Erdogan says Turkey to launch 'air and ground' operation in Syria

[Falcon29]

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If sanctions are signed off, that will not be good for the Turkish currency.

 

[IbnAbdullah]

Salaam

What will happen if Assad's forces come dace to face with Turkish Army?

If the Turks are attacked, would they stay limited to the initial objective of creating buffer zone for the returning refugees or could their objectives change to regime change? Could the Turks even do something like that?

What happens if the Turks manage to successfully create a safe zone for returning refugees? Would Europe still oppose them? Maybe the Turks are hoping that would pacify the west.

I'm not really sure about what the GCC wants given how they were fully on board with ousting Assad and co? Is there a way to bring about a peace treaty/understanding between the Turks and the GCC Arabs?

 

[Falcon29]

Salaam

What will happen if Assad's forces come dace to face with Turkish Army?

If the Turks are attacked, would they stay limited to the initial objective of creating buffer zone for the returning refugees or could their objectives change to regime change? Could the Turks even do something like that?

What happens if the Turks manage to successfully create a safe zone for returning refugees? Would Europe still oppose them? Maybe the Turks are hoping that would pacify the west.

I'm not really sure about what the GCC wants given how they were fully on board with ousting Assad and co? Is there a way to bring about a peace treaty/understanding between the Turks and the GCC Arabs?

Imo, Turkey will push ahead with the safe zone and it will include Manbij as well as Ayn Al Arab(Kobane), even if that means striking Assad's forces. They cannot afford for Assad to take over those two cities to use as leverage to push Turkey out of Idlib. A regime push for Idlib means more bloodshed and refugee influx into Turkey. Turkey wants to create the safe zone and deescalate that whole area along with Idlib.

Afterwards, try pushing a political process with Russian help to bring refugees back and keep those areas in a permanent ceasefire. I do not see Turkey going for regime change, unless US/UK forces withdraw completely, and Assad forces take over all Kurdish areas. Then we will see them threatening Turkey and getting tough with it. That along with US possible sanctions could push Turkey into corner to lash out.

What you need to know is that the regime/Iran blame Turkey for arming rebels and allowing flow of fighters into Syria from Turkey. And they do not see Turkey as a partner and look forward to exacting what they see as revenge on Turkey. That doesn't mean attacking Turkey, but it means trying to end their influence in Syria and they will not honor any political agreement that is intended to prevent hostilities and/or crackdown one refugees who return.

The GCC/Turkey dispute is mostly related to Turkey's MB affiliation. And they have opposing views on Egypt/Libya/Qatar. Unfortunately, I don't see them coming to an understanding soon.

 

[IbnAbdullah]

Salaam

As Clauswitz said war is diplomacy through other means. There may be a different objective the Turks are going for which may not be apparent at this time.

What I mean is that it seems very unlikely to me that the Turks did not anticipate a serious blowback to their incursion into Syria. Maybe they do expect a serious reaction and don't intend to hold any territory or seriously invade Syria.


So I suspect that it may be that they want to use this operation as a means to gain some sort of negotiating chip for something else.

The objectives they hope to achieve - whether political/economic/social/diplomatic etc - are not in Syria but somewhere else.

I say this because it seems rather unlikely they'd not have anticipated a serious reaction.

Or it may be that they really do feel some sort of an existential threat looming if they had ignored the Kurdish issue. I cannot say for sure.

One thing is for sure, this game the Turks are playing is very high stakes one and I hope they know what they are doing.

 

[Falcon29]

Salaam

As Clauswitz said war is diplomacy through other means. There may be a different objective the Turks are going for which may not be apparent at this time.

What I mean is that it seems very unlikely to me that the Turks did not anticipate a serious blowback to their incursion into Syria. Maybe they do expect a serious reaction and don't intend to hold any territory or seriously invade Syria.


So I suspect that it may be that they want to use this operation as a means to gain some sort of negotiating chip for something else.

The objectives they hope to achieve - whether political/economic/social/diplomatic etc - are not in Syria but somewhere else.

I say this because it seems rather unlikely they'd not have anticipated a serious reaction.

Or it may be that they really do feel some sort of an existential threat looming if they had ignored the Kurdish issue. I cannot say for sure.

One thing is for sure, this game the Turks are playing is very high stakes one and I hope they know what they are doing.

Agree with you, and I believe it is to hold on to these areas and allow Syrian opposition to maintain a presence in Syria. An Syria totally under control of Assad forces/Iran/Russia is a big threat to Turkey in the long term. It is risky if US/UK/France forces withdraw totally, as Russia/Assad/Iran will definitely change their demeanor with Turkey if that happens and they will certainly make a push for Idlib and northern Syria even with Turkish forces present there.

I wonder if Turkey anticipated a total US withdrawal. Because that is what will complicate this matter.

 

[IbnAbdullah]

Salaam

Agree with you, and I believe it is to hold on to these areas and allow Syrian opposition to maintain a presence in Syria. An Syria totally under control of Assad forces/Iran/Russia is a big threat to Turkey in the long term. It is risky if US/UK/France forces withdraw totally, as Russia/Assad/Iran will definitely change their demeanor with Turkey if that happens and they will certainly make a push for Idlib and northern Syria even with Turkish forces present there.

