Post US withdrawl Afghanistan

[Armchair]

But we know one thing and you will agree with it sir, jets can be blocked / sanctioned at any moment until they land.

Who knows, possibly even after. Americans put little bugs in even printers they sold to Iraq so when they got into a war with them, they were able to locate them and do perhaps even more easily. Kill switches are real. But a lot more is possible other than just a kill switch. Like, giving away location of F-16s or collecting information with sensors and passing it on secretly.

 

[Zulu]

Thanx for your valueable input my friend but here comes the question i m asking for long time """Whats in this deal for us if they blocked F 16 too ???"""" as nobody expect Pakistan to provide it services for free for now and future we neved did before nor now so ??

That last attempt failed few days back... conveyed to them...

 

[Armchair]

Thanx for your valueable input my friend but here comes the question i m asking for long time """Whats in this deal for us if they blocked F 16 too ???"""" as nobody expect Pakistan to provide it services for free for now and future we neved did before nor now so ??

Pak may not go with the US but the US still needs Pak till November, 2020. Pak has this narrow window to milk the US, for whatever, even junk from AFG.

Now, those smart enough understand that it is only a matter of time before the US stops spares for F-16s. The best way to go forward for Pak is to get whatever upgrades and spares you can now. Secondly, go for LIFT to lower hours on F-16s. This will reduce spare parts usage.

 

[Zulu]

Was waiting for your reply to push conversation in proper direction
1)the junk US going to left one way or another Pakistan can pick through Taliban ,market dealers so its going to end in our hand.I rem back in 90's KPK police(NWFP than ) bought russian APC from private dealer so its not going to imapct much for deal
2)Trade as posted Qatar-PAK deals in AFG beneficial for both countries but to which extend its remain to be seen at the moment just an MOU
3)IN feb US trade secretary visited PAK but unsuccessful visit still waiting for some real deals
4)Now the ball again comes in military hardware .Reason to believe about local up gradation prog push by PAF that way less dependent on spares and have necessary training and tools to counter with it for future possibility of sanctions
5)Yes its best time to push Trump for somer eal result as his election nearer but in case if Joe Biden wins he also want US withdrawal but on diff conditions (tag u in previous post ) and everyone knows one US withdraw from AFG they are not coming back .Military deployment never an easy equation

Now why everyone thinks that deal is imp for PAK only NOT FOR USA??? Every successful deal only happens when both parties got something .Coming to PAK point of view if they want to stay sure welcome as Taliban always said to them that deal imp for u we got whole time in the world u will come if not today than after few year but you will so endgame is clear.What worst US can do after blocking all these goodies for us ?as we already dont have it but survive and got few other options as our dear fellow @Caprxl explain beautifully in J 15 thread but what USA gonna loose??esp with this emerging new geo politics situation and having no saying in AFG matters which have one of largest untapped rare earth materials deposits and other minerals does US really wanna give it on platter to CHina to dominate world market supply ???For them also a lot riding on it

Pak may not go with the US but the US still needs Pak till November, 2020. Pak has this narrow window to milk the US, for whatever, even junk from AFG.

Now, those smart enough understand that it is only a matter of time before the US stops spares for F-16s. The best way to go forward for Pak is to get whatever upgrades and spares you can now. Secondly, go for LIFT to lower hours on F-16s. This will reduce spare parts usage.

 

[Caprxl]

Now why everyone thinks that deal is imp for PAK only NOT FOR USA??? Every successful deal only happens when both parties got something .Coming to PAK point of view if they want to stay sure welcome as Taliban always said to them that deal imp for u we got whole time in the world u will come if not today than after few year but you will so endgame is clear.What worst US can do after blocking all these goodies for us ?as we already dont have it but survive and got few other options as our dear fellow @Caprxl explain beautifully in J 15 thread but what USA gonna loose??esp with this emerging new geo politics situation and having no saying in AFG matters which have one of largest untapped rare earth materials deposits and other minerals does US really wanna give it on platter to CHina to dominate world market supply ???For them also a lot riding on it

We just need to play our cards right, just right & it can/should be fruitful for us not in just terms of materiel gains but having for influence in Afghanistan as well which is to protect our western border.

