Syrian Revolution News & Discussions

[Redheart]

Russian-backed Syrian army advances imperil peace talks - CBS News

The Syrian government will not make any new concessions in future peace talks at a time when the Syrian army is making progress in different parts of the country, a senior official in President Bashar Assad's ruling Baath party said in remarks published Sunday.

Hilal al-Hilal's comments come ahead of scheduled peace talks in Geneva to work on ending Syria's nearly five-year conflict, which has killed more than 250,000 people. His remarks were published by state media Sunday.

The Geneva talks, which were to begin Monday but will likely be delayed, are part of a U.N. plan that envisions an 18-month timetable for a political transition.

The Syrian opposition says Assad should have no role in Syria's future, even during a transitional period. Assad, whose family has governed Syria for more than four decades, has said he will only step down if voted out.

"We are not going to give today what we did not give over the past five years," said al-Hilal late Saturday, during a visit to troops in areas they recently captured from insurgents outside the capital, Damascus.

"This year will be the year of victory for Syria because of the heroic acts and sacrifices by its army and people," said al-Hilal.

Also Sunday, the government newspaper, Tishrin, said in an editorial that the Geneva talks should only bring in negotiators with genuine plans for rebuilding Syria, and not "representatives for the agendas terrorist-supporting countries that seek a seat for terrorism at the dialogue table."

Tishrin was referring to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, who are strong backers of the opposition that is trying to remove Assad from power.

On Sunday, Syrian troops captured the town of Rabiaa and the village of Rawda in the coastal province of Latakia, their latest push since Russia began airstrikes last year, according to state news agency SANA and the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Russia began its air campaign Sept. 30, and Syrian troops and allied militiamen launched a ground offensive against rebels in different parts of Syria shortly afterward, regaining control of dozen of towns and villages.

Russia has been one of the strongest supporters of Assad since the start of the uprising in 2011.

Opposition groups have accused Russia of obstructing the talks by trying to impose restrictions on which opposition groups can participate. Some opposition groups have said they will not take part in talks while Syrians die from government blockades and in Russian and government airstrikes.

 

[JulianWilliams]

What do you guys make of all those claims abut Russia asking Assad to step down? I find them unlikely to be true. The Assads have been Russia's allies for about half a century now, it's unlikely Putin would want somebody else in. You never know, the new govt might want to realign themselves with the west.

 

[Redheart]

While it would be great if Assad did step down I don't believe the rumors that Russia wants him to step down.

Assad himself said he won't step down unless, after the peace talks, he's voted out. Since elections can be rigged it's not likely that he would lose. This is probably the reason why they want to emphatically defeat the rebels first so in case elections are held and he wins there'll be no one willing to fight.

 

[Redheart]

Syrian army captures key southern town from rebels - Al Jazeera English

The Syrian army has captured a key southern town from rebel forces after weeks of fierce fighting, a Syrian activist group says.

The fall of Sheikh Maskin on Monday means government forces will strengthen their hold on Deraa province, while cutting off rebel factions from key supply lines.

Deraa, the scene of the earliest protests against the Syrian government in 2011, contains routes crucial to both the Syrian army and rebel fighters.

"The town is very important for both sides. They have both fought fiercely. Now, by taking it, the regime has cut off the rebels links between eastern and western Deraa," said Rami Abdulrahman, head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks violence in the country through a wide network of local sources.

"The destruction in the town is huge."

The organisation said fighting involved government troops backed by fighters from the Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah, as well as air support from Russian fighter jets.

Rebel groups include al-Nusra Front, Islamic factions, and those aligned with the Western-backed Free Syrian Army.

Juan Cole, a Middle East analyst at the University of Michigan, told Al Jazeera the recent gains by government forces in Syria's south were significant, considering rebels once controlled about 70 percent of Deraa province.

Cole also underscored Russia's role in the advance.

"Largely because of Russian air intervention, the rebels are being scattered. Things have just turned around 180 degrees for the regime since the Russians came in… Now there is a significant reversal that will affect the rebels' logistics," said Cole.

Peace talks

A Syrian government advance on Deraa began late in December and Sheikh Maskin's fall comes amid international efforts to bring opposing factions to the negotiating table.

On Monday, the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said peace talks originally scheduled to start on Monday would be pushed back to Friday.

The proposed-Geneva 2 peace effort has been blighted by disagreements over which rebel groups should be allowed to attend.