I wonder if Turkey anticipated a total US withdrawal. Because that is what will complicate this matter.

Do you see Russia actually actively supporting the Assad forces in a direct attack on the Turkish forces if the EU and the US withdraw completely?

Without direct military support from Russia, do you see Assad's army actually attacking the Turks?

 

[Falcon29]

Salaam



Do you see Russia actually actively supporting the Assad forces in a direct attack on the Turkish forces if the EU and the US withdraw completely?

Without direct military support from Russia, do you see Assad's army actually attacking the Turks?

If US pulls out, EU will follow. And if US/EU sanction Turkey, then you will have an increasingly isolated and weaker Turkey. And at that point, yes, I do believe Russia will assist the regime in moving in on Idlib/Northern Syria against the rebels. They will do plenty of 'warning strikes' ie shelling near Turkish outposts to send message that they expect them to pull out. Like they did in Idlib. In Idlib, Turkey stood its ground and managed to prevent that. A month from now, we might live in a different reality. And at that point I don't know how Turkey will approach the conflict. So it looks bad for Turkey moving forward.

The only thing preventing this is Iranian competition with Russia over influence in Syria. Russia might find it in its interest to have Turkey continue to be a player in Syria as long as Iran insists on having a big role in Syria as well as be responsible for rebuilding parts of Syria(which will make them money/jobs/etc...).

Because both Iran and Russia expect the regime to pay them back for their life support of the regime. Syria is already honoring that understanding by leasing its ports to Russia. Iran meanwhile also expects some kind of economic/military agreements to be formed with Assad post war Syria, and they want to influence the Syrian government and the whole face of the government. Russia does not want that.

PS:

Regime and Russia want Manbij/Kobane to prevent rebel corridor across whole of northern Syria. Because that could threaten Aleppo in future and overall rejuvenate the rebel forces.

 

[Falcon29]

France says it will withdraw its forces from Syria after Trump decision to withdraw.

Erdogan says Turkey is moving forward with its decision to include Manbij and Kobane as part of safe zone.

^^

The Turkish led Syrian Rebel factions have captured a few villages outside the city of Manbij but are as of yet hesitant to make a push for the city. This comes with Turkish leadership statements and media announcements/coverage about the intent to capture the two cities. While Syrian regime media is also making announcements of SAA intent to takeover those cities in agreement with the Kurds. There is obviously no agreement here between the regime and Turkey. And both are daring each other to make a push for either city first. To see what kind of response it will draw.

Turkish announcements means they are trying to get an official position out of the regime or Russia but so far have not been gifted that.

 

[Falcon29]

EXCLUSIVE: U.S. CEDES SYRIAN CITY TO RUSSIA IN BATTLEFIELD 'HANDOVER' AS TURKEY TRIES TO TAKE IT

The U.S. military has begun a hasty exit from Syria's northern city of Manbij, and is set to help Russia establish itself there amid a Turkish attempt to defeat Kurdish-led, Pentagon-backed fighters at the strategic location, Newsweek has learned.

The U.S. was scheduled as of Monday to officially withdraw from Manbij within 24-hours, leaving the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces behind as two rival factions—the Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iran, and the Turkey-backed Syrian insurgents opposed to it—sought to seize control of the strategic location. A senior Pentagon official told Newsweek that U.S. personnel, "having been in the area for longer, has been assisting the Russian forces to navigate through previously unsafe areas quickly."

"It is essentially a handover," the official said. "However, it's a quick out, not something that will include walk-throughs, etc., everything is about making out with as much as possible of our things while destroying any sensitive equipment that cannot be moved."
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Exclusive: U.S. Cedes Syrian City to Russia in Battlefield 'Handover'

The U.S. "has been assisting the Russian forces to navigate through previously unsafe areas quickly," a senior Pentagon official told Newsweek.

www.newsweek.com

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I don't know how anyone still believes the US/EU/Israel are anti-Iran. None of this adds up. They make a lot of fiery statements in public, but the ground reality shows they are strengthening each other and weaken Sunni states in the region. Iran threatens Israel all the time, and Israel threatens Iran, and they never once staged an attack against each other. The world is on board with Assad regime reign continuing in Syria. As well as Kurdish state in Syria. Both of which strengthen Iran and Israel. Turkey has managed to foil the Kurdish project and is now being threatened by the whole world for being an obstacle to plan of strengthening Iran and Israel.

We will see real concrete steps to debilitate Turkey's economy and security soon. Meanwhile Iranian attacks on Arab states will continue without repercussion. And the Israeli and Iranian officials will go scream on TV about how they hate each other and on verge of destroying each other, while in reality they are working in cohort alliance to severely weaken Sunni states in the region.