 

[Zulu]

And so far i must say our side is playing good Alhamdolillah

We just need to play our cards right, just right & it can/should be fruitful for us not in just terms of materiel gains but having for influence in Afghanistan as well which is to protect our western border.

 

[Khafee]

I agree 100%. I don't think we need to invade/conquer/annex Afghanistan. That land is not called graveyard of civilizations for nothing.
What needs to be impressed upon the Afghans is that prosperity of their people lies with harmonious living side by side with Pakistan and not by allying with India or Iran or any other foreign power. 20 years of massive American presence and billions of dollars pumped in and they are still in the same medieval time warp. A stable and secure Afghanistan would mean CPEC route can be extended to Central Asian Republics providing a route for them to export and import via Gwader. Afghanistan would benefit from transit fee initially and hopefully improved economic conditions will result in better opportunities for people. There is a saying "rising tide lifts all boats". That needs to be the cornerstone of our carrot and stick policy. Make it clear to them let bygones be bygones start fresh. If they still act villainous or claim areas upto Attock as part of Afghanistan, then Taliban will be the answer. In that case build a buffer in provinces adjacent to Pakistan and make sure no Anti Pak element can take root there. If clean collaboration happens then there is massive economic benefit for all.
We, Pakistanis also needs to learn from our mistakes. As you mentioned Ahmad Shah Masood was really treated shabbily by us. I was in Peshawar 83-87. Too young to grasp the dynamics at that time. But he was viewed with suspicion whenever he would come for support. Our fauji quarter master would not give him anything from the Saudi/Amreeki largesse. It is a miracle how he kept Soviets out of Panjsher. Obviously he remembered that when he came to power. So we also need to give up our in built prejudices and give them a chance with open hearts.
For me key would be economic prosperity. Once you have it -- Realpolitik kicks in
There will be agents who will stand in the way as they profit by a lawless and backward Afghanistan, they will need to be dealt with and anyone who shows AntiPak tendencies.

Brother, no prejudices, Northern Alliance ones were always difficult to deal with, and had a wrong inclination, hence why they were kept on a very tight leash.

 

[Zulu]

They were always and still like talking with them on totally diff wavelength but have to try thats the job of diplomacy to make military impossible to possible.If they bring Abdullah Abdullah soon in ISB consider it victory as it will directly increase our dealing power to other players, stable AFG is need of time for all major players of region (minus 1 of our neighbor and i m NOT talking about endians

Brother, no prejudices, Northern Alliance ones were always difficult to deal with, and had a wrong inclination, hence why they were kept on a very tight leash.

 

[Khafee]

This is a reply to your last paragraph. Do you realize who I am? What I am and what traditions i follow? What blood flows in my veins?

I of all people here understand them.

Bro, Pls calm down, and try and understand something. Afg is not an immediate threat, any unification would result in very serious backlash. So best bet is to support Afgh Taliban, let them consolidate their position, and turn them into a semi-autonomous region, where Pak looks after Defence and Foreign Policy only.

 

[Armchair]

I actually disagree. If US doesn't give it to Pakistan, they will give it to the northern alliance or take it back home. Northern alliance may sell, or simply end up trashing the equipment while fighting the taliban or due to bad maintenance. Then Pak would have to buy in the black market for hard currency, maybe 25% of the equipment it could have gotten for free, in dilapidated condition and with a lot of the higher tech equipment removed.