The talks will also exclude al-Nusra Front, which is al-Qaeda's affiliate in the country, as well as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group, which controls most of Syria's eastern half.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Russia carries out more long-range bombing sorties over Syria
Tim Ripley, London and Jeremy Binnie, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
26 January 2016

Five Russian Tu-22M3 bombers are seen lined up at an airbase, presumably Mozdok, in an image released by the Russian MoD on 25 January. Source: Russian MoD

Russian long-range bombers returned to action over Syria after a pause of just over two months in an attempt to drive back Islamic State forces besieging a government-held city in the east of the country.

The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 25 January that Tupolov Tu-22M3 ('Backfire') bombers flew 18 sorties to engage Islamic State assets in the eastern province of Dayr al-Zawr (Deir ez-Zour) between 22 January and 24 January.

While the MoD did not say where the sorties were launched from, it has been previously revealed that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKO) deployed Tu-22M3 bombers to the Mozdok Air Base in North Ossetia to support the military intervention in Syria.

The MoD released a video showing two bombers taking off from a Russian airbase and each dropping about 12 FAB-250-270 unguided bombs, purportedly over Syria. The video showed eight Tu-22M3s present at the base.

The previous round of long-range bomber strikes announced by the Russian MoD took place on 17-20 November and included Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers launching cruise missiles in addition to Tu-22M3s dropping unguided bombs.

Major General Anatoly Konovalov, the deputy commander of the VKO's Long-Range Aviation, said on 9 December that during this surge 145 sorties were flown, 1,500 bombs dropped, and 20 cruise missiles launched.

An image released by the Islamic State on 20 January shows a 1S91 engagement radar at the 2K12 Kub battery northeast of Dayr al-Zawr city. (Islamic State)

The latest long-range bomber strikes came after an Islamic State ground offensive made progress against the enclave held by government forces around the city of Dayr al-Zawr. The Russian MoD said that 2,000 militants with armoured vehicles are involved in the offensive.

The Islamic State has released images of large quantities of materiel it said it captured during the offensive, including a 1S91 engagement radar, at least one 2P25 launcher, and at least two missiles from a 2K12 Kub (SA-6 'Gainful') surface-air-missile (SAM) system.

The Islamic State captured a 2P25 launcher from retreating Syrian forces in 2014, but this is the first time its fighters have been seen with the 1S91 radar needed to form an operational 2K12 system.

Russia carries out more long-range bombing sorties over Syria | IHS Jane's 360

 

[Redheart]

Syrian opposition demands answers before joining talks| Reuters

BEIRUT/GENEVA/PARIS Plans to hold the first negotiations to end the civil war in Syria for two years were in doubt on Wednesday after the opposition said it would not show up unless the United Nations responded to demands for a halt to attacks on civilian areas.

The Syrian government has already agreed to join the talks that U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura hopes to convene in an indirect format in Geneva on Friday with the aim of ending the five-year-old war that has killed 250,000 people.

Washington urged Syrian opposition groups to attend.

"Factions of the opposition have an historic opportunity to go to Geneva and propose serious, practical ways to implement a ceasefire, humanitarian access and other confidence-building measures, and they should do so without preconditions," State Department spokesman Mark Toner said.

Preparations have been beset by difficulties, including a dispute over who should be invited to negotiate with President Bashar al-Assad's government as it claws back territory with help from Russia and Iran.

Kurds, who control a swathe of northern Syria, were not invited and predicted the talks would fail.

A Saudi-backed opposition council that groups armed and political opponents of Assad broke up a second day of meetings in Riyadh, saying it was waiting for a response from the United Nations to demands before it decided whether to attend.

While it has expressed support for a political solution and talks, the opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC) says attacks on civilian areas must stop before any negotiations.

In a letter to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, it also called for the lifting of sieges on blockaded areas among other steps outlined by the U.N. Security Council in a resolution passed last month.

"We are waiting for the response of de Mistura first, and then Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, which is the most important ... If it is positive maybe there will be an agreement to go," Asaad al-Zoubi, an HNC member, told Saudi TV channel Al Ikhbariya.

Diplomacy has so far failed to resolve a conflict that has forced millions from their homes, creating a refugee crisis in neighbouring states and Europe. With the war raging unabated, the latest diplomatic effort has been overshadowed by increased tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

While the Saudi-backed HNC includes powerful rebel factions fighting Assad in western Syria, Russia has been demanding wider participation to include Syrian Kurds who control wide areas of northern and northeastern Syria.

The Syrian Kurdish PYD party, which is affiliated with the Kurdish YPG militia, was however excluded from the invitation list in line with the wishes of Turkey, a major sponsor of the rebellion which views the PYD as a terrorist group.

