Crisis in the Arabian Gulf

[Khafee]

Saudi Arabia says it seeks to avert war, ball in Iran's court
May 19, 2019
Marwa Rashad, Stephen Kalin


RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it wants to avert war in the region but stands ready to respond with “all strength” following last week’s attacks on Saudi oil assets, telling Iran that the ball was now in its court.

The drone strike on oil pumping stations, which Riyadh said did not disrupt output or exports, was claimed by the Houthis, who have been battling a Saudi-led military coalition in a war in Yemen since 2015.

The head of the Houthis’ Supreme Revolutionary Committee, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, derided Riyadh’s call to convene Arab summits, saying in a Twitter post that they “only know how to support war and destruction”.

A Norwegian insurers’ report seen by Reuters said Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were “highly likely” to have facilitated the attack on vessels near the UAE’s Fujairah emirate, a main bunkering hub lying just outside the Strait of Hormuz.

SAUDI PRINCE CALLS POMPEO
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has dismissed the possibility of war erupting, saying Tehran did not want conflict and no country had the “illusion it can confront Iran”. This stance was echoed by the head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards on Sunday.

“We are not pursuing war but we are also not afraid of war,” Major General Hossein Salami was cited as saying by the semi-official news agency Tasnim.

Washington has tightened economic sanctions against Iran, trying to cut Tehran’s oil exports to zero, and beefed up the U.S. military presence in the Gulf in response to what it said were Iranian threats to United States troops and interests.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed regional developments, including efforts to strengthen security and stability, in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Saudi Media Ministry tweeted on Sunday.

“We want peace and stability in the region but we will not sit on our hands in light of the continuing Iranian attack,” Jubeir said. “The ball is in Iran’s court and it is up to Iran to determine what its fate will be.”

He said the crew of an Iranian oil tanker that had been towed to Saudi Arabia early this month after a request for help due to engine trouble were still in the kingdom receiving the “necessary care”. The crew are 24 Iranians and two Bangladeshis.

Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran are arch-adversaries in the Middle East, backing opposite sides in several regional wars. In a sign of the heightened tension, Exxon Mobil evacuated foreign staff from an oilfield in neighboring Iraq.

Bahrain on Saturday warned its citizens against travel to Iraq and Iran and asked those already there to return. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has issued an advisory to U.S. commercial airliners flying over the waters of the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to exercise caution.

Additional reporting by Ali Abdelaty in Cairo and Babak Dehghanpisheh in Geneva; Writing by Stephen Kalin and Ghaida Ghantous; Editing by Diane Craft and Raissa Kasolowsky

Trump, Saudi Arabia warn Iran against Middle East conflict

U.S. President Donald Trump issued a new threat to Tehran on Sunday, tweeting that a conflict would be the "official end" of Iran, as Saudi Arabia warned it stood ready to respond with "all strength" and said it was up to Iran to avoid war.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

Iran is not pursuing war: Revolutionary Guards chief
May 19, 2019

GENEVA (Reuters) - Iran is not pursuing war, the head of the elite Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday, according to the Fars news agency.
“The difference between us and them is that they are afraid of war and don’t have the will for it,” Major General Hossein Salami said.

Reporting By Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky

Iran is not pursuing war: Revolutionary Guards chief

Iran is not pursuing war, the head of the elite Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday, according to the Fars news agency.

www.reuters.com

 

[Khafee]

AP sources: Former CIA chief Brennan to brief Dems on Iran
By LISA MASCARO
an hour ago
19 May 2019

FILE - In this Feb. 9, 2016 file photo, CIA Director John Brennan participates in the Senate Intelligence Committee's hearing on worldwide threats, on Capitol Hill in Washington. House Democrats will hear from former CIA director Brennan about the situation in Iran amid concerns over the Trump administration’s actions in the region. An outspoken critic of President Donald Trump, Brennan has been invited to a private caucus meeting Tuesday, May 21, 2019. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — House Democrats will hear from former CIA Director John Brennan about the situation in Iran, inviting him to speak next week amid heightened concerns over the Trump administration’s sudden moves in the region.

Brennan, an outspoken critic of President Donald Trump, is scheduled to talk to House Democrats at a private weekly caucus meeting Tuesday, according to a Democratic aide and another person familiar with the private meeting. Both were granted anonymity to discuss the meeting.
The invitation to Brennan and Wendy Sherman, a former State Department official and top negotiator of the Iran nuclear deal, offers counterprogramming to the Trump administration’s closed-door briefing for lawmakers also planned for Tuesday on Capitol Hill. Democratic lawmakers are likely to attend both sessions.

