Egyptian Mirage V Horus released after stiff opposition from India.

[TsAr]

question is, why is this American equipment so necessary for Pakistan at all?

given they are sanctionable and have operational restrictions ie F16C/D cant do deep attacks inside indian territory.

While on the otherhand, J10C/D is already at technological level of F16V, without any restrictions and even can be brought with full ToT.

In the end, we have to see our benefit, specially the industrial benefit over mere operational and human comfort since our pilots can be trusted as Good ones to say the least,

its not the weapon, but the man behind the weapon who makes the difference.

The man can only be as good as the weapon, I am have zero confidence in my weapon then I would not be able to perform to the best of my qualities as my mind would be diverted towards the weapon.

 

[Mingle]

LM would be in overdrive to lobby for the sale. They have a great relationship with PAF.
On the topic of Afghanistan, I do think thing there will not be 100% US withdrawal. It will keep some presence in the region. I also do not think US would want to totally disengage with Pakistan. That would be disastrous for them in the region. Part of the peace agreement with Taliban as I see it, include Pakistan having a guarantor role in Afghanistan so it doesn't slide back into the state it was and to negate Iranian influence as they try to fill the power vacuum.
What are you basing your feeling that sanctions are around the corner?

Another thing who will buy blk 70 now? I mean it's a cutting edge jet EU they moving to F35 Taiwan Morocco after them?? They have to churn out 300 planes I believe they will push pak with bigger pie since money is available to them by DOD they can extend line of credit to PAF I read tunisa, maybe Ethiopia but they Wont go big number ultimately Pak is theior trusted partner and have strong appitite for F-16 LM will push as many as they can to PAF that's why @Hodor was terming Indus vipers

 

[Cookie Monster]

LIFT is being looked at but with JFT around AND THE PERRINEAL CASH CONTRAINTS, PAF is possibly stretched between getting a dedicated LIFT or using JFT Bs as LIFT in spite of it not fulfilling the criteria.
A

If J15 and possibly even J10s are coming...while JF17 Block III will be going in production soon...and JF17B is being produced...
...this means a somewhat fast replacement of F7s.

While the pockets are being emptied in all these purchases...leaving hardly anything to procure a LIFT platform. I would say put the retired F7s in storage...and start cannibalizing them to keep the two seater F7s in great shape at all times(to reduce chances of accidents). PAF pilots were doing just fine without a dedicated LIFT platform so far...and if I recall F7s were being used to train pilots. So I would say just keep it going for a few more years.

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

Annexation of Afghanistan will solve their worries about radicalization and irans influence.

 

[Pakhtoon yum]

So how many of these birds are in pakistan right now?

 

[Counter-Errorist]

Banking on US policy based on Dem or Republicans is not meaningful or realistic. US interest is now in strengthening India, and not making India weaker by supporting Pakistan. Pakistan's chance was in AFG. AFG ends by November, if Trump is to be believed, with rapid draw-dawn of troops underway as we speak.

These are basic equations that everyone understands except Pakistanis... just like 1990s, when everyone was telling PAF there are serious concerns and US will delink any time. Still they gave their own precious money for F-16s then got charged for parking as well as sanctions.

Again, anyone in DC will tell you US is now focused on India and delinking from Pakistan. Yet, again my Pakistani brothers will ignore these things and live in their fantasy land dreaming of America and make up some strange arguments.

While China invests in Pak's infrastructure, US invests in giving education scholarships so that more America loving people are created, who will jump off any cliff and believe anything that keeps them in that fantasy land.

Then a Pressler like moment will again be repeated (repeated many times, since 1965). And again the same elite will come up with half baked ideas to push forward an agenda that will somehow keep them linked to the country they admire.

And again after Pressler the Pakistanis just kept waiting and waiting and hoping the good americans would do as they dreamt of in their fantasy land. "We too want to serve your wonderful agenda, please look at us".

But again, like the wife that believes her cheating husband, the wife will cry and makeup and keep believing in that fantasy...

Never, ever will they understand that CPEC is a threat for America, a direct threat to their hegemony. That supporting Pakistan is against their interest, both in terms of protecting India, and because of CPEC. It is now in US and Indian interest (perhaps even Iran's) to destabilize Pakistan. To find some way to cut off CPEC through GB or Baluchistan.

