls of at least three of the vessels, threatened the safety and lives of those on board, and could have led to an environmental disaster,” the letter said.

Last month, the United States designated the entire IRGC as a terrorist organization. Washington had previously designated entities and individuals connected with the IRGC, which controls vast segments of Iran’s economy.

Tehran responded by designating the regional United States Central Command (CENTCOM) as a terrorist organization.

Additional reporting by Alexander Cornwell and Parisa Hafezi in Dubai, Michelle Nichols in New York; Editing by Kevin Liffey

Exclusive: Insurer says Iran's Guards likely to have organized tanker attacks

Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) are "highly likely" to have facilitated attacks last Sunday on four tankers including two Saudi ships off Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, according to a Norwegian insurers' report seen by Reuters.

www.reuters.com

 

[Lieutenant]

Iran has no chance in this conflict. How many US bases are in the region (Afghanistan, Iraq, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar hosts the US largest military base in the world, Turkey, Small bases in Syria)

The Saudis and the UAE have very advanced military capabilities. Pakistan might get involved in this as well.

Disturbing oil supplies will also bring China and India into the picture.

 

[Khafee]

Iran has no chance in this conflict. How many US bases are in the region (Afghanistan, Iraq, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar hosts the US largest military base in the world, Turkey, Small bases in Syria)

The Saudis and the UAE have very advanced military capabilities. Pakistan might get involved in this as well.

Disturbing oil supplies will also bring China and India into the picture.

Iran is running high on some intoxicant. They will get a very rude awakening.

 

[Khafee]

Iran denies ties to Houthi drone attack on Saudi oil installations
May 17, 2019

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran’s foreign ministry on Friday rejected accusations by Saudi Arabia that Tehran had ordered an attack on Saudi oil installations claimed by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militia.

U.S.-ally Riyadh made the accusation amid growing tension between Iran and its arch-foe the United States, which has built up its military presence in the region alleging threats from Iran to its troops and interests.

The Houthis, which have been battling a Saudi-led military coalition for four years, said they carried out Tuesday’s drone strikes against the East-West pipeline, which caused a fire but Riyadh said did not disrupt output or exports.

“You’re still deluded after 1,500 days, isn’t that enough?,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, said on his Twitter account, referring to the length of the Yemen war.

Mousavi was responding to Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir who tweeted on Thursday: “The Houthis are an indivisible part of #Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps ... and subject to the IRGC’s orders. This is confirmed by the #Houthis targeting facilities in the Kingdom.”

Mousavi added: “It’s time for you to stop your crimes against #Yemeni people. You can’t hide your weakness behind such claims.”

A military coalition led by neighboring Saudi Arabia, which receives weapons from the West, intervened in Yemen in March 2015 after the Houthis ousted Yemen’s internationally recognized government from the capital Sanaa. The conflict is seen as a proxy war between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran.

Separately, Mousavi condemned air strikes on Thursday by the Saudi-led coalition on Sanaa and called on international and human rights bodies “to act according to their responsibility to prevent the repetition of these crimes”, state news agency IRNA said.

The Houthi group denies being a puppet of Tehran or receiving arms from Iran, and says its revolution is against corruption. Iran denies Saudi accusations that it gives financial and military support to the Houthis and blames the deepening civil war crisis on Riyadh.

Reporting by Dubai newsroom, Editing by William Maclean

Iran denies ties to Houthi drone attack on Saudi oil installations

Iran's foreign ministry on Friday rejected accusations by Saudi Arabia that Tehran had ordered an attack on Saudi oil installations claimed by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militia.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

Trump denies friction with top aides over Iran policy
May 17, 2019
by Steve Holland

(The story contains language that some readers may find offensive.)


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday denied friction with his hawkish foreign policy advisers on Iran, specifically giving statements of support to White House national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Trump called “bullshit” a variety of news reports that he had chafed at his advisers and privately expressed concerns that they were trying to steer him into a war with Iran.

U.S. officials said on Thursday that Trump had told his advisers, including acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, that he did not want to get into a war with Iran.

“They (the news media) put out messages that I’m angry with my people. I’m not angry with my people. I make my own decisions,” Trump said at a realtor’s convention in Washington. “Mike Pompeo is doing a great job. Bolton is doing a great job.”

Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign promised to stay out of conflicts abroad after what he viewed as costly wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

But he also has said he will do what it takes to protect U.S. interests abroad. The recent deployment of a U.S. aircraft carrier group has raised tensions in the Gulf region and fanned fears of armed conflict.

Trump has approved sanctions against Tehran aimed at crippling the Iranian economy and forcing Iranian leaders to the negotiating table. The United States wants Iran to give up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and stop other activities it believes are destabilizing in the Middle East.

Pompeo laid out a lengthy list of demands on Iran a year ago that critics inside and outside Tehran said showed he was pushing for regime change.

Bolton has a long reputation as a hawk who believes the United States needs to get tough with Iran and has pushed a hard line inside the administration since joining the White House more than a year ago.

While he has been tough on Iran, Trump told reporters last week that he sometimes has to “temper” Bolton.

“We are all frustrated with this notion that we are escalating, that we are seeking conflict,” said a senior administration official, who spoke to a small group of reporters under condition of anonymity. “Nothing could be further from the truth. We are seeking de-escalation.”

The official was asked about the notion of Bolton and Pompeo trying to “herd” Trump down the path of war. “Herding Trump down any path is an unsuccessful strategy. There are many witnesses to that,” the official said.

Bolton’s views on Iran are well-documented, the official said, but stressed, “He has no illusions. He serves the president and he accepted this job because he believes in the president’s policies, and he carries them out.”

As for Trump’s overture to Iran seeking direct talks, there are no indications from the Iranians that they are ready to engage, the official said: “Not yet. We’re sitting by the phone.”