The Trump administration recently sent an aircraft carrier and other military resources to the Persian Gulf region, and withdrew nonessential personnel from Iraq, raising alarm among Democrats and some Republicans on Capitol Hill over the possibility of a confrontation with Iran.
Trump in recent days has downplayed any potential for conflict. But questions remain about what prompted the actions, and many lawmakers have demanded more information.

Trump and Brennan have clashed openly, particularly over the issues surrounding the special counsel’s probe of Russian interference in the 2016 election. Brennan stepped down from the CIA in 2017.

The president last year said he was revoking the former spy chief’s security credentials after Brennan was critical of Trump’s interactions with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit in Helsinki. Top national security officials often retain their clearance after they have left an agency as a way to provide counsel to their successors. It’s unclear if Brennan actually lost his clearance.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had been asking the administration for a briefing for all lawmakers on the situation in Iran, but she said the request was initially rebuffed. The administration provided a classified briefing for leaders of both parties last week.

AP sources: Former CIA chief Brennan to brief Dems on Iran

WASHINGTON (AP) — House Democrats will hear from former CIA Director John Brennan about the situation in Iran, inviting him to speak next week amid heightened concerns over the Trump administration's sudden moves in the region.

apnews.com

 

[Khafee]

For Iranians, economic crisis looms larger than US tensions
By MEHDI FATTAHI and NASSER KARIMI
48 minutes ago
19 May 2019


In this Saturday, May 18, 2019 photo, a couple takes photos with bas reliefs of ancient Persian soldiers in an old neighborhood in downtown Tehran, Iran. The Associated Press spoke to a variety of people on Tehran’s streets recently, ranging from young and old, women wearing the all-encompassing black chador to those merely loosely covering their hair. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Across Iran’s capital, the talk always seems to come back to how things may get worse.

Battered by U.S. sanctions and its depreciating rial currency, Iran’s 80 million people struggle to buy meat, medicine and other staples of daily life. Now they wonder aloud about America’s intentions as it rushes an aircraft carrier and other forces to the region over a still-unexplained threat it perceives from Iran.

The Associated Press spoke to a variety of people on Tehran’s streets recently, ranging from young and old, women wearing the all-encompassing black chador to those loosely covering their hair.

Most say they believe a war will not come to the region, though they remain willing to defend their country. They think Iran should try to talk to the U.S. to help its anemic economy, even as they see President Donald Trump as an erratic and untrustworthy adversary.

“Trump is not predictable at all and one doesn’t know how to react to him and what is the right thing to do against him,” said Afra Hamedzadeh, a 20-year-old civil servant and university student. “Since he controls the global economy we are somehow left with few options.”

But opinions vary across Iran’s capital, Tehran, depending on whether you speak to someone coming out of Friday prayers, in the back of a shared taxi cab, or exiting the coffee shops popular with young people.

“If America could do anything, it would have done many things by now,” said the chador-wearing Zoherh Sadeghi, a 51-year-old housewife coming out of prayers. “It can’t do anything. It can’t do a damn thing.”

That’s an opinion shared by 35-year-old office worker Massumeh Izadpanah.

“When someone keeps trying to scare you it means that they think they are not yet ready for war. When someone really wants war it starts the war right away. Like when Iraq attacked us, all of a sudden bombs were dropped,” she said. “But right now America just says, ‘I’m coming,’ to scare Iran.”

A young nation, many across Iran were alive for its bloody 1980s war with Iraq, a conflict that began when dictator Saddam Hussein invaded and dragged on for eight years. That war, in which Saddam used chemical weapons and Iran launched human wave attacks, killed 1 million people.

Since Trump withdrew the U.S. from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers last year, state television increasingly has focused attention on that war’s wounded.

In Tehran’s southern Javadieh neighborhood, veteran Mohammad Ali Moghaddam said he was ready to fight again.

“I would encourage my three sons and grandsons to go to defend Iran too,” said Moghaddam, a 58-year-old welder.

Arezou Mirzaei, a37-year-old mother of two in central Tehran, is more worried.

“I think the government should do something to avoid war,” Mirzaei said. “If war was good, then Afghanistan and Iraq would not be the mess that we see on TV.”

Taxi driver Jafar Hadavand, 34, agrees.

“I think both sides will be losers if they fight each other,” Hadavand said. “I think there are wise people on both sides to advocate peace, not war.”
Still, many pointed to the economy, not the possible outbreak of war, as Iran’s major concern. Iran’s rial currency traded at 32,000 to $1 at the time of the 2015 nuclear deal. Now it is at 148,000, and many have seen their life’s savings wiped out.

