Acquisition of J-15 for PAF- Air Superiority & Deep Strike Platfrom

[Khafee]

Sorry Bro.
But I remain in the @Signalian camp on this one. I will have no hesitation in apologizing to you if it comes true but currently I remain sceptical. I will however be ecstatic if it does happen.
Kind regards
A

You see, when the evidence is staring you in the face, and THEN you say, I am a believer, by that time you have missed the boat. After that you can be ecstatic, or orgasmic, doesn't matter.

Best Regards

 

[MIRauf]

Boomers ? which type ? SSK / SSBN ?

SSK-AIP ( Doggy paddle ) , couple of missiles
SSBN ( Michael Phelps ) , 12+ Missiles

 

[Khafee]

Boomers ? which type ? SSK / SSBN ?

SSK-AIP ( Doggy paddle ) , couple of missiles
SSBN ( Michael Phelps ) , 12+ Missiles

SSBN X 2 IA
4~6 SLBM's / SSBN

 

[ali razza]

Sorry Bro.
But I remain in the @Signalian camp on this one. I will have no hesitation in apologizing to you if it comes true but currently I remain sceptical. I will however be ecstatic if it does happen.
Kind regards
A

with due respect
sir please observe the situation
m sure u would not have to doubt again inshallah

 

[Gripen9]

@Signalian @Gripen9
My question from you as you are expert in area

Is J16 or J11B are available for export to any third country by Russia. As per my limited knowledge its under restrictions from russia.

J11 / J16 cannot be exported due to Russian restrictions. No such contract for J15.
It was rumored PAF was negotiating with Russia for SU35 but with ability to install chinese AESA Nd weapons which Russia declined to entertain.

 

[Armchair]

And here I am dreaming about bombing Bombay with hypersonic bombs from the brand new J-15s while paralyzing the Indians with EW.

 

[HardTalk]

While I am enjoying this thread, I must say I am a little disappointed to see that there are some elements, yet again, with their same one track, very humbly spewed, point of view.

We have read it for decades elsewhere and want a change.. that’s why we are here. Please allow this forum to continue on its positive trajectory. Thank you.

 

[Gripen9]

While I am enjoying this thread, I must say I am a little disappointed to see that there are some elements, yet again, with their same one track, very humbly spewed, point of view.

We have read it for decades elsewhere and want a change.. that’s why we are here. Please allow this forum to continue on its positive trajectory. Thank you.

Wait a few more weeks inshallah!

 

[Crystal-Clear]

All the brothers just cool down. You are both respectable members and seniors.please i request both of you please avoid any confusion and anger against each other. Thanks you brothers.

Ehhhhhh gandhi ji....??... thori kushti wushti dekhney ko milti maza ata .

 

[Counter-Errorist]

Ehhhhhh gandhi ji....??... thori kushti wushti dekhney ko milti maza ata .

Head down to the other world. 99% Kushti, 1% sense.

 

[Crystal-Clear]

@Signalian 2 points

Yes I remembered thats why i asked , 4 had already arrived according to your sources ,I just guessed that remaining would be too if PAF/PA is planning for a ceremony

4 J-15 ARRIVED ? ????

 

[Counter-Errorist]

4 J-15 ARRIVED ? ????

Zulus, not J-15s

 

[Armchair]

IF Category A fighter pilots from PAF went to China, I doubt they will be staying there for 2 months. So I think its max 1 month at best.

 

[Signalian]

STOVL aircraft are very complicated to develop, expensive to maintain and have an incredibly bad record - just check out the Harrier and the well known troubles in operating them. PN doesn't need them as PN is not hoping for an aircraft carrier at any time.

Incidentally, it was because of including the STOVL F-35 that the program faced an incredible amount of problems and the ultimate product for A and C suffer from serious aerodynamic challanges because of the same. I would humbly hope PAF doesn't make the mistake the West has and go down that road... just an opinion here.



I think the main reason mentioned by @Khafee , which I perhaps didn't explain quite clearly in my last post, is that J-15s are:
1. Navalized. This means that when you fly them over the sea, they are relatively corrosion resistant (see Dutch F-16s and their problems with corrosion due to constant sea overflight).
2. Agreement not to sell Su-27s between China and Russia. Russia refused to gives Su-33 and J-15 is a Su-33 copy. Thus technically, China won't be breaking its agreement with its most important ally.
3. If Pak wanted to customize a J-15 variant, a new variant would need to go through a testing process (like no folding wings, no strengthened undercarriage for carrier landings). This testing phase would have pushed the project back by 18 months. But Pakistan is re-arming urgently. 18 months is too late for the perceived ballgame.
4. I don't see this as a major shift in doctrine, but I am happy to agree to disagree. The most major change is PN's ability to strike Indian Southern coast. Pretty much at will.
BMs and CMs are nuclear capable and once you start lobbing BMs to Indian South, Indians have no way of knowing if that BM is nuclear armed or not. So is it a Pakistani first strike or not. So, essentially, BMs become useless for a conventional war, as they take both sides precariously close to MAD.
Pakistani CMs don't have the range or payload to impact Indian south. And CMs are relatively easier to shoot down, when launched from a distance. They are basically small, subsonic aircraft on a one way mission.

PN Air arm with JF-17 has a very short range radius of operations. Take a look at the map and the SLOCs. How will PN maintain SLOCs if IN wants to enforce a blockade? Would be near impossible. Calculate the radius of operation of JF-17s from all Pak bases and see if you can maintain air cover over the most rudimentary SLOC zone...

