Post US withdrawl Afghanistan | Page 3 | World Defense

Post US withdrawl Afghanistan

Safri167

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Lol and I was trying to keep it short...since it's off topic in this thread ROFL
That's why I just cut off the economic challenges part and didn't even bother listing anything.
Why would US trust us? They know we have moved to Chinese camp.
 

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Why would US trust us? They know we have moved to Chinese camp.
The world is not black and white. If US wanted to be completely anti Pak...they could've done that long ago and would've continued doing so.

After the US exits from Afghanistan...some things very likely to happen are listed below...
- Afghanistan descending into chaos with multiple factions vying for power(which is what happened after USSR's exit and US exit from Iraq).
- Other countries including Iran and Pakistan backing certain factions and trying to get them in power so they will have a government that is more under their control.
- Other countries keeping the militant factions trained and funded to serve as anti state actors(like for example Iran funding Houthis). Or different militias and warlords would band together and fund their operations with the opium that's grown in massive quantities in Afghanistan(like ISIS does with oil)...with their goal to seize power.

^the above is a very likely scenario.

So wouldn't it be better to work with Pakistan instead? Have a more stable Afghanistan that doesn't breed militants nor falls under Iranian influence?
Given that Pak has experience in fighting insurgencies and has tribal links with Afghanistan...along with some sway over Afghan Taliban...I'd say Pak is probably best suited country in the region. Moreover Pak/US have a history of working with each other...it had its ups and downs...but still workable.
 

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The world is not black and white. If US wanted to be completely anti Pak...they could've done that long ago and would've continued doing so.

After the US exits from Afghanistan...some things very likely to happen are listed below...
- Afghanistan descending into chaos with multiple factions vying for power(which is what happened after USSR's exit and US exit from Iraq).
- Other countries including Iran and Pakistan backing certain factions and trying to get them in power so they will have a government that is more under their control.
- Other countries keeping the militant factions trained and funded to serve as anti state actors(like for example Iran funding Houthis). Or different militias and warlords would band together and fund their operations with the opium that's grown in massive quantities in Afghanistan(like ISIS does with oil)...with their goal to seize power.

^the above is a very likely scenario.

So wouldn't it be better to work with Pakistan instead? Have a more stable Afghanistan that doesn't breed militants nor falls under Iranian influence?
Given that Pak has experience in fighting insurgencies and has tribal links with Afghanistan...along with some sway over Afghan Taliban...I'd say Pak is probably best suited country in the region. Moreover Pak/US have a history of working with each other...it had its ups and downs...but still workable.
An unstable Afghanistan is in the benefit of US/India nexus.
A stable Afghanistan is in the benefit of Pakistan.
Why are we fencing our border of Afghanistan and Iran?
The day Afghanistan is stable, everyone knows what we will do.
And BTW in the war on terror, we lost the most perhaps more than Afghanistan.
 

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You deserve more than a cokkie, for your in depth reply. @Signalian Could you add on to this?
I wonder whyPakistani establishment built te fence to separate Afghanistan from Pakistan. I would suggest that gents suggesting annexation of Afghanistan should look at the hostory of Afghanistan and NO ONE has so far in 200 years been able to annex/conquer it . Bhai please stop this "Aa bail mujhe Maar" plan and keep as far away from Afghanisgan as is possible. USSR tried and did not succeed , the US is hankering to get away as quickly as it can, and India merely lost 3 billion and wisely did not enter. 0lease leave afghanisitan to its people and walk away.
A
 

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I wonder whyPakistani establishment built te fence to separate Afghanistan from Pakistan. I would suggest that gents suggesting annexation of Afghanistan should look at the hostory of Afghanistan and NO ONE has so far in 200 years been able to annex/conquer it . Bhai please stop this "Aa bail mujhe Maar" plan and keep as far away from Afghanisgan as is possible. USSR tried and did not succeed , the US is hankering to get away as quickly as it can, and India merely lost 3 billion and wisely did not enter. 0lease leave afghanisitan to its people and walk away.
A
That is not doable, if a vacum is left, IRAN the pariah of the world will take full advantage, and will make life a living hell for Paksitanis. Please get out of this passive mindset. Peace is not handed on a platter, it has to be won through blood and sweat.
 