Nationwide, the unemployment rate is 12 percent. For youth it’s even worse, with a quarter of all young people unemployed, according to Iran’s statistic center.

“The economic situation is very bad, very bad. Unemployment is very high, and those who had jobs have lost theirs,” said Sadeghi, the housewife. “Young people can’t find good jobs, or get married, or become independent.”

Sores Maleki, a 62-year-old retired accountant, said talks with the U.S. to loosen sanctions would help jumpstart Iran’s economy.

“We should go and talk to America with courage and strength. We are able to do that, others have done it,” Maleki said. “We can make concessions and win concessions. We have no other choice.”

But such negotiations will be difficult, said Reza Forghani, a 51-year-old civil servant. He said Iran needed to get the U.S. to “sign a very firm contract that they can’t escape and have to honor.” Otherwise, Iran should drop out of the nuclear deal.

“When someone refuses to keep promises and commitments, you can tolerate it a couple of times, but then certainly you can’t remain committed forever. You will react,” Forghani said. “So I don’t think we should remain committed to the deal until the end.”

Yet for Iran’s youth, many of whom celebrated the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal in the streets, the situation now feels more akin to a funeral. Many openly discuss their options to obtain a visa — any visa — to get abroad.

“Young people have a lot of stress and the future is unknown,” said Hamedzadeh, the 20-year-old civil servant. “The future is so unknown that you can’t plan. The only thing they can do is to somehow leave Iran and build a life abroad.”

In Iran, a plunging economy trumps fears of US confrontation

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Across Iran's capital, the talk always seems to come back to how things may get worse.

www.apnews.com

 

[Khafee]

Iran threat: UK special forces join US strike group in Persian Gulf as tensions mount
BRITISH SPECIAL FORCES have been flown into the Middle East as part of a secret contingency operation to counter potential Iranian attacks on UK merchant shipping transiting the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf.
By Marco Giannangeli
Sun, May 19, 2019

It follows a ratcheting of tension in the region, with the US deploying an aircraft carrier strike group and B-52 bombers to the Gulf in response to what it said were credible threats from Iranian forces. And last night one of the US’ most senior diplomats warned Iran not to underestimate President Trump’s resolve for military action. In Britain, the Foreign Office has warned British-Iranians not to travel to the country in case they are detained. Now two SBS teams have joined UK registered oil tankers transiting in the Persian Gulf south through the Strait of Hormuz, where they will be tasked with monitoring Iranian activity around the island of Qesham - home to Iranian naval gunboats. Both teams will collate information as the ships move south through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Gulf of Oman, where it is understood they will be airlifted off by Royal Navy Merlin helicopters operating out of Oman.

Just days ago four oil tankers were attacked with explosive devices south of the port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, regularly used by the Royal Navy as a crew change stop and logistics hub for its nuclear powered hunter killer submarines.

Military analysts believe the attacks were mounted by Iranian special forces to demonstrate how easy it would be for Tehran to close down the Strait of Hormuz and bring oil exports to a halt if Washington continues to threaten the Islamic Republic.

Britain and the US seemed to display a rare difference in policies over the middle east last week when the Pentagon publicly corrected a statement from Maj-Gen Chris Ghika, the UK’s military commander in the US-led mission against Islamic State, that “there’s been no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria”.

But sources later explained that Maj-Gen Ghika had not been briefed about the amount of new intelligence he could reveal.

British Special Forces have been sent to counter potential Iranian attacks on the UK (Image: Guy Channing/ DPL)

President Donald Trump sent a US aircraft carrier battle group to the Gulf (Image: GETTY)

And, despite not joining the US in quitting the now discredited Iran nuclear deal, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt confirmed that the UK “shared the same assessment of the heightened threat posed by Iran.”

Tehran’s regional stranglehold is based on its desire to build a “land bridge” connecting Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon in order to more easily support Hezbollah forces.

It also continues to sponsor terrorism in Europe, including a failed bomb plot at a conference of Iranian dissidents - attended by US diplomats -in Paris last year.

But differences within the US administration are also causing concern, with both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton accused of “writing cheques that President Trump won’t cash” with their strong anti-Iranian messages.

Last week the US commander-in-chief slammed as “fake news” reports that the US was poised to send 120,000 soldiers to counter Iranian aggression in the region.

Trump declared reports that the US was to send soldiers to Iran was "fake news" (Image: GETTY)

“Hopefully we're not going to have to plan for that. And if we did that, we'd send a hell of a lot more troops than that,” he said, adding: “I’m sure that Iran will want to talk soon.”