They will not understand that it is traditional Western policy to use India against China. There are books written and many papers written about this policy going back 150 years. The thesis of the British was that China was too strong and too powerful to fight, and only by gaining India was it possible to break China. This was their successful strategy then, and it is now.

All that I have written is not necessary to write for anyone informed and educated, but needs to be written fruitlessly because many Pakistanis are so enamoured by the West that they have severe blind spots and unable to see anything outside what they want to see.

US leaving Afghanistan opens up a power vacuum there. US prefers Indian control over anyone else's, but India has failed spectacularly enough in Afghanistan to give up that idea altogether. The next 3 candidates are Pakistan, Iran and Russia. Pakistan is naturally preferred over the other two simply because our democracy and economy ensures we're easier to control, and that we can be pressured by proxy when required - GCC, IMF.

Any attempts by India to take over GB drastically increases the risk of a nuclear winter. China has also mitigated that move with deeper integration with our armed forces, loudly signalling that any such move will be met with a counter-move by China. Galway Valley is an example of its commitment.

The best case scenario for the US is India invading and annexing GB all the way to Chitral - cutting off CPEC and giving it direct access to Afghanistan. But unfortunately for them, they will need to shoot for the second best scenario - an India capable of withstanding a two-front war and keeping Pakistan linked enough to sustain its influence over Afghanistan.

Also remember that CPEC is just one element of OBOR. It's primary objective is to secure flow of oil from GCC. US can counter that at its source by incentivizing the suppliers to work against China.

 

[AliYusuf]

US is not leaving Afghanistan completely. It is going to stay there in my opinion, with a reduced force. It is creating conditions in favor for that. That is why they cannot completely alienate Pakistan.

 

[Araz]

question is, why is this American equipment so necessary for Pakistan at all?

given they are sanctionable and have operational restrictions ie F16C/D cant do deep attacks inside indian territory.

While on the otherhand, J10C/D is already at technological level of F16V, without any restrictions and even can be brought with full ToT.

In the end, we have to see our benefit, specially the industrial benefit over mere operational and human comfort since our pilots can be trusted as Good ones to say the least,

its not the weapon, but the man behind the weapon who makes the difference.

There are 2 or 3 reasons.
Firstly PAF has active inventory and infrastructure making it logical to buy more 16s.
Secondly PAF wants mature tech to counter the Rafale buy and it seems the only logical answer is F16 within our constraints both time and money wise.
We are within a decade of producing our own 5th generation plane. Why do we want to add another 4th generation plane holding us ransom till the next 30 years.
I would not believe Chinese propaganda about J10 as PAF seems remarkably calm about the prospects of not procuring J10s. This ether means we are playing some big game or we are not interested. The latter will need to be answered and the most likely one would be we will induct block 3 and then assess what ks needed and how to get it. It is interesting that no other nation has bought J10 either.
A

 

[Khafee]

There are 2 or 3 reasons.
Firstly PAF has active inventory and infrastructure making it logical to buy more 16s.
Secondly PAF wants mature tech to counter the Rafale buy and it seems the only logical answer is F16 within our constraints both time and money wise.
We are within a decade of producing our own 5th generation plane. Why do we want to add another 4th generation plane holding us ransom till the next 30 years.
I would not believe Chinese propaganda about J10 as PAF seems remarkably calm about the prospects of not procuring J10s. This ether means we are playing some big game or we are not interested. The latter will need to be answered and the most likely one would be we will induct block 3 and then assess what ks needed and how to get it. It is interesting that no other nation has bought J10 either.
A

J10 could be the ultimate mirage replacement, what do you say?

 

[Scorpio]

J10 could be the ultimate mirage replacement, what do you say?