The PYD's representative in France, Khaled Eissa, who had been on a list of possible delegates proposed by Russia, blamed regional and international powers, in particular Turkey, for blocking the Kurds and forecast the talks would fail.

"You can't neglect a force that controls an area three times the size of Lebanon," he said. "We will not respect any decision taken without our participation."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said the PYD could join the talks at a later stage.

Haytham Manna, a prominent opposition figure allied to the PYD and invited to the talks, told Reuters he would not attend if his allies were not there.

Manna is co-leader of an opposition group called the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), which includes the PYD and was formed in December in Kurdish-controlled Hasaka province.

Ilham Ahmed, a Kurdish politician who co-chairs the SDC, heaped criticism on de Mistura.

"We hold him responsible - not America or Russia - him and the United Nations. He was tasked with forming the delegations in a balanced way and in a way that represents all the elements of Syrian society," she told Reuters.

"When the whole of northern Syria is excluded from these negotiations, it means they are the ones dividing Syria. They are always accusing the Kurds of dividing Syria, but they are the ones dividing Syria."

 

[Bubblegum Crisis]

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Russia have economic means of its geopolitical ambitions ?

The Russian economy is preparing for worst case scenarios



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Quote : " Oil: Moscow hope a gesture of OPEC (Saudi Arabia) "


Pétrole : Moscou espère un geste de l’OPEP

LE MONDE ECONOMIE | 29.01.2016 à 07h26
Par Jean-Michel Bezat

Les marchés pétroliers sont à la recherche de la moindre décision susceptible de faire remonter les cours. Ils viennent d’en trouver une : la perspective d’une réunion, courant février, entre les pays producteurs, membres ou non de l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (OPEP), qui pourrait déboucher sur une baisse de production de brut. Les prix sont remontés, jeudi 28 janvier, pour terminer à 34,48 dollars le baril de Brent à Londres et à 33,68 dollars le baril de WTI à New York.

« Certains pays ont proposé une telle initiative et la question est actuellement étudiée par les différents pays, a annoncé, jeudi, le ministre russe de l’énergie. De notre côté, nous avons confirmé la possibilité de notre participation. » Alexander Novak a évoqué une « coordination » avec l’OPEP dans un contexte où les prix sont tombés, mi-janvier, sous les 28 dollars le baril.

« Actuellement, les pays de l’OPEP tentent de convoquer une réunion avec la participation de pays membres de l’OPEP et de pays non-membres en février », a déclaré M. Novak, cité par les agences russes.

M. Novak est allé plus loin en indiquant que le royaume saoudien, chef de fil des treize membres de l’OPEP, avait plusieurs fois proposé de réduire la production pétrolière de chaque pays jusqu’à 5 % pour soutenir les prix. L’Arabie saoudite ne serait pas hostile à une telle baisse, pourvu qu’elle soit partagée ; mais elle ne voudrait pas supporter seule les efforts de rééquilibrage du marché au détriment de ses parts de marché.


Véritable retournement

Une telle issue constituerait un véritable retournement. Jusqu’à présent, le cartel s’est montré divisé et Riyad a imposé sa stratégie, qui a entraîné un effondrement des prix (- 70 % depuis juin 2014). Tous ses membres pompent désormais au maximum de leurs possibilités, sauf l’Arabie saoudite, pour conserver leurs parts de marché. La Russie a pris part à ce mouvement effréné : sa production quotidienne a atteint 10,7 millions de barils en 2015, un record depuis la chute de l’Union soviétique en 1991.

Pour l’heure, l’Arabie saoudite n’a pas réagi officiellement, et la perspective de voir l’OPEP changer de politique en resserrant les vannes s’éloigne. Quatre membres du cartel ont même indiqué n’avoir jamais entendu parler des discussions évoquées par M. Novak.

Malgré un lourd déficit budgétaire en 2015 et 2016, l’Arabie Saoudite n’est pas aux abois. Il n’en va pas de même en Russie, dont 50 % des recettes budgétaires proviennent du pétrole et du gaz. Déjà frappée par les sanctions occidentales imposées après l’annexion de la Crimée, elle est entrée en 2016 dans sa deuxième année de récession, avec un rouble à son plus bas historique face au dollar. Le gouvernement doit sortir de cette situation. « Si les prix restent longtemps à un bas niveau, une certaine baisse [de la production] est possible, a récemment déclaré le vice-premier ministre, Arkadi Dvorkovitch. Nos partenaires le savent. »

On peut s’interroger sur le terme de « partenaires » s’agissant notamment des pétromonarchies du golfe. La Russie n’a qu’une place d’observateur à l’OPEP. Le cartel et la Russie pèsent certes 40 % de la production mondiale, mais ils n’ont jamais voulu coordonner leur action. Quand Riyad, Abou Dhabi ou Koweït City resserraient les vannes, Moscou profitait de la remontée des cours sans avoir à réduire sa production, sinon à la marge. En outre, les deux pays ont des intérêts politiques divergents au Moyen-Orient : la Russie soutient le régime de Bachar Al-Assad et son allié iranien, l’ennemi juré du royaume saoudien.