I don't believe in the so called enmity between Iran and the US or Iran and Israel. Everything on the ground says otherwise. An Iranian war with Saudi Arabia is worse than a war with Israel, for Iran that it is. So whoever tries to bring up point that Iran is afraid of Israel, it's not true. The reality is the Iranians are seen as anti-Islam/Sunni Persians of the Middle East. And the world knows they are using Shia Islam as form of rebellion against Sunni Muslims. And they empowering Iran on a daily basis and making tons of concessions to it. They will go on TV and froth out of their mouths about the how they can't wait to uproot the enemy and how they despise each other so much, and it only remains on TV. For naive Sunni Muslims to believe.

So the Arab states take this seriously and don't once question US commitment against Iran. US and Israel did nothing against Iran. They allow Hezbollah to defacto rule Lebanon, they allow Iran to arm Houthi's. They do not put Houthi's on terrorist list. They gave Iraq to Iran. They allow Iran to conduct acts of war on neighboring Arab states. They helped Assad and Iran to crackdown on Syrians to regain control over Syria. These are not enemies. These are people who find common ground against Sunni Muslims and are working to topple each Sunni Muslim state one by one. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are the targets momentarily.

 

[Falcon29]

If there was a Sunni equivalent of Iran in the region, it would be bombed into oblivion by the whole world. Doesn't matter if that war will 10 times more catastrophic than a hypothetical war with Iran. This should tell you all you need to know.

The longer Arabs fall for this supposed feud between Iran and Israel/US, the worse their overall security situation will get.

 

[Falcon29]

 

[TomCat]

I never much looked into all this syria, usa, russia, iran, turkey scenerio since the beginning but someone clarify me this, "Is this Op similar to Zarb-E-Azb in which turkey is seeking to safeguard it's interest of making primarily it's country safe from Ter Attacks by sending refugees back to syria just like we sent thousands of afghanis back hence reducing chaos in their own country which has begun since last 3 years and that turkey is among the most dangerous countries to live now as per rankings ?"

 

[Falcon29]

^^

Can you guys believe it. SDF is literally YPG/PKK rebranded. And is a US designated terror organization. Yet we support them at the expense of one our top NATO allies. And now Turkey does a operation against them, all these threats and making stuff up about widespread casualties and bunch of refugees and what not. The intensity of the operation is low. Meanwhile Israel goes obliterates Gaza and kills 200 people in one day and we defend their right to defend themselves.

Do you guys also notice difference of tone when it comes to Turkey versus Iran. The US says we want to negotiate with Iran and don't want war with Iran. With Turkey, it is a very different tone. Associating them with ISIS, claiming they are committing a genocide and what not. When have they accused Iran of committing a genocide? Iran butchered hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis over the past decade and we never got this rhetoric against them.

 

[Falcon29]

I never much looked into all this syria, usa, russia, iran, turkey scenerio since the beginning but someone clarify me this, "Is this Op similar to Zarb-E-Azb in which turkey is seeking to safeguard it's interest of making primarily it's country safe from Ter Attacks by sending refugees back to syria just like we sent thousands of afghanis back hence reducing chaos in their own country which has begun since last 3 years and that turkey is among the most dangerous countries to live now as per rankings ?"

No, it is different. Turkey's economy can't sustain all these refugees, but they hardly face a security threat from them. They face a security threat from Kurdish SDF which is just rebranded YPG/PKK. The Kurdish SDF never controlled Syrian territory until after the civil war. The US chose them to be the ground troops against ISIS, instead of supporting the rebels against ISIS. Then the US deployed forces in that territory controlled by the SDF and since then the SDF has been on Turkey's southern border. Able to move freely and arm themselves and coordinate terrorist attacks on Turkey from within Syrian territory. Also, there is Idlib which the regime is trying to attack and retrieve from the rebels. If that attack goes through, there are gonna be millions more refugees going into Turkey which Turkey can't sustain.

So Turkey wants to make a buffer zone in Northern Syria to prevent Kurdish militants from amassing at their border and to allow refugees to return to Northern Syria.

However, the world wants to make sure Turkey doesn't succeed. And we will see tomorrow a multi pronged attack on Turkey via EU/US sanctions, Regime/Russia/Iran/Kurds attacks on their forces and border.

 

[BATMAN]

@Falcon29

If Iran and US had any beef among themselves, they would not have been co-operating in Afghanistan from past 1.5 decade.

Current Afghan regime and army commanders, who are ethnic Tajiks from gang of Northern Alliance, and now a days serves as regulars of IRGC, where and how those militants are deployed by Iran is a public knowledge.

Together, Iran and US carried out genocide and brutal killings of tribal Pashtoons in Afghanistan. Just because those were not Shia by religion.
US funded, armed, trained and supported Shia in Afghanistan to fast forward decades long Indo-Iranian efforts to take over Afghanistan.

Iran also claim to be at odds with Israel, but their closest ally India is the closest ally of Israel.
How's that possible that both have no communication or co-operation?
Take an example: Hizbi animals firing missile on Israeli houses, yet Israel is not asking India to talk or boycott Iran?

All US sanctions on Iran were a big farce, while sanctions on Pakistan in 80's were quite comprehensive and effective.

Arab think tanks need to study this axis of evil from all dimensions.

Do you know how elections in Pakistan are engineered by Iran. They announce via their mafia styled network, which party member shall be voted etc.
Pakistan is the next state falling in lap of axis of evil.