Post US withdrawl Afghanistan

[Khafee]

We seem to be having a lot of discussion on this topic, by derailing different threads. Pls discuss it here, and any more derailment of threads, I will just delete the posts.

Thanks!

@Armchair @ali razza @Cookie Monster @TsAr @Zulu @Zeeman @Counter-Errorist @Gripen9 @Scorpio @Mastankhan @War Historian @TomCat @Pakhtoon yum @Safri167 @safriz @Araz @Signalian @baqai @HardTalk @Crystal-Clear @Ghessan @Mingle @farok84 @Pinnacle @Blackbirdz! @Bkbiznyc @capricorn5192 @Caprxl @PWFI @MIRauf @Old boy @Thorough Pro and others White House tentatively agrees to leave roughly 4,000 troops in Afghanistan beyond 2020 election Jul 3, 2020 WASHINGTON — Top U.S. commanders believe they have tentative White House approval to leave just over 4,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan beyond November, delaying a full American pullout until after the presidential election. The plan, worked out at a meeting between Pentagon and White House officials late last month, would represent an about-face for President Donald Trump. He has pushed for a complete withdrawal of the 8,600 troops now in Afghanistan by the election, seeing a pullout as a much- needed foreign policy achievement as his reelection prospects have deteriorated. Trump had only recently told advisers that a full and rapid pullout could blunt the controversy over intelligence reports that Russia has paid militants to kill American service members, one official said. The president, who has made clear that he cares little about conditions inside Afghanistan, could still order a full withdrawal by November if he decides it would help him in the election, officials said. But Pentagon officials warned that a complete withdrawal over the next five months could plunge Afghanistan into crisis, dooming peace talks U.S. officials have been seeking to jump-start between the Afghan government and Taliban militants and worsening already surging violence. Officials also warned the White House that getting out completely by November would force them to leave substantial amounts of equipment behind.

 

[Armchair]

One of reason those F 16 negotiations going so long and long as pressler amendment scars still very deep on their minds @Gripen9 can u confirm as i heard LM vote is with us ?

I personally feel that after US withdrawal (by November I estimate), there will be little to nothing from the US to Pakistan. It's a transactional relationship. Get what you can now, LM will always be with you because they want to sell and make money. But bigger issues are at play... my 0.02.

 

[Armchair]

Agree sir, max chances to have actual equipment like specially F16 landed in Pakistan before any constraint is till American are stuck in Afghanistan, once they are gone, some XYZ senator resolution will be waiting to be imposed. We know Israel and india have good lobby there

Trump is now saying he wants the troops home from AFG before the elections in November...

 

[Zulu]

Actually totally opposite of it i see more balanced rewarding relation unlike past if we play our cards better .Discussed some points in AFG thread . Having good relations with US is beneficial for both countries

What are you basing your feeling that sanctions are around the corner?

 

[Armchair]

Pakistan also thought the same after Afghan war, but they eventually realized that America doesn't think the same. It seems Pak hasn't learned that lesson and will get dumped unceremoniously this time as well.

 

[Gripen9]

Actually totally opposite of it i see more balanced rewarding relation unlike past if we play our car better .Discussed some points in AFG thread . Having good relations with US is beneficial for both countries

Exactly. Pak needs to let unkil know that we want a strategic long term relationship. What we can provide in return what are they going to offer. It needs to be decoupled from India. I also foresee Pak becoming a go between US & China if things become really testy between the two heavy weights. but for that we need true statesman who have the foresight and country's best benefits at heart.

 

[Gripen9]

Pakistan also thought the same after Afghan war, but they eventually realized that America doesn't think the same. It seems Pak hasn't learned that lesson and will get dumped unceremoniously this time as well.

America also saw what happened when they disengaged hurriedly last time. They do not want a) Afghanistan to slide back into a lawless area for extremism to take hold again b) For Iran to fill that vacuum.

Last time they sanctioned us for nuclear violations under Pressler which was compunded by Musharraf's military coup. What is your rationale this time?