Prudence

Il faut donc prendre ces annonces avec beaucoup de prudence. Il faudrait aussi que la Russie et ses nombreux producteurs fassent preuve de discipline. Rien n’est moins sûr. M. Novak les a bien réunis, mercredi, pour leur proposer « une possible coordination » avec l’OPEP. Mais la concurrence est rude au sein même du pays qui, par ailleurs, ne dispose pas de grandes capacités de stockage, indiquent les experts. L’année 2015 a prouvé que tant que le prix du baril est au-dessus des coûts opérationnels d’extraction, les compagnies continuent de pomper.

En septembre 2015, le PDG du géant public Rosneft indiquait que l’OPEP avait proposé à la Russie de la rejoindre. Mais plusieurs éléments rendent cette démarche utopique, de l’aveu même d’Igor Setchine, un proche de Vladimir Poutine. Une partie de la production est assurée par des sociétés privées qui ne sont pas aux ordres du Kremlin, « ce qui est atypique pour les pays de l’OPEP », où la compagnie publique est le plus souvent une excroissance de l’Etat. En outre, les conditions climatiques extrêmes du Grand Nord et de Sibérie rendent difficile une régulation rapide de la production russe. Et, plus profondément, Moscou ne peut envisager de soumettre sa production - et ses recettes budgétaires - aux décisions d’un cartel international.

Quant aux Etats-Unis (environ 9,5 millions de barils par jour), en partie responsables de la surproduction actuelle et de l’effondrement des prix, ils n’ont pas vocation à se rendre à une telle réunion. Seule la loi d’airain du marché fera plier les oilmen texans. Et certains analystes se demandent si la Russie n’entretient pas à dessein la rumeur d’une telle réunion pour faire remonter les prix.


Le Monde



...

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Russia deploys Su-35 fighters to Syria
Jan 31, 2016


Russia deploys reinforcements to to Syria. Up to four Su-35s are now believed to have joined the four Su-30SMs, already present at Hmeemeem/Bassel al-Assad IAP, Lattakia Governorate.

As the leader of a group of fighters Su-35S acts board “05” Red RF-95815, followed by “06” Red RF-95816, “04” and the red “03” red (presumably serial numbers 02517, 02518).

The Sukhoi Su-35 (NATO reporting name: Flanker-E) is a designation for two separate, heavily upgraded derivatives of the Su-27 ‘Flanker’ jet plane. They are single-seat, twin-engine,supermaneuverable multirole fighters, designed by Sukhoi and built by Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Production Association (KnAAPO).

The Su-35 is a 4++ generation aircraft employing technologies of the fifth generation. They make it superior to all other 4th generation fighters now under development worldwide. In 2009-2015, thanks to these technologies, the Su-35 will dominate the world market, outperforming other proposed multi-role fighters.

In addition to the armaments onboard the modern Su-30MK, it is planned to additionally arm the Su-35 with new types of air-to-air and air-to-surface guided missiles, including long-range types. The maximum ordnance load of the Su-35 is 8,000 kg. This is placed in 12 weapon stations.


Russia deploys Su-35 fighters to Syria | Defence blog

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Saudi, Turkey back Syrian opposition irrespective of talks

A protester places an opposition flag at a checkpoint controlled by Free Syrian Army fighters, during a protest asking for the release of prisoners held in the government jails in al-Fardous neighborhood of Aleppo. (Reuters)

Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Sunday, 31 January 2016
Saudi Arabia’s and Turkey’s foreign ministers said on Sunday that their countries backed Syria’s opposition whether they continued with the Geneva peace talks or opted to discontinue negotiation in a press conference.

Saudi Foreign Minister Aden al-Jubeir said the Syrian opposition went to Geneva to negotiate for transfer of power, new elections and a new Syria.

Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the Syrian opposition was free to leave Geneva talks anytime if terms are not met.

The two countries are strong backs of the Syrian opposition in contrast with Russia and Iran, who are supporting regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

In the press conference, Jubeir also said Riyadh supports Ankara’s right to defend itself.