It caused some experts to suggest his open aversion to foreign entanglement and military conflict had sent a signal to Tehran that it had free rein in the region.

“Recent intelligence is real and the UK is concerned about it,” said regional analyst Kyle Orton.

“Tehran has moved from merely monitoring Western installations to an more active phase. We saw it play out on attacks on shipping this week. There’s no serious doubt that Iran was behind them. It’s a case of whether Iran will go back to asserting itself in the front line which is iraq.”
He said President Trump’s publicly-stated isolationism was emboldening Iran.

Crocker has warned Iran against underestimating Trump's willingness to launch a strike (Image: GETTY)

“Iran has very little restraint right now. It already has what it wants on the ground, and is already able to take cities in Iraq and southern Syria, even on Israel’s border,” he said.

“US policy has been to focus only on ISIS. Centcom (Coalition central command) said last year that if Iran wanted to take Eastern Syria, that would be okay.

“People in his administration realise he’s not going to do anything serious other than try to get what he calls a ‘better deal’. So Pompeo’s rhetoric can take him only so far.

“And there are those close to the Iranian regime who say one of the reasons Iran has acted at all against the Trump administration’s rhetorical escalations is to force him to show his hand. They’re calling his bluff.”

But seasoned US diplomat Amb Ryan Crocker warned that Iran should not underestimate Trump’s willingness to launch a military strike.

Iran threat: UK special forces join US strike group in Persian Gulf

BRITISH SPECIAL FORCES have been flown into the Middle East as part of a secret contingency operation to counter potential Iranian attacks on UK merchant shipping transiting the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Khafee]

U.S. guided-missile destroyers McFaul, Gonzalez enter Persian Gulf
May 17, 2019
By Allen Cone

This image shows the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul (bottom), dry cargo and ammunition ship USNS Alan Shepard (center) and the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge. They were deployed to the U.S. Fifth Fleet area of operations. Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Casey Moore/U.S. Navy

May 17 (UPI) -- Two Navy guided-missile destroyers, the USS McFaul and USS Gonzalez, have entered the Persian Gulf as the United States beefs up its military presence in the region amid increased tensions with Iran.

The ships traveled through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday afternoon without challenge from Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy, Pentagon defense officials confirmed to USNI News.

A U.S. defense official told The Wall Street Journal it was the "quietest transit we have seen in a long time,"

U.S. Central Command, which handles U.S. military interests in the Middle East, and Central and South Asia, did not provide details on the transit.
RELATED Iran says 'concrete action' needed to save nuclear deal

The USS McFaul and USS Gonzales are Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

The ships are joining increased presence of ships and aircraft in the Middle East. Vessels in the region comprise the Fifth Fleet.

The McFaul and Gonzales will be part of the Abraham Carrier Strike Group, which has been operating off the coast of Oman. The USS Kearsarge was off the coast of the United Arab Emirates near the entrance to the Persian Gulf.

And the USS Arlington amphibious transport dock ship and a Patriot surface-to-air missile battery are being moved to the Middle East. Also, four B-52 bombers have been sent to the region.

Earlier this week, the USS Abraham Lincoln Strike Group left the Mediterranean Sea and sailed through the Red Sea to the Gulf of Oman.

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan told a Senate Appropriations Defense subcommittee last week there was "very, very credible" intelligence that Iran was preparing to attack U.S. forces or interests in the region.

CENTCOM commander Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth McKenzie Jr. agreed.

"Let me be perfectly clear as I reinforce this point: The long-term, enduring, most significant threat to stability in the CENTCOM AOR is Iran and the Iranian regime's malign, hegemonistic ambitions across the theater and, indeed, globally," McKenzie said at a Foundation for Defense of Democracies event in Washington, D.C.

Tehran says the Islamic Republic stands ready to defend itself against any act of aggression but does not consider a war with the United States and its allies as "an option."

"I should say that we are not interested in the escalation of tensions in our region because if something goes wrong, everybody will lose -- including Iran, including the U.S., including all the countries in the region," Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations Majid Takht-e Ravanchi told American outlet National Public Radio. "We are not interested in war. We are not planning for a war. War is not an option for Iran."

But his nation needs "to be prepared for any action against our forces, against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Iran," he said.

"Therefore, we are vigilant. We are doing everything possible to lower the tension in the region. But unfortunately, there are certain people, both in Washington as well as in our region, who are interested to escalate the tension, who are interested to agitate the situation in the region, to provoke."

President Donald Trump, when asked Thursday whether the United States would be involved in a war Iran, told reporters: "I hope not."