Yes sir it will be, specially for Pakistan and additional role will be alternative of f16 on need basics

 

[Wingless]

There are 2 or 3 reasons.
Firstly PAF has active inventory and infrastructure making it logical to buy more 16s.
Secondly PAF wants mature tech to counter the Rafale buy and it seems the only logical answer is F16 within our constraints both time and money wise.
We are within a decade of producing our own 5th generation plane. Why do we want to add another 4th generation plane holding us ransom till the next 30 years.
I would not believe Chinese propaganda about J10 as PAF seems remarkably calm about the prospects of not procuring J10s. This ether means we are playing some big game or we are not interested. The latter will need to be answered and the most likely one would be we will induct block 3 and then assess what ks needed and how to get it. It is interesting that no other nation has bought J10 either.
A

Assalamoalaikum.
First of all, glad to see you here!
If we value the words of the ex air chief for his wish for 400 aircrafts for PAF, then let's see what we will have as per current plans inshaaAllah in near future.
188 JF-17s in various configurations.
75 F-16s.
60 + mirages.
50+ F-7 PGs.
That makes about 375 or so aircrafts.
Now, we have to retire mirages immediately.
By the time they are retired, F-7PGs and our jordanion and 80s era F-16s will also need to be retired. The only 18 block 52+ F-16s and the ones we received from US navy will stay inshaaAllah.
Now, for a bit longer term, if we plan to replace the numbers of our older F-16s and F-7PGs with 5th or 6th generations fighter, then it leaves us with our current immediate requirement to replace 60+ mirages and a further need for around 25 or so aircrafts to raise the number to 400 aircrafts
What options realistically do we have as per our economic conditions?
Acquire older F-16s.
Acquire more mirages from any where or zero the airframes.
Increase the planned number of JF-17s.
It can be the combination of all the three.
For stealth generation, we have options of AZM and J-31/J-35.
For example, if we went for more F-16s and JF-17s and J-31/J-35, I am afraid we will lose AZM forever which should never be the case.
But if we are not going for J-31/J-35, then by only JF-17s and F-16s, we are in trouble!
JF-17s design has definitely its own limitations as it was designed for keeping specific roles of a lighter fighter in mind
With F-16s, First of all, not only the number of used F-16s available for us is limited but also they have limited airframe/engine hours life left. Plus, we cannot integrate whatever we want like we played with mirages.
But let's say, we do manage 400 aircrafts with more JF-17s and F-16 for time being (plus, the F-7PGs), with future plans to replace the number of F-7PGs and older F-16s first and then newer F-16s and JF-17s later on, I ask myself again and again, is it enough against IAF to mount such a pressure to take back IOK (and not just to defend our current motherland)?
The answer comes always NO.
In my opinion, instead of building up used F-16s, let's try to procure the 8 F-16s held up by congress, upgrade them and the 18 F-16 block 52s , plus, the one we received from US navy, add one more squadron of JF-17s to planned 188 target and acquire around 3 squadrons of any aircraft of 4th/4.5th generation the CHINESE ARE GOING TO OPERATE FOR NEXT 30 YEARS. Leave open the place for stealth aircraft as it will make PAF to push AZM more and more forward and will try its best to make it a succes inshaaAllah.
I don't find anyone coming for our help in case of war WITH F-16s, JF-17s are used by only us.
The only help we can have is to receive aircrafts from china in case of war to be only used by our own pilots and that is only possible if we induct and integrate any aircraft which the chinese will be actively flying.
That's my whole point to go for J-10/15/16 for strategic reason and that's the only plan where I may feel releived with 400 aircrafts against a meaningful offense against IAF.

 

[Cookie Monster]

gen zia used to say that afghanistan is pakistan's fifth province.

He probably meant it in regards to how much sway Pak had over it(during that time)...creating Mujahideen and what not. The pro Pak sentiment was at its height among most Afghans at the time...
...which allowed a great deal of control.

I think he meant it in that sense. For the deep state to "want" or "consider" to annex Afghanistan...I've never seen any action on Pak's part that would even hint at such a thing. Even after USSR lost...and the Mujahideen tried to form a government...
...the moment it fell apart and infighting ensued...Pak went in to "mediate" some sort of a power sharing plan between them.

 

[Araz]

J10 could be the ultimate mirage replacement, what do you say?