His support to Ankara comes after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Moscow Saturday that it would be forced to “endure the consequences” if its jets continue to violate Turkish airspace, after Ankara reported a new border infringement incident by a Russian plane.

Last Update: Sunday, 31 January 2016 KSA 19:10 - GMT 16:10
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/01/31/Saudi-Turkey-back-Syrian-opposition-whether-they-choose-talks-or-not-.html

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Kingdom distributes winter clothes to displaced Syrian families

• Saudi National Campaign (SNC) distributed about 5,550 winter items to Syrian families in northern Lebanon facing tough times this winter season. (SPA)
  

RASHID HASSAN

Published — Monday 1 February 2016
Last update 1 February 2016 3:24 am

RIYADH: The Saudi National Campaign to Support Brothers in Syria stepped up support for displaced Syrian families in the wake of the ongoing cold spell in the Middle East, providing warm clothing and heating supplies in a bid to offer them much-needed relief.

As the cold spell in the region is a challenging time, especially for war-hit Syrian families staying in several neighboring countries, the Saudi National Campaign (SNC) distributed about 5,550 winter items to Syrian families in northern Lebanon facing tough times this winter season.

A senior official of the campaign said on Saturday that this is the ninth leg of the ongoing assistance of winter supplies that contained blankets, jackets, pullovers, headgear and other heating items to provide needed assistance to 462 displaced families.
Badr bin Abdul Rahman Al-Samhan, SNC regional director, said that the service is in line with relief operations of the Kingdom to help distressed Syrian brothers and sisters, who are staying in neighboring countries.

He noted that the campaign for Syrian brothers and sisters during this humanitarian crisis is a duty Almighty Allah bestowed upon us to serve humanity, in compliance with religious and fraternal values.

He further underscored that through its work, the campaign focuses on diverse relief aid to the actual beneficiaries by adopting a clear action plan with a comprehensive mechanism to offer help in a systematic manner, ensuring that those in dire need have access to the aid and assistance.

Earlier, the SNC distributed more than 5,000 blankets among Syrian families in December as the part of the SR2 million package allocated for relief work during this winter.

Significantly, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees recently expressed its sincere thanks to SNC for their aid and assistance to the displaced Syrians.

Notably, millions of people have fled Syria during the course of the war, and the Kingdom has received approximately 2.5 million displaced Syrians since the conflict intensified in 2011.

Others fled to neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, and some European countries.
Kingdom distributes winter clothes to displaced Syrian families | Arab News

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

In Syria spotted new protection system for tanks and armored vehicles
Feb 2, 2016

Unknown device on Syrian T-72A

The Unknown device noticed yesterday on T-72 tanks and BMP-1 of Syrian army. Еhe device looks like a cylinder with sensors and it is likely to active protection system.

The active protection system is a system designed to prevent line-of-sight guided anti-tank missiles/projectiles from acquiring and/or destroying a target.

Externally, the new complex resembles the Russian Arena active protection system (APS) developed at Russia’s Kolomna-based Engineering Design Bureau. But in the complex are not visible launchers for defensive rocket is fired that detonates near the inbound threat, destroying it before it hits the vehicle.


Russian «Arena» Active Protection System
Maybe it’s just optical sensor classifies the incoming threat for smoke grenade launcher systems.






Unknown device on Syrian BMP-1
In Syria spotted new protection system for tanks and armored vehicles | Defence blog

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Russian TV confirmed the deployment of Su-35S in Syria | Defence blog

 

[Falcon29]

@Scorpion @Gasoline @T-123456 @WebMaster

Do you think Syrians will call it quits after recent developments in Aleppo? Will anybody intervene in any manner? The future for the Sunni Muslims in the region doesn't look good. For those living in the region I now understand that I shouldn't be demanding or expect much out of you. It is not in your hands, the people don't deserve this.

 

[Scorpion]

@Scorpion @Gasoline @T-123456 @WebMaster

Do you think Syrians will call it quits after recent developments in Aleppo? Will anybody intervene in any manner? The future for the Sunni Muslims in the region doesn't look good. For those living in the region I now understand that I shouldn't be demanding or expect much out of you. It is not in your hands, the people don't deserve this.

The situation escalated very quickly. The Iranians are trying to change the demography of the Syrian cities through starvation and other means. My friend the whole people in the region are calling for military intervention to end the suffering as its the only one way to solve the issue. No political solution can put an end to the misery of the Syrians. Only force can solve it.