 

[Gripen9]

Exactly. Pak needs to let unkil know that we want a strategic long term relationship. What we can provide in return what are they going to offer. It needs to be decoupled from India. I also foresee Pak becoming a go between US & China if things become really testy between the two heavy weights. but for that we need true statesman who have the foresight and country's best benefits at heart.

Add to this, we need to realign with our GCC brothers to make sure we limit Irani influence in AFG post US withdrawal. Use it to our benefit.

 

[Armchair]

America also saw what happened when they disengaged hurriedly last time. They do not want a) Afghanistan to slide back into a lawless area for extremism to take hold again b) For Iran to fill that vacuum.

Last time they sanctioned us for nuclear violations under Pressler which was compunded by Musharraf's military coup. What is your rationale this time?

I think we haven't read the same history books (well I lived that era so I am a bit older than you perhaps) so conversation becomes futile.

 

[Gripen9]

I think we haven't read the same history books (well I lived that era so I am a bit older than you perhaps) so conversation becomes futile.

I lived through the same time period. Going off topic. But we can continue somewhere else. Would love to get your perspective.

 

[Zulu]

We lived that time too aap sy bus kuch saal hi aagy peechy hn gy but thanx for considering us teenagers after long time someone give us that complement love to know your inputs regarding this topic in some new thread

I think we haven't read the same history books (well I lived that era so I am a bit older than you perhaps) so conversation becomes futile.

 

[ali razza]

Sir, we are no more Non NATO ally.. status removed

when did that happen

 

[TsAr]

Pakistan also thought the same after Afghan war, but they eventually realized that America doesn't think the same. It seems Pak hasn't learned that lesson and will get dumped unceremoniously this time as well.

according to USA the whole issue was USSR, for them it was the mother of all evils, so when USSR broke up and pulled out of Afghanistan USA thought that they are done away from this region. At that time China was not in the equation. Looking at things today if USA would have known how significant this area would remain they would have left us and would have kept on engaging us. The 8 years of Democrats (Clinton Era) was the worst for Pakistan. Republicans have been more favorable to us.

 

[Waiting]

Sir, after leaving us on our own, America did a favour to us, they teached us a lesson, which, earlier, we failed to learn in the lap of america.

 

[Armchair]

Banking on US policy based on Dem or Republicans is not meaningful or realistic. US interest is now in strengthening India, and not making India weaker by supporting Pakistan. Pakistan's chance was in AFG. AFG ends by November, if Trump is to be believed, with rapid draw-dawn of troops underway as we speak.

These are basic equations that everyone understands except Pakistanis... just like 1990s, when everyone was telling PAF there are serious concerns and US will delink any time. Still they gave their own precious money for F-16s then got charged for parking as well as sanctions.

Again, anyone in DC will tell you US is now focused on India and delinking from Pakistan. Yet, again my Pakistani brothers will ignore these things and live in their fantasy land dreaming of America and make up some strange arguments.

While China invests in Pak's infrastructure, US invests in giving education scholarships so that more America loving people are created, who will jump off any cliff and believe anything that keeps them in that fantasy land.

Then a Pressler like moment will again be repeated (repeated many times, since 1965). And again the same elite will come up with half baked ideas to push forward an agenda that will somehow keep them linked to the country they admire.

And again after Pressler the Pakistanis just kept waiting and waiting and hoping the good americans would do as they dreamt of in their fantasy land. "We too want to serve your wonderful agenda, please look at us".

But again, like the wife that believes her cheating husband, the wife will cry and makeup and keep believing in that fantasy...

Never, ever will they understand that CPEC is a threat for America, a direct threat to their hegemony. That supporting Pakistan is against their interest, both in terms of protecting India, and because of CPEC. It is now in US and Indian interest (perhaps even Iran's) to destabilize Pakistan. To find some way to cut off CPEC through GB or Baluchistan.

They will not understand that it is traditional Western policy to use India against China. There are books written and many papers written about this policy going back 150 years. The thesis of the British was that China was too strong and too powerful to fight, and only by gaining India was it possible to break China. This was their successful strategy then, and it is now.

All that I have written is not necessary to write for anyone informed and educated, but needs to be written fruitlessly because many Pakistanis are so enamoured by the West that they have severe blind spots and unable to see anything outside what they want to see.