On Wednesday, Trump posted on Twitter: "I'm sure that Iran will want to talk soon."

U.S. guided-missile destroyers McFaul, Gonzalez enter Persian Gulf - UPI.com

Two guided-missile destroyers, the USS McFaul and Gonzalez, have entered the Persian Gulf as the United States beefs up its military presence in the region amid increased tensions with Iran.

www.upi.com

 

[Falcon29]

This situation will grow in severity after Ramadan.
..
..

As we're speaking:


Not a good way to word things.

 

[Lieutenant]

This situation will grow in severity after Ramadan.
..
..

As we're speaking:


Not a good way to word things.

Trump style nothing different. He always spits it up plain and simple.

 

[Khafee]

This situation will grow in severity after Ramadan.
..
..

As we're speaking:


Not a good way to word things.

Mullah choose the wrong guy to mess with.

 

[Scorpion]

This situation will grow in severity after Ramadan.
..
..

As we're speaking:


Not a good way to word things.

Grab them by the p***y. ?

 

[Falcon29]

Trump style nothing different. He always spits it up plain and simple.

Yep, to him it is more personal and he will react emotionally. That is not good for the US political establishment which is going on a calculated course with its policy on Iran. That being heightened sanctions and sort of a containment. Israel prefers it like that as well. For Arabs, it can be beneficial if he gets emotional and decides to undergo military option against Iran.

Arabs need to capitalize on this situation, by seeking to unite all Arab nations and parties. As well as having an post war strategy.

 

[Falcon29]

Mullah choose the wrong guy to mess with.

Iran believes Trump does not seek more wars, and based off his campaign promises you can get that impression. However, Trump is emotional and takes these global affairs as personal ones so his position will be unpredictable. Iran and its allies are afraid of the US, they don't want to sacrifice their efforts/infrastructure in Arab nations. Firing a small mortar near the embassy in Baghdad shows that. At the same time, they can't sustain the sanction onslaught, especially when it comes to selling their oil. So we are headed on collision course, question is who takes first shot.

 

[Khafee]

Iran believes Trump does not seek more wars, and based off his campaign promises you can get that impression. However, Trump is emotional and takes these global affairs as personal ones so his position will be unpredictable. Iran and its allies are afraid of the US, they don't want to sacrifice their efforts/infrastructure in Arab nations. Firing a small mortar near the embassy in Baghdad shows that. At the same time, they can't sustain the sanction onslaught, especially when it comes to selling their oil. So we are headed on collision course, question is who takes first shot.

Mullah is chicken, they are nothing but full of hot air, they will blink before the 1st tomahawk fries them.

 

[Khafee]

Falih: Recent Attacks Haven’t Affected Us
Sunday, 19 May, 2019

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih

Asharq Al-Awsat

Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday that recent attacks on Saudi energy assets have not affected his country's oil output.

“Although it has not affected our supplies, such acts of terrorism are deplorable," Falih said. "They threaten uninterrupted supplies of energy to the world and put a global economy that is already facing headwinds at further risk."

Four commercial ships were sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates last Sunday, and two days later drones attacked oil installations west of the Saudi capital Riyadh.

Iran-backed Houthi militias have claimed the attack in Saudi Arabia.

Falih called on Saudi Arabia's partners to condemn the attacks.

He was speaking in Jeddah ahead of a ministerial panel meeting of top OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.

The minister recommended "gently" driving oil inventories down at a time of plentiful global supplies.

Asharq Al-Awsat | Explore World News Today

Stay up to date with world news through Asharq Al-Awsat. We provide you with the latest breaking world news to keep you informed on the global situation.

aawsat.com

 

[Scorpion]

Yep, to him it is more personal and he will react emotionally. That is not good for the US political establishment which is going on a calculated course with its policy on Iran. That being heightened sanctions and sort of a containment. Israel prefers it like that as well. For Arabs, it can be beneficial if he gets emotional and decides to undergo military option against Iran.

Arabs need to capitalize on this situation, by seeking to unite all Arab nations and parties. As well as having an post war strategy.

I do not think its in the interest of Saudi Arabia to overthrow to Mullah. Saudi Arabia knows that regime change will be a challenge to the Gulf States in terms of trade and investment, oil market, economy as a whole considering Iran manpower and strategic location. Iran has many untapped resources and if sanctions are to be lifted, Iran will be seen as a competitor despite the big gap in oil production. The best way to do it is to tighten the grip over the Mullahs nick to the point he cant breath. Else, divide Iran into small autonomous states based on ethnicity.