U.S. intelligence showed heightened activity by Iran or its proxies that U.S. officials took as a threat against American targets in the region.

Reporting by Steve Holland and Roberta Rampton; editing by Jonathan Oatis, Cynthia Osterman and Bill Berkrot

Trump denies friction with top aides over Iran policy

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday denied friction with his hawkish foreign policy advisers on Iran, specifically giving statements of support to White House national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

US: Iran military could misidentify airliners amid tension
By JON GAMBRELL
2 hours ago
18 May 2019

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Commercial airliners flying over the Persian Gulf risk being targeted by “miscalculation or misidentification” from the Iranian military amid heightened tensions between the Islamic Republic and the U.S., American diplomats warned Saturday, even as both Washington and Tehran say they don’t seek war.

The warning relayed by U.S. diplomatic posts from the Federal Aviation Administration, though dismissed by Iran, underscored the risks the current tensions pose to a region critical to both global air travel and trade. Oil tankers allegedly have faced sabotage and Yemen rebel drones attacked a crucial Saudi oil pipeline over the last week.

Meanwhile on Saturday, Iraqi officials said ExxonMobil Corp. began evacuating staff from Basra, and the island nation of Bahrain ordered its citizens out of Iraq and Iran over “the recent escalations and threats.”

However, U.S. officials have yet to publicly explain the threats they perceive coming from Iran, some two weeks after the White House ordered an aircraft carrier and B-52s bombers into the region. The U.S. also has ordered nonessential staff out of its diplomatic posts in Iraq.

President Donald Trump since has sought to soften his tone on Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also stressed Saturday that Iran is “not seeking war,” comments seemingly contradicted by the head of the Revolutionary Guard, who declared an ongoing “intelligence war” between the nations.

This all takes root in Trump’s decision last year to withdraw the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers and impose wide-reaching sanctions. Iran just announced it would begin backing away from terms of the deal, setting a 60-day deadline for Europe to come up with new terms or it would begin enriching uranium closer to weapons-grade levels. Tehran long has insisted it does not seek nuclear weapons, though the West fears its program could allow it to build atomic bombs.

The order relayed Saturday by U.S. diplomats in Kuwait and the UAE came from an FAA Notice to Airmen published late Thursday in the U.S. It said that all commercial aircraft flying over the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman needed to be aware of Iran’s fighter jets and weaponry.
“Although Iran likely has no intention to target civil aircraft, the presence of multiple long-range, advanced anti-aircraft-capable weapons in a tense environment poses a possible risk of miscalculation or misidentification, especially during periods of heightened political tension and rhetoric,” the warning said.

It also said aircraft could experience interference with its navigation instruments and communications jamming “with little to no warning.”
The warning comes 30 years after the USS Vincennes mistook an Iran Air commercial jetliner for an Iranian F-14, shooting it down and killing all 290 people onboard. That was not lost on Iran’s mission to the United Nations, which dismissed the warning as America’s “psychological war against Iran.”

“There has never been a threat or risk to civilian air traffic in the Persian Gulf from Iran,” mission spokesman Alireza Miryousefi told The Associated Press. “One cannot forget the fact that it was indeed a U.S. warship that wantonly targeted an Iranian civilian passenger aircraft. ... The U.S. has yet to apologize for that act of terrorism against Iranian civilians.”

The Persian Gulf has since become a major gateway for East-West travel in the aviation industry. Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates, home to Emirates, is the world’s busiest for international travel, while long-haul carriers Etihad and Qatar Airways also operate in the region.

Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways all said they were aware of the notice and their operations were unaffected. Oman Air did not respond to a request for comment.

Speaking in China, where he finished a tour of Asian nations who rely on Mideast oil, Zarif told the state-run IRNA news agency that war is not what Iran wants.

“No war will occur as neither are we seeking a war nor anyone else has the illusion of being able to fight with Iran in the region,” Zarif said.
Meanwhile, the head of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard reportedly said the U.S. and Iran already were in a “full-fledged intelligence war.”

The semi-official Fars news agency also quoted Gen. Hossein Salami using 9/11 as a metaphor for America’s political system, describing it Saturday “like the World Trade Building that collapses with a sudden hit.”

It isn’t just air traffic affected. Lloyd’s Market Association Joint War Committee added the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the United Arab Emirates on Friday to its list of areas posing higher risk to insurers. It also expanded its list to include the Saudi coast as a risk area.

In Iraq, ExxonMobil began evacuating staff from Basra amid the tensions with Iran, two Iraqi officials told The Associated Press. ExxonMobil works in Basra at its West Qurna I oil field, which had been shut off for years from Western oil firms over sanctions levied on Iraq during dictator Saddam Hussein’s time in power.

The U.S. Consulate in Basra has been closed since September after American officials blamed Iran-aligned Shiite militias for a rocket attack on the post, which is inside Basra’s airport compound. Basra as a whole has been shaken by violent protests in recent months over entrenched corruption and poor public services, which earlier saw Iran’s Consulate there overrun and set ablaze.

ExxonMobil, based in Irving, Texas, said it declined to discuss “operational staffing.”

Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest Arab producer, pumping some 4.5 million barrels of crude oil a day.

Separately, the State Department acknowledged an unidentified drone flew over the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Thursday and the facility briefly went on alert, though it said the aircraft posed no threat.

US: Iran military could misidentify airliners amid tension

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Commercial airliners flying over the Persian Gulf risk being targeted by "miscalculation or misidentification" from the Iranian military amid heightened tensions between the Islamic Republic and the U.S., American diplomats warned Saturday, even as both Washington

www.apnews.com

 

[Scorpion]

Something smells fishy. Iran has moved some missiles into Iraq. I think there might be a surgical operation against Hizbollah in Lebanon and Iran bases in Syria.