Cookie Monster
THINK TANK
This post below is how I think it will go down(post exit)...and not at all related to my wishful thinking of annexing Afganistan.And i hope its not get derailed by unnecessary posts Hats off to u Sir for giving us such detail and thoughtful posts.Coming back to topic avoiding all unnecessary and useless talks whats your take of this peace agreement ??Few points to be cleared on start
1)COMPLETE WITHDRAWL IS AGREED.so whats after that on all front....?
2)What guarantee/demand they asked from Pakistan and on which Pakistan agreed on??
3)Who provide the gurantees role of GCC,China and Russia is very imp to ensure keep it on track
4)expect any more demands or curve ball from US if Trump loss the coming election
1) After the US completely leaves...there will be a struggle for power by the various factions.
...US wants some sort of a coalition between the Afghan Taliban and the current Afghan government. US recognizes the territory control, influence, and power of Afghan Taliban(hence negotiations with them) and since US has decided to leave(instead of trying to defeat them) they want favorable terms with them. Despite wanting favorable terms with them...US doesn't want them to have complete power. US wants the current Afghan gov to be part of whatever results in the end. The sell outs sitting in the Afghan gov are more easily controllable for US. So basically the ideal(from US point of view) would be a weakened(due to power sharing) hold of Afghan Taliban in the new government along with sellouts in the mix that oppose the Afghan Taliban.
^that's what I think is being pushed for during the negotiations. US is trying to convince the Afghan Taliban to share power...and I think that's one of the biggest issues causing delay for an agreement to be reached. Whatever power sharing agreement is reached...once US troops leave...I think any such power sharing agreement would fall apart(even if not immediately...it will eventually).
2) The guarantee asked of Pakistan is probably to keep Afghan Taliban in line...
...either to convince them for this power sharing...or in case if power sharing doesn't work out(or fails later) and the Afghan Taliban seize power then they would want Pakistan to keep them in line. As in don't allow Al-Qaeda like anti US militias free reign. This is probably part of the negotiations...this is the guarantee they want from Afghan Taliban and Pakistan.
3) I think the US recognizes that Pakistan is one of the key players in Afganistan...among one of the most influential.
- The role of Russia is pretty much non existent...they are already onboard the BRI project...and can get access to sea through Pak if they want. Hence if that is the goal...it's not viable to pursue through Afghanistan. In the past they came to support the side they backed...back when they were looking to spread communism...that's no longer the case. They are no longer trying to spread communism like before. So they have literally nothing to gain in Afghanistan.
- China doesn't have the influence like Pak's...their influence is more through throwing money for development projects and such. If they want influence on the ground...they can act through Pak and Pak can act through Afghan Taliban.
- India's influence is on the groups opposing Afghan Taliban(bcuz obviously the enemy of my enemy is my friend...if Afghan Taliban have support of Pak...their enemies get India to support them...and in return push Indian agenda). However we have seen those groups fail in their struggle against the Afghan Taliban. Nonetheless they will continue trying and this struggle will play a part in instability that is likely to occur.
- GCC...I'm not sure how they will play out in this...I think if anything they would be in support of Pak's influence rather than directly getting involved. The reason is that they can just exercise indirect control through Pak(much like China). They will definitely be interested in at least supporting Pak to counter Iran.
- Iran would try its hand at gaining influence...and might even join hands with the same groups that India would back.
4) I actually expect Trump to win. Trump supporters for the most part are blind supporters. Anything that is shown in the media against Trump...he calls it fake news and they believe him. Additionally US did experience relatively good economic progress(in terms of low unemployment and other such things) under him(prior to COVID19). Then during the lockdown...even though the economy suffered...the government approved a stimulus package which handed out money to businesses and ppl. Like taxpayers literally received money directly in their bank accounts. Some will blindly give credit to Trump for it and hence vote for him.
The remaining who may not want to vote for him...will probably end up doing so like last time they did to sort of spite the democrats. During the last elections...a lot of Bernie supporters voted for Trump bcuz of the shenanigans Dems pulled to make make him lose against Hillary. The Dems did the same this time...even worse. Bernie had the lead and Biden was dead last...then as each Dem candidate dropped out of the race they backed out in support of Biden. This literally brought him up from the last position to the point where he won and Bernie was sidelined again. So in conclusion Trump will win again.
Sidenote...I myself am thinking of voting for Trump. Although I don't care for Trump nor Biden...I would ask members here to give their input whether or not I should vote for Trump.
Last edited: