Post US withdrawl Afghanistan

[Pakhtoon yum]

Carrot or Stick. They choose. PA+AT they wont have a lot of choice IA.

That is very true because people usually lean towards the side that is more powerful.

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

See this is why these areas would be acid cleaned. AND once they hear of a clean up ops, they will run all on thier own. PA+Fc on one side and AT on the other. Have fun!

AT have attacked those places in recent years and took out alot of the bad that was present there but alot more needs to be done.

The largest problem right now is not any other country but the farsiban government of Kabul. Its already squealing like a pig with America leaving. Imagine how much harder they will cry when Pakistan starts this OP. Unless the people in charge are given some sort of lucrative, under the table initiative. Politics are dirty and a politician will even sell his family for the right price.

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

Sir @Khafee We have to look forward not only annexation of afghan territory but also a union treaty with the central asian states. And a revival of Timurid state of middle ages. That will give us a rise of phoenix.otherwise we will face same miserable period and our next generation too.if we will be successful in signing a union treaty with central asian states then we can be rise as a major world player not a regional one. And the resources of all these 7 states will put us all on high speed track of the progress and development. We can achieve a chinese level progress in 1.5 decade if we made this union possible. All type of resources will be in this union states speed up the progress and put breaks on imports of energy, food and machinery items. These states will become independent from all world powers in a decade and half.
And this area will rise again like the Timurid times.
But for that union we have to face all big three russo, sino,american friction against this treaty. Because these three are exploiting this region since WW 1. So they will not let us go out of their influence.
But we have to make it possible. We have to win confidence of our brother and make sure that they will get their share in progress, power and respect. That the only way to tackle india iran alliance. And remind GCC of our presence at gateway of world most busy energy hub.Thanks.

Issue with CA states is Russian. It still thinks it's the soviet union and has an iron grip on Kazakhstan and then it gets weaker the further it comes south.

Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is easy picking but needs Afghanistan first. I mean it's not that we are being imperialistic or anything but its beneficial for everyone. Most of our culture is linked to CA (farghana) anyways and they will have access to the sea to export their natural resources, while have excess to a large talented population. Not to mention the amount of security that they will get by becoming a nuclear power and a nation with one of the most powerful/war hardened army. It's a win win for the people of all these counties.

 

[Khafee]

Issue with CA states is Russian. It still thinks it's the soviet union and has an iron grip on Kazakhstan and then it gets weaker the further it comes south.

Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is easy picking but needs Afghanistan first. I mean it's not that we are being imperialistic or anything but its beneficial for everyone. Most of our culture is linked to CA (farghana) anyways and they will have access to the sea to export their natural resources, while have excess to a large talented population. Not to mention the amount of security that they will get by becoming a nuclear power and a nation with one of the most powerful/war hardened army. It's a win win for the people of all these counties.

With CIS what they need is safe passage to Gwadar, and Pak needs to increase its exports to them.

 

[Khafee]

AT have attacked those places in recent years and took out alot of the bad that was present there but alot more needs to be done.

The largest problem right now is not any other country but the farsiban government of Kabul. Its already squealing like a pig with America leaving. Imagine how much harder they will cry when Pakistan starts this OP. Unless the people in charge are given some sort of lucrative, under the table initiative. Politics are dirty and a politician will even sell his family for the right price.

This particular incident didn't happen out of the blue, it was a msg to India.

Taliban Target Key Afghan Base on Eve of Peace Talks (Published 2019)

The major attack comes as American and Taliban negotiators prepared to resume peace talks in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday after a two-day recess.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

This particular incident didn't happen out of the blue, it was a msg to India.

Taliban Target Key Afghan Base on Eve of Peace Talks (Published 2019)

The major attack comes as American and Taliban negotiators prepared to resume peace talks in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday after a two-day recess.

www.nytimes.com

This is the perfect time, everyone is busy with their own mess.

India with china and Nepal

Iran with its mess that it created(spread too thin)

US with domestic problems/Corona/withdrawal

EU with corona and the economic crisis/Libya

And so on

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

With CIS what they need is safe passage to Gwadar, and Pak needs to increase its exports to them.

They have very bad people as leaders. More like a mafia that rules the people in those countries, seated by Moscow.

 

[Khafee]

They have very bad people as leaders. More like a mafia that rules the people in those countries, seated by Moscow.

Best to have a free trade agreement favoring Pak in return for access to Gawadar

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

Best to have a free trade agreement favoring Pak in return for access to Gawadar

True, it will take a few years to fully get control of Afghanistan. It's not wise to open up more issues.