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That is not doable, if a vacum is left, IRAN the pariah of the world will take full advantage, and will make life a living hell for Paksitanis. Please get out of this passive mindset. Peace is not handed on a platter, it has to be won through blood and sweat.
Sir,
We are sweating and bleeding for last 20 years now. We have lived through the life of horror for the war we had nothing to do with. The day when there was no blast, felt abnormal.
Yes we can not leave unstable Afghanistan.
Perhaps the best way would be to support The Taliban govt. Keep them on our side and don't abandon them as last time we did.
And then if they agrees to Azad kashmir model then it can be planned.
 

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That is not doable, if a vacum is left, IRAN the pariah of the world will take full advantage, and will make life a living hell for Paksitanis. Please get out of this passive mindset. Peace is not handed on a platter, it has to be won through blood and sweat.
Sir @Khafee We have to look forward not only annexation of afghan territory but also a union treaty with the central asian states. And a revival of Timurid state of middle ages. That will give us a rise of phoenix.otherwise we will face same miserable period and our next generation too.if we will be successful in signing a union treaty with central asian states then we can be rise as a major world player not a regional one. And the resources of all these 7 states will put us all on high speed track of the progress and development. We can achieve a chinese level progress in 1.5 decade if we made this union possible. All type of resources will be in this union states speed up the progress and put breaks on imports of energy, food and machinery items. These states will become independent from all world powers in a decade and half.
And this area will rise again like the Timurid times.
But for that union we have to face all big three russo, sino,american friction against this treaty. Because these three are exploiting this region since WW 1. So they will not let us go out of their influence.
But we have to make it possible. We have to win confidence of our brother and make sure that they will get their share in progress, power and respect. That the only way to tackle india iran alliance. And remind GCC of our presence at gateway of world most busy energy hub.Thanks.
 

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An unstable Afghanistan is in the benefit of US/India nexus.
A stable Afghanistan is in the benefit of Pakistan.
Why are we fencing our border of Afghanistan and Iran?
The day Afghanistan is stable, everyone knows what we will do.
And BTW in the war on terror, we lost the most perhaps more than Afghanistan.
An unstable Afghanistan maybe in the interest of India...but no longer is it in interest of US(at least not directly).

In case of India...
...for India to turn Afghanistan into a threat against Pak...they can't accomplish it by having an economically broke Afghanistan suffering a civil war...with no sense of a government or stability. Maximum amount of damage they can hope to do with that would be a few terrorist attacks a year at best. Fencing of border, installing sensors, using drones for surveillance, and FC patrols would mitigate most of that.
However these terrorist attacks every now and then from Afghanistan isn't the goal of India...it never was(they can do that kind of stuff from their own border with Pak). The whole time their goal has been to prop up Afghanistan against Pakistan as a country(a fully functioning country)...
...so that it poses enough of a threat for Pak to divert its military to the western front... effectively creating two fronts for Pak. So an unstable Afghanistan wouldn't be of much use to India. The only silver lining would be that if Afghanistan devolves into a civil war...at least Pak backed faction hasn't won.

For India to "succeed" in their Afghan strategy, they would have to make sure that the faction they are backing, wins...in such a significant manner that they can be in power. Only through this scenario does India benefit...and through this US indirectly benefits(by diverting Pak's attention away from India...India would be free to focus on China).

Now consider the spectacular failure of India backed factions over the past few decades. Then consider how much power Afghan Taliban hold on the ground(who are pro Pak). With that u can see how long it will take India to achieve its "best case scenario"...and that's only if everything goes India's way. The scales would have to literally tilt the other way for a while during the civil war.

