Post US withdrawl Afghanistan

[Safri167]

Banking on US policy based on Dem or Republicans is not meaningful or realistic. US interest is now in strengthening India, and not making India weaker by supporting Pakistan. Pakistan's chance was in AFG. AFG ends by November, if Trump is to be believed, with rapid draw-dawn of troops underway as we speak.

These are basic equations that everyone understands except Pakistanis... just like 1990s, when everyone was telling PAF there are serious concerns and US will delink any time. Still they gave their own precious money for F-16s then got charged for parking as well as sanctions.

Again, anyone in DC will tell you US is now focused on India and delinking from Pakistan. Yet, again my Pakistani brothers will ignore these things and live in their fantasy land dreaming of America and make up some strange arguments.

While China invests in Pak's infrastructure, US invests in giving education scholarships so that more America loving people are created, who will jump off any cliff and believe anything that keeps them in that fantasy land.

Then a Pressler like moment will again be repeated (repeated many times, since 1965). And again the same elite will come up with half baked ideas to push forward an agenda that will somehow keep them linked to the country they admire.

And again after Pressler the Pakistanis just kept waiting and waiting and hoping the good americans would do as they dreamt of in their fantasy land. "We too want to serve your wonderful agenda, please look at us".

But again, like the wife that believes her cheating husband, the wife will cry and makeup and keep believing in that fantasy...

Never, ever will they understand that CPEC is a threat for America, a direct threat to their hegemony. That supporting Pakistan is against their interest, both in terms of protecting India, and because of CPEC. It is now in US and Indian interest (perhaps even Iran's) to destabilize Pakistan. To find some way to cut off CPEC through GB or Baluchistan.

They will not understand that it is traditional Western policy to use India against China. There are books written and many papers written about this policy going back 150 years. The thesis of the British was that China was too strong and too powerful to fight, and only by gaining India was it possible to break China. This was their successful strategy then, and it is now.

All that I have written is not necessary to write for anyone informed and educated, but needs to be written fruitlessly because many Pakistanis are so enamoured by the West that they have severe blind spots and unable to see anything outside what they want to see.

(+1) for that sir.
The problem lies with our ruling elite. They have a habit of sitting in Americans laps. They will sell their country for their personal benefits.

 

[Armchair]

US is not going to leave Pakistan as thekedar in AFG and keep funding the PA. Any more than US left Iraq and left Iran the thekedar that it kept funding.

US didn't keep funding Laos or Cambodia after it left Vietnam. These are strange thekedari type arguments that are truly unique to the desi mindest (whether India, Pakistan or Bangladesh). Again, truly strange and unique logics that Pakistanis will find to hope and dream that the US will give them some blessings, some love.

But the thekedar dream was there too after Soviet withdrawal from AFG. How did the thekedari go after that? Why didn't thekedar get his paltry salary?

We want to weave a thekedari fantasy with our mind, which is thinking of all kinds of schemes to dream up our loving relation with America. We dream and hope for it, no matter how fantastic that dream and fantasy. It is like a bollywood drama.

But America's mind is not socialized by Bollywood.

MAD will not stop India from acting. They may just call Pakistani bluff like 26th Feb. Did Pakistan retaliate with nuclear winter? That was a direct conventional attack.

Let alone when things will become more muddy - giant CIA funds to destabilize Pakistan in a country fully infiltrated at every level by America's lovers. Pak establishment is so blind that forget these bigger threats - even the threat posed by the Agha Khanis, who are acting as proxies of the British and fully focusing on establishing an Agha khani majority in areas in GB as well as certain parts of AFG. You can't even stop them how will you stop the Indians or the Americans?

Wait, how will you even think of stopping the Americans when your fantasy is to work for them as a thekedar?

Discussions of basic logic are never needed between educated and informed people. They are only needed when we are blinded due to certain other factors and cannot do the basic calculus. This is why this is my last post on this subject and thread, as the condition is not fixable by stating the basic logic.