 

[Blackbirdz!]

Actually totally opposite of it i see more balanced rewarding relation unlike past if we play our cards better .Discussed some points in AFG thread . Having good relations with US is beneficial for both countries

is this your wishful thinking or realistic analysis.........in both cases explain in detail why u think that way.

 

[Cookie Monster]

MAD will not stop India from acting. They may just call Pakistani bluff like 26th Feb. Did Pakistan retaliate with nuclear winter? That was a direct conventional attack.

I can't believe u out of all ppl are saying that...
...u fell for the Indian propaganda. Coming from Indians I expect such things...but u r generally a well informed person not blinded by the same crap propaganda that's constantly shown to Indians.

The purpose of nuclear deterrence...not just by Pak but ALL countries that have nukes...is to serve as a "contingency".

US/USSR indirectly engaged each other...had the cuban missile crisis...other incidents occurred that could've been mistaken for a nuclear strike...
...yet neither launched their nukes at each other. The reason is that they are not the first thing u respond with. Nukes are to ensure that no scenario exists where ur enemy can win and walk away from a conflict. So if US was completely on the brink of defeat and destroyed...so would USSR(via nuclear strikes) and vice versa.
Same goes for China/India...in the event they have a war...and India is utterly destroyed even if through conventional means...they can retaliate and deal massive damage to China with their nukes. Same thing applies to US/China war...and India/Pak war.

As in no scenario exists where ur enemy can completely destroy u(whether with nukes or conventionally) and walk away victorious...
...that is why it is called MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION.

However that doesn't mean that u fire the nukes right after the first bullet is fired...bcuz again...that would invite MAD(other side using their nukes in response). Nukes only become viable...when u have nothing to lose anyways(everything is lost)...so u might as well take ur enemy down with u. That's why Pak/India...or India/China or any such nuclear armed rivals continue to build up a conventional capability. If nukes were the first answer to anything and everything...then why even bother with building the conventional war fighting capabilities? With conventional war fighting capability...one hopes that it wouldn't come to MAD...since that's the last thing anyone wants.

Did Feb events warrant the use of nukes? No Pak is capable enough to ward off India in any such attempts(as the record shows). Nothing has changed...no nuclear bluff has been called...the response would've been the same(conventional) prior to the Feb events...and it will be the same in the future for any such Indian attempts.

Don't believe in Indian excuses...they are looking for face saving...and their excuses range from "calling nuclear bluff", to "creating a new norm", and worst of all the lame excuse of "gauging Pak's capability prior to revoking article 370", etc. All very lame attempts...that fly in the face of logic.

 

[Zulu]

And i hope its not get derailed by unnecessary posts Hats off to u Sir for giving us such detail and thoughtful posts.Coming back to topic avoiding all unnecessary and useless talks whats your take of this peace agreement ??Few points to be cleared on start
1)COMPLETE WITHDRAWL IS AGREED.so whats after that on all front....?
2)What guarantee/demand they asked from Pakistan and on which Pakistan agreed on??
3)Who provide the gurantees role of GCC,China and Russia is very imp to ensure keep it on track
4)expect any more demands or curve ball from US if Trump loss the coming election

What are ur thoughts on being seen as "invaders" by this piecemeal strategy?

This has the potential to give the Afghan gov an excuse to raise the whole "Pukhtoonistan" issue...with this they can point to their real territory(taken by Pak) along with their ridiculous claim of land they have under the label of "Pukhtoonistan"...
...muddying the waters and providing somewhat of half a truth to their otherwise BS claim.

Secondly if the Afghan ppl see Pak as invaders...they will buckle down and start resisting militarily(asymmetrically)...as they have done against USSR and US. In this case getting bogged down and bleeding lots of blood and money would be highly unfavorable.

Thoughts?

On a side note...thank you @Khafee for creating this thread and moving all the posts here.

 

[Zulu]

@Khafee Ahm ahm

Afghanistan's Abdullah Abdullah to visit Pakistan soon | The Express Tribune

Head of Afghan peace council was invited by FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi

tribune.com.pk

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

@Khafee Ahm ahm

Afghanistan's Abdullah Abdullah to visit Pakistan soon | The Express Tribune

Head of Afghan peace council was invited by FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi

tribune.com.pk

I dont trust anyone in this kabul city government.

 

[Khafee]

I dont trust anyone in this kabul city government.

Make him sign Agreement on Unification, and make him Governor for (short) life