It could be but the main question is whether PAF wants to replace the Mirage. So far from the vibes in PAF they want the M3/5s to soldier on till the 30s. The reason is a fast and cheap platform used in ground attack role where the likelihood is that there will be high attrition rate. Do you want to put a 60 million dollar fighter in that role or a 2 million dollar one. With precision strikes being made from longer distances with REKs, CMs and H weapons where do you see the role for the J10? Please also look at the time and cost of integration of hardware manpower development and then tell me is it really worth it getting the J10. I see the 16s taking over once the M3s go and then Azm will take over.
This is what makes sense to me. I have never claimed to know much other than what I have read or heard but currently the J15 makes the least sense followed closely by j10. The most likely buy for PAF will be the 16s of the US coffers are opened. If the PAF can get the Chinese to blino first in the 16 vs 10 game then it maybe that J10 comes but if it does not, at least I wont be shedding any tears.
A

 

[Khafee]

It could be but the main question is whether PAF wants to replace the Mirage. So far from the vibes in PAF they want the M3/5s to soldier on till the 30s. The reason is a fast and cheap platform used in ground attack role where the likelihood is that there will be high attrition rate. Do you want to put a 60 million dollar fighter in that role or a 2 million dollar one. With precision strikes being made from longer distances with REKs, CMs and H weapons where do you see the role for the J10? Please also look at the time and cost of integration of hardware manpower development and then tell me is it really worth it getting the J10. I see the 16s taking over once the M3s go and then Azm will take over.
This is what makes sense to me. I have never claimed to know much other than what I have read or heard but currently the J15 makes the least sense followed closely by j10. The most likely buy for PAF will be the 16s of the US coffers are opened. If the PAF can get the Chinese to blino first in the 16 vs 10 game then it maybe that J10 comes but if it does not, at least I wont be shedding any tears.
A

F16's taking over from Mirage 3's only in the ADA role. What about ground attack? A/c's have structural lives, which can be increased, but ultimately PAF does need a replacement, and there is no way a J10C costs $60m.

As to your statement: " time and cost of integration of hardware manpower development " This is the cost of doing business effectively. If you keep cutting corners, sooner or later it will come back to bite you in the rear.

What PAF pulled of last feb, may not alwasy be possible, and I'm sure they are prepared for it.

 

[Khafee]

Chalo aisa he sahi. But let me elaborate.
Scenario 1. You get in to Afganistan . Your requirement will be 100K soldiers and what will you achieve. You alienate the Taliban and the Pushtuns and they start struggling against your forces. India steps in with a propaganda warfare with the famous line of the Punjabis having no respect for the Pushtons. Before you know it you have an uprising in Afghanistan against you and also unrest in the PK. Instead of embroiling the Indians into a two front war you will have gotten yourself involved in one. I Do not think personally that interference from PA would be appreciated in any quarter in Afghanistan.
Scenario B. You get the Taliban to form government in the pushtun controlled area of Afghanistan and leave the NA areas near Afghanistan for the moment. Whether this is a coalition governement or Taliban govtt needs to be seen. You will have a relatively pliant government that will atleast consider your arguments for good governance. Being land locked they will need the PA/Pakistan help with supply of grain and other commodities. The Afghans in Pakistan can then be slowly "repatriated" which will lighten the burden on our exchequer. If you don't touch the NA and leave them to fester in their own areas, possibilities are.
A. They will live there with the support of Iran. As your issues with Iran resolve(relatively at least) you MAY BE able to instigqte the Afghans to accept the NA in a power sharing formula . The best solution is to get involved in the road into CA where the afghans can provide the manpower and once through to Pakistan it can be linked to CPEC. This seems tocbe the only way to prosperity in Afghanistan.
B. To be able to control the Afghan pushtons they will have to attack the Pushtons. If you look at their fighting modalities they will have to do a frontal attack which they have never been able to do. This will invariably fail and they will have to sort it out with the Pushtons or be destroyed.
In short I dont see any situation where you will meddle with Afghans and come out on top with a viable solution.
The Afghans need to be left to find their own solution and NA will eventually have to find a solution by talking. Even if they want to fight they dont command enough strength to control Afghanistan on their own. There may be other ways in which Iran can be nudged into seeing reason.
A

IA once I am free I will reply in detail, but any solution in Afgh is not possible without the approval of the Taliban. They have to be on board, otherwise it will be very difficult.

@Pakhtoon yum & @Cookie Monster have some good ideas