 

[Zulu]

@Safri167 lu bhai aap ny kahaa hum ny +1 kar diyaa

@Counter-Errorist I always said indian missed that chance in 2015-16 when they heard of US-Taliban talks.They should consider it their last chance as that time with help of Ashraf ghani govt+some hired hands (common in AFG culture if u rem Hazrat Ali militia in torabora ) they can launch an offensive from afg side GB with 20k plus enough to disrupt PA plans but endians missed that opportunity same like they spent 3 billion in AFG but never committed to sent any ground forces unlike many NATO countries which hurt t their interest in long run .Must be some psychological after effects of failed 1987 Sri lankan ground operation

 

[Counter-Errorist]

@Counter-Errorist I always said indian missed that chance in 2015-16 when they heard of US-Taliban talks.They should consider it their last chance as that time with help of Ashraf ghani govt+some hired hands (common in AFG culture if u rem Hazrat Ali militia in torabora ) they can launch an offensive from afg side GB with 20k plus enough to disrupt PA plans but endians missed that opportunity same like they spent 3 billion in AFG but never committed to sent any ground forces unlike many NATO countries which hurt t their interest in long run .Must be some psychological after effects of failed 1987 Sri alnkan ground operation

20K+ is a full on invasion. Afghanistan is currently under American occupation. America will look either wholly complicit or wholly incompetent. No way they'll allow that to happen while they're still there.

Throwing money around isn't sufficient for such an adventure. That's the extent of India's proxy game. They have no common threads or experience to correctly wield a proxy force of that magnitude.

Anyone even agreeing to listen to that proposal knows full well (by first hand experience) that PA will absolutely crush that force. A conventional invasion by ill-equipped, ill-trained ragtag warriors won't see daylight. Our intelligence apparatus will see that elephant trumpeting around miles away.

 

[Zulu]

I said back in 2015-16 and i mention that specific timeline for reason leave rest of discussion for some other proper thread for some proper time .Still waiting someone release pics of those Egyptian mirages in our skies

20K+ is a full on invasion. Afghanistan is currently under American occupation. America will look either wholly complicit or wholly incompetent. No way they'll allow that to happen while they're still there.

Throwing money around isn't sufficient for such an adventure. That's the extent of India's proxy game. They have no common threads or experience to correctly wield a proxy force of that magnitude.

Anyone even agreeing to listen to that proposal knows full well (by first hand experience) that PA will absolutely crush that force. A conventional invasion by ill-equipped, ill-trained ragtag warriors won't see daylight. Our intelligence apparatus will see that elephant trumpeting around miles away.

 

[Safri167]

@Safri167 lu bhai aap ny kahaa hum ny +1 kar diyaa

Thank you boss

 

[Gripen9]

US is not leaving Afghanistan completely. It is going to stay there in my opinion, with a reduced force. It is creating conditions in favor for that. That is why they cannot completely alienate Pakistan.

Plus what would US gain by alienating us?

 

[Zulu]

@Gripen9 @AliYusuf As both of u said US not going to leave AFG completely what if i told u thats the corner stone of whole agreement so for argument sake what new scenarios will emerge ? if any of u start an new thread regarding this kindly rem to tag me

 

[Khafee]

Plus what would US gain by alienating us?

Make Pak 200% anti-US, and push it 90% in to the the Chinese camp. Sounds like a plan!

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

I repeat, ANNEXATION OF AFGHANISTAN is the way forward.

 

[Khafee]

I repeat, ANNEXATION OF AFGHANISTAN is the way forward.

While I agree with you, tactically it has to be in phases. Would you care to list them?

 

[Cookie Monster]

While I agree with you, tactically it has to be in phases. Would you care to list them?

IMO...the exit of US from Afghanistan can be used as an opportunity to convince US.

If US can be convinced then the western European countries, Japan, Australia and the likes won't pose a problem. China would be very easy to convince...and once US and China are onboard the "annexation" part wouldn't invite sanctions or any other retaliation.