PN is still hopelessly outsized and out performed. Count the number of VL tubes of both navies. The amount of air defenses on their ships vs Pak's. The number of AShMs on each... What PN has is a bandaid. Now combine that with the force multiplication effect of naval air power. Naval wars have, since WWII been won from the air... How will PN manage to protect Pak from a blockade with a few squadrons of JF-17s against 2 aircraft carriers and endless FLANKERs? Realistically, even if a single squadron of J-15s, the disparity is huge. We are trying here to reduce that disparity and give David a chance against Goliath.



Bilal Khan (Quwa) thinks Azm will be operational in the 2040s... we don't even know what it is and what capability it will bring... what happens if Modi goes totally nuts and tries to create Akhund Bharat in December, 2020? What happens is US sides with India and shuts down spare parts for PAF? What happens if US sells F-18s or F-35s to IN? ... Pak has to plan for contingencies. Milavia procurement has to be predictive as if India does attack, there won't be any time to go shopping or even get the pilots familiarized.



I hope so too, I'm always worried about the finances. I am not even able to comprehend how Pak is affording VT-4s let alone J-15s. Financially, it seems like suicide.



I agree, I feel J-16 would have made more sense (or J-11 variant). But perhaps China will not break ranks with Russia, it shouldn't in fact, given the geopolitical situation that is developing.



France was (is?) maintaining some combat aircraft squadrons with only 40 hours a year flight time for pilots. Part of the reason is financial, but part of it is by substituting with simulators. Another way to do the same is to also add LIFT into the equation. In this regard, a squadron of JL-9s would be interesting. Even if we don't replicate the french, and reduce flight hours from 200 per year to say 60 per year, with the rest being fulfilled via JL-9 LIFT and on simulators, we can drastically lower the cost of operating the J-15s.



I may be wrong here, but I don't think a single naval squadron of J-15s would greatly change PAF doctrine. I personally would go with 18 aircraft naval squadron, and 8 extra aircraft, 4 each for Northern Command and Central Command. Maybe most of those would be kept as EW aircraft. Note the power of EW on the EA-18 Growler. They can paralyze an entire air defense setup. That's still just 26 aircraft...


I like these concepts you have brought forward. Pak and India, both went with MiG-21s but developed and used them totally differently. I think we can see the same with FLANKER employment.
If J-15s do come to Pakistan, I would personally feel that a single engined Azm would become more likely, as engines could be common to both types.

STOVL maybe a domain that PAF will have to look into in future. If not now then maybe 50 years ahead. Harrier was not conceived solely as a naval jet but it was also expected to take off from unprepared landing zones when all the air strips will be taken out by Soviets in Cold war era. This was one of the reasons it was armed with AGM-65 (non navalised version) to destroy enemy armor, bridges etc.

F-35 faced issues because of a lot of reasons, not just STOVL. F-35 and its plethora of problems is a topic for another day. F-16 and its blocks also advanced in technology side by side during F-35's inception, which led to F-35 incorporating more and more features. It would have been better if F-35 would have had blocks coming out every 3-5 years with enhancements and upgradations like Rafale and EFT are doing now.

J-15 navalized version, especially constructed with corrosion resistant material is somewhat hard to believe. PAF will get priority to use J-15 in its own domain of Ops, while PN Air arm gets second priority. Which corrosion resistant material are the JF-17 of 2nd Sqd and Mirage-V of 8th Sqd made up of ? Customisation has its limits too, the amount of freedom that PAF gets with JF-17 and in future Azm, it will not be get the same amount of freedom with J-15. PN's aim is to cripple IN naval vessels and submarines and effectively stop IN from creating a blockade for PN. Its important to take out targets with in range before moving on to targets in south of India. IN armada standing in Arabian sea is what PN needs to tackle, its militarily not feasible to ignore imminent threat and leap frog towards south of India.

BM armed/unarmed with Nuclear tip has to come to play at any stage of war. It's not Pakistan's responsibility to tell India before hand whether BM is carrying a nuclear warhead or not. If india can intercept it, good for India, if it can't, then wherever the BM lands, it brings destruction. Range of CM is never an issue when PN is armed with subs which forms its main offensive force and will venture in unknown waters to threaten IN armada. Subs are more stealthy than aircraft and IN will have to employ alot of assets to hunt PN subs. The second strike capability and SLCM have been acquired for a reason : To attack India where it hurts. SLCM armed subs are not only a deterrent but a constant pain for IN and India itself. Even then, hitting south of India doesnt offer much gain vis a vis capturing Indian territory by destroying the enemy occupying that area.

Truthfully, if JF-17 couldn't have maintained SLOCs, it wouldn't have been positioned in Karachi. JF-17 is not a show piece that will give good vibes to PN. JF-17 has been inducted in 2nd Squadron for a reason, so are the Air refuelers, AWACS and other PN MR aircrafts. In some thread of PDF, i calculated ranges of F-16 and JF-17 for different strike missions heading towards Mumbai, based on the hard work already conducted by some other member. State of affairs are truly not that gloomy. PAF has to support PN in its Ops, which weapon (aircraft or sub or ship) has to reach and strike where has to be decided in the war room. We can only speculate on the data provided as open source.

If the size of PN and IN would be compared at any stage of era after independence, the disparity has been massive, this is nothing new. PN will never be able to match IN in any accord, be it subs or ships or aircraft. This is a challenge that PN faces and has been trained while provided with relative armament to counter IN ships and subs. The induction of different kinds or missiles, aircrafts and subs has taken place for the same reason. No miracle weapon but training and then equipment is what wins the day. The capability of PAF can be seen as of 27th Feb and the capability of PN can be seen as how it forced the IN sub to surface and come in cross hairs of PN. Both instances have seen use of EW and other surveillance and detection methods.

 

[Armchair]

J-15 navalized version, especially constructed with corrosion resistant material is somewhat hard to believe.

Hi Signalian, all navalized platforms are built to more corrosion resistant standards. This is standard and has been going on for a long time and in many many naval platforms.