During this whole time...Afghanistan would continue to serve as the perfect place for extremist anti US militias(like ISIS, Al-Qaeda, etc). So if after spending billions of dollars and thousands of casualties of US soldiers...imagine if there is another terrorist attack in US...
...how would that make the US government look in front of its ppl? How would they be able to call WoT and the end of this Afghan war a victory? How would they justify all the exorbitant costs of all this? Instead of looking stupid...it is more in their direct interest to have a stable Afganistan(preferably not under Iran's influence).
 
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2020 is like T-20 match for Pakistan military,smash and grab. I hope they get to score as much as they can ❤️
 

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this is going to happen one day may be not in our life time as this has been the dream of pakistan's deep state for decades now
Dream of Pak's deep state? Just curious as to what makes u say that?

It's the Pak's deep state that wants no part in that mess. They want a Pak friendly or puppet government(whichever possible) in Afghanistan...so as to not have the possibility of another hostile border...but that's about it. I wouldn't blame them...it is a mess...
...but from what I can tell...this "annexation" or "union" is only a dream of fanboys like me...while Pak's deep state is uninterested.
 

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Dream of Pak's deep state? Just curious as to what makes u say that?

From what I can tell...it's that Pak's deep state wants no part in that mess. They want a Pak friendly or puppet government in Afghanistan...so as to not have the possibility of another hostile border...but that's about it. I wouldn't blame them...it is a mess...
...but from what I can tell...this "annexation" or "union" is only a dream of fanboys like me...while Pak's deep state is uninterested.
gen zia used to say that afghanistan is pakistan's fifth province.
 

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Sir, after leaving us on our own, America did a favour to us, they teached us a lesson, which, earlier, we failed to learn in the lap of america.

Hi,

We never learnt that America does not like 'Lap Dogs" and yet we acted like one one more time.

Dont blame america for our screw ups.
 

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That is not doable, if a vacum is left, IRAN the pariah of the world will take full advantage, and will make life a living hell for Paksitanis. Please get out of this passive mindset. Peace is not handed on a platter, it has to be won through blood and sweat.
Chalo aisa he sahi. But let me elaborate.
Scenario 1. You get in to Afganistan . Your requirement will be 100K soldiers and what will you achieve. You alienate the Taliban and the Pushtuns and they start struggling against your forces. India steps in with a propaganda warfare with the famous line of the Punjabis having no respect for the Pushtons. Before you know it you have an uprising in Afghanistan against you and also unrest in the PK. Instead of embroiling the Indians into a two front war you will have gotten yourself involved in one. I Do not think personally that interference from PA would be appreciated in any quarter in Afghanistan.
Scenario B. You get the Taliban to form government in the pushtun controlled area of Afghanistan and leave the NA areas near Afghanistan for the moment. Whether this is a coalition governement or Taliban govtt needs to be seen. You will have a relatively pliant government that will atleast consider your arguments for good governance. Being land locked they will need the PA/Pakistan help with supply of grain and other commodities. The Afghans in Pakistan can then be slowly "repatriated" which will lighten the burden on our exchequer. If you don't touch the NA and leave them to fester in their own areas, possibilities are.
A. They will live there with the support of Iran. As your issues with Iran resolve(relatively at least) you MAY BE able to instigqte the Afghans to accept the NA in a power sharing formula . The best solution is to get involved in the road into CA where the afghans can provide the manpower and once through to Pakistan it can be linked to CPEC. This seems tocbe the only way to prosperity in Afghanistan.
B. To be able to control the Afghan pushtons they will have to attack the Pushtons. If you look at their fighting modalities they will have to do a frontal attack which they have never been able to do. This will invariably fail and they will have to sort it out with the Pushtons or be destroyed.
In short I dont see any situation where you will meddle with Afghans and come out on top with a viable solution.
The Afghans need to be left to find their own solution and NA will eventually have to find a solution by talking. Even if they want to fight they dont command enough strength to control Afghanistan on their own. There may be other ways in which Iran can be nudged into seeing reason.
A
 
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