US can be convinced by providing them assurances that Pakistan would take over the role of securing Afghanistan militarily...providing the same peace and stability that the western forces were supposed to do...and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a hotbed of ISIS and other such militant groups that would pose a threat to US. As a bonus "countering Iran" thing can be used. Iran would definitely try to gain influence after US leaves...and it would be a highly unfavorable outcome for the US. They would much rather prefer dealing with Pakistan than Iran...when it comes to Afghanistan.

For good measure...bribe US and China by throwing their companies billions in contracts. For US...throw some contracts for mining the mineral wealth of Afghanistan...and for China infrastructure development contracts and potentially even an extension of CPEC. This is not ideal...but it's just the way the world works. Plus knowing Trump...he would love that.

It would be even harder to convince the myriad of militant groups that make up Afghan Taliban...and other influential/powerful warlords, government officials, etc. to agree to a union with Pakistan. The current Afghan government and other elements of the northern alliance will definitely be against it. However they have little power on the ground...after the US exit. So if US ends up agreeing to that annexation than the current Afghan government/Northern Alliance would lose its only major supporter and would be easily discarded. In order to convince the Afghan Taliban and other key influential ppl...Pak will have to utilize its tribal links, religion, bribery, and it would be necessary to throw them a bone of political power in various forms.

^all that just to get the annexation part right in the eyes of the world(and Afghans themselves)...so Pak is not seen as an "invader" or "conqueror". We have seen what happens when armies march in to Afghanistan as conquerors...they just get bogged down.

Once that part is done...where it is a "union" rather than an "invasion"...then comes the challenge of first securing Afghanistan militarily. Afghan military would have to be demoted. I don't mean it in an offensive way...but rather more objectively...
...Afghan military is unprofessional...and can't be trusted. This however doesn't mean that they aren't useful. They would certainly have a treasure trove of information...like intelligence on the ongoings in their country, detailed maps, etc. Pak military with its main focus towards the east...doesn't have enough numbers to be deployed in a sizable manner for "peacekeeping" in much of this newly gained and much troubled territory. Certainly not all Afghans...and not all factions of militants would be happy with such a union with Pak...and would cause problems.
So perhaps...Afghan military can be used as a policing force...
...they would be initially downgraded from being the state army for reasons listed above(unprofessional and untrustworthy)...disbanding them outright would cause more joblessness and hatred(towards Pak) among them...which can be a disaster bcuz then there would be thousands of essentially militants who would want to return to the status quo(separate Afghanistan). So perhaps they can be made to work under or with FC?

This wouldn't be ideal...but it would buy time initially. PA can probably use its reserve force...to serve as the "superiors" in different areas of these FC type of Afghan army...carefully evaluating their training, performance, and loyalties. Over time...the Afghan Army personnel that fit the criteria in training(required in PA) and whose loyalties are with their new united country...can be recruited to PA...
...bcuz for an expanded country a bigger army would be needed. The ones that don't fit that criteria but are still loyal(to this new country) can be made part of the police force. The ones that are not loyal can just be either fired or punished...depending on if they have done something treasonous or not.

While all of those military challenges are being solved...simultaneously there would be enormous challenges on the economic front as well. It would take decades of hard work to bring economic prosperity to both Afg/Pak. Especially with this "union"...INITIALLY it would drain Pak's resources a lot more than Pak would gain from annexing Afghanistan. However in the long run I think it would be far more beneficial for both Afghanistan and Pakistan...and their ppl if both the countries united.

 

[Khafee]

IMO...the exit of US from Afghanistan can be used as an opportunity to convince US.

If US can be convinced then the western European countries, Japan, Australia and the likes won't pose a problem. China would be very easy to convince...and once US and China are onboard the "annexation" part wouldn't invite sanctions or any other retaliation.