Was waiting for your reply to push conversation in proper direction
1)the junk US going to left one way or another Pakistan can pick through Taliban ,market dealers so its going to end in our hand.I rem back in 90's KPK police(NWFP than ) bought russian APC from private dealer so its not going to imapct much for deal
2)Trade as posted Qatar-PAK deals in AFG beneficial for both countries but to which extend its remain to be seen at the moment just an MOU
3)IN feb US trade secretary visited PAK but unsuccessful visit still waiting for some real deals
4)Now the ball again comes in military hardware .Reason to believe about local up gradation prog push by PAF that way less dependent on spares and have necessary training and tools to counter with it for future possibility of sanctions
5)Yes its best time to push Trump for somer eal result as his election nearer but in case if Joe Biden wins he also want US withdrawal but on diff conditions (tag u in previous post ) and everyone knows one US withdraw from AFG they are not coming back .Military deployment never an easy equation

Now why everyone thinks that deal is imp for PAK only NOT FOR USA??? Every successful deal only happens when both parties got something .Coming to PAK point of view if they want to stay sure welcome as Taliban always said to them that deal imp for u we got whole time in the world u will come if not today than after few year but you will so endgame is clear.What worst US can do after blocking all these goodies for us ?as we already dont have it but survive and got few other options as our dear fellow @Caprxl explain beautifully in J 15 thread but what USA gonna loose??esp with this emerging new geo politics situation and having no saying in AFG matters which have one of largest untapped rare earth materials deposits and other minerals does US really wanna give it on platter to CHina to dominate world market supply ???For them also a lot riding on it

 

[!eon]

There's no Northern Alliance any more.
Once, Northern Alliance is now combined under Afghan security forces (ANA, police etc). Northern warlords are generally without fangs and claws now, because their areas are being controlled by Taliban. Kunduz and its soundings for example.

Only problem in northern provinces (from Taliban and Pakistan perspective) is TTP/IS.

 

[Cookie Monster]

There's no Northern Alliance any more.
Once, Northern Alliance is now combined under Afghan security forces (ANA, police etc). Northern warlords are generally without fangs and claws now, because their areas are being controlled by Taliban. Kunduz and its soundings for example.

Only problem in northern provinces (from Taliban and Pakistan perspective) is TTP/IS groups.

It is just a term loosely used to describe the factions that oppose Afghan Taliban(whether militarily or politically or both). These factions are also generally anti Pak(bcuz Pak and Afghan Taliban are aligned). It's much easier to use the umbrella term to describe these factions...but u r right they don't exist as a cohesive group anymore.

 

[!eon]

It is just a term loosely used to describe the factions that oppose Afghan Taliban(whether militarily or politically or both).

Some people think of N.alliance that existed till 911 and a bit later in some areas. So, there should be no confusion.

These factions are also generally anti Pak(bcuz Pak and Afghan Taliban are aligned). It's much easier to use the umbrella term to describe these factions...but u r right they don't exist as a cohesive group anymore.

Pakistani Taliban (TTP) were created to give bad name to real Taliban movement and that is "Imarat e Islami Afghanistan".
During peak days of ISIS, TTP members joined IS/Daesh, but now, as tables have turned, they are again changing names to TTP sub-groups, mainly to show their relations with "Imarat e Islami Afghanistan", but there's no relation in reality. They have different paths at 180 degree.
TTP basically can work for any country/group, whoever pays better. Same you can't say for Afghan Taliban (Imarat e Islami Afghanistan).

 

[Zulu]

Taliban Stage a Major Attack, as Violence Intensifies in Northern Afghanistan
Insurgents bombed the entrance of an Afghan intelligence complex in a provincial capital, then stormed the offices in a sustained gun battle, killing at least 11.

Taliban Stage a Major Attack, as Violence Intensifies in Northern Afghanistan (Published 2020)

Insurgents bombed the entrance of an Afghan intelligence complex in a provincial capital, then stormed the offices in a sustained gun battle, killing at least 11.

www.nytimes.com

 

[TsAr]

Taliban Stage a Major Attack, as Violence Intensifies in Northern Afghanistan
Insurgents bombed the entrance of an Afghan intelligence complex in a provincial capital, then stormed the offices in a sustained gun battle, killing at least 11.

Taliban Stage a Major Attack, as Violence Intensifies in Northern Afghanistan (Published 2020)

Insurgents bombed the entrance of an Afghan intelligence complex in a provincial capital, then stormed the offices in a sustained gun battle, killing at least 11.

www.nytimes.com

Is this really the Taliban or someone else looking to sabotage the peace process?