US can be convinced by providing them assurances that Pakistan would take over the role of securing Afghanistan militarily...providing the same peace and stability that the western forces were supposed to do...and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a hotbed of ISIS and other such militant groups that would pose a threat to US. As a bonus "countering Iran" thing can be used. Iran would definitely try to gain influence after US leaves...and it would be a highly unfavorable outcome for the US. They would much rather prefer dealing with Pakistan than Iran...when it comes to Afghanistan.

For good measure...bribe US and China by throwing their companies billions in contracts. For US...throw some contracts for mining the mineral wealth of Afghanistan...and for China infrastructure development contracts and potentially even an extension of CPEC. This is not ideal...but it's just the way the world works. Plus knowing Trump...he would love that.

It would be even harder to convince the myriad of militant groups that make up Afghan Taliban...and other influential/powerful warlords, government officials, etc. to agree to a union with Pakistan. The current Afghan government and other elements of the northern alliance will definitely be against it. However they have little power on the ground...after the US exit. So if US ends up agreeing to that annexation than the current Afghan government/Northern Alliance would lose its only major supporter and would be easily discarded. In order to convince the Afghan Taliban and other key influential ppl...Pak will have to utilize its tribal links, religion, bribery, and it would be necessary to throw them a bone of political power in various forms.

^all that just to get the annexation part right in the eyes of the world(and Afghans themselves)...so Pak is not seen as an "invader" or "conqueror". We have seen what happens when armies march in to Afghanistan as conquerors...they just get bogged down.

Once that part is done...where it is a "union" rather than an "invasion"...then comes the challenge of first securing Afghanistan militarily. Afghan military would have to be demoted. I don't mean it in an offensive way...but rather more objectively...
...Afghan military is unprofessional...and can't be trusted. This however doesn't mean that they aren't useful. They would certainly have a treasure trove of information...like intelligence on the ongoings in their country, detailed maps, etc. Pak military with its main focus towards the east...doesn't have enough numbers to be deployed in a sizable manner for "peacekeeping" in much of this newly gained and much troubled territory. Certainly not all Afghans...and not all factions of militants would be happy with such a union with Pak...and would cause problems.
So perhaps...Afghan military can be used as a policing force...
...they would be initially downgraded from being the state army for reasons listed above(unprofessional and untrustworthy)...disbanding them outright would cause more joblessness and hatred(towards Pak) among them...which can be a disaster bcuz then there would be thousands of essentially militants who would want to return to the status quo(separate Afghanistan). So perhaps they can be made to work under or with FC?

This wouldn't be ideal...but it would buy time initially. PA can probably use its reserve force...to serve as the "superiors" in different areas of these FC type of Afghan army...carefully evaluating their training, performance, and loyalties. Over time...the Afghan Army personnel that fit the criteria in training(required in PA) and their loyalties are with their new united country...can be recruited to PA...
...bcuz for an expanded country a bigger army would be needed. The ones that don't fit that criteria but are still loyal(to this new country) can be made part of the police force. The ones that are not loyal can just be either fired or punished...depending on if they have done something treasonous or not.

While all of those military challenges are being solved...simultaneously there would be enormous challenges on the economic front as well. It would take decades of hard work to bring economic prosperity to both Afg/Pak. Especially with this "union"...INITIALLY it would drain Pak's resources a lot more than Pak would gain from annexing Afghanistan. However in the long run I think it would be far more beneficial for both Afghanistan and Pakistan...and their ppl if both the countries united.

You deserve more than a cokkie, for your in depth reply. @Signalian Could you add on to this?

 

[Cookie Monster]

You deserve more than a cokkie, for your in depth reply. @Signalian Could you add on to this?

Lol and I was trying to keep it short...since it's off topic in this thread
That's why I just cut off the economic challenges part and didn't even bother listing anything.

 

[Khafee]

Lol and I was trying to keep it short...since it's off topic in this thread
That's why I just cut off the economic challenges part and didn't even bother listing anything.